2022 ended marking a major transition in the way we buy private cars. It was the year of electrified vehicles.
For the full year, we bought 4,226 Tesla Model Ys and 2,781 Tesla Model 3s. The Chinese BYD Atto sold 1,685 units rounding out the top three sellers in the fully electric segment.
For PHEVs (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles), the top sellers were the Mitsubishi Eclipse Cross (2,705 units) following by its bigger sibling the Outlander (2,243 units) with the Chinese MG HS in third (647 units).
The top selling hybrid models for year were the Toyota RAV4 (3,841 units) followed by the Honda Jazz (1,893 units) and Toyota Corolla (1,640 units).
These NEVs (new energy vehicles) drove a record year for new passenger cars and SUVs, rising a remarkable +77% over 2021.
And the pace quickened in December. Full battery electric vehicle registrations were up +80% in December from the same month a year ago, and plug-in hybrid electric registrations rose +101% on the same basis. Overall, electric and hybrid vehicles accounted for 46% of registrations in December. Diesel and petrol car registrations continue to decline, falling -18% and -36% respectively from December 2021.
The net result is that we purchased 116,445 new cars in 2022, an all-time record high. Things weren't so positive for used imports however. They sold 110,771 passenger units in 2022, down -9.1%, with a faster declining trend as the year progressed.
The new-car industry is less certain its 2022 pace can be maintained. David Crawford of the Motor Industry Association said the outlook for 2023 is for a somewhat softer outcome, with businesses and private buyers tightening their belts.
But one thing is for certain, we are only months away from where NEV sales outpace ICE passenger vehicles. It is a transition happening far faster than anyone foresaw - even six months ago.
New vehicles sold
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148 Comments
Imagine if you looked at our messed up traffic and people movement systems and thought that the solution was to electrify all of the traffic jams! Oh, wait...
We would need to add 20 to 25 GWh of electricty generation to convert our current land transport from oil to electricity - that's like doubling our hydropower capacity (or building 4 - 5 nuclear power stations)! We import twice as much energy in the form of oil as we produce in electricty (thankfully EVs are around three times more efficient than ICEs at converting energy to movement).
We would need to add 20 to 25 GWh of electricity generation
What makes it harder to achieve is the global scramble for labour and expertise required to build these generation assets. Closer to home, the Albanese government is orchestrating a gold rush in renewable energy and storage construction across the Tasman.
EVs pair really nicely with intermittent generation such as solar/wind. Even if your EV only has a range of 300km, you're probably only going to need to charge it every 3-4 days, so if our electricity utilities are smart they can let you charge cheaply when there's surplus generation, and when things are tighter you can skip charging for a day or two. Though we almost always have surplus generation in the middle of the night so I doubt anyone will get stuck.
If you really need to have a full charge for a big trip the next day you'll just pay a premium for that.
Yes, exactly this. I have an EV and home solar. Works great. But, we need much smart domestic / work-based charging stations that can turn on when we have surplus generation (or when wholesale price drops below X cents). Sadly, that would take some planning and collaboration...
Agree I have an EV and installing solar on new house. I have a current EV plan with Meridian, coming up 4 years old, and from 9pm to 6am it costs 9.4 cents. I programe charge to that time and it costs peanuts.
They also have a solar plan now where I get around 15 cents to feed in and then draw out at night at same price, roughly, so they manage the flow.
What we need is to have all EVs plugged in when you get home, draw of the car at peak times, evening and morning, and recharge at night. Fully charged my car could run the house for @5 days.
This would massively reduce the peak generation capacity needed and in effect uses EVs like a hydro lake. Be a massive capital save and better utilise existing generation capital.
I'm confident this will happen in the next 10 years or so.
Depends what you mean by "lasting". A quick google suggests that LiFePo batteries will have 80% capacity after 3,000 cycles of 100% depth of discharge, and up to 10,000 cycles at 80% depth of discharge before they reduce to 80% capacity.
For solar installations, the capacity degredation over time is generally not a huge issue - powerdownkiwi has been running on simple lead-acids for at least 15 years IIRC. If you over-provision your batteries by a good margin, then losing 20% capacity after 10+ years is a non-issue.
