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Employment enters weakest period since the Global Financial Crisis with the number of filled jobs down 0.5% on the same time a year ago

Economy / news
Employment enters weakest period since the Global Financial Crisis with the number of filled jobs down 0.5% on the same time a year ago
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The number of filled jobs in New Zealand fell for the fourth consecutive month in July, according to data from Statistics NZ.

The figures strongly point to further rises in the unemployment rate.

Stats NZ's Monthly Employment Indicators (MEI) release showed that on a seasonally adjusted basis there was a 2,975 (0.1%) drop in the total number of jobs in the country to 2.37 million.

ASB senior economist Mark Smith noted that employment was 0.5% lower than this time last year, "the weakest since the GFC [Global Financial Crisis], with the July level 1.1% below March 2024 peaks".

This is the first time since the GFC that this data series has recorded four consecutive months of falls on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The MEI figures are not directly comparable with the unemployment figures that are sourced from Stats NZ's Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) - but they do tend to be a good forward indicator.

Unemployment as at the June quarter was 4.6%, having risen increasingly swiftly from its cyclical low of 3.2%. The Reserve Bank's forecasting that in this current quarter unemployment will rise to 5.0% and it expects it to peak at 5.5% next year.

In its MEI release for July Stats NZ noted that the drop in filled jobs was across all age groups, but it made reference to the softness in employment for the young and said that in the three month period to July 2024 among the young age brackets:

  • 15 to 24-year-olds, down 10,840 jobs (3.1%)
  • 25 to 34-year-olds, down 10,056 jobs (1.8%)
  • 35-year-olds and over, down 7,375 jobs (0.5%).

Filled jobs for 15 to 24-year-olds have been decreasing on an annual basis since August 2023, and the 25 to 34-year-olds began showing annual decreases from May 2024.

"Business demand for labour has weakened over the past year and the younger age groups can be the most affected by supply and demand shifts in the labour market," Stats NZ's business employment insights manager Sue Chapman said.

In July 2023, one-third of all 15 to 34-year-olds in filled jobs were in retail trade, accommodation and food services, or construction industries. While these industries were down over 18,000 filled jobs annually, the largest decreases across the 15 to 34-year-olds in the year to July 2024 were:

  • accommodation and food services, down 6,841 jobs (6.7%)
  • construction, down 6,460 jobs (7.2%)
  • administrative and support services, down 5,806 jobs (12.7%).

Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said job losses are now "becoming apparent across many industries".

"Manufacturing, construction and retail have seen extended declines over the last year, but they are increasingly being joined by a range of services sectors. Healthcare, public administration and finance are among the few remaining sources of growth," he said.

"Even if we see some flattening-off in the jobs figures in the months ahead, the soft starting point for the September quarter means that we’re likely to see some weak results overall in the HLFS. We’re currently forecasting a rise in the unemployment rate from 4.6% to 5.0% in the September quarter."

ASB's Smith said he continues to expect the labour market to "progressively loosen" heading into 2025, with the balance of power to progressively move in favour of employers.

"The primary driver is expected to be the weaker demand for labour, with anaemic economic activity over 2024.  Pressures on profitability are also expected to significantly constrain future rises in employment and wages, with the labour hoarding of 2022/23 increasingly likely to give way to labour shedding. 

"Our expectation is that the NZ unemployment rate will continue to head higher, moving well above 5% by the end of 2024 and likely peaking at around 5½% in mid-2025.  Forward indicators – job advertising and surveyed employment intentions – point to further retrenchment in hiring."

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88 Comments

The young getting whacked, as usual. 
And more than 80,000 young kiwis leaving school / university in 3 months looking for work….

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ASB's Smith said he continues to expect the labour market to "progressively loosen" heading into 2025, with the balance of power to progressively move in favour of employers.

I have more faith in Mr Smith's vision then the BNZ guy with the Magic 8 ball.

 

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. dp

 

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Youth rates are too high. They effectively are making youth unemployable as they cannot deliver enough value that justifies employing them.

Let the local mechanic employee Billy at $10 an hour to sweep the floor , make the  tea, clean the cars and get the spare parts, give him some experience at working and then see where it leads.

But instead, we say no - yo are not getting employed because you don't add value.

