Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
TSB will cut its carded fixed rates from Monday. Details here. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Heartland Bank has cut all its rates for terms 3 to 18 months. AMP has cut them 3-12 months. WBS has also cut TD rates. Heartland cut its savings rates too with its Digital Saver rate now at 4.50% and its Direct Saver rate now down to 4.00%. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
MIGRATION PRESSURES EASE
Net population growth from migration has dropped back to pre-Covid levels and is now running just over +50,000 per year. A year ago, that gain was almost +130,000. But more NZers are now leaving long term, more than -80,000 in the year to August. That breaks down to a net loss of -56,000 NZ citizens in the year to August and a net gain of +110,000 citizens of other countries.
FOOD COST PRESSURES STAY LOW
Food price data is more current. Stats NZ says food prices have climbed +1.2% in the year to September, but fruit and vegetable prices have fallen -8.3% in the same period, led by declining kūmara and potato prices. As low at the +1.2% increase level seems, it is still more than in any month since February this year
TOURISM HASN'T RECOVERED
Tourism arrivals remain lackluster, not yet back to pre-pandemic levels. Queenstown is a bright spot, with tourism well ahead (+20%) of pre-pandemic levels, but elsewhere it is still dragging. At the key Auckland arrival point it is still only at 80%. A big part of that drag is inbound tourism from China.
RENTS, AND PETROL, FALL
Stats NZ monitors other price indexes monthly, including for rents, airfares, and petrol. None of these are adding to inflationary pressures. In fact, most are showing retreats.
NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Due to a technical snafu, we don't have our regular, separate NZX update today. Back on Monday. But the quick summary is the here is no change to the NZX50 in today's trade. But the NZX50 is up +1.0% for the week. Today's gainers (44) were led by Green Cross Health, Scales, and Infratil. The losers (37) were led by usual suspects, including Eroad, Rakon, and the Warehouse.
FACTORY SECTOR STILL VERY WEAK
The Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) improved slightly from 46.1 to 46.9 in September. While the PMI remains firmly in contraction, this is its third consecutive month of recovery since its trough of 41.4 in June. The lift in business confidence and the activity outlook for manufacturing in recent business surveys is a contrast against the PMI still well below 50. Despite moving in the right direction, ongoing weakness is consistent with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cutting interest rates.
SOUTH KOREA EASING TOO
In South Korea, they have started cutting their policy rates too, although not as aggressively as New Zealand. The Bank of Korea policy rate is now 3.25% after its first rate cut (-25 bps) since May 2020. That came after data showed their GDP shrank in Q2-2024 and their September inflation slowed to 1.6%, the lowest since February 2021.
SWAP RATES LOWER
Wholesale swap rates are probably lower today. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down another -1 bp to 4.64%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged at 4.26%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 2.15%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps from this time yesterday at 4.44%. And the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.39% and up +6 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.07% and down -19 bps from yesterday. Their 2yr is now at 3.96%, so that curve is now positive by +10 bps and a fast correction from yesterday.
EQUITIES TAME, EXCEPT IN CHINA
The NZX50 is little-changed in its late Friday trade (see above). The ASX200 is down -0.1% in afternoon trade. And Tokyo is up +0.6% at its open. Hong Kong is on holiday today. Shanghai has started with a -1.7% fall. There are doubts about what Beijing will announce tomorrow. Singapore is trading up +0.3% at its open. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade with the S&P500 down a minor -0.2% and off its highs.
OIL RISES
The oil price is up +US$2 from this time yesterday at just on US$75.50/bbl in the US, and up to US$79/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE FIRM
The carbon price rose marginally today to $62.75/NZU. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RISES
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$27 from this time yesterday, now at US$2635/oz.
NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar has firmed +10 bps from yesterday, now at 60.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 90.4 AUc. And against the euro we are up +30 bps at 55.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is little-changed at 68.9 from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN DOWN AGAIN
The bitcoin price is down -0.5% from this time yesterday, now at US$60,401. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.0%.
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31 Comments
It is typically around 1.75% (for a loan with a 20% deposit), but they vary significantly depending on how competitive a bank wants to be. In July and August, the difference was higher, probably because the banks had no idea in which direction the OCR was heading.
this is the best view
So many houses are going on the market in Wellington, probably a mix of reasons: looking for better opportunities overseas, upsizing/downsizing house and being forced out of a job.
You can't walk your dog for more than a block at a time without it trying to pee on an Open Home sign.
The Fed’s balance sheet is now at its lowest level since September 2020, down $1.9 trillion from its peak in April 2022.
So how much more QT is needed to unwind all of the QE from March 2020 – April 2022?
$2.9 trillion. That's quite some fat to chew.
And bigger question is likely to be when is it 'party on' again? My reckon is sooner rather than later. Out of necessity.
7-House-Luxon to become 4-House-Luxon
Tried to post link from stuff.co.Nz but isn’t working (not sure why..)
But he’s now listing his 3rd property in quick succession.
So John Key bails from ANZ and Luxon is offloading properties but it’s definitely the bottom and recovery inbound.
Luxon is like many junior CEOs ... They follow the herd - while using words to pretend they've discovered the latest and greatest trend that'll make you all rich. hollow man
he must be reading the latest polls and know he will be rolled before the next election and if they carry on the track they are on, could very well become a 1 term government (would surprise me greatly if this happened) and wants to clear the decks before any CGT, also would not be surprised to see him send that money offshore to protect it
"New Zealand has already nearly completed its first installment of $1.3 billion in payments to developing countries. This is about 5 percent of the total that will be required to 2030.
Does 1 person in 1000 know about this?
The opposition won’t raise it because they started it"
(Acknowledgement: KB, Benedict Yu)
And once again a journo who is totally clueless on how the legislation will work.
He says panels will not have the environment as part of their decision making. Wrong. While economic benefits are elevated above the environment, effects on the natural environment must be considered. The bar is lower than under the RMA, yet it is still an important consideration.
Ahh, you are talking about the panel that will make the final decision.
He is talking about the panel that decided which of the projects would progress to the decision stage. None of the 147 or so projects to get to this stage had any environmental or social considerations taken into consideration, because they were not allowed too.
AFAIK, the epa will advise the final decision panel, but cannot rule against any project.
Buffet betting big on Japanese capital markets
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/berkshire-hathaway-raises-19-bln-bon…
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