The car will be finished by the time the battery wears out. Drawing for the house is a very slow draw as well so less effect compared to driving. This tech is being developed, here now so it’s just time. Driving an EV is so good compared to ICE in my experience. Yes there will be charge issues, reticulation etc but it’s longer hauls that are affected as a nightly home charge will last 90% of people daily. EVs have costs like ICE does but it’s still far better. Utes, towing and heavy transport will be a challenge but it will change in some form. Young people don’t see any future in ICE vehicles so as we fossils fade away in the next 20 ish years watch the change. My guess is by 2040 you will be hard pressed to even be able to buy an ICE vehicle or repair one. I hope I’m here to see it happen!!
You need to take into account battery failures or cell failures not 100% of the batteries will last the 3000 cycles, there are always failures, that goes for everything. You could just be one of the unlucky ones where the pack fails early. If I have learned anything over the years, the quality of a battery can vary considerably.
That's been this government all over. It reminds me of those old Les Dawson piano sketches where he says he's not playing the music badly, it's all the right keys, just not in the correct order.
Many of these initiatives such as the clean vehicle rebate are good. It's just not well ordered. We have (usually) an abundance of UV at this time of year. In the off seasons we have enough rain to run hydro with confidence. One will always be effective no matter the weather. Why would the government not incentivise domestic solar as a priority and then the EV rebate after. Nuts.
Good comment but not sure there is time to do everything sequentially. And synergies between domestic solar and EVs would be missed if not done together, slowing uptake. Also because the average car is old it’s going to take many years of >50% EV new cars to convert the national fleet so need to crack on now
People are going to be forced into Solar and grid tied inverters to support the load. You can see it coming new road taxes for EV's or else you have to get setup with solar and then get the power you generate to offset the new tax. I'm going to love it at Mobil, they will probably roll out the red carpet for the remaining ICE customers, no queues like there will be at charging stations.
You do realise petrol stations are going to go the way of blacksmiths, video shops, post offices and bank branches? They are going to become few and far between. If you have shares in, or own, a petrol station, get out while you can. You can charge an EV anywhere there's mains power. Why will we need petrol stations? So we can pay double for bread and milk? Two words: stranded asset.
Maybe not yet
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/consumer/average-ev-fast-charging-co…
And that's without road user charges
In 20+ years of driving cars I've never managed to run one out, one close call due a rural gas station I expected to be open being shut on a sunday afternoon, but managed to limp it into the next gas station with the needle sitting on the hard stop.
I was always amazed at the people that used to turn up to borrow a gas can when I was a pump jockey in my younger years.. how bloody dis-organised do you have to be not to look at the fuel gauge when you jump in the car in the morning and decide whether to stop for gas. Or with an EV, on the way home, and whether to plug in that night. And any decent EV, you plug your destination into the nav and it will tell you if you need to find a charger, and some (Most?) will navigate you to a charger if needed.
NZ has enormous potential to add solar and wind generation capacity. Modern nuclear plants typically 1000 to 1400 MW producing around 10,000 GWh pa, enough for about 250m typical EV 40 kWh charges pa so one plant could power national fully-EV fleet. Though I’d prefer a mix of wind and solar
We would need to add 20 to 25 GWh of electricty generation to convert our current land transport from oil to electricity
More as we also need to remove most FF by 2030.
The case for the 2030 goals (which is around 1 m ev,and 98% renewable gen) needs 4.8 gw of additional capacity,as well as an investment of 8 billion in Transmission and 22 billion in distribution (which includes smartening grid etc) balancing the costs will be a decrease in costs of polysilicone,microprocessors,and battery storage (grid scale) the latter costs falling as alternatives now feasible are cheaper,with Iron or plastic such as polyjoule.
I'm all for it. I'd love a decent PT train network though.
Affordable EVs will financially benefit kiwi's long term. The bigger mission here on out is energy production, ramp it up, encourage self-production (panels).
The world is heading to extreme reliance on energy and sadly some politicians and think swayers are pushing the narrative of being conservative of energy use rather than find ways to produce more.
For sure. but that ROI is only on current energy rates, as we become more and more reliant on energy for more things, EVs being a major one, energy prices will rise quite quickly unless production doesn't rise in sync with demand.
