By David Hargreaves
With the clock now loudly ticking a countdown to the September 23 election, the housing market looks to be settling into 'wait and see' mode while the outcome is awaited.
The Reserve Bank's action last year in putting 40% deposit limits on housing investors, combined with banks themselves implementing more conservative lending policies and 'rationing' credit has done the trick to take steam out of the market in the first half of the year, while the natural period of election limbo will now take hold.
So, the whole year will be a much slower one in the housing market than we've seen in recent years.
And while there might be those secretly harbouring regrets that the value of their house is not shooting up $1000 every week, more sage observers with an eye on the longer term will probably feel there isn't too much to complain about. The first home buyers have been given some opportunity to catch up, while there's no imminent sign of us heading from boom to bust, which of course is what the RBNZ and the banks would have feared.
What happens from here though will be interesting to say the least.
Nobody likes uncertainty. It's worth remembering that even though the National Party always looked extremely likely to be able to snare a workable majority in the last election, there was still a considerable pause in housing market activity pre-election.
This was followed by an almighty rush to the real estate offices as the outcome was revealed and a subsequent reignition of the housing market's upward rocket thrusters.
So, a pause this time around, particularly after the RBNZ moves and the greater caution being shown by banks with lending, was a given.
Much less predictable, however, is what happens straight after this election. It's less predictable because the election outcome itself is far from predictable.
A charmed run
When it is considered that New Zealand has had a proportional representation electoral system in place since 1996, I think you can argue that we've mostly had a charmed run in terms of being able to put together stable Governments that have been able to fully function. The big exception was that very first electoral period between 1996 and 1999. Then of course there was one Winston Peters.
Nothing should be readily assumed about this year's outcome, but I would say there's a fair chance we'll get the least clear result since that 1996 one. And the subsequent battle to form a Government well all be about...Winston Peters. What is it they say about the more things change the more they stay the same?
What this could all mean for the housing market is that, well, we simply won't KNOW what it all means for the housing market for some time ahead. That could be unsettling.
If we do indeed get an election result that leaves no one party with a clear mandate to form a Government, then there may well be some serious horse trading between parties. Of course that's the time when the smaller parties get the chance to push their pet policies into the limelight.
Crucial policies
In this regard the policies of all parties on housing and the inter-related issue of immigration become crucial. These are hot buttons with the electorate and the minor parties are sure to want to push their own barrows on these policies in any negotiations to form a Government. Of course if we get a major party or parties implementing a policy that's pushed on them by a minor party, then something a bit out of the blue might occur. Unintended (as far as the major parties are concerned) outcomes.
Therefore, in terms of both housing and immigration, we might need to expect the unexpected from the Government that is ultimately formed.
The other key point is that if the Government formed later this year (and let's hope it IS formed still in 2017) is not particularly stable then policies might well get changed again within the next electoral cycle. I mean, let's hope not, but it is possible.
The big variables up for grabs in terms of housing and immigration include, but are not limited to:
- How many new houses will be built or at least planned for New Zealand and particularly Auckland?
- What changes will be made to immigration policy settings and therefore immigrant numbers?
- What changes will be made to tax policy around housing?
Any combination of significant changes in these areas could produce significantly different outcomes for the housing market.
Business as usual?
If National was able to manufacture a workable majority (IE not involving Winston) then it might be expected that business as usual will resume and in those circumstances the housing market may well roar off into the sunset again come the end of the year - particularly if Auckland does have hosting an America's Cup regatta to look forward to. And yes, on that point I remain ever sceptical that some yacht races should fire up the markets, but if you go all the way back to the KZ7 hysteria of 1986, all you can say is, they seem to.
Any other outcome than a workable National win is likely to produce at best mixed messages for the housing market. And in such a scenario the path for the market could be rather more bumpy than we've seen in recent years.
Time will tell. But the 'wait and see' period is now with us. And it might be a longer 'wait and see' than anybody really wants or hopes for. Interesting times indeed.
87 Comments
Well I wouldn't hold my breath on the Auckland property market recovering and times soon. Strange how this article doesn't even comment on how the Auckland properties become so detached from wages in the first place. The overseas investors aren't coming back and don't expect FTB' s to fork out several million for a home.
