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Large numbers of students pushed the monthly net migration gain to more than 5,000 in July

Public Policy / news
Large numbers of students pushed the monthly net migration gain to more than 5,000 in July
airport-arrivalrf.jpg
Source: 123rf.com

New Zealand saw its highest monthly net migration gain for five months in July, with large numbers of students boosting the net gain to above 5,000.

Statistics NZ said there were provisionally 5,900 migrant arrivals on student visas in July 2024.

"This is the highest for a month since 6,000 in February 2023."

It is provisionally estimated that 17,453 migrants arrived in the country in July, which is the highest tally since February of this year.

While the numbers of inbound migrants are down on the peak monthly levels of up to 25,000 seen after the borders re-opened, the numbers are still on a monthly basis generally well above the 11,000-12,000 a month seen through most of 2019 before the pandemic.

But departures are higher too, with an estimated 12,143 in July. Since February the outbound numbers have been consistently in the 12,000-13,000 range. In 2019 outward migrants were mostly in a 6,000-9,000 monthly range.

All of the migration figures are provisional estimates and Stats NZ attaches all due health warnings to them because the figures don't become finalised till 16 months after the event and generally there are fewer revisions the more time goes on.

The figures are therefore subject to potentially substantial revisions, with Stats NZ advising that the figures are more reliable the closer it comes to the 16 month finalisation period.

Stats NZ is estimating that in the 12 months to July, total net migration was 67,201, which is down from 71,710 in the 12 months to June. The peak level for 12 months was 136,745 as of October last year.

The figures for the 12 months to July 2024 are made up from 200,803 inbound migrants and 133,601 departing migrants.

The number of departing migrants is (provisionally) a record for a 12 month period.

Stats NZ's population indicators manager Tehseen Islam said New Zealand’s net migration rate is down on last year, "but is still relatively high by historical standards".

High net migration rates in 2023 and 2024 "mainly reflect the large number of migrant arrivals to New Zealand following the relaxation of COVID-19-related travel and border restrictions, both in New Zealand and overseas, from 2022".

"New Zealand’s net migration rate in 2023 was the highest since the late 1870s, when New Zealand’s population was under one million," Islam said.

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55 Comments

I'm sure they'll all train to be doctors and engineers who will contribute to our standard of living and not just work as underpaid slaves or become our landlords.

What we have is insanely ass-backwards. The government tries to workout how many people it can feed into the economy rather than how the economy can best feed our own people. Immigration undermines our standard of living in an economy that would otherwise self correct for things like poor wages or inflated costs of housing and food since a capitalist owner can simply import more people to undermine the plebs' bargaining position.

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I'm sure they'll all train to be doctors and engineers who will contribute to our standard of living and not just work as underpaid slaves or become our landlords.

Given that an elected MP of one of our left of center parties 'allegedly' was involved in the exploitation of migrants for self interest, it's not a good reflection on Aotearoa.

Do most Aotearoans see migrants as legitimate citizens, economic widgets, or part of a plan to rescue the Ponzi?  

 

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Both 2 and 3

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Not every Kiwi becomes a doctor or an engineer either. But some of the migrants might actually arrive here as qualified doctors or engineers, or their kids might become doctors or engineers.
The most prosperous economy in the world- USA, is built mostly on/by immigrants and/or their children. Go figure.
Every new immigrant means more business for the local grocery store, cafe, rental, etc. it stimulates the economy

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How does US immigration policy compare to ours?

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NZ doesn't have MS13 coming in YET

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That's a false equivalent. The US is different since they have a critical mass of talent driving successful mega corporations which attracts more talent which further improves their prosperity.

NZ is the opposite though since we are not a desirable country we don't get talent here. We get people who put more pressure on our infrastructure than they produce in wealth.

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Immigration is a necessity, however incorrectly targeted, and excessive immigration for the wrong purposes, is the issue. I like meeting new people form different ways of life to challenge, question and  broaden my mind and opinions. I don't however agree with importing excessive numbers of people on the basis of the mass retirement going on and the need for current taxpayers to pay the pensions going out. Always look for, and focus on  the cause, not the effect.

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What's happening is a rapid displacement of citizens and the Kiwi culture as many leave New Zealand. I have no idea about the skill sets of who's coming in but once they get PR many of them won't hessitate to jump ship to oz for better money. We can already see many non-citzens leaving NZ, but I don't know in those numbers who's a student or holiday maker and who was actually working. Many of these immigrants are also getting used as cannon fodder, sold this idea of a great life style in the west by ruthless immigration agents, so they sell up everything and come to NZ only to find they can't afford to live here, or have no quality of life. Problem is, they lose so much money coming that it becomes very difficult or sometimes impossible to return. At some point this ponzi scheme will break. 