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Had this discussion last night. Minimum rate is $23 which makes it really hard to get teenaged their first work experience. 
 

It’s just too much for roles like shelf stackers etc. all those first jobs etc.

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Don't you mean $18.52 hr? 

The starting-out wage applies solely to workers aged between 16 and 19 and who are entering the workforce for the first time. 

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6months at the start out rate then full adult minimum wage so still hard to justify vs someone who adds more value. Youth wage was always a good incentive for getting teens employed in low skilled roles.

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Why?  6 months work experience doesnt turn a 15 year old into an adult employee with 5 years experience of actually doing the job not just watching someone do it.  Training people takes years, not 6 months. 

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The problem is the private sector have been reluctant to bear the cost of training for decades....hence the skills shortage.

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The shelves are still getting stacked. Someone must be getting at least minimum wage for it.

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Not in my local supermarkets.  They have been half empty since covid, this seems to be the new normal along with signs explaining why product not available and limits on quantities that can be purchased.

 

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I haven't seen a fully stocked supermarket anywhere since the Covid debacle.  Possibly the person saying the shelves are getting stacked has been conditioned to think partly stocked shelves are "stocked".

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Stacking is  a fill in job.

I'm talking of the lost opportunity for these youth to work alongside carpenters, mechanics, plasterers, farm mangers, digger operators and so on. Jobs that are hands on but non academic people do really well at and can make great careers out of.

A youth justice advocate should take govt to court over it - it is stopping youth from getting a start in life. Why can't they offer their services at XX per hour?  The govt should butt out.

 

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"Stacking is a fill in job."

Agreed. It should be left to oldies.

(Disclosure: My last PAYE job was doing this. My wife said I needed the exercise. She was right. I lost weight and had a ball.)

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Shelf stacking absolutely still happens. 'Night Fill' used to be the term - not sure if its still used, but Countdown/Woolworths has moved much of it to after trading hours - typically a mob of what appear to be mostly indian-immigrants are brought in on a casual basis about 9pm each evening and they work overnight through to about 6am.

You can see the roles advertised on various 'gig' casual work-platforms - and because the supermarket supervisor roles are so heavily populated by the Indian community, most of the casuals taken on are the same... 
 

Its possible that the same blokes morph ... Read more

Shelf stacking absolutely still happens. 'Night Fill' used to be the term - not sure if its still used, but Countdown/Woolworths has moved much of it to after trading hours - typically a mob of what appear to be mostly indian-immigrants are brought in on a casual basis about 9pm each evening and they work overnight through to about 6am.

You can see the roles advertised on various 'gig' casual work-platforms - and because the supermarket supervisor roles are so heavily populated by the Indian community, most of the casuals taken on are the same... 
 

Its possible that the same blokes morph into Uber driver during daylight hours...

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My daughter is shelf stacking at New world casual basis and its $23

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"Minimum rate is $23 which makes it really hard to get teenaged their first work experience. "

Not on my projects! I won't engage with any builder or tradie that isn't training our young people. It is a condition of my contracts.

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Sounds about as practical as a diversity quota.

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I guess you'd know.

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Yup. Often it's not practical to have staff based on client's wishes.

The best building crowds I know, don't always have apprentices.

The worst ones, always do (cheap labour).

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I do agree that the best work will be done by experienced workers. So you probably have seen the best work done by master builders and not apprentices. Very logical.

Plumbers, Electricians and Builders all charge $100+ per hour for experienced guys.

It does seem strange they cry about paying an apprentice $23-30 when even the apprentice gets charged out at $60 to learn how to do the job.

Plenty of jobs probably do require just an extra hand and one experienced tradie is enough or multiple experienced tradies and just a helping hand.

In these situations having that cheaper labour suits both the ... Read more

I do agree that the best work will be done by experienced workers. So you probably have seen the best work done by master builders and not apprentices. Very logical.

Plumbers, Electricians and Builders all charge $100+ per hour for experienced guys.

It does seem strange they cry about paying an apprentice $23-30 when even the apprentice gets charged out at $60 to learn how to do the job.

Plenty of jobs probably do require just an extra hand and one experienced tradie is enough or multiple experienced tradies and just a helping hand.

In these situations having that cheaper labour suits both the company and the client.

