Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news the world's dominant financial market is closed today, so this will be a thin report. Wall Street will be back in a limited capacity tomorrow (their Friday).
In the US, a record 80 mln people are expected to travel at least 100 kms this holiday weekend.
But the Canadians are not on their Thanksgiving holiday break. They have it on the second Monday in October, so it has already been for them.
And new data shows on average, Canadians work 33.5 hours per week. But payroll earnings are rising, up +5.2% in September from a year ago. That is a faster pace than recently. The growth in average weekly earnings can reflect a range of factors, including changes in wages, composition of employment, and hours worked.
The Bank of Korea cut its base rate by -25 bps yesterday to 3.0% during its November meeting. It was a cut not expected and was the second straight month of rate reductions, bringing borrowing costs to their lowest level since October 2022.
In China, the CCP top leadership is apparently very concerned about 'social stability' risks. A top national official has been out telling local officials to strengthen “risk prevention and control at the source”. He said that “it is necessary to rely on technology for police force and combat effectiveness, deeply mine the "rich mine" of legal data, strengthen data identification, screening, analysis and evaluation, and find ways to identify and screen out potential risks". They don't want to fix the problem, rather quash it.
In Hong Kong, prices for private residences stopped falling in October. The smallest units, 40m2 and smaller, saw a +4.3% rise from September, ending a long decline that started in 2019. But those are still -7.8% lower than a year ago, and down -27% since mid 2019. The broader market is down -9.9% in the year. The interruption of the decline was due to the cancellation of some stamp duties and the opening up the market to mainland Chinese buyers
The EU sentiment surveys were broadly stable in November.
In Australia, private capital investment rose +1.1% in Q3-2023. And that was despite a -1.9% drop in the mining sector. And you can see that in the distribution by State. New South Wales led the way with a +3.6% rise followed by Victoria's +3.2% gain. The largest falls were in South Australia (-11%) and the Northern Territory (-17%). WA was down too, but a lesser -1.3%. Large building projects involving large scale upgrades in the manufacturing sector, and large data centre projects, were the drivers. Many companies in this survey say they plan an investment surge in 2025. Westpac described the trend as a "once in a generation structural change".
As part of a last-minute set of deals to get most of its agenda passed in preparation for their 2025 federal election, their government has accepted a Green Party inspired compromise to split the RBA board in two, one for rate setting, and another for governance. The Green's goal was to force the RBA to cut rates, killing the RBA's independence, but it is not clear this aspect was achieved.
Container freight rates are down another -2% last week from the week before. Outbound China to the USWC saw the largest fall, down -5% in the week. Bulk cargo rates are down -7% in a week. That now puts them -34% lower than a year ago, but a year ago was when they suddenly spiked.
The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.24% and unchanged from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is still positive, but only by +1 bp. Their 1-5 curve inversion is inverted by -21 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is unchanged at -40 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.42% and up +2 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.06%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -6 bps from this time yesterday at 4.48% and back to where it was six weeks ago.
Wall Street is closed today for their holiday. But they will open tomorrow for some brief trading. Overnight European markets were firmish with London up +0.1% and Frankfurt up +0.8%. Tokyo ended its Thursday up +0.6%. Hong Kong however was down -1.2% and Shanghai fell -0.4%. Singapore ended up +0.8%. The ASX200 was up +0.4%. But the NZX50 fell a rather sharp -1.2%.
The price of gold will start today at US$2642/oz and virtually unchanged, down just -US$1 from this time yesterday.
Oil prices are little-changed, still just over US$68.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$72.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.9 USc and down -20 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we down -30 bps at 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we unchanged at 55.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 68.4, and down -20 bps from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$95,260 and down -0.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.4%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
34 Comments
The CCP seeks to quash perceived problems arising in the nation’s society. Maybe even squash.Should have the requisite apparatus readily available. The immense population has been controlled by the regime for 75 odd years. Very few now would remember anything being different. That’s life.
https://www.globalresearch.ca/a-timeline-of-cia-atrocities/5348804
'The CIA trains the dictator’s security apparatus to crack down on the traditional enemies of big business, using interrogation, torture and murder. The victims are said to be “communists,” but almost always they are just peasants, liberals, moderates, labor union leaders, political opponents and advocates of free speech and democracy. Widespread human rights abuses follow.'
