Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
None to report today, so far at least. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
TSB actually raised some TD rates today up to levels near the top of the market. More here. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
DOWN, BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY
We are now getting important Q2 sectorial data ahead of the GDP release due Thursday, September 17. Today it was from the construction sector, "Building Work Put In Place". That revealed a small -0.2% dip from Q1, and down -2.6% year-on-year on a value basis, down -6.1% on a volume (price-adjusted) basis. Residential was down -8.5%, all other construction down only -1.8%. That there are declines will be no surprise, but it probably was a surprise that it was this slight. The hit to GDP will be less than first expected.
RSK CAPITAL PRICED
Westpac has set its initial interest rate for its capital raising via its recent $350 mln Perpetual Preference Share issue. That issue will be based on the 5 year swap rate plus 3.5%, so for the first five years these 'shares' will yield 7.1%. (The margin will apply to a different base after that 5 years.) While these shares rank ahead of ordinary shares, they rank behind everyone else, including depositors. And they will have a BBB+ credit rating, well below the main Westpac rating of AA-.
NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. We welcome comments on that update story. We have added some key index fund performance tracking.
BACK TO NORMAL
The Passport Office said its backlog has now cleared and that issue times are now 'normal'. Allow two weeks (ten working days).
FMA BOARD RENEWAL
Tracey Berry, Nicholas Hegan and Mariette van Ryn have been appointed for a five-year term ending in August 2029, while Chris Swasbrook, who has served as a board member since April 2019, has been reappointed. This is in addition to Craig Stobo who was appointed as chair earlier this year in May.
SWAP RATES HOLD AT SHORT END
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed at the short end again today. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -2 bps at 5.13%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 3.94%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.14% after determined Beijing action to keep it from falling. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 4.24% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.18% and unchanged from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps at 3.73%. Their 2yr is also now at 3.72%, so that inversion has returned as -2 bps.
EQUITIES STAY IN TIGHT RANGE
The NZX50 is down -0.3% in its late Friday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Wednesday trade down -0.2% at its open. Hong Kong is down -0.1% and Shanghai has opened up +0.2%. Singapore is up +0.4% at its open. Wall Street slipped earlier today, with the S&P500 off by -0.3% in Thursday trade.
OIL HOLDS LOWER
The oil price is marginally softer from this time yesterday at just und US$69.50/bbl in the US, and still just over US$72.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE DIPS
Today the carbon price is softer today at $60/NZU and down $1.50. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRM
In early Asian trade, gold is up a +US$19 from yesterday at US$2517/oz.
NZD FIRM
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from this time yesterday, now at 62.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are also up +20 bps at 92.3 AUc. And against the euro we are unchanged at 55.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 70.2 and up +20 bps.
BITCOIN EASES
The bitcoin price is down -1.7% from this time yesterday, now at US$56,716. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.8%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
Daily swap rates
Select chart tabs
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
68 Comments
The ANZ uncarded online rate for 1yr home loan has reduced from 6.29 to 6.19%, no changes to the other rate and the 6m is still a "try me fool" at 6.85%.
I wonder what's driving TSB in the opposite direction? Their lack of PIE Terms is a killer for high(er) tax brackets, so basically everyone here.
Just as an interesting observation from the tradie front.
If you polled me two weeks ago for confidence, it would've been a resounding "meh". Not much new activity on the horizon for months, probably the quietest for future pricing in 10+ years.
However for the last two weeks, I've been getting multiple inquiries daily for tenders and quotes.
Whether that's seasonal, or the change in OCR, hard to say.
Virtually none of what I do is residential. But the residential guys I know are saying their inquiry levels have also shot up - but mostly renovation.
I'm getting fairly quick confirmation responses, so the inquiries are also fairly serious.
I know new residential is still pretty quiet.
Email from Wellington City Council today about the new RVs to be set this month. I'm picking a 24.7% drop for mine. You read it here first.
They were at pains to softly explain that a drop in RV doesn't necessarily mean a drop in rates, and that the new RVs won't have any effect on this year's rates. Expect flaming torches and pitchforks come November.
Wellington is poked.
All Western cities are 'poked'.