My advice to someone renting, but looking to buy, has been to hold off and watch credit growth/flows. I think the rate of creating of money has more to do with pricing than anything else.
DC, how are you calculating M3 money supply for your chart here? Given the RBNZ has stopped publishing that series, your chart is pretty handy. Be nice if it was kept a little more current.
It's different this time. Last election the credit taps were full open and National's victory was the green light to keep the party going. This time the credit taps have been reduced to a trickle and the election won't open them at all. I think a National win would be business as usual (market continues to slow, downward pressure on prices), a Labour coalition would mean a much bigger slow down as there might a rush for the exits.
The housing bulls said wait for February, wait for Chinese new year, wait for March, wait until April, now wait until the election....looking a bit deeper, the market needs credit, lots of it, and offshore cash, to keep rising rapidly. Neither look like arriving anytime soon.
bill English tweet : "We lead a government delivering for all NZers"
But don’t say this government is delivering for all New Zealanders, when what he means is that it’s delivering for all New Zealanders except the poor, the homeless, the first home buyers, the people suffering depression and mental illness and the one hundred young New Zealanders who take their lives each year.
Hopefully a change of government will ensure all NZers are taken care off
Sounds like you have been watching Jessie Mulligan on 'the Project'. This guy is stepping up us a well informed intelligent presenter. How long beforre the rug gets pulled on him aka john Campbell.
As an aside...watch Judith Collins and her bunch work on undermiing Bill ... she's getting ready to roll him at first op. I bet there is a lot going on in the gutter in the Nat background than we are hearing about.
I found it hilarious that it was Judith Collins fronting up to TVNZ Breakfast about the Barclay crime and saying the usual "move on, nothing to see here, it's a beat up". Why, oh why, would someone with Judith's record of ethics be the choice to talk about the current taxpayer funded hush money and subsequent lies from the PM?
.. this is nothing ... wait til you see what they're like in 2020 ... towards the end of their fourth term in government ... arrogance on steroids , arrogance to the nth degree ...
Geez ... we'll be so hacked off with the Gnats ... we'd even consider voting Greens !
... don'tcha reckon the American's will re-elect Trumpy in 2020 ... perhaps their vision will be 20 / 20 next time around ... " Fool me once ... " as President Bush said ... " shame on you ; fool me twice , shame on me . " ..
If the Trumpster is in need of a new gig , I fully expect he'll see himself as the great reclaimer of American pride , and front up in Orc Land 2020 as the helmsman on the Team Barnacle USA catamaran ...
BBC Where did Trump the Outsourcing Slayer go?
http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-40386807/where-did-trump-the…
This today posted by a professional investor from a Property investor site I belong to - interesting stuff....what do the banks know that we don't......yet? All his words below
"Interesting noises coming out of the client base in the last week regarding banks. Many clients struggling to obtain finance, even strong clients.
1 a client yesterday who was using a second tier lender. Gets to settlement day and the lender had no money. Said they have to wait for them to collect some money in. Might be a week they say. Meanwhile our client is in default.
2 a second client last week. Same as above, gets to settlement and their second tier lender has no cash. They are still waiting. Different lender to above.
3 a client using major trading bank. Looks for bridging finance on their new home. Bank says no. He's 25% geared, $400k income, bank says no. Took us literally an hour to get it re-banked at another bank. Strange. Not a criticism of them, they are a great bank. Just a bit unusual.
There is a weird vibe in credit markets.
Credit squeeze as tight as ive seen it. As bad as the GFC"
I didn't think this would happen this soon. I have had clients where the bank manager moans but it's well within their capacity and parameters for lending.
I'm wondering if banks are running their cash flows close to minimise off-shore funding. Perhaps it's not a good idea for our banks to only have 2% capital to cover their lending.
be very surprised if that was the case.
most finance coys will be parking cash under that scenario. so quite the opposite.
if they are in the property game then it may be that they can't meet demand from the hole left by the banks
Also with respect to bridging finance was the income nz sourced, or foreign?
