A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; Fixed home loan rates get new low offers, house asking prices down, WMP shines in dairy auction, swaps and NZD stable, and much, much more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Heartland Bank chopped all its fixed rates today to market-leading levels. Details here. First CU cut its floating rate today to 7.69%. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes today, but this review might be helpful. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

THE LESSONS OF ECON 101 BEING LEARNED AGAIN
The high volume of homes listed for sale appears to be pushing asking prices down. Average asking price of homes for sale on Realestate.co.nz dropped by almost -$29,000 in October while stock levels were at an almost 10-year high.

BEHIND THE WOODSHED 'CONVERSATION'
Commerce Commission Chairman John Small says 'cordial discussion' with a CEO of a bank 'recalcitrant' on open banking has proved fruitful. They won't name the 'big bank'.

WMP SAVES THE DAY
Dairy prices edged up slightly again in this morning's latest full dairy auction, but that doesn't really tell the story of this event properly. With the local milk production season now past its peak, lesser volumes were on offer. And buyers seem to have already stocked up for Christmas and Chinese New Year. So it will be no surprise to know that most commodities slipped in price today - apart from a +4.1% surge in the WMP price. Almost alone, this twisted the overall index to a +1.2% rise in USD terms, and a +1.6% rise in NZD terms.

BREAKING A HIGH-FEE MODEL
The Commerce Commission chalked up another 'win' today. They have got Valocity to change their captive valuation and pricing model to open it up to all-comers so that more competitive fees can be an option.

'CREAMING IT'
The ANZ World Commodity Price Index increased +2.9% in November from October, driven up primarily by stronger dairy prices. In New Zealand dollar terms, the gain was more significant, with the +5.2% lift in the index on the same basis supported by a +1.0% fall in the NZD Trade Weighted Index. Year-on-year the respective rises were +17.6% and +19.2%.

WHAT'S MEASURED IS MANAGED? MAYBE, MAYBE NOT
The FMA complimented big business today on the 'huge effort' those businesses have made making mandatory climate reports on their businesses. Who reads this stuff? It is truly a mountain of bureaucracy. Hopefully it will move the dial, but that is still to be seen. Still, first steps, eh. And it is probably a good job there is no longer a Productivity Commission.

CENSUS HOUSING INSIGHT
At the time of the 2023 Census, at least 112,496 people (2.3% of the census usually resident population) were estimated to be severely housing deprived. This is an increase of around 13,000 on the 99,462 people (2.1% of the population) estimated for 2018, according to figures released by Stats NZ today.

NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. The NZX50 is down -1.3% as Fletcher Building, Turners Automotive, Tourism Holdings, and Freightways all post significant losses. Warehouse Group and Serko lead the gainers. For the same reason we note below, there may not be an NZX equity market update tomorrow.

EXOTIC FORESTRY LIMITS COMING
The Government has announced rules to limit farm to forestry conversions entering the Emissions Trading Scheme. The changes include a moratorium on exotic forestry registrations for some targeted actively farmed land, an annual registration cap of 15,000 hectares for exotic forestry registrations on other farmland, and allowing up to 25% of a farm’s land to be planted in forestry for the ETS, ensuring farmers retain flexibility and choice. The main farming lobby group, Federated Farmer, welcomed the restrictions.

NO WOOLLEN CARPETING IN SCHOOLS
But Fed Farmers is apoplectic over an Education Ministry decision not to buy woolen carpeting for schools. The Ministry decision was one based on cost.

PLENTY OF SUPPLY
Kiwibank's five year bond fundraising has been very successful. The raised $500 mln at a rate of 4.75% for these unsecured, unsubordinated fixed rate Notes. They were looking for "at least $100 mln".

AGGREGATOR SUCCESS WITH OPM
Online investment platform InvestNow says it now has $2 bln in funds under management. They had 30% growth in the past year and much of that revolves around their flexible KiwiSaver options, which basically allows savers to mix-and-match different funds from different Schemes. Individuals can't do that. InvestNow's onboarding process is very easy so advisers are attracted to this process. InvestNow started in 2017. But for reference, Simplicity now has $7.5 bln FUM. Simplicity started in 2016.