:)
excellent piece. No way to ensure it's complete accuracy of course, but much of what it contains is easily verified through other sources. The bit about the Whitlam government in Australia is interesting. does anyone know what the ultimatum given to the GG was? I also wondered if they've fiddle in NZ's political history? Reading this I'd think very likely.
NZ = Norm Kirk - I remember the rumours.
Cheers. i don't recall the rumours but that article identifying his legacy is impressive. Certainly a man to represent all Kiwis. Its a pity today's politicians are not more like him.
Makes you wonder though, how did Lange get away with it? He was rabidly anti-American. I don't think Helen Clark was a great fan of them either, but she was probably too self serving and easily manipulated.
I see Putin is talking about the new president having superior intellect…. After a deal
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/28/putin-threatens-kyiv-ores…
Except that Putin would undoubtedly consider himself to be of a superior intellect. Trump though has proven himself to be an entirely unconventional prospect politically, domestically and globally. That inherent unpredictability is always going to be something of challenge to his counterparts.
more inflation...I was just advised a 41.7% increase in Microsoft 365 monthly subscription ($12 to $17)
apparently so i can have the AI CoPilot I never requested
That AI CoPilot that as far as I am aware you get 60 "AI Credits" per month so you're effectively limited in how many times you can use it. On our family subscription, only the parent account can use the AI not any of the family member accounts.
But never fear, you can purchase additional AI credits if you run out.
What are people's thoughts on this?
High-income workers lose unjustified dismissal claim rights under new policy (link)
Sounds like it's an attempt by the government to put in place rules that would allow them to eviscerate the senior civil service on a policy whim.
Having worked with dinosaurs in the civil service who I wish could just be sacked and moved on I kind of like the idea but having just watched Simeon literally pass evidence free, harmful transport policy that will fuck us over for years to come I think that there needs to be some sort of check and balances on ministerial powers, given we have no second chamber. Long term civil servants at least have the experience to be bale to put forward a case to Minister's and have it heard when they make up nonsense policies.
If you see what Trump is doing in the US, basically sacking any civil servant that he thinks does not agree with his extreme policies then this is probably the inspiration.
TLDR - like it in principle, don't support it in practice as it will be abused for short-term political gain.
It's the thin end of the wedge to "employment at will" (of the employer, as USA) instead of "employment as of right" (of the employee, as NZ, UK, Oz)
Having worked my entire 50year career in the private sector, 90% in multinationals with no excuses for failure I know how demanding & soul destroying that culture can be. But it does deliver results, no bad thing to be attempted in the public sector.
From your link it seems to assume the "Peter Principle" is universal "You’ve got someone in the workforce who is maybe quite skilled, got a good attitude, but if you push them up to that next leadership level into management, you know, if it doesn’t work out and they aren’t a good fit, this allows you to move them on.” It's more common that legends in their own mind ceaselessly promote themselves & then blame their staff when things go wrong.
Autralia just cannot help themselves. They just had a formal review of the RBA which led to Lowe leaving, now they've gone back again further whittled away it's independence. They are an incredibly bureaucratic nanny state propped up by resources. I think we Kiwi's have rose-tinted glases when it comes to Australia. Holes and houses, that's it. If you think our economy is property obsessed, they take it to another dimension. Labour are blaming the RBA for holding rates higher than need be when they are the ones creating inflation.
Rose tinted? You only just worked that out mate? It’s entertaining listening to all the wankers mouthing off about how they’re sick of it here and they’re moving to Australia. It’s like a threat that if things don’t improve in NZ quick smart then off they go to Oz. I say good news, see ya later, please don’t come back.
"...bureaucratic nanny state" ?
the latest virtue signalling dog whistle (no penalties for young people or parents who flout the rules, just ask Musk for the $50M fine)
Kids under 16 to be banned from social media after Senate passes world-first laws - ABC News
I don't know what they're worried about, we've been running at a much higher rate than they are without any problem according to our politicians:
Keir Starmer speaks after new UK net migration peak of 906,000
Keir Starmer admitted he must bring down immigration today after shock figures showed the annual record has been smashed again.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.