And rates are a total need, divided by... Rates have been going up faster than historical growth, not because you-all decided your aging edifices were worth multiple time more than they had been - but because of ultimate scarcity. Houses were a ponzi - but an artificially constructed one.
The level of distortion is a consequence of central banks and government active meddling in markets.
The last time JPY traded here, stocks were in free fall.
Even more incredible is the fact that the amount of liquidity lent by the BOE via its short term repo facility set up for emergency needs of banks keeps breaking record highs and there is barely a whisper about it in the news or in social media.
If "understanding" it is knowing the market conditions for when it rises, I wouldn't say you do either. Otherwise you'd be able to make a killing on it.
Trying to identify the trends for why something goes up or down is more interesting (and useful) than being a propellerhead for the asset in question. It'd appear, right at the moment, that the hard cash looking for a safe haven is going into gold, rather than BTC. That may offer some understanding of the sort of money that goes into one over the other. I.e., BTCs value movements are contingent on the amount of spare cash certain demographics have to throw around.
If "understanding" it is knowing the market conditions for when it rises, I wouldn't say you do either. Otherwise you'd be able to make a killing on it.
Not a speculator or trader P so it doesn't matter. But if you're going to trade BTC, particularly with leverage, understand what you can afford to lose. Accumulating ratty at low fiat prices is the best opportunity you have.
You need to understand the concept of UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) and specifically median age of the UTXO. For ex,
Median Age weighted by value:
2017 - approx 25 weeks
2020- approx 100 weeks
2024 - approx 150 weeks
Mean Coin Age (MCA) is a related metric that calculates the average age of UTXOs, weighted by their value. It is defined as the mean value of the products of UTXO alive days and their respective values. This metric is useful for estimating the proportion of long-term holders in the market. A decline in MCA typically indicates that a significant amount of UTXOs, which have not moved for a long time, are being spent, suggesting a change in holder sentiment.
The age distribution of UTXOs can indicate market trends. For instance, a large number of UTXOs that are several years old being spent may signal that long-term investors are liquidating their holdings, which could affect market dynamics. Conversely, a stable or increasing median age of UTXOs could suggest that investors are holding onto their assets, potentially anticipating future price increases.
If you can understand it well enough to predict movements, then you'd be silly not to capitalize on that knowledge, vs DCAing it.
Also you fairly commonly like to post BTC news as some sort of predictor of value movement.
If what you say is true, i.e. most Bitcoin isn't on the market, then what im saying bares more weight - a larger amount of small investors can have a disproportionate effect on the value. It would seem the current climate has many of those people's wallets shut.
From the receivers report released yesterday:
"The financial information received to date indicates that Du Val Group NZ Limited (in Receivership) purchased "intellectual property" from the JK & CM Clarke Trust for $15m in a historical transaction, creating a corresponding loan balance owing to the Trust. This loan balance had subsequently been reduced to c.$5.5 as at March 2023. As Du Val Group NZ Limited (in Receivership) does not have financial records in Xero we have been unable to determine the associated funds flow supporting these positions. Further investigation is strongly recommended in this regard, including the basis for the initial purchase transaction and value attached."
No wonder they have confiscated their passports.
Yep
the extra DCs on new homes might be in the order of $10-15k. Apparently stormwater DCs will be ramped up quite a lot. It’s a bit of a myth that the stormwater infrastructure in Auckland’s brownfield locations is all fine and dandy relative to greenfield settings
Trump surging in new Nate Silver prediction model. Much higher than the PolyMarket betting market.
Trump's chances of victory at 58.2 percent as of Wednesday. Harris, in comparison, has a 41.6 percent chance of winning in November, according to the latest Silver Bulletin.
https://www.newsweek.com/nate-silver-election-model-shows-donald-trump-…
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1725…
Some say our economy is doing Ok:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/major-auckland-car-dealership-in-li…
Chinese banks have built a $100bn short against the US dollar to prop up the yuan — and hedge funds are eager to get in on the trade. At the center of it all are transactions known as FX swaps. These have quietly become a key tool for state-run Chinese banks seeking to prop up the yuan during periods of outsized selling pressure.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-09-05/china-s-banks-build-…
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.