 

 

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If someone's actually overseeing an apprentice properly, then it's not the apprentice's wage that's the consideration, it's the lost productivity of that experienced person overseeing them.

What actually happens more commonly, is apprentices are used as cheap cannon fodder labour, often unsupervised.

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No sole contractors then huh?

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It's a messy situation.

Ideally, the best way to get competence and knowledge in a field is to shadow a master.

But, the nature of much construction today is it's paid by the metre, the schedule is always behind, and the program is compressed. Work gets done quickest and with least errors to correct by the experienced.

This isn't all construction, it's more doable if it's labour+materials work, with no set timeframe or liquidated damages.

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The bigger problem is all the Working Holiday Visa holders that have poured into the country since the borders opened - most arehappy to just work whereever and whenever for mininum wages, no guaranteed hours.  Then there are the international students that all have work rights - fake students that come here pretending to study at some crap college, while working 60 hours a week under the table for their local ethnic restaurant/liquor store/uber car rental.  

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" ...anaemic economic activity over 2024.  Pressures on profitability are also expected to significantly constrain future rises in employment.."

So use more and cheaper Public Debt to fix our neglected infrastructure etc. It's all been done before. Millions across the global economy given work to build dams; fix drains and rebuild hospital etc when the Private Sector can't or won't. And it's all doable IF we channel that new, cheaper Debt into the right areas - and not the obvious wrong one. If there's one thing an unemployed worker can't afford, it's the mortgage payment on another renter.

The days of using ... Read more

" ...anaemic economic activity over 2024.  Pressures on profitability are also expected to significantly constrain future rises in employment.."

So use more and cheaper Public Debt to fix our neglected infrastructure etc. It's all been done before. Millions across the global economy given work to build dams; fix drains and rebuild hospital etc when the Private Sector can't or won't. And it's all doable IF we channel that new, cheaper Debt into the right areas - and not the obvious wrong one. If there's one thing an unemployed worker can't afford, it's the mortgage payment on another renter.

The days of using Private Debt as a speculative tool to keep the economy afloat have to end. It's time we got back to work.

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Using public debt would be a good idea if we were not $10billion in deficit from last year with another near $10billion deficit coming this year - Public debt has been heading in the wrong direction since Covid. We have only just beaten inflation but interest rate cuts will come. Alas the goodtimes of government overspending have gone for a good while, especially bad for Wellington. We all need to be the adults we are and stand on our own feet as painful as that is for so many, incl me who is looking for work and currently watching Daytime ... Read more

Using public debt would be a good idea if we were not $10billion in deficit from last year with another near $10billion deficit coming this year - Public debt has been heading in the wrong direction since Covid. We have only just beaten inflation but interest rate cuts will come. Alas the goodtimes of government overspending have gone for a good while, especially bad for Wellington. We all need to be the adults we are and stand on our own feet as painful as that is for so many, incl me who is looking for work and currently watching Daytime Soap Operas....

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Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but have you seen how much the private debt "deficit" has grown by lately? Makes $10b look like a drop in the bathtub. If we actually had adults in the room, we'd be having a serious conversation about the use of private debt and the impending risk to our entire economy, but we aren't. We're bleating on about how private debt good, public deficit bad. All we have for the pile of $700b in private debt is the same houses we already had, plus some leaky ones, and now a sprinkling of ... Read more

Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but have you seen how much the private debt "deficit" has grown by lately? Makes $10b look like a drop in the bathtub. If we actually had adults in the room, we'd be having a serious conversation about the use of private debt and the impending risk to our entire economy, but we aren't. We're bleating on about how private debt good, public deficit bad. All we have for the pile of $700b in private debt is the same houses we already had, plus some leaky ones, and now a sprinkling of units and townhouses.

If you read this and then still propose that what we need more private debt, then god save this poor, poor country.

Step 1: House prices come down, the wealth effect reduces, trade deficit reduces. Stop buying crap we don't need.

Step 2: Tax on capital gains.

Step 3: Remove incentives and subsidies to speculate on existing assets, and funnel those into rebuilding, research and development.

Step 4: Run a fiscal deficit in place of a lower private debt balance sheet so long as our trade deficit/surplus allows.