 

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AHA, those 5000 students will be buying up all the properties for sale.

Property prices up 45% in 2025.

Checkmate DGMs.

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They won’t buy properties but they will add pressure to rental supply, which isn’t ideal either.

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And this rent pressure is what is pushing more nurses, teachers and police out of New Zealand. As rents go up they have less disposible income and this also hurts retail trade, a double whammy. 

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They dont have residency so they cant buy property.

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People like you who call checkmate during every downturn in the cycle.

Clowns.

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Free entertainment is free entertainment (shrug)

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Great news for rents especially Auckland CBD.

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Agreed. This is the key takeaway and probably help save more than a few small business people in the CBD.

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The Auckland North Shore suburb I live in, is more Beijing and Mumbai. Am shocked these days when I hear English spoken let alone meet a fellow Kiwi. 

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you will be lucky to feel like being in Beijing -- way better quality of life and safety.

 

 

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Yes and no

I visited Beijing in May. It’s a great city, and certainly some aspects of life are better than here - public transport, sense of community, crime

But other aspects would seem inferior to here, in terms of quality of life. Climate, environment, stress levels

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China is heading toward deflation and supply chains are running for the hills.

Back to the 3rd world you go….

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NEWSFLASH:

People who speak more than one language can also be kiwis.

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People who speak more than one language can also be kiwis.

Yes. And that doesn't mean being able to drop mahi, aroha, and mana into an English sentence and consider yourself bilingual. 

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Never meet anyone who did that JC...?

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I have plenty of friends who do the mahi and the koha. Do as one pleases. They can impress me if they can properly order a coffee in Maori. Functional.  

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Pretty much every where now

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Its fantastic. In Belgium most speak 3 or so languages (Dutch, French, English, some Flemish). I always envied growing up with such cultural variety.

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Switzerland too

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Flemish is Dutch. 

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As opposed to what .. Birmingham?

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What suburb is this?

But imagining visiting Papatoetoe LOL

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Auckland Northshore is nothing - wait until you visit Chatswood or Burwood in Sydney at nights, the atmosphere is absolutely divine!

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NZ is only a stepping stone! 
Most probably don't have long term commitment to stay.

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So true for many. Literally a week after their NZ citizenship ceremony my parents bought plane tickets to Oz and moved on. 

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Quite a few at my workplace, even one that I worked in the same office few years ago!!!!

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Yep. Have had a bunch thru work have done exactly that. Once you have moved country once doing so again is less of an issue.

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And for many people, originally from a non Anglo county, Australia would be a very easy cultural transition from New Zealand. 

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Interestingly, no political party in NZ seems to have anything to say about immigration, and the public are largely complacent with the status quo it seems. Other countries have seen a real anti-migrant backlash but in NZ that sentiment is directed more at Māori than it is at immigrants.

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Wonder why…………

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Racism..always been the underbelly of NZ ah Iceman.

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Just saying. Who make up most of the gangs mate??

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Gang members?

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Of what race mostly?

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So what?

that has very little if anything to do with race, and everything to do with generally being bottom of the socio-economic scrap heap.

go to the deprived parts of Europe and you will see WHITE people drawn to gangs, neo-nazism etc. And where do they come from? The bottom of the economic heap and dysfunctional families

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And is all of that my fault?

 

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Would he say it to their face, or is he a total melt? 

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Indeed, and over a million have arrived with no electoral mandate to support that.

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Look deeper behind why the immigration is like this. It isn't by mistake, there are drivers... therein lies where we should be focused.

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The anti-migrant backlash is related to the amount of crime.  Here in NZ its not the Asian migrants who are committing most of the crime.  Unlike Germany or Sweden where migrants have fuelled a rise in crime.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1901453/sweden-civil-war-migrant-c…

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Actual border crossings full year to July 2024 was 57,000. If the estimate is 10,000 higher than that at 67,000, then it's assumed that 10,000 departures are temporary and will come back.

So then, looking at what happened from March through to July; 155,000 people left. The same period last year, 63,000 people left.

Yes I'm cherry picking because March saw a deep change in migration.

Stats NZ are estimating 10,000 of those 155,000 will come back. What about the other 145,000? Gone.

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Yep. Gone to pay lots of tax elsewhere. Well done.

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Back on track

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And buy houses elsewhere.  And have children.  And when their parents/grandparents die, they will expatriate their inheritances as well.

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Which will embed our account deficit further, good thing we have appetite for more private debt to fill the gap! Oh wait... no..

Oh well, good thing we used all that private debt to build a resilient economy and world class services and infrastructure! Oh wait... no...

The future is more govt spending. If people don't like it, well, they can leave too I guess?

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How are we supposed to use this data with such a lag? Does this provide better data for analysis or does it help obfuscate it?

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