INTERNATIONAL STUDENTS RETURN IN NUMBERS
The international education sector is rebounding strongly, up +24% year-on-year and +6% above 2023 totals. With 73,535 enrolments between January to August 2024, more enrolments have been achieved in just two terms this year than we saw in all of last year. But these levels are still lower than pre-pandemic.

LESS NEEDED FOR RETIREMENT?

The Retirement Income Interest Group (RIIG) says the savings balance needed at 65 could be 40% smaller than what’s assumed is needed to get through retirement. There are now around 589,000 private households in New Zealand where the oldest member is aged 65 and over. The RIIG has released a report which analysed spending patterns through retirement, with the research suggesting that 'real spending' for retirees reduces by around 2% for each year of retirement. Older retirees were found to spend less than younger retirees although the rate of spending decrease was higher for single retirees compared to retirees who were a couple. The report recommended that the retirement industry and government agencies consider how to reflect how real spending reduces through retirement.

PLEASE NOTE
This 4pm daily review may or may not appear tomorrow. December 5 is the day of our annual end-of-year staff function. We have a lot to celebrate with record readership levels. (A pity about the revenue growth however, but we are not alone with that undershoot.Please support us using the link at the top of every page or the bottom of every story) We will have limited service during the day - so apologies in advance if we miss something.

SLUGGISH - A GDP MISS
The Aussies released their Q3-2024 GDP result today and it came in with a somewhat surprising miss. Some analysts had expected a surprise, but to the high side given recent data (based largely on the spending surge by their Federal government). But few saw this downside miss coming. The Australian economy grew by +0.3% in Q3-2024, following a +0.2% increase in the prior three quarters. This marked the 12th straight period of quarterly growth but fell short of market expectations of +0.4%. And year-on-year the rise was +0.8% instead of the expected +1.0%. That miss involves -A$15.4 bln. In nominal terms the Aussie economy was expected record AU$2 tln in annual economic activity in the year to September 2024. But with this miss, it didn't quite make it. Markets noticed. The AUD fell -20 bps on the news. The AU10yr slipped -6 bps on the news after having risen strongly in advance (it may still book a daily gain on international forces). The ASX200 which was already -0.4% prior to the news fell to be -0.7% lower after.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed again today. Most analysts don't see them falling much from here. Our chart below will record the final positions. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp from this time yesterday, now at 4.34% but is likely to fall further. The China 10 year bond rate has fallen again to a new all-time low of under 1.99%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +5 bps at 4.48% while today's RBNZ fix was 4.38% and also down -3 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.23% and up +4 bps. Their 2yr is still at 4.18%, so that positive curve is now +5 bps.

EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The NZX50 has fallen -1.4% in late trade today. The ASX200 was down -0.7% in afternoon trade but is stabilising less than this now. Tokyo is down -0.4% at their open. Hong Kong is down -0.6% at its open and Shanghai is down -0.4%. Singapore is starting up +0.5%. Wall Street ended its Tuesday session unchanged on the S&P500.

OIL RISES
The oil price is up +US$2 from yesterday, now at US$70/bbl in the US, and US$73.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

RENEWED INTEREST FOR CARBON CREDITS
The carbon price is minorly firmer today at US$63.80/NZU today. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint. Over 4 million units sold at today’s Government auction of NZUs, the highest volume traded all year. Units traded at the floor price of $64/NZU, which will increase to $68 next year. There were 10 participants in the auction and all were successful in securing units. (H/T ANZ)

GOLD FIRMISH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$5 from this time yesterday, now at US$2640/oz.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from where were this time yesterday, still at 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 90.9 AUc. And against the euro we are down -20 bps at 55.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still at 68.3 and little-changed.

BITCOIN FIRMISH
The bitcoin price has eased up to US$96,332 and up +0.9% from where we were this time yesterday. Volatility of the past 24 hours has remained modest at just over +/- 1.6%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».