Taking some reliance off the grid by self-production is important. Solar needs more improvements or we need something better than solar for sure though
Yes, good to see action at the top end. But real gains could be made at the bottom end . I see people driving big old clunkers that cost a fortune to run. The 8000 subsidy could buy and scrap that car, giving them the chance to buy a way more efficient s/h car. More emissions would be saved, compared to someone swapping a efficient ice for a slightly more efficient hybrid.
maybe - the issue is that the car is actually as much of the pollution problem as what pushes it along
and cars and roads improve so we cover more km p.a. compounding the problem
and I dont profess to have a solution but selling an existing vehicle and buying a new EV certainly isnt
Now imagine if a manufacturer came out with a one size fits all retrofit electric motor and battery package.
How many cars get wrecked because the motor is gone? Could be quite an industry taking existing wrecks, stripping them down and fitting them with battery packs and electric motors. Especially if one likes the shape of an E36 BMW, but has never liked their reliability.
I mean is that the old "proprietary parts pricing model" where if you built a car from the spare parts catalogue you'd be looking at 10x the showroom price? Because, a brand new Nissan Leaf is $60k - $70k. That includes Tires, body/chassis, paintwork, glass, interior linings and seats, shipping a whole load of air from Japan etc.
Maybe as electric car and battery tech become more mainstream, you'll find manufacturers coming out with plug and play electric motor + battery kits. 3 motor options, modular battery packs (Plug and play to increase range) and a whole load of engine mount kits to suit various existing car models. I guess it gets more complicated when talking about torques.
Conversion kits would seem eminently do-able on first glance. You couldn't put a layer of batteries under existing ICE vehicles without serious risk of ground strike hazard, but there's going to be loads of space under the bonnet for both a motor and batteries, in addition to the petrol tank area at the rear. The gearbox also disappears, replaced with a smaller integrated reducing gear and differential attached to the motor.
But without the benefit that true EVs have of being able to utilize all that cabin sub-floor area for batteries these conversions will be of lesser range. So good, efficient town cars, but not really for inter-city/touring use. These kits would likely also be lacking good battery thermal management, so cursed to the slowest charging and highest degradation rates.
Personally I'd feel very insecure potentially exposing myself to 400 volts or more of amateur installed high voltage electronics.
designing only for public transport, and cities designed for walking / cycling often means cutting transport access for the most vulnerable populations and increasing their costs of transport in the small amount of places they are left being allowed to access (sadly this does not include hospitals, CBDs or work environments leading to massive crippling loss of social mobility and increased health harm). Sadly no provision was made by the government even for vehicles for disabled travellers so the cost of disability vehicles went up more than $10000 for the population with the least access to funds to pay for it and the provision for ensuring the supply of ICE vehicles for disabled people was cut so severely that the costs have balloned. Imagine needing transport access down to the doctor but the 5min road trip costs you around $100, along with a two week wait for your vehicle booking to be available. Imagine the christmas where you are denied access to family because you did not book the short vehicle trip in the same area of the city back in september and even then did not have the $200 necessary for it back in september.
The price : range ($51,410 after rebate, 420km WLTP range) was the cheapest in the market. Although prices are now up I think $4,000-5,000 from when I bought both of mine, but they're probably either #1 or just barely nudged down to #2 even with that price increase.
Really I'd been waiting for self-driving taxis and had planned not to replace my old car, but they still look like they're at least 2-3 years away from entering the NZ market so gave up waiting.
Also the price of petrol is only going to go up.
Dream on…. Petrol price depends on global oil supply/demand. Low oil prices 2014-2020 meant prolonged period of low investment in new oil production (thankfully). Even at higher prices currently major producers are very wary of large new investment. Peak oil must be very close now
Yeah I was seriously considering the MG ZS last year but the range was crap, was waiting to see if they'd bring the long-range one to NZ but I still don't think they're generally available.
Atto 3 has the range I wanted and the price is a bit more than the MG but the car is much better feature-wise and quality-wise, and free over the air updates for the life of the vehicle as well (have had 2 so far, that added navigation, voice controls, spotify. Next update brings apple carplay, and android auto will be after that).
That is what I was thinking , use self driving taxis, there is a service called Mevo.
