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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; few retail rate changes, B&T's listings surge, auctions go regional, Westpac profit rises, livestock prices firm, car sales hang in, swaps flat, NZD firmish, & more

Economy / news
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; few retail rate changes, B&T's listings surge, auctions go regional, Westpac profit rises, livestock prices firm, car sales hang in, swaps flat, NZD firmish, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

PERSONAL LOAN RATE CHANGE
FinanceNow reduced its minimum personal loan rate by -100 bps to 11.95%, although they kept their maximum at 29.95% (not a typo).

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
The Bank of India trimmed all its TD rates 9 months and longer. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

LISTING SURGE, LOWER SALES TRANSACTIONS, PRICE FIRM
Dominant Auckland realtor Barfoot & Thompson said their sales volumes slipped declined in October from September but median and average prices rose, and new listings surged to a record high. (A slip in sales volumes in October from September last happened in 2017.)

AUCTION ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE REGIONS
There were fewer auctions in Auckland last week but higher numbers in the regions. 188 properties sold of the 428 brought to market this way. The sales rate has hovered between 41% and 44% in all but two of the last 10 weeks, even as the number of properties being auctioned has risen considerably in that time.

NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm.& Serko, Stride and AirNZ top the gainers, Freightways, The Warehouse, and a2Milk are among the biggest decliners.

PROFIT UP AS FIXED LOAN RATES FALL FOR SOME
Annual profit up for Westpac NZ as income rises and loan impairments fall. Profit is up +16% and they note that a quarter of fixed home loan customers will be on lower rates by year's end.

FIRMER LIVESTOCK PRICES MAY NOT LAST
Some livestock schedule prices are rising. Although market conditions have remained largely unchanged, demand from China for products arriving for China New year, is providing price support. And buyers for the UK, & EU holiday periods are also keeping prices firm. The US beef market remains stable. In all cases a low NZD is helping as well. However, venison prices are under pressure with Silver Fern Farms making cuts to their schedule. And it is worth noting that processors are not offering premiums this year for early commitment of prime livestock for the December period. Lamb producers should watch the live-shipment shifts in Australia. If they are stopped, competitive pressure will pile on from that quarter. Prices from specific processors are in our rural price database.

NEW CAR DEMAND HANGING IN THERE
There were 9504 new passenger cars sold in October, almost +1000 more than in September, but -5.4% less than in October 2023. (The average for an October month in the prior ten years has been 10,100.) The NEV share is about half at 4560, of which only 648 were EVs, the rest hybrids. (Commercial vehicle sales in October stayed low at 2820, similar to last year, but well below its ten year average of ~3900.)

AUSSIE INFLATION PERSISTS ALTHOUGH IN RANGE
In Australia, the Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge recorded a rise in both monthly and annual inflation during October. The monthly rise (+0.4%) was the most since July. But the annual rise (+2.1%) is still within the RBA's desired range. The monthly and annual cost of living also rose across selected household types (age pensioners, pensioners and beneficiaries, employees, government transfer recipients, and self-funded retirees).

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed to start the week - again. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -3 bps at 4.48%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps from this morning at 4.61%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.14%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +13 bps from this morning, now at 4.53% while the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.57% and up +8 bps from Friday. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.32% and down -7 bps from this morning. Their 2yr is unchanged at 4.21%, so that curve is now less positive, by +11 bps.

EQUITIES MOSTLY FIRMER
The NZX50 is up +0.1% in late Monday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.3% in afternoon trade today. Tokyo has opened down -2.6%. Hong Kong is up +0.4% at its open. Shanghai is up +0.5%. Singapore is also up +0.5%. Wall Street is signaled to open Monda up +0.5% in after-hours S&P500 futures trade.

OIL FIRMER
The oil price is up +US$1 from this morning, just on US$70.50/bbl in the US, and just on US$74.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE UNCHANGED
The carbon price unchanged again today, still at $63/NZU in unremarkable trade. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$3 from this morning, now at US$2739/oz.

NZD FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from this morning, now at 60 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 90.8 AUc. And against the euro we are up +10 bps at 55.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up +10 bps at 68.8.

BITCOIN RECOVERS
The bitcoin price has risen +1.1 from this morning, now at US$68,931. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.4%.

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ
Source: RBNZ
Source: RBNZ
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Source: RBNZ
Source: RBNZ
Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

Select chart tabs

Source: NZFMA
Source: NZFMA
Source: NZFMA
Source: NZFMA
Source: NZFMA
Source: NZFMA
Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

31 Comments

Mortgage debt and house prices are leaving millions of Aussie workers worse off despite enjoying better wages. Many are fleeing to the regions for economic survival. 

Pretty decent MSM (The Age) analysis here:

- Sydney would be shrinking if not for migration.

- Financial benefits to city living overridden by housing costs.

- Status quo damaging productivity growth.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/priced-out-and-fleeing-to-th…

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The average mortgage in NSW reached $779,239 in September, an increase of 3 per cent or $22,418 over the past year. Victoria’s average mortgage climbed by 3.5 per cent to $614,730.