We simply cannot rely on the private sector for anything positive, it all ends up as bets on capital gains. I'd rather my kids didn't inherit a TAB full of oldies spending all their money at the pokies thanks.

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My daughter is working at a restaurant as a gap year before Uni. They have just made 2 waitresses redundant. They had been working for quite a bit longer than my daughter, doing the same job for the same pay.  We make our own luck.

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I'm confused. Are you saying that all three would have kept their jobs if they had all 'made their own luck'?

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Or is he turning his nose up at someone being a service worker (long term)....?? I think we know that answer

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Wow, way to miss the point. 

The point being his daughter didn't get made redundant, but the other two did, in spite of them nominally being much more experienced.  Apparently the employer sees Yvils' daughter as adding more value to the business than the other two.  Ie She made her own luck.

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The other two should pull themselves up by their bootstraps.

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She was probably younger, thinner, better looking and had bigger you know whats than the two hags they let go.  Thats how hospo works.  

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Not relevant or asked for.

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K.W. has taken the black pill.

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Thanks Pragmatist, for getting the point of my post.

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Or perhaps you were deaf to theirs?

To explain, (I shouldn't need too!!!!) ...  Longer serving employees in the service sector have fewer prospects. Newer serving employees do ... and they'll work for less ... Because they treat the job as a stepping stone. Longer serving employees? Basically they have no such prospects.

Dog eat dog, ay, Yvil? That's what you support?

Was that the point of your post?

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That flew right over your head.

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A psychologist would say the point of the post was for Yves to talk about himself (again, but you knew that)… and how he and his family are winners in life by making their own luck

It’s an extension of his crack at everyone here without a green tick 24 hours ago… apparently everyone without one is a freeloader/hypocrite/needs to grow up/needs to man up/deserves bad karma/needs to stop the bs

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/129403/first-home-buyers-are-benefi…

There is the 'special breed' of interest.co readers who are commentators, and then there are the commentators who think they are special - good ol’ Yves

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Thanks my little stalker.

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Haha... no problem big Mr T.

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The longer they’re employed, the more likely they’re on a higher hourly rate hence the redundancies. You can’t make someone redundant based on performance. Sorry to burst your bubble. 

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You can't tell them that's why they got shitcanned, but if you think that doesn't factor into the employers decision I have a bridge you might be interested in.

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Re- read my post "doing the same job for the same pay".

I get it, I said something good about my family, so about myself by extension.  Therefore, I need to be shot down by the commentariat.

 

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Also "You can’t make someone redundant based on performance".  You clearly don't employ staff.  As a business owner, you will always get rid of underperforming staff ahead of good staff.  

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I think Ramparts meaning, legally, you can't make someone redundant based on performance.

Which is generally true. Although managing out an under performing staff member can be fairly arduous. So often there's a "restructure" instead.

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LOL.

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I've seen it more than once.

Although sometimes it can be political, rather than performance related 

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Well Rampart's "sorry to burst your bubble" part, makes it sound like he really believes that underperforming staff can't be made redundant.  Legally true, but thankfully not the case in the real world.

Imagine the following conversation:

"Look Mike, we really need you to stop making the same mistakes, we've shown you multiple times and we hope you can do …. (fill in the blank) properly next time.  Mike "forget about me trying, you can't fire me based on performance".

"Hi Jane, we have asked you multiple time if you could do the work at the same pace as your colleagues, we have ... Read more

Well Rampart's "sorry to burst your bubble" part, makes it sound like he really believes that underperforming staff can't be made redundant.  Legally true, but thankfully not the case in the real world.

Imagine the following conversation:

"Look Mike, we really need you to stop making the same mistakes, we've shown you multiple times and we hope you can do …. (fill in the blank) properly next time.  Mike "forget about me trying, you can't fire me based on performance".

"Hi Jane, we have asked you multiple time if you could do the work at the same pace as your colleagues, we have told you before that you take more than twice as long as the other workers doing the same job"   Jane: "Forget about it, you can't fire me based on performance".

How stupid is that?  And then we wonder why our businesses are not competitive.

