The number of people arriving in New Zealand on work visas continues to steadily climb back towards pre-Covid levels.
The latest figures from the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment show 18,627 people arrived in NZ on work visas in October this year, following 19,533 arrivals in September and 17,436 in August.
After falling away to just a few hundred a month during between April 2020 and March 2022 due to pandemic travel restrictions, the number of arrivals recovered quickly. They rose to several thousand a month between April and August 2022, passing 10,000 a month from September 2022, and remaining above 15,000 a month for all of this year.
In the 12 months to end of October this year 202,770 people arrived in NZ on work visas. That is, however, still significantly below the 242,931 that arrived pre-Covid in the year to October 2019. (See graph below for the annual trends since 2014).
The flow looks unlikely to slow with 19,194 work visa applications approved in October, following on from 17,958 approvals in September, suggesting arrival numbers are likely to stay around existing levels for the next few months at least.
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42 Comments
Where do all these overseas workers live?
No wonder the housing shortage is intensifying.
TTP
They live 4 to a bedroom, 12 to a 3 bedroom house. While a family of four lives in a motel while waiting for KO to build them a "warm and dry" house.
No they don't.
See my post below.
(Golly people talk a lot of crap in the comments. Mainly to push their ill considered and frequently incorrect biases ...)
Not sure it is Hyperbole.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/immigration-nz-carries-out-six-inspection…
Yeah they do.
My sample size of one - I randomly visited a place in Takanini over the weekend. 6 Priuses parked outside and 6 young-middle aged migrant chaps all living there. It was a regular 1950s 4-bedroom house. Not sure if they had partners & kids there too.
Luckily we’ve had tonnes of townhouses built this year. Rental Listings still high for Auckland on TradeMe
But 2024 will be a different story. Still seeing some horrifically high quotes in terms of construction costs. Combined with the cost of finance, the sector will come to a screaming halt.
Mainly in "long stay" suites in hotels. These are like 2-4 bedroom apartments with kitchens, laundries and 1-2 bathrooms. Rates are cheaper than individual rooms and can be negotiated by length of stay. There are actually quite lot in Auckland. And some are really, really nice in places you'd not expect. Usually booked months in advance albeit guests may get shuffled around on occasion.
Some bigger organisations that have workers coming and going regularly rent places long term. And some even buy them outright. And AirBnB is now a source too.
(Yes, I have friends.)
In support of this comment our granny flat has recently been put on AirBnB and our current guests arrived from Iran - married medical technicians with one about to start a scholarship PhD in her medical area at Auckland Uni. Never been to NZ so made a 3 week booking in my AirBnB. They are now looking for permanent accommodation - their target a one bed apartment at $450pw. I asked my contacts and city apartment buildings that had plenty of empty places last year are now full. Unusual for this time of year. All those Winz tenants in the city since Covid will progressively be squeezed out.
You do need to be careful with booking stays longer than 28 days through AirBnB as if you do that neither of the two AirBnB exemptions from the Residential Tenancies Act will apply (the one for the guest using the property for the purpose of a holiday, the other for being a temporary residence of less than 28 days). The Tenancy Tribunal has held that a 6 week rental of a property was a valid lease for the purposes of the RTA.
There was a net inflow of people in October of 80,000. Currently 43,600 net inflow for November to date.
There are now 175,000 people in NZ on work visas, which is the same as Sept 2018 levels. In addition to those on work visas there are all the accompanying family members - the parents, partners and children. These people all need to be housed, schooled, and provided medical care. And they can't buy a house to live in, so they are all competing for rentals.
Is anyone tracking the number of people coming in on permanent residency visas? Since immigration is now handing that out to all and sundry as well as rubber stamping people's work visas.
"There was a net inflow of people in October of 80,000"
No there wasn't, stop spreading fake news. That would equate to an annualised net flow of almost 1 million people. Perhaps you don't understand the word "net" ?