So Melbourne can’t be as cheap as people make it out to be?

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Who said Melbourne’s property is significantly cheaper? It’s fairly similar to Auckland. I for one have never denied that.

However, in a significant number of roles you can earn 15-20% more. You get 6% Super contribution. Many things are a bit cheaper than in NZ. Fuel is much cheaper. 
So spending power in terms of housing is better, assuming you land a role that pays much better than equivalent in NZ

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Transport better and quality of housing much better for equivalent price. 

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i thought aussie gave you 10-12% about to increase re contributions (ie you do not put ANY OF YOUR OWN MONEY IN.....)

think about that - someone else pays for your contribs..... 

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Not only Sydney

For many many years internal migration in NZ has been net out of Auckland.  Out.

The only reason it grows is international migration.

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Housing migrants is the new killer business in the UK to make out like a bandit with revenue coming directly from the public sector. This makes the Aotearoa property game look tame. 

The 'king' of Britain's migrant hotels is raking in £4.8million per day and may become a billionaire from the money earned through housing immigrants in the UK.

Graham King, a former caravan park and disco tycoon, was catapulted onto the Rich List this year after cashing in on accommodating and transporting arrivals due to the UK's migrant crisis.

The 57-year-old - who has an estimated net worth of £750million - owns an Essex business which was paid £1.74billion last year and claimed this was due to the increase in refugees.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14034971/Migrant-hotel-king-ca…

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The UK really has become some sort of dystopian nightmare. Read up about it, it defies belief - makes us look great.

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Yes. Of course those countries who refuse to participate - Hungary and Poland for example - are seen as pariahs, even though the wokesters don't seem to criticise them openly. 

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I thought they brexited to reduce immigration?

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 thought' doesn't fit the rest of your comment. 

The ordinary Brits, pi--ed off at continued reduction in ability to manoeuvre, voted one finger to the establishment. 

Which was still in control. And still needs GROWTH - of anything. 

Point being; They aren't the same cohort. 

 

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Have you seen the UK van life community? It's huge. People just fed up with crazy rent prices and utilities.  It's not the UK I remember 

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Could work for a while, what could go wrong

 

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Van life sounds like a pretty good option for young people. Cruise around Europe in the van, then do some work and save some cash for the next trip. 

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The UK really has become some sort of dystopian nightmare. Read up about it, it defies belief - makes us look great.

And yet the coalition is literally using the same playbook the Tories used for 14 years to run it into the ground. If you want to see how that plays out look at the UK.

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Fairly succinct and balanced summary of their 14 years in power. With credit for their climate policies and maintaining education standards. Pretty much everything else 👎

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Indeed!

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I see Auckland City has quietly pushed out the date for the 2024 July property valuations to '2025'. I had a laugh with my neighbour a couple of months ago predicting they would find an excuse to push out the date. I'm guessing there are lobbies that don't want 15% devaluations recorded. The last excuse next year could be software issues lol

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will be a covfefe issue that delays the next release.....

big problem Rodney is down like 2% (Mainly because some &&&&&head keeps going up) vs Remuera which is sucking a kumera.... so

what do they do here.....    howls of pain from the villa and mansion owners...

 

 

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Would mean cheaper rates in Remuera and increases in Rodney. 

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it could do, but my subdivision will probably cover it.

 

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The big problem is peoples perception that their property valuation has a direct relationship with their rates. If the valuations go down then there will be thousands of people out with their pitchforks expecting their rates to drop, it doesn't work like that. The solution, push it out to 2025 when prices go up again.

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Yep reality can kick ass sometimes...............  

When everyone is leaning to one side of the boat, the opposite trade can suddenly make you a lot of money.

 

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All relative to the median. If the median is down 15% and your suburb is down 15%, no change in rates. Just makes people feel poorer.

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That’s a nice conspiracy! 

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CRE apocalypse going from strength to strength. Wolfie Richter drills down on the hard data. Deliquencies now as bad as and looking be be potentially far worse than the GFC. 

Federal officials shut down The First National Bank of Lindsay in Oklahoma for alleged fraud, citing “false and deceptive bank records” that indicated a depletion of the bank’s capital. Heavily exposed to real estate. 

The delinquency rate of office mortgages backing commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) spiked to 9.4% in October, up a full percentage point from September, and the highest since the worst months of the meltdown that followed the Financial Crisis. The delinquency rate has doubled since June 2023 (4.5%), according to data by Trepp, which tracks and analyzes CMBS.

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/11/04/office-cmbs-delinquency-rate-spikes-t…

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I love the smell of default in the morning....

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Rainbows and lollipops about to emerge any day down here  

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How widespread is this practice is the real question. Like the GFC, it will be rife and if exposed, cause another meltdown. Banks will do anything for profit, and to hide the dodgy part of work they do in order to keep the money rolling in. Guess we'll have to wait to see any potential contagion.

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