Yeah, a bull on even higher house prices , and national is the one to do it, greed, they love to hang there hat on the 40% deposit on investor, the slowing of over seas investors slowed the market more likely and the same early this year, funny how immigration hasn't slowed at all and Aucklands housing market keeps slowing, massive oversea investment starting all this and is going to and it, all national or labour or peters can do is slightly change the speed of the correction, locals in Auckland haven't been able to afford houses for over a year in large enough numbers to change the market, where are the buyers coming from, people mocking others that were stupid not leveraging up there homes are in for a lot of pain, blame your mate John key and RBNZ, in 2005 house prices started going up and by 2008 interest rates were 8.5%, interest rates should have started lifting in 2015 and at least 8.5 now, interest rates are upside down, over the next 4 years interest rates should be coming down from 8.5, and people are in such high debt and paying interest only, your comments are fear David but be careful what you wish for, personally the sooner we get back to 2015 prices pain or not national or not the better
"Over the quarter, 7.1 per cent of owner-occupiers resold their home at a loss compared to 12 per cent of investors."
The question was posed the the other day "Why would you sell at a loss?" and the answer is "Because you have to". Getting out early is likely to be the least costly of possible exercises.
http://www.afr.com/real-estate/pain-and-gain-apartment-resale-losses-st…
Top two policy headings:: http://www.labour.org.nz/announced_policies
ban foreign house purchases
increase 2-year bright lines test to 5 years
remove ability to offset property tax losses against other income
build more houses
Cut migration by ~20,000 - 30,000
Did you try reading the party policies?
Labour will simply not be elected because of lacking charisma leaders. Their police may be sound but their ability or track record to deliver may be very questionable.
Plus, Green is NZ version of BaiZuo (White Left, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4R8o56ilQs). Remember 5,000 refugee quota in two years?
Red + Green, a credible government coalition? :DDDDDDDDD
Ah, your post was misleading, it sounded like you were saying no party has policies which would change anything, which is clearly false. Was your actual point that National are sure to be elected and won't change anything? I half agree, they wouldn't change anything significant but I have hopes that they won't get the chance.
As for the rest of your post, you're posting a Fox News link as if they would ever present an impartial view of a left-wing party? Excuse me if I don't see that as worthy of a proper response.
Bill has doubled his charisma since taking over the office. Did you not see him posting a video clip of himself this morning wearing red socks cheering 'Yes! yes!!' when ETNZ crossed the finish line? He is so charming I'd say as he knows how to blend himself into everyday kiwi's living life.
The QV / Core Logic report (June 2017) has just been released and reveals that Auckland house prices are holding firm.
The report concludes: "Rising population combined with a slow rate of house construction will conspire against any significant drops in value."
Since the report was released, we've won the America's Cup - which, clearly, could give a further boost to Auckland house prices.
Alas, my chances of buying that idyllic Ponsonby villa at a sharply discounted price seem to be sailing away from me. What a disappointment!
CJ099 et al, please continue with your attempts to talk the market down. You need to try harder........ I'm relying upon you!
You are very invested in trying to talk the market up. The market is the market.
What I'd suggest is that people don't touch the Auckland market unless they are able to weather the market volatility. Diversification and aiming for property holdings of 10% or less in their portfolio would make for a less stressful time. Treating investments like gambling is irresponsible.
I'd say $20m to $25m+. I wouldn't say that people should exclude the idea of their house taking up a large portion of their holdings but once they buy they need to be investing to shift the percentage of property in their portfolio to a more traditional investment mix. Perhaps buying somewhere outside of Auckland would be a better option (if it's feasible).
Hi Dictator,
You write: "The market is the market."
And therein lies the rub! One has to meet the market - the other way around doesn't happen.
For folks like me, waiting for Auckland house prices to come down would be a poor strategy. The market in Auckland can't be relied upon to stoop down and pick us up.
Nonetheless, guys like you and CJ099 are welcome to continue to try talking the market down. If you're successful, people like me will be enormously grateful to you. Please have no doubts about that.
Let's see what you can come up with next.........
It is quite simple really. Think about all of the projects in play - CRL, Commercial Bay, the construction of all of the new hotels already announced, redevelopment of the waterfront, anything tourism related - these will all become mandatory priorities to be completed pre-cup. There is already a labour shortage of construction workers in Auckland and these other projects will further reduce the labour available to build new houses and apartments. Today's win just locked in some huge capital gains in Auckland over the next 4 years as supply will be further restricted. This doesn't even cover the new tourists posting pictures of our beautiful city and encouraging even more tourism beyond 2021.