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You’re confusing termination with redundancy. There is a process to let someone go due to poor performance which involves verbal and three written warnings and a whole different process to redundancy. You’re preaching to the choir though brother. I’ve employed 10+ young men over the last 5 years. It’s so frustrating. I wish as a business owner I could just make the call on who was and wasn’t the right fit for my company. 

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You know when you have to given someone more than one warning for sleeping at their desk

There's something a bit wrong with the system.

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I fell asleep at my desk once after returning from a holiday in the UK the day before.

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I do employ staff. I’m well versed in the redundancy process. I’ve got it wrong before and currently going through it again, with the help of legal aid. It’s an absolute minefield. Too much government involvement regarding how a private business should be able to run a productive company with high standards. No business wants to get rid of performing staff before I get labelled a horrible boss. You’re right Yvil, any employer will seek to offload the poor performing staff first. If they’re on a slightly higher pay rate, even 50c it makes it that much easier from a ... Read more

I do employ staff. I’m well versed in the redundancy process. I’ve got it wrong before and currently going through it again, with the help of legal aid. It’s an absolute minefield. Too much government involvement regarding how a private business should be able to run a productive company with high standards. No business wants to get rid of performing staff before I get labelled a horrible boss. You’re right Yvil, any employer will seek to offload the poor performing staff first. If they’re on a slightly higher pay rate, even 50c it makes it that much easier from a legal standpoint. 
 

Sounds like your daughter’s employer should technically be making them all redundant then they have to reapply for the same positions. That’s the proper legal avenue in this instance if you’re telling me the facts.

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Anyone tracking the data over the last year could have seen this coming. We have been tracking the GFC trend closely for that whole time, lagging behind the interest rate hikes like we always do. Worth noting that it is the private sector jobs disappearing quickly - we live in a consumer economy. 

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As much as it will frustrate many on here I really think that the printers will start roaring & rates will get slashed throughout ‘25, restrictions will get eased & they’ll do everything they can to get the consumer economy fired up…I might be wrong 🤷🏻‍♂️

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Yes but this conflicts with a wave of people wishing to realise their equity and retire. Younger generations do not earn enough nor pay enough rent to make everybody rich. Something will give out either this time or next.

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There's plenty of work out there for anyone who really wants a job. If they're looking hard [or smart] enough, they'll get one. It may not be a job for life, but that's a discussion for another day.

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That used to be the case, but I don't think it's true now.

If you try picking up work in an area you're not experienced in then you'll be competing with many other applicants who are already skilled in that area. And if you try picking up something for half your previous pay then employers see through that and know you'll leave as soon as the job market picks up.

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There's usually always work for a general labourer.

BUT

The work is often pretty hard going manual labour.

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I did many manual labour gigs while at university during the early 2010s - landscaping, construction, gardening, you name it.

I quickly realised how much of a sellers' market that was if you have good referrals who can vouch for your positive attitude and quality of work. I literally took a pay cut in my first year as a grad at a professional services firm after uni.

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"There's usually always work for a general labourer."

Usually always?

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Definitely maybe.

But never say never.

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I agree. There was an artificially inflated demand for workers across the board when there was all the cheap money sloshing around.

Comms had its moment during 2019-22; I remember an article reporting NZTA went from 35 comms FTEs to 100+ in just a matter of months. Not a peep out there for comms work and more get added to the redundancy list each quarter in the public sector.

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What do you mean by "comms"? Public relations?

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Yes, comms (communications) is public relations and engagement (Advisor-Comms-and-Engagement-PD-Jan22-v2.pdf (nzta.govt.nz)).

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They brought the external contractors in house as it was cheaper than paying contractor rates. Now they are back being contractors. No public savings. 

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This always gripes me, as if there's not a lot of jobs going, and someone has to get a job to put food on the table from circumstances outside of their making, then how do hey get a job if they consistently get told they are overqualified? I've met plenty of folk over the years who have been banking managers etc who gave it all up for a more simple life and job where they are passionate about as well. Perhaps it is all in the art of the interview.

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Yes, if you are experienced, single, commitment-free, willing to sleep in your car, etc, I am sure you can find work easily. It might not be 40 hours of work per week, sometimes it might only be 10, but at least it's work, right?  

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I think if you've got a family

That should be even more motivation to do whatever it takes.

Having a tenure like job is preferable, but not a guarantee.