It is still a lot no matter what the true figures are, especially at a time when unemployment appears to be on the rise; or is this another effect of the climbing net migration numbers.
I believe it's from the straight entry/exit border data, so includes tourists which are presumably a net contributor at the moment.
I think the data means exactly what the original post says it does, but perhaps you are misinterpreting? The data is freely available if you want to double check
https://www.customs.govt.nz/about-us/statistics/passenger-statistics/
Yes, it does include short term visitors, but those only here for a holiday will net themselves out of the picture when they leave, usually within 8-14 days (an 11 day stay is the median length of visit). So over the months you see the number of those that havent left. October isnt a particularly busy tourist season either, its neither the winter ski season or the summer holiday season. Its slowed down somewhat in November, the last 5 days have actually been a negative flow (for the first time in a while).
Why so aggressive?
Data is in StatsNZ page. I just had a look myself and October is net 80K inflow of people. KW is correct on that statement.
551,202 arrived and 470,571 departed.
Though not all the 80k for October will be attributed to net migration in October as it is coming into NZ summer and there will be an increased number of short-term movements. Hence why KW is asking about working and permanent visas.
Net net inflow in September closely aligned with StatsNZ months net migration of 8k
Counting immigrants is not easy. In the past it was defined as a stay of over one year so all those useful Pacifica fruit pickers who come to work but just stay for harvest time were not counted but students from the EU on working-holiday visas staying for 113 months and with zero intention of staying were counted. Baffled by stats - its similar to a person absolutely desperate to work who can only find 1 hour a week is defined as employed!
Why would you annualise the number? The data varies from month to month, so the idea of extrapolating one months data for an entire 12 month period doesnt make any sense. During March to June the flow was negative each month (with a total loss of 107,874 people) - but nobody would have suggested annualising that either. For the year to date the net inflow of people is 131,503.
The passenger numbers do correlate quite nicely with the rental market vacancy rates and rent hikes though. Rents flat line during a period of population outflow and rise during a period of inflow (with a lag of about a month). So my prediction is that the rental price index is going to be a shocker come November.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1315373/new-zealand-monthly-rent-pr…
Huge immigration at the same time we have interest rates making it too costly to build, what could go wrong? And the new government wants significantly more immigration...
Meanwhile just across the ditch they are having big issues with this strategy, but she'll be right mate.
Heavy rates of immigration are unpopular in Canada, UK and some EU countries. Politicians don't listen so they end up with outsiders taking over - Trump being an example.
Like making a cheese sauce - slowly whisk in the milk and it is wonderful or pour the milk in fast and it turns lumpy. Nothing to do with Xenophobia to milk.
In 3 years time when rents are stupidly high and homelessness and crime is at a new high, will the coalition be re-elected? Might not have been a good election to win, especially when you intend to make the existing problems worse.
Rent raises will lead to higher house prices obviously. Which is what the voters want it seems. Social effects from this are of lower importance - as long as the HPI goes up, thats all that really matters.
If this govt collapses because of the combination of severe economic recession and high immigration then it will be not be re-elected but those protest votes will end up in two opposite groups loosely called far-left and far-right - it may make for ugly politics. The gently amusing politics of the last election are preferable.
Excuse my ignorance, are these people in addition to the +119,000 net migrants for the year to September?
"The year to" means "the 12 month up to". So if there were 119.000 in the year to September, you'd have substract October 2022 and add October 2023 to get the "year to October 2023" figures. I hope that answers your question
Ni hao ma, namaste, bula, goode morgen to all our new arrivals
Ask the Greens how they are off setting the carbon - or doesn't this count?
It's not the carbon - it's the resource demand beyond fossil energy availability - a state of play we will see well before 2050 (physical cessation) and maybe tomorrow (contention).
x fossil energy, we will struggle to support 2 million.
Work it out for yourself - this (and the last Government is equally as guilty as this one will be) level of population is unsustainable. Let alone adding to it.
Madness.