I thought this was a pretty interesting claim so I had a little look. We last won the Cup in 95 then in 2000, and according to RBNZ's data NZ house prices in percentage change terms dipped around 5 percentage points, in the following year, each time (to about 5% growth and to below zero, resp.). Haven't found data specifically for Auckland but perhaps someone can chime in with the proof that Auckland shot up by a huge amount, in contrast with the rest of the country?
tothepoint
Are you purposefully using misinformation and attempting to mislead people? The Corelogic report page 19 says (and I quote);
"Nationwide values remain flat......This nationwide picture is largely influenced by weakening values in Auckland, Hamilton and Tauranga"
This can in no way be read that Auckland house prices have held firm. Weakening is not holding firm.
Not seeing much evidence of that, according to the report "Values have continued their slow decline in Auckland, a trend that started late last year"
I guess you're talking year-on-year, but the large rises in the past are starting to fall out of that data. The current direction of travel is not upwards.
It is quite simple really. Think about all of the projects in play - CRL, Commercial Bay, the construction of all of the new hotels already announced, redevelopment of the waterfront, anything tourism related - these will all become mandatory priorities to be completed pre-cup. There is already a labour shortage of construction workers in Auckland and these other projects will further reduce the labour available to build new houses and apartments. Today's win just locked in some huge capital gains in Auckland over the next 4 years as supply will be further restricted. This doesn't even cover the new tourists posting pictures of our beautiful city and encouraging even more tourism beyond 2021.
It is quite simple really. Think about all of the projects in play - CRL, Commercial Bay, the construction of all of the new hotels already announced, redevelopment of the waterfront, anything tourism related - these will all become mandatory priorities to be completed pre-cup. There is already a labour shortage of construction workers in Auckland and these other projects will further reduce the labour available to build new houses and apartments. Today's win just locked in some huge capital gains in Auckland over the next 4 years as supply will be further restricted. This doesn't even cover the new tourists posting pictures of our beautiful city and encouraging even more tourism beyond 2021.
It is quite simple really. Think about all of the projects in play - CRL, Commercial Bay, the construction of all of the new hotels already announced, redevelopment of the waterfront, anything tourism related - these will all become mandatory priorities to be completed pre-cup. There is already a labour shortage of construction workers in Auckland and these other projects will further reduce the labour available to build new houses and apartments. Today's win just locked in some huge capital gains in Auckland over the next 4 years as supply will be further restricted. This doesn't even cover the new tourists posting pictures of our beautiful city and encouraging even more tourism beyond 2021.
Hi gingerninja,
My comments above relate to the section in the report dealing specifically with Auckland.
The lead paragraph of page 34 of the report states: "The majority of Auckland suburbs have seen relatively minimal value change over the past three months."
This is reinforced by the lead paragraph on the next page of the report (page 35) which states: "There has been little change in the average price of Auckland suburbs, with over 100 suburbs still worth more than $1m on average."
So the bleak reality for people like me is that Auckland house prices are pretty much holding firm. Damn it!
Of course, gingerninja, you're welcome to continue trying to talk prices down. May the force be with you!
Am I reading the right report?
http://content.corelogic.co.nz/June/flipbook/index.html?page=32
"Sales volumes in auckland have dropped significantly"
"Values have continued their slow decline in Auckland, a trend that started late last year"
"Falling demand and sales will likely see this weakness continue for several more months at least"
I'm not seeing this report as 'holding firm', are you reading something different?
edit: I see the problem, you're still looking at May's report. I'm afraid things have deteriorated since then.
It's not really an opinion. If someone takes a small piece of information and uses it out of context to evidence their belief, that is commonly called cherry picking.
Putting forward that slanted interpretation and then stating that anyone who disagrees with him is "talking the market down" is trolling. Because he is deliberately trying to evoke a response.
Personally, I like a good troll. Especially an amusing one. So trolling is not necessarily an insult coming from me.
I just don't like information being misrepresented.
Gingerninja and mfd,
You both write rubbish.
