A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; services struggling still, eyes on housing market turn, producer costs under up pressure, scam coordination coming, swaps & NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
First Credit Union cut its 6-18 month TD rates. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

'STRUGGLING FOR TRACTION'
The service sector continues to struggle, and shrink. Activity levels in the economy's engine room remain at contractionary levels even if the contraction rate is slowing. But 'the here and now remains extremely challenging'.

THE END IS NIGH?
Latest figures real estate data points to a possible end of the current buyer's market but it's too early to break out the champagne just yet. However, the overhang of unsold properties is shrinking and the number of properties being withdrawn from the market is in decline.

COST PRESSURES TURN UP
In the September quarter, producer input costs rose +5.0% from the same period a year ago. That is an acceleration, up +1.9% from the June quarter. And this latest data is the fastest rise since December 2022. Driving these rises were electricity costs, insurance, and transport costs. Only the electricity cost pressure is likely to have eased in Q4.

BUT NOT ON THE FARM
Those same costs suspects hit farm expenses, but the overall pressure was much more restrained, up just +0.4% from the same 2023 quarter. Keeping a lid on them was a sharp fall in interest costs (-4.5% pa), fuel (-5.0%) and fertiliser (-2.6%).

NOR FOR CAPITAL GOODS
The cost of capital goods isn't rising with any special pressure, up +2.1% from the September quarter in 2023.

NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. NZX, Gentrack, Spark, and Tower posted gains, while Infratil, Contact Energy, Tourism Holdings, and The Warehouse Group led the declines.

THE RBNZ's CALCULUS
We have had a 4% one year swap rate, essentially unchanged, for seven straight weeks now. The 90 day bank bill rate has been stable at about 4.5% for three straight weeks. On one hand OIS pricing sees a -50 bps OCR cut coming. On the other, some short markets aren't flagging any change. Our longer rates have been rising (in response to expected Trump inflation), so our 1-5 swap curve is suddenly no longer inverted. And our 1-5 NZGB curve has also turned positive for the first time since 2022. It isn't known what the RBNZ thinks of the ending of inverted rate curves although it is unlikely they will be disappointed.

MORE COORDINATION TO SCAM FIGHTING
Minister for Commerce, Andrew Bayly will take charge of the government’s efforts to fight online scammers in a more coordinated approach to the growing problem. He said the work done to-date had been “siloed, disjointed and, in many cases, unsophisticated” and involved five other ministers/ministries. He also plans to work with ministers in Australia and Singapore to set up a regional response to scams. He wants solutions to be industry-led, and has reportedly invited banks, social media companies, and big telcos to meet with relevant government agencies next month. Bayly said new data showed Kiwis had lost almost $200 mln to scammers in the past year.

JAPAN'S MACHINERY ORDERS SLIP
Japan's core machinery orders, which exclude those for ships and electric power companies, slipped by -0.7% in September from August, in the red for the third straight month and missing market expectations for a +1.9% gain. Year on year, these are -4.8% lower. Export orders held up relatively well, however.

SINGAPORES EXPORTS SLIP
Singaporean exports turned down in October. The fell by -4.6% from the same month a year ago, reversing from a downwardly revised +0.9% rise in September. It marked the first decline in since June, due to a fall in non-electronic exports. Non-electronic shipments slumped -6.7%.

"BE PERFECT OR WE'LL SUE"
In Australia, regulator ASIC has taken NAB (BNZ's parent) to court alleging it ignored hardship support for 345 "vulnerable customers" between 2018 and 2023 (about 60 per year), saying the failure to respond broke the Australian credit code. NAB has about 10 mln customers and about 35,000 staff. The chances it got something wrong for 0.0006% of their customers in a year is almost a certainty.

SWAP RATES STAY ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably starting the week with little-change. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -2 bps at 4.43%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps from this morning to 4.66%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp to just on 2.10%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 4.80% while the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.75% and down -1 bp from Friday. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.44% and down -3 bps. Their 2yr is down -6 bps to 4.30%, so that curve is now more positive, now by +14 bps.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is up +0.5% in late Monday trade. The ASX200 is unchanged in afternoon trade today. Tokyo has opened with a -0.6% retreat. However Hong Kong is up +0.8% at its open and Shanghai is up +0.6%. Singapore is down -0.1%. Wall Street futures are sending signals the S&P500 will open tomorrow up +0.7%.

OIL HOLDS
The oil price is unchanged from this morning, still at US$67/bbl in the US, and at just over US$71/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE STAYS FIRM
The carbon price is still firmer today, but on higher volumes, holding at $63.80/NZU. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD TURNS UP
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$24 from this morning, now at US$2586/oz.

NZD FIRMS MARGINALLY
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this morning, now at 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are also up +10 bps at 90.6 AUc. And against the euro we are unchanged at 55.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 68.5 and slightly firmer.

BITCOIN LITTLE-CHANGED
The bitcoin price has risen +0.6% from this morning, now at US$90,825. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest also at just under +/- 0.6%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».