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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; Rabobank raises TD rates, Barfoots September nearly at long-run average, QSBO points to softer labour market, NPLs rise, swaps up, NZD lower, & more

Economy / news
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; Rabobank raises TD rates, Barfoots September nearly at long-run average, QSBO points to softer labour market, NPLs rise, swaps up, NZD lower, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report so far today.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Rabobank raised their TD rates today, for all rates from 6 months to five years. That takes their six month rate to 6.05%, their nine month rate to 6.15%, and their one year rate to 6.30%.

HANGING IN THERE
Dominant Auckland realtor Barfoot & Thompson said its sales dipped in September to 825 from the 2023 high in August of 879. September 2023 was their second highest level since March 2022 (1180). The long run average for a September (since 2005) is 878 monthly sales. Their average selling price dropped by almost -$30,000 in September from August (down -9.1% from a year ago) while the median price increased by +$4500 (down -7.2% on the same basis). One in seven of their listings drop out and never sell, a fairly normal level.

GETTING BETTER
The latest survey of business opinion from NZIER shows fewer firms are feeling negative as confidence improves slowly. Firms are reporting that it is much easier to hire the right people. BNZ economists noted that "The clear message in today’s NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) is that the labour market continues to soften and aggressively so."

LOAN STRESS ARRIVES FOR SOME COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
Non-performing bank loans hit the $3 bln mark for first time in nearly three years in August. The latest RBNZ figures show while overall non-performing loans climbed in that month, household mortgage stress didn't get any worse. It was the big jump in commercial property non-performing bank loans that is moving the needle.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT GDT AUCTION
There is another full dairy auction tomorrow morning and it is hard to know what it will reveal. The core WMP price has tended to be higher in the full auction events than the specialist WMP Pulse events recently (in a view of the prior six events). Looking through this volatility, WMP has been rising since its August lows. Although its won't change the market much, another small rise will be better than otherwise, given WMP prices are currently -25% lower than year-ago levels.

LGFA BONDS YIELD 6%+
There was an LGFA tender today, with four maturities on offer totalling $150 mln. The April 2027 $40 mln was settled with a yield of 5.83% pa. The April 2028 went for 5.85%. The May 2031 for 6.07%, and the April 2033 for 6.16%.

TEMPERATURE RECORDS
NIWA says we have just had the warmest September on record. Temperatures were above or well above average in every region (nationwide we were +1.3°C above the average). The 29.6°C in Wairoa in the North Island was the highest anywhere for a September.

UP RECENTLY BUT STILL MUCH LOWER THAN A YEAR AGO
In Australia, new housing loans rose marginally in August from July, but remained a steep -12.3% lower than the same lending a year ago. Meanwhile, Australian building consent approvals for housing also rose in August from July, but these too remain lower than last year and by -9.4%.

RBA ABOUT TO REVEAL
The Reserve Bank of Australia board is meeting, its first with Michelle Bullock as Governor. We will cover the results of their delivebations when they are announced at 4:30 pm NZT.

SWAPS FIRMER AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are probably moving up again today, and as sharply as they did yesterday. But the real reaction will come at the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 5.72% and now +22 bps above the OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps from this time yesterday to 4.58%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.71%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps to 5.44%, and now equal to the earlier RBNZ fixing of 5.44% which was up an unusual +15 bps today (the most since the November 22, 2022 jump following the RBNZ FSR and strong NZ labour market data then). The UST 10 year yield continues its rise, up +6 bps today to 4.69%. The UST 2yr has risen +3 bps, now at 5.12%.

EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER, SOME MARKETS SHARPLY SO
The NZX50 is down -0.6% near the end of trade today. The ASX200 is down -1.2% in early afternoon trade, and that is enough of a fall to wipe out all of their 2023 gains. Tokyo is down -1.4% in Tuesday morning trade. Hong Kong is back from holiday and is down -2.8% in early trade. Shanghai is closed this week. Wall Street ended its Monday trade with the S&P500 essentially unchanged after a late rally.

GOLD FALLS AWAY FURTHER
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$1823/oz and down another -US$23 from this time yesterday. Earlier it closed in New York at US$1828/oz, and earlier still it closed in London at US$1833/oz.

NZD SLIPS SLIGHTLY
The Kiwi dollar is -¾c lower against the greenback, now at 59.3 USc as the USD rises strongly again. Against the Aussie we are up at 93.4 AUc and against the euro we are little-changed at 56.6 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now down -20 bps at 69.7.

BITCOIN SLIPS BACK
The bitcoin price is a bit softer today, now at US$27,472 and down -1.4% from where we were this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.2%.