The passages I quote (above) come from the very latest QV / Corelogic report - published just a few days ago. Anybody reading this post is free to access a copy of the report and check it out for themselves. Reference is: "Corelogic New Zealand Monthly Property Market Economic Update: May - June 2017"
Specifically, my quotes come from the Auckland section in the part of the report entitled, "Main Cities Housing Market Indicators". The respective passages directly address Auckland house PRICES and are clear for all to see at the top of page 34 and page 35.
Gingerninja and mfd: the report might state things that disappoint you - but so be it. Tough luck for you.
@tothepoint I agree with you. It is on page 34 - 35 on this link: http://content.corelogic.co.nz/June/flipbook/index.html?page=32
This is simply false, your quotes:
'The lead paragraph of page 34 of the report states: "The majority of Auckland suburbs have seen relatively minimal value change over the past three months."
This is reinforced by the lead paragraph on the next page of the report (page 35) which states: "There has been little change in the average price of Auckland suburbs, with over 100 suburbs still worth more than $1m on average."'
are from this report, which is for May-June
http://content.corelogic.co.nz/May2017/index.html?page=34
My quotes are from the more recent report, for June-July
http://content.corelogic.co.nz/June/flipbook/index.html?page=34
Yeah looks like those in AKL city property prices are going to have to slip a lot more (Probably from September onward), China is going to want its money back from those money launders that they're clamping down on.
Reuters article: China to bolster oversight of overseas transactions on Chinese bank cards
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-forex-banks-idUSKBN18T198
Why Auckland should be the capital of New Zealand...
https://ilovenz.me/culture/why-auckland-capital-of-new-zealand/
Auckland has an atrociously slow rate of construction. National are useless and have done nothing to solve the problem.
Labour NZ has a policy promise to remove the restrictive RUB that is causing the slow construction. Yay Labour promises.
Labour Auckland made and keeps the same daft RUB that causes the problem. The Labour party in Auckland promised a compact city and has now built suburbs everywhere across the region.
Labour is also useless.
The useless versus the useless.
I actually don't think it will make that much of a difference to the housing market, who gets elected. There are 3 possible scenarios:
1) National has a majority - nothing much will change
2) National will govern with NZ First - Still nothing much will change, Winston may, only may be able to slow immigration a little
3) Labour & the Greens & NZ First will govern - they will all try to push through their policies and not much will be achieved, still not much will change
You know it's not surprising that the Boomers and National and so terrified that NZ property bubbles could and will burst or at least deflate.
Just take a look at page 8 of that Corelogic report and you suddenly realize just how big Nationals false economy has grown. We're now so dependent on residential property that it dwarfs all our other assets classes and we now have $239 billion in home loans.
http://content.corelogic.co.nz/June/flipbook/index.html?page=8
It is funny that many people seem to think that house prices are like a ratchet, that only goes up. But a house is only worth what someone is prepared to pay for it. The government has always said that it was a supply and demand problems, so using their logic, once supply eventually catches up to demand, prices may fall back.
All we have really done is buy an sell houses to each other, making other NZers get bigger and bigger loans. That may have been fueled in part by overseas buyers getting in the mix. But apart from creating some new homes, we haven't increased NZs overseas earnings.
It is worse than that.
Based on current population growth demands, there will never be an oversupply of housing in Auckland.
Auckland does not create new houses, with one of the slowest new building construction rates in the world.
This means Auckland prices will never fall if demand is constant, but also Auckland prices will never stop falling if demand is variable.
By 2018 there will be an oversupply of housing in all of Australasia except Auckland. By next year demand will have enormous options available to leave the Auckland market. It is unlikely demand will stay constant in Auckland.
https://www.domain.com.au/news/only-a-matter-of-time-before-oversupply-…
People never learn from history. I remember last time we won the Americas Cup all in sundry were buying property on the Shore and in Whangaparoa, Jeffery Archer was just one of the people I remember.
Prices and demand for houses rocketed.
After we lost the cup, the market came back substantially and many of these people lost most of their money.
The Americas Cup is great news for Auckland Central.
Because Auckland has insanely high land costs, building low cost apartments in Auckland doesn't make sense and so very few get built. What we need is a bunch of super rich clients who want to purchase new mega-expensive apartments.
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