I have a latest 1.4 turbo Tiguan, done 20K only
Do you think I should sell it while the resale value (30K) is good ?
Problem is I don't want to buy an electric for another 2 or 3 years so what do I replace it with . Decent 2nd hand cars cost around 20K
We're kidding ourselves if we think we can just switch from petrol/diesel vehicles to electric ones and carry on business as usual. While they're more efficient and pollute less, in a lifecycle view it's maybe a 50-75% reduction which isn't going to save our planet.
A shift towards more walking, cycling and public transport, plus fewer trips overall (e.g. remote work) is what we really need. But we still build our cities in such a way to make these modes impractical, around a quarter of our cities are devoted to space for vehicles, so of course we use them for everything.
That shift is going to take decades, if not centuries. And you're still going to end up with severely limited mobility for people who can't afford to live near areas well-served by public transit, and those people are generally going to have less ability to work from home or set their own hours.
Those problems aren't going away because of hand-waving appeals to the greater good and whimsical notions about 'saving the planet'. You're talking about curtailing people's livelihoods and finding an equitable solution is as important as finding one that's effective from a climate perspective.
Two decades is fanciful, government simply isn't capable of building the infrastructure you'd need to go that far that quickly. There is a 15 year timeline on the AWHC project once they actually decide what they're going to build. And this is something that they apparently would rather do ahead of region-wide Light Rail or any of the other stuff that you'd need to start seriously erode people's ability to move around and earn a living.
You seem to think society will have a choice to delay.
Anyway the response was simply to this statement:
A shift towards more walking, cycling and public transport, plus fewer trips overall (e.g. remote work) is what we really need.
This is already underway. Not sure why you think it would take decades to centuries when it has already started.
What about the current roll-out of rapid transit in Auckland suggest we are remotely capable of actually doing it? Whether we can afford to or not is irrelevant if you just flat out lack the ability to actually do it in the first place. Like I say, the tunnel that NZTA is constantly trying to push to the top of the list of things we need ASAP is, by NZTA's own admission, at least 15 years away.
Depends what you mean by "doing it".
You seem to think "doing it" means building infrastructure to better support the mode shift that is already underway.
I am saying that the mode shift is going to happen regardless of whether the infrastructure is there or not. Because there will be no choice.
Exactly. It's going to happen because people who can afford to speak in absolutist terms generally spend more appealing to pathos than they do trying to figure out how to make those changes not disproportionately affect the less well-off or those who can't afford to live centrally or do jobs they can't do from home. That bit's just too hard.
Those people didn't matter when the regional fuel tax came in, they didn't matter when Covid projects got cut from the Auckland budget and they won't matter now. It's more important we have a thousand discussion documents, strategies and business cases instead of the actual stuff they're about ever getting built.
It's going to hard for people to mode-shift to infrastructure that never gets built and doesn't exist, and if the plan is just to make it so punitive and time-consuming to travel in the first place, at least call it what it is: a tax on poor people for already being poor.
When petrol is $5/litre the market will 'solve' all of these problems in the only way the market knows how: demand destruction.
Expect the government to step in to offer financial support during what will be a severe and ongoing recession, to a greater degree than they have done with the 25c fuel excise tax reduction.
Better hope it's a Labour government.
I'm not saying I'm looking forward to this future at all, just doing what I can to prepare for it now.
widespread domestic solar is easy to install and economically facilitates EV charging for many. The charging infrastructure issue is significant but actually not as difficult as many imagine. A few months ago I did 6000km EV road trip in Europe and didn’t have to queue once despite higher proportion of EVs on the road as most charging is done at home. NZ charging behaviour likely to be similar.
Water based emulsion being used, not high grade bitumen which was only one of the many useful byproducts made at or near marsden point refinery. Another was sulfur which was used in fertiliser, as well as many more like carbon dioxide which we now have a major shortage of. We now are dependent on the rest of the world for fuel and the plethora of useful byproducts that came from the marsden point refinery all in the name of carbon dioxide reduction, where there was so many other areas that could have been assessed for reduction also without ruining our own self-reliance.
I don't expect the taxpayer to subsidise me.
We are a few small islands at the bottom of the world.