Daily exchange rates

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Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

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Source: NZFMA
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This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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55 Comments

Great comment from Matt Barrie, one of Aussie's better tech entrepreneurs and bubble economics skeptic. Worth a chuckle, even if the data is real.

If rent is up 14%, food is up 7.5%, utilities bills up 13%, insurance up 14%, transport 7.4%,

how is the CPI up 6%?

In relation to this news event: 

https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/costs/secret-rba-documents-reveal…

 

 

  

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With a cash rate of 4.1% as well and Sydney house prices going nuts. Typical Aussie arrogance, it really is going to bite them on the @rse. For all the criticism of Orr, at least he had the mettle to put rates to 5.5% and talk hawkish. The new RBA governor looks seriously woke and is going to crash the A$.

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She has a $6(?) million property portfolio. Things are peachy as for her. 

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Every time I hear a Dollar value on somebodies portfolio, I look for the mortgage figure.  Strangely that informative bit is never there.

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7 house Luxon comes to mind. Its not just the mortgage number but what portion is the interest.

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That's an awful lot of reasons to be campaigning on the property-friendly policy he is.

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Commented earlier on the breakfast article that I've not long come back from spending a week in Sydney, and between the clients/prospects I met with and friends I caught up with (as well as meeting some of their mates down the pub or on the golf course) the obsession with property there is even worse than NZ. Nothing else enters the conversation, and nobody seems to think that paying millions for what is often fairly mediocre property is anything other than normal and infinitely sustainable. 

The more insufferable aspect is how obsessed Aussies seem to be with consumerist materialism. You could almost sense the perception I was a peasant because I wear a G Shock watch and not an Omega or Rolex. And heaven forbid you're only an Air NZ 'gold' member and not an elite one ... may as well go live in the Outback at that point (actually don't mention Outback, because admitting to owning a Subaru might see you put on the next 501 deportee plane) 

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The more insufferable aspect is how obsessed Aussies seem to be with consumerist materialism.

Are we much different? NZ doesn't have a Nimbin. Mind you, the yuppies have captured Bryon Bay. They'll be spreading from the center to the hinterland I guess. 

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nah nimbies cannot handle the complexity of life style blocks where you have to do your own water and septic tank services....

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You must be hanging out with middle management drone types. The genuinely wealthy rarely discuss or compare watches and cars etc, once you can buy whatever you want it all becomes rather meaningless. The real flex is spare time, boats, extended holidays and not being reveiwed annually. 

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You caught me red handed! My friend and his wife are in tech sales management - big salaries (well actually big commission/accelerator payments) but that constant grind of the even higher level management wanting another 5, 10, 15% higher quota each and every year, which you need to hit to pay the mortgage on your $3 million Sydney 3 bedder, or to upgrade the Range Rover or buy the newest Rolex.

The friends-of-friends I met were all similar. Big salaries/paychecks in management-type roles but massively indebted and no doubt living high stress lifestyles because of it.

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 My friend and his wife are in tech sales management - big salaries (well actually big commission/accelerator payments) but that constant grind of the even higher level

I guess if you have sales pipeline to the public sector, money for jam. And with those clients, you don't really have to deliver. 

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Agreed, look at the amount of money State and Federal govt there spend on consultants - it's eye-watering. 

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As the divorce lawyers know well, there are bugger all assets to fight over.

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I'm wearing my favorite watch, a stainless steel Casio digital, I bought on special at the Warehouse for $22.

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Who even needs a watch?

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Someone like me who doesn't carry a cellphone around.

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Smart business casual requires a watch in my opinion. 

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Or what? Your smart business mates might judge you? What a dismal situation. 

"Smart business casual" requires people to focus on the job, not what status symbols they need to wear / use / drive. In my experience people who put effort into the latter are usually compensating for a mediocre skillset. And all that fancy imported junk is unsustainable for our trade balance and the global environment 

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Good comeback

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Others were watching...

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no one saw the ranfurley shield drop... and its now plaster of paris.....    someone from a good family made a poor decision.

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Rings true…good to keep a finger on the pulse while wondering how long till this all unravels.

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I spend quite a bit of time in Sydney and have the same observations. A huge number of people between 25 and 45 who are very caught up in the "look at me" life style! Drive very expensive cars and always out at bars and restaurants showing themselves off. The housing market is absolutely insane, where 3 million will only buy a very average home anywhere near a train station unless you go way out west. Wages and salaries are much higher there but so are rent and housing. So many people have eye-watering mortgages and I expect there will be a great many distressed home sales next year. Your list this morning forgot to mention "what school did you go to?" Who cares!!!

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Comments about these fancy pants winners makes me realise how much I have become like Baldrick from Black Adder.  The cheerfully revolting peasant with many-a-cunning plan...