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I think if you've got a family

That should be even more motivation to do whatever it takes.

Your opinion is noted.

(You are basically giving license to screw workers who have families. I suspect you don't feel that way but what you wrote is consistent with the usual drivel we get from you.)

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Men with families earn 50% more than those that don't.

They're more inclined to have to find a job, even if the circumstances aren't ideal (i.e. they have to travel for work). This is actually much of the world's workforce. Why would we be special?

A single dude with no responsibilities can be more picky.

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Hmm. Is that 50% all else considered - age, location, profession etc? I definitely waited until I was earning well before having kids.

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I had kids very young and very broke. Now in the top few percent of income earners. Having kids was definitely a motivator to not be lazy and instead work and study my ass off. Being young meant I still had energy to go outside and kick a ball around with them whenever they wanted. My 40s will be an early retirement from parenting, not holding my hopes up for grandkids any time soon.

As mentioned on another post, most I know my age are just starting to have kids and not intending on having more than one. Successful professionals, but ... Read more

I had kids very young and very broke. Now in the top few percent of income earners. Having kids was definitely a motivator to not be lazy and instead work and study my ass off. Being young meant I still had energy to go outside and kick a ball around with them whenever they wanted. My 40s will be an early retirement from parenting, not holding my hopes up for grandkids any time soon.

As mentioned on another post, most I know my age are just starting to have kids and not intending on having more than one. Successful professionals, but it's too expensive.

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This was also me.

If not for kids, I'd probably have been sitting around in my undies playing videogames into my early 30s.

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 Is that 50% all else considered - age, location, profession etc? 

That's at the upper income bracket. The amount drops as the income brackets do. It's higher in the US than the UK.

But fairly consistently fathers earn more than single dudes, like for like.

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Men with families earn 50% more than those that don't.

Painter making more shit up, don't you get tired of talking absolute bollocks. 

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The fatherhood bonus has been a known and tracked phenomenon for decades.

Conversely, women with children earn less than those that don't.

Not everything true is popular, and not everything popular is true.

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There's plenty of work out there for anyone who really wants a job. If they're looking hard [or smart] enough, they'll get one. It may not be a job for life, but that's a discussion for another day.

Did you miss the bit where the RBNZ decided to increase interest rates to create a recession to increase unemployment? 

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The country imports 10s of thousands of temporary workers a year, and it's still not enough.

There are those jobs at the very least.

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So. When the economy 'stalls', Stagflation and GDP is an anaemic 0.2% along with high unemployment at the beginning of the Recession cycle...there's more destruction to come.

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Yep. I reckon too - but house prices up though! /sarc

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"Stagflation"?

Say what? When? Did I miss that?

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What happens when someone in a dual (low income ) household looses their job? There is still too much household income for the now unemployed person to access any unemployment  benefits. So the household will quickly figure out that their situation will be better overall if they are both unemployed and they go the state for the max entitlements available and then try and pickup work/hours that will pay them up to the abatement threshold.

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I suppose that's not necessarily a bad thing as the government wants a certain level of unemployment, or so I am told. I wouldn't begrudge them.

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Hey David! Thanks so much for calling out youth unemployment.

The best performing economies in the world ensure youth unemployment is kept low.

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There is plenty of work that young people could be doing, either after school hours, in the weekends or during the holidays.

The sort of things that many of us may have done years ago - like working part-time hours at the Servo, the local supermarket, washing cars at a yard, cleaning commercial/industrial premises etc

But the last Govt has pushed the minimum pay rate to the point where its expected to able to support an adult to pay for accommodation and raise a family on, so those sorts of roles have become fulltime roles for adults. 

Adding 10days sickleave for part-timers, who ... Read more

There is plenty of work that young people could be doing, either after school hours, in the weekends or during the holidays.

The sort of things that many of us may have done years ago - like working part-time hours at the Servo, the local supermarket, washing cars at a yard, cleaning commercial/industrial premises etc

But the last Govt has pushed the minimum pay rate to the point where its expected to able to support an adult to pay for accommodation and raise a family on, so those sorts of roles have become fulltime roles for adults. 

Adding 10days sickleave for part-timers, who might only do a day or two in a calendar week, has also made taking them on tremendously expensive.

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