Personally I'd view it less so as a bailout for shareholders and moreso of a securing of our countries ability to be self sustaining. Even if we wee only producing a percentage off the demand, if things go sour anytime in the future, we are entirely reliant on the outside world for an energy source that is vital to our economy and way of life, and we have subsequentially been getting hit in the pocket from being reliant on the rest of the world for so many of the products that came from the refinery. Just look at CO2 currently and fertilizer.
This is worth reading. https://ourfiniteworld.com/2022/02/09/limits-to-green-energy-are-becomi…
I got a 2021 Leaf. It's great. I've got a couple of upgrades planned to make it slightly more practical in the medium term, which should bring it in line with the more modern ones you can buy new today. So far, so good. A home wall charging unit is essential (or access to one) as is 6kw AC charging as a bare minimum.
For a leaf with a tiny battery, yes you need a good home charger.
For the BYD Atto 3 with 60kwh battery, we're doing just fine on the supplied 'granny charger' that delivers ~1.3kw per hour - a 10 hour overnight charge will get you 21% of the battery back, or ~100km range.
How are you finding the Atto? Our mate has one and is in love with it. We are still running our petrol SUV into the ground before making the jump - next car is going to be fully electric (we have had solar PV on the roof for over a decade so we will run the EV directly off that - as an aside anyone else with solar PV should seriously look at Octopus for their offering as supplier/buyer of electricity (in fact even if we did not have solar PV I think they make sense with their 3 24 hour tariffs). I do see that the Atto comes with hardware so you can use its battery to resupply household appliances (Octopus are running a trial with this sort of technology so you can use your EV car battery as a household battery).
Ideally though we would want a 4WD/AWD EV to do the job our current SUV does (we get out in the back blocks a fair bit). Plus one with a spare wheel (where have all the spare wheels gone, LOL).
The Atto is great. No complaints.
The vehicle to load adapters aren't in the country yet but should be here before the end of February. Note that these just supply you 2x standard 3-pin plugs to run appliances, power tools or camping equipment etc. You can't power the whole house that way (others might get that impression from your comment).
Yes sorry I was talking more about these sort of developments (although this example is battery to grid, rather than battery to house load).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kl9_cWF7fXo
Although that is a UK video Octopus did do a feature on a pilot scheme running in NZ a couple of months ago.
V2G like that uses Chademo, whereas most non-Japanese vehicles use CCS2. I don't believe the current CCS standards support V2G like the Chademo one does.
The Leafs, ironically enough, support it, but you wouldn't want to put any more wear through the factory Leaf battery than you have to.
I'm planning on using this as my only car, so just filling up overnight isn't always going to work if I have to make multiple trips in one day or head out after work. A few hours on a wall-unit at home at 6kw charging will get me over half a.... tank(?) before I head out again. Compare that with 5.1kwh on a three-pin domestic socket. 18 vs 5 is a pretty good gain, considering that it's not going to be as punishing for the battery as DC charging. Plus I'm trying to avoid fast-charging where possible, at least until the situation with LFP batteries for the Leaf through EVs Enhanced becomes clearer.
Charging point shortage stops drivers switching: Electric car revolution at crisis point
The challenge was laid bare over Christmas when motorway charging points were overwhelmed and queues of Tesla cars built up as families travelled to visit relatives. And concerns are mounting that parts of the country are being left behind.
It will be interesting to see how the charging point situation evolves.
At the moment the points are very much available through the goodwill of councils and a few retailers. Most don't have to pay any costs relating to the land the charger and/or vehicle occupies. Eventually though that will change and the price to charge will increase significantly.
You would also think that most EV owners would be using less than 100% charge for a return trip (i.e. daily commute), so theoretically would only need to charge at home. Will there be enough demand to generate the revenue required for a private charging network?
The human aspect around the charging will also be interesting. Currently it takes ~1 minute to fill my ICE with fuel, as a result I am next to the car the entire time (and as it is also generally monitored by station staff). With charging people plug in and walk away for 30-60 minutes, generally in an open public space. What will the security be like? how do you prevent chargers from getting unplugged, swapped, turned off, or even damaged.
As you say time will tell...