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The whole school thing is the most jarringly revolting part of spending time in Christchurch too. So quaint but corny.

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Yes will be interesting to see what happens next year in Aussie with the low OCR at present. RBNZ 9/10, RBA 3/10.

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Some U.S. bonds are now performing worse than Bitcoin in its current bear market. For example, 25-year zero coupon U.S. Treasury bonds are experiencing a greater drawdown from all time highs: -70+%.

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/AMEX-ZROZ/

 

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And yet punters are falling over themselves to buy increasingly negative yielding Japanese Government Bills - probably as a result of negative JPY xccy basis swaps against the USD.

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Could you decode this for us Audaxes? What would be the reason for anyone except the BoJ to buy JGBs?

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USD dollar xccy swap lender pays the basis - since it is negative Japanese yen lender has to pay the former. Upon receipt of the Yen the USD lender has to find a safe, low duration home for the funds, even though the return is negative it is less negative than the basis.

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so up goes jpy equities?

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"worse than Bitcoin in its current bear market"

I would say that Bitcoin isn't in a bear market.  Its an accumulation phase right now (I mean +70% in a year would be bullish for most assets!)

In fact, on a technical basis BTC is in a bull market above the bull market support band (which is around $28,500)

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I would say that Bitcoin isn't in a bear market.  Its an accumulation phase right now (I mean +70% in a year would be bullish for most assets!)

I'm still in bear mode Wolfie, even though I'm accumulating. And you're kind of correct in that many different models suggest we're not in a bear market. 

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New high for the three-year swap, now fast approaching the 5.6% mark. That is quite remarkable. 

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The 5y is at 5.31%, get that into you.

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Yes still rising. As expected Rabo had to raise TD rates again today to get above ASB with their higher credit rating. 5 yr TD 5.6% now breached. 

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Gold fell from ~US$2000 in April 2022 to ~US$1650 in October, then rose back to ~US$2000 in May this year, with central bank rates and bond yields going up the whole time. There is no causation there.

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the labour market continues to soften and aggressively so

Translation: Businesses can now get more desperate workers for less so that they can get back to earning $1 of operating profit for every $1 they pay out in wages... as is their God given right.

Current return on corporate slaves is a mere $0.80 of operating profit for every $1 paid in wages - completely unacceptable.

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Michael Lewis on FTX. Book released today as Sam goes to trial.

“This isn’t a ponzi scheme … They had a great real business. If no one had cast aspersions on the business, if there hadn’t been a run on customers deposits, they’d still be making tons of money.”

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ftx-founder-sam-bankman-fried-michael-lewi…

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https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/melbourne-vic/victorian-gov…

excerpts;

The Victorian government has brought forward a new tax as its first initiative since Dan Andrews departed as Premier.Treasurer Tim Pallas announced the surprise move at an industry breakfast on Tuesday, just one day after the state’s new leader Jacinta Allan was sworn in and her fresh cabinet was unveiled.Victoria’s Vacant Residential Land Tax, a charge on homes that have been let unoccupied for more than six months, will be expanded to the entire state, including regional areas, from January 1, 2025.

Currently, only properties in Melbourne’s inner and middle-ring suburbs are affected by the tax, which is charged at one per cent of the total value of the property.

The change comes after the state government announced it will begin taxing those in Airbnbs and other short stay rental accommodation.

Former Premier Andrews announced the new 7.5 per cent levy on short stay rental providers, which aims to reduce the number of households leasing out homes to holiday makers over long term renters amid the housing crunch.

There are more than 36,000 short stay accommodation places in Victoria, 29,000 of which are entire homes.

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"The theory of the Communists may be summed up in the single sentence: abolition of private property." 

Karl Marx 

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Bit of a stretch to compare this with communism. 

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Hard to see how it relates to the ‘abolition of private property’ either. 

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They’re not abolishing private property. 

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So when the young kids can't buy or rent property what do you think is going to happen? Policies like these are needed to curb profiteering on non productivity 

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Kids should just embrace free market capitalism while living under a bridge and being ridiculed for it.  

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And by free market we don't mean freedom of prices to crash, or freedom to build unfettered on ones own land to boost supply. Oh no.

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When the share market busts, is it usually October?  And on a Thursday?

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Something is brewing, that’s for sure. 

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Please could you stop comparing average sales for housing back 15 years? The stock has risen about 15% so in fact a lower % of stock is selling. This is never stated. 

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Neither is the population between then and now, or what the average household size is, etc.

Fairly difficult getting precise comparative figures.

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No need to wonder why - look at the medium you're trying to peer through; keystroke-issued debt, skewed by goal-post-shifting takes on 'inflation'. 

The boys out with the Ranfurly Shield probably had more cranial clarity...

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it was icing sugar your honour

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