Of course. But I would like to see the Greens (and others) asked how they reconcile the drive to reduce emissions, but at the same time importing more emitters?
If these new arrivals were instead tonnes of coal, all hell would break loose.
Welcome all.
I hear those whakairo are coming down.
So juicing up the housing shortage, downward pressure on wages (lower productivity) and longer unemployment lines as it trends up? What monkeys are letting all these people in?
You aint seen nothing yet. The Coalition of Chaos are stepping further on the gas pedal. Removing median wage requirement from supposedly skilled migrants and letting in their parents.
A bit over a year ago I suggested to someone renting in Auckland that they should try to secure a 3-4 year fixed term rental agreement and they said "why, there are lots of places?"
Their rents have gone up $150pw since then. $100 was the catch-up back to pre-covid, $50 is inflation hitting rents and the housing squeeze.
As long as they don't want to live in houses I welcome them to New Zealand.
Roads?
Maybe tent city’s is the answer, I know in some areas of Auckland 2 or 3 families living in one house six cars outside because people living in garage. This is just the way it is right now hopefully the government will see what this is doing to the country many people living in cars vans as just cannot afford rent crime and social unrest is first signal which is already happening. I think government will rethink immigration and working visas or they will have to build thousands of more social housing, more doctors nurses hospitals teachers schools at the moment it’s becoming very overloaded system like having to wait week to see doctor.
It's a very different perspective when you own 7 houses.
"" hopefully the government will see what this is doing to the country many people living in cars vans as just cannot afford rent crime and social unrest is first signal which is already happening."". The govt will see it and introduce compulsory parking fees and increase Rego by a factor of ten.
The immigration system is now so open to abuse. Immigration NZ is incapable of policing it and appears unwilling to do so - that seems to be a policy choice by the previous government and Immigration NZ management post covid.
Small business owners (e.g. horticultural subcontractors, nail salons, bakeries, restaurants, liqour retailers, etc.) have been able to sponsor up to 5 overseas works on work visas into NZ with minimal or no qualifications or experience (or it can be faked). Some employers charge workers a fee which is paid overseas so non-traceable (now a growth industry in NZ). The worker can then be exploited because they are complicit in paying the fee, particularly where they are the same ethnicity. The worker stays silent because they are desperate to stay or will accept exploitation until they get a residency visa (e.g. employee works 7 days but paid for 6, or employee paid partly under the table so employer reduces holiday pay liability and tax deductions). Then partners and children follow. Is also a backdoor way to sponsor/import relatives and friends from home countries.
Having recently experienced a migrant exploitation case up close, I get the impression this behaviour is widespread among certain types of small businesses in the migrant community. How much might this contribute to the recent arrivals?
In Dec 2016 prof Stringer of Auckland Uni published a report on worker exploitation. The report in the newspaper had the title "No sex, no Visa". It was the reported comment of an employer to a 31 year old female Indian employee.
And our new govt is acting. It is slashing the number employed by MBIE.
It seemed to go pear-shaped very quickly. There was huge media reporting of small business and farming sectors unable to get staff which put immense pressure on INZ who were desperately backlogged in terms of processing. So the panicked government (with poll after poll eating away at their majority) said don't bother processing - just open the flood gates via this new Accredited Employer mechanism. No wonder the scams took off like wildfire.
Meanwhile, Nat/ACT were campaigning big on relaxing immigration requirements at a time when Labour had already opened the flood gates and lost control. In other words, a policy platform was written by them to solve a problem that (in terms of sheer numbers) no longer existed. But those sheer numbers let in aren't heading to the Wairarapa (or you name it anywhere else) to milk cows.
It's an almighty (starts with) cluster and you can fill in the blank.
And we ain't seen nothin' yet. They'll never get on top of ringing every one of the tens of thousands of scammed foreigners prior to their departure to say "don't come" - and how many they might ring do you think will take that advice. They know when they get here, they've got a legal right to enter.
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