DC charging is ideal for topping up even if just for ten minutes on fast-charging EVs, and most EVs will lock the charger in place if the doors are locked. You can monitor the charge remotely and alerts that a charging session has terminated is something that many EVs already support.
In terms of security, we've had these things called 'car parks' at shops and malls for some time now. There doesn't seem to be any major security issues that stops people from leaving their cars in them for hours at a time. Why that would suddenly be an issue with EVs I have no idea.
Given we already have private charging networks operating, it looks like the other issues here are not that much of a deal-breaker.
I didn't really mean general Carpark security. I more meant the fact you have componentry open and accessible. Usually when parked I don't have my fuel door open and a fuel pump hanging out my tank.
The app monitoring is good, and mitigates some time loss, but not all. A friend was charging their EV, got the ping on the app that it was no longer connected, but were a few minutes away (due to cafe preference) so had to dutifully walk back and resolve the issue. Nothing sinister, but time wasted none-the-less. They have also had a few verbals both for and against where it was believed the charger was being used for too long.
The current networks do indeed exist, but their scalability is questionable.
Like I said, I will be interested to see how it pans out in the next 2-3 years.
The human aspect around the charging will also be interesting.
Yes, big opportunity.
Currently it takes ~1 minute to fill my ICE with fuel, as a result I am next to the car the entire time (and as it is also generally monitored by station staff).
Many people use petrol stations for buying coffee and food etc. Petrol stations are expensive and require ongoing deliveries of fuel etc to operate. By contrast it is quite easy for any business to set up an EV charger in their existing car park and existing electricity supply and cater to the customers that use it. Many cafes in the South Island are already doing this.
With charging people plug in and walk away for 30-60 minutes,
They go into the cafe and have a coffee and a meal while they watch their car charge through the window. $$$$ for the cafe from 'captive' customers.
Yeah, for people just doing their daily / weekly routines around town practically any EV will do the job, and can be easily charged up at home overnight on a mere 10amp supply.
The point I'm interested to follow is the charging infrastructure for intercity travel. This is where people will need bigger and faster chargers, and many more charging units. I can imagine it being a potential for low price land alongside state highways in the middle of nowhere to become charging clusters.
Build well serviced (clean) public toilets, cafe/dining facilities and areas for kids to play while the cars are plugged in... a captive market needing foods, drinks, energy, entertainment... If you build it, will they come?
This seems far more attractive to me, to have a mid-journey charging point with ample chargers (no queueing), and none of the current nonsense of having a single 50kW charger in a crowded supermarket carpark (with and ICE vehicle parked in it).
We hear plenty of criticism of Labour, time for some compliments? The “ute tax” is working incredibly well, are National still going to scrap it?
it’s this kind of thing that make it way too early to call the next election. Labour would be silly to use their ammo now, but come the election they will make it clear how well their tax changes have worked and how crazy it would be to reverse them.
People who think it's a foregone conclusion that National will win the next election seem to have overlooked a couple of things:
- Grant Robertson still has a budget up his sleeves, in which I expect there to be a tax-free income tax threshold introduced (with any luck it'll be in the $8-10k range - very pricey but necessary)
- The power of incumbency
Well, I mean they'll have had some time to gauge what the increased tax take is on the removal of the mortgage interest deductibility and may put that towards a tax-free income threshold. A great way to help productive members of society, while also making the deductibility rule appear to be as neutral as possible.
I'd like an EV for my next vehicle (well more accurately for the next 'family wagon'- come to mention it, when will there be a decently-priced and ranged EV wagon? Even a PHEV Outback or something would be the dream for me) but for now I'm happy with my combo of eBike and petrol car that is infrequently used.
I can't make the maths work in favour of buying an EV when I'm spending less than $15 per week on petrol on average, on a car that cost half what an EV would cost to buy.
The eBike cost $3k but is saving me in parking fees and wear and tear on the car, and I can now get to 80% of the destinations I regularly travel for work/leisure (my office, client offices, gym) faster than I can drive.
I'm definitely a fan of EVs and they are the future, but there must be plenty of others in my situation who are sitting outside the tent longingly looking in because the numbers don't work yet.
I’m in the same boat. I’ve already decreased my driving a lot which means my gas guzzler doesn’t get much opportunity to guzzle gas. It feels like the most environmentally friendly thing to do is hold onto it as long as possible compared to buying a big new lump of metal and lithium to hardly drive. But for people who do big kms and/or love spending up on a new car, EV would be the way to go.
SUV. 'Soft' being the operative word here.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-daily-post/news/bay-of-plenty-stream…
I haven’t quite worked out the economics of spending $50,000+ to save less than $3,000 a year on fuel for the average motorist.
The depreciation alone on a $50,000 car compared to the petrol powered vehicle it replaced will be much more than that, especially once mileage starts to get up on the EV and the value really starts to plummet due to perceived or actual limits to battery life span.
I do a fairly long commute, around 35,000km/year so I bought a late model used Toyota Camry for that. Due to not being electric/hybrid or an SUV, it was so unfashionable and cheap 2nd hand that even my $6,000/year fuel bill makes it hard to form an argument to buy an EV for my commute. Add RUCs onto EVs next year and the economics look even worse.
Keeping a cheaper vehicle and paying off more of my mortgage is a far better return at todays interest rates especially.
If you're prioritising economics into your vehicle purchasing decision, then the word "European" does not compute. You're either burning money on depreciation at the newer end, or maintenance at the other.
This technology obviously works from a technical standpoint, but buying an EV or solarising your home electricity is going to be more an emotional purchase than a financial one for the vast majority of consumers. That might change down the line, but it'll either take a while, or involve some sort of financial intervention in the form of taxes and subsidies.
What's the time value of never having to visit a gas station, and almost never needing to get it serviced, plus nice things like preheating in winter, pre-cooling in summer.
Its very hard to argue for a car instead of a bicycle or bus ticket on economic terms, until you put a value on your time.
I had an enthusiast Euro, I needed to swap it for family reasons anyway and I was put off on the experience because it basically turned me into an amateur mechanic and I have no business near the pointy end of a spanner. I basically had to keep a beater Japanese car on the driveway to ensure I could always get to work. So I've consolidated down from two cars to one, and got one much safer, much cheaper car to run in the process.
And frankly, if I had to stop driving manuals daily then I wanted to go the whole hog and make that work for me. If newer manual Camrys existed, I'd have gladly opted for that.
What did me was that the 'fix' bulletins for some things were "Just bolt literally the same prone-to-failure part on again and wait for it fail for the second time. There is no actual design revision or fix for the problem itself, sorry m8". What's the carbon emissions for a BMW once you price in about three fuel pumps per vehicle in addition to the one it came with?
If the mid-2000 Minis had a little Japanese 1600cc engine, I'd have asked to be buried in mine. Instead, BMW decided to borrow one from someone else. From Peugeot. Never before has such a fantastic car been so crippled by such a crappy engine.
You could get aftermarket parts that fixed a lot of the issues, Pelican Parts was a good place (USA), certainly in my experience with an E36 BMW.
Composite plastics all through the cooling system e.g. water pump, thermostat housing, even the lower radiator brackets were plastic, slid up into place from the bottom and the latching mechanism was adopted from the battery cover of a television remote. Latch deteriorates, byebye mount.
What happens when the EV freeloaders have to start paying RUC’s , and the price of electricity goes up ; and the availability of charging points becomes scarce due to demand, maintenance etc affecting longer trips ? Reliability and sustainability issues aside of course.
EVs, of course, are notorious for their demanding maintenance needs.
Last time I checked, the fact people did not have petrol stations in their driveways didn't stop people driving petrol cars. I think you'll find a three pin socket in most houses.
And of course, there's zero chance of any of those issues happening to ICE-powered cars, is there?
Of all the issues our last 2 retired cars had, electronics/sensors/ecu were the main faults. Not maintenance per se, but in some cases taking several visits to the garage to get a correct diagnosis and fix. A failed ECU in one being the death of an otherwise mechanically sound vehicle.
Teslas, especially if American assembled can be dodgy
Tesla's future is far from assured, so spares for the car may be expensive or unavailable, whether battery/transmission, or touch screens, computers of whatever.
Drove a Kia EV6, was quite impressed, but pretty pricy and some quirks, like doorhandles that all stick out when car unlocked, firmish ride and no spare.
https://www.motorbiscuit.com/why-doesnt-consumer-reports-recommend-2022…
EV's will help provide the smoothest transistion to far less travel, many will not realise we are there until they get to the life cycle part.
Given the carbon cost of EV's, I imagine gradually reducing the amount of petrol/diesel one can purchase would be the more economical route, just politically impossible atm.
Hmmm, some missing information here. The Motor Industry Association stated that the top three vehicles sold in 2022 in NZ were non electrified, Ford Ranger (11577), Toyota Hilux (9787) and the Mitsubishi Outlander (9104). I agree more people are buying EV's, my personal choice will be a hybrid after watching people sitting in their EV's at BP charging stations, yes BP, for over 30mins on their mobile phones to pass the time!!!
So when the price of electricity soars through all the new EV purchases, all the people who cannot afford an EV will have even further increases in their weekly costs due to other peoples virtues? Deman soars, supply stays the same, we burn more nasty indonesian coal to generate said electricity at Huntly, more ower demands overnight as more EV's ae purchased, power companies change plans due to peak hours being longer overnight. I'm not seeing a reduction in emissions from this as the energy has to be generated from somewhere and to build the infrastructure to generate this cleanly will take a long time.
There is near constant building of new generation, last time I was down in Palmy there were 30odd wind turbine nacalles sitting in a yard waiting to be trucked out to the expanding windfarm. A friends partner works for the lines company in Napier, and they have more windfarms going in down there too, though covid etc has delayed them and they are running behind schedule, and he was concerned they might run out of HV cable to connect it back to the grid due to supply chain issues.
There is hope though
Contact has 3.0TWh per annum of announced Geothermal projects to be delivered this decade. Fortunately, geothermal is not experiencing the same global supply chain constraints experienced by solar panels and wind turbines currently.
Electricity demand in NZ has been steady for much of the past decade at around 40TWh per year. However, to meet NZ’s carbon emission commitments a lot of our industries and households will need to reduce their carbon footprint by transitioning away from fossil fuel power to electricity. According to the NZ Climate Change Commission, demand for electricity in NZ is expected to grow another approximately 20TWh or 50% by 2050. Demand is typically driven by population growth and changes in industrial load like the Tiwai NZAS smelter. In recent years, new demand has arisen from new technology with electric vehicles, data centres, coal boiler substitution, and green hydrogen expected to be large users of electricity.
With the changes made by the government they have cut transport access for the most vulnerable populations and increasing their costs of transport in the small amount of places they are left being allowed to access (sadly this does not include hospitals, CBDs or work environments leading to massive crippling loss of social mobility and increased health harm). We have a perverse dystopia where the poorest in the nation are paying extra added costs for luxury vehicles for the richest that they don't even need to use.
Sadly no real actual provision was made by the government even for vehicles for disabled travellers so the cost of disability vehicles went up more than $10000 (for the population with the least access to funds to pay for it) and the provision for ensuring the supply of ICE vehicles for disabled people was cut so severely that the costs have ballooned. Imagine needing transport access down to the doctor but the 5min road trip costs you around $100, along with a two week wait for your vehicle booking to be available. Imagine Christmas where you are denied access to family because you did not book the short vehicle trip in the same suburbs of the city back in September and even then did not have the $200 necessary for it back in September. Even worse losing access to the community has been a issue for decades yet NZTAs accessible streets excluded disabled people and resulted in a greater loss of access, ironically. This was a well known and well studied result by the NZTA with their own researchers admitting that transport access for the more vulnerable populations who have no other choice than using ICE private vehicles has gotten so bad over the past 6 years basic medical needs are not being met and often are abandoned completely in states worse than imprisonment. You could not predict this... oh wait the disability vehicle suppliers did and reported this in the ""consultations"" and the results of denying access for disabled people in transport was repeatedly mentioned with evidence to the government departments managing the NZ transport sector, energy sector and climate change commission. Their answer was disabled people do not deserve existence on par with the rest of the population. Thus we have worse access now than 10 or even 20 years ago and are decades behind Australia and the US when it comes to the UNCRPD. The changes to increase electric vehicle sales is left those that proposed them with very real blood and deaths on their hands. Thanks for that.
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