Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here. Update: Bluestone Mortgages said it was quitting New Zealand, unable to find a workable niche that could meet its scale requirements.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes today here either. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
HIGHER MILK PRICES
Fonterra is bullish on the farmgate milk price and annual earnings and said it has raised its 2024/25 forecast farmgate milk price midpoint by +50 cents to $8.50 per kgMS. It also said its earnings will be at the upper end of their guidance range.
BELTS STILL BEING TIGHTENED
Retail sales volumes continued to decline in June quarter. They were sales down -1.2%, down -3.6% from a year ago, extending two-year downward trend in consumer spending. But this was a smaller dip than some analysts were expecting (although to be fair, more than some others). Retailers say they are noticing -$30 bln in lower activity, serious for them.
GRANULAR DETAIL BY BANK
The RBNZ Dashboard data was updated today for the June 2024 quarter. That powers our Key Bank Metrics tool. And that allows you to compare a wide range of key operational and financial measures between banks. For example, it shows NIM detail (net interest margin) by bank, for every quarter since March 2018. Metrics covered are Capital Adequacy, Asset Quality, Profitability, Balance Sheet, Liquidity, Credit concentration, Leverage and Tax paid, among others. For example it shows both Kiwibank (+$384 mln) and BNZ (+$223 mln) making market share gains in home loan lending in the June quarter from the March quarter, basically at the expense of Westpac (-$378 mln) and ASB (-$106 mln). ANZ also slipped slightly (-$76 mln) on this basis too.
NOT INTERESTED IN FARM LENDING, BUT INTERESTED IN CORPORATES
The Kiwibank CEO doesn't think the bank entering rural banking market would add much. But he also says his bank is getting increasing number of requests to join corporate lending syndicates.
LANDCORP REPORTS RESULT
Pāmu/Landcorp has reported a Net Operating Profit of $20 mln for the year ended June 2024, down from $33 mln in the previous year. "Despite a stronger on-farm performance this year, like other Kiwi farmers, we have had to contend with softening sheep and cattle prices, high interest costs, and the decrease in valuation of farms and buildings, all of which impact profitability," they said.
NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our new quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. We welcome comments on that update story.
TALLEYS SENSE AN OPPORTUNITY
Synlait Milk's retreat from its North Island investment adventure looks like it will allow Talley's-owned Open Country Dairy to scoop up those assets.
MORE ON KIWISAVER
Investment News released its free KiwiSaver review for the year to March 2023. Although it is slightly dated, there are some interesting insights in here. The RBNZ will report the whole sector FUM for June on Monday.
CLIMBING MARKET SHARE
Globally, China's BYD overtook both Honda and Nissan in Q2-2024 to become the world's seventh-largest carmaker by number of cars sold, boosted by demand for its affordable range of EVs.
MODEST JAPANESE INFLATION EMBEDS
Japanese CPI inflation was at 2.8% in July from a year ago, holding steady for the third straight month while remaining at its highest level since February. Electricity prices jumped, and other fuel costs rose too after the full end of energy subsidies in May. However costs fell for education and communication. Meanwhile, their core inflation rate hit a five-month high of 2.7% in July. Monthly, the CPI rose by +0.2% in July, the least in three months, after a +0.3% gain in June.
AU$¼ BLN EXTRA PENALTY LOAD
In Australia, their prudential regulator APRA has added another AU$250 mln to its existing AU$500 mln operational risk add-on to ANZ's capital requirements as a penalty for deficiencies in its culture and risk governance at the bank.
SWAP RATES FIRMISH
Wholesale swap rates are probably firmer today. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bps at 5.24%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 3.95%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 2.17%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 4.27% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.17% and up +1 bp from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp from yesterday at 3.81%. Their 2yr is now at 3.94%, so that curve has now tightened up, inverted by just -13 bps.
EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER, EXCEPT THE NZX
The NZX50 is up +0.7% in late Friday trade and the best of the markets we follow. The ASX200 is down a minor -0.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -0.2%. Hong Kong is down -0.8% at its open. Shanghai is down -0.3%. Singapore is unchanged at its open. The S&P500 ended its Thursday session on Wall Street down -0.9%.
OIL TURNS UP
The oil price is up +US$1.50 from yesterday at just under US$73/bbl in the US, and at just on US$76.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE LITTLE-CHANGED
Today the carbon price dipped by a marginal -25c today, now at $59.75/NZU today. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD SLIPS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$12 from yesterday, now at US$2489/oz.
NZD MARGINALLY FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time yesterday, still at 61.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 55.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up another +10 bps from yesterday at 69.6.
BITCOIN FIRMER
The bitcoin price is up +1.3% from this time yesterday, now at US$60,735. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.3%.
USE OF AI
No articles on this news service are produced with AI. Occasionally we use AI to derive images. They are always identified in the attribution.
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47 Comments
We all got on the plane, willingly, though. We thought it would take us to Fantasy Island, where we would all be rich without having to work.
We shouldn't be here, but we are. Successive Governments have put us here. Actually, that's not right. WE'VE elected Governments to put us exactly here. The planes going down. It's just a matter of whether we have the courage to jettison some of the toxic cargo to make an emergency landing, and not a crash first.
"How do you pull out of a nosedive when your pilots don't know how to fly the plane" - just reduce interest rates, as designed.
If they reduce interest rates, and if the economy picks up, will you admit that everything works as intended? Or would that be another fluke just like when hiking interest rates killed inflation?
Costs are skyrocketing, everything we need to maintain our standard of living is going up in price with no signs of slowing down. Add to that the fact that many are feeling nervous about their jobs and I think we are well and truly outside the “Just make debt cheaper and everything will be fine” narrative.
"with no signs of slowing down" - inflation will be back within target at the end of this quarter.
"many are feeling nervous about their jobs" - unemployment rate is still lower than the "rock star" economy days. I get that it is terrible for those affected, but you can't run an economy at 110% forever, otherwise everyone loses their job.
I don't doubt that higher rates in a high private debt economy slows consumer demand. Nor do I doubt that lower rates will (a) encourage more people / businesses to borrow money to inflate the property ponzi and (b) increase household disposable income. This combo will be stimulatory (slowly).
What I absolutely contest is that wiggling interest rates up and down in NZ has any significant impact on the prices of things in the real economy. Our domestic prices have just adjusted to the new global price level. Higher rates and lower demand might have persuaded or forced some businesses to sell stuff a bit cheaper, but they also add billions to business costs and put upwards pressure on prices. As rates fall over the next 12 months, business costs will fall by billions of dollars, and, that might just lead to some lower prices? Yay, we've tamed inflation!
Now, let's assume that Govt deficit spending stays as planned - around 2% of GDP (ish) for the next few years. Let's assume that RBNZ foreshadow / track the Fed down to, say, 3% over the next 12 months. When do you think unemployment will come down from the 6%+ that it is heading to now? When will the economy turn around? My estimate is that the low rates stimulus will not be enough to arrest the downward momentum. It wasn't after the GFC either. Lower rates appear to have provided stimulus a few times in recent history (eg 2012 and 2021). However, on these occasions, lower rates were accompanied by massive Govt deficit spending. Remember Key / English spent big between 2009 and 2012 and we had a massive windfall of global reinsurance money.
It may be worth looking into the timeframe of the stimulatory effect of the reinsurance payout post Canterbury quakes....the oft stated 20 billion was spread over almost a decade....i know it took 6 years before my parents saw any insurance payout that enabled them to impact the economy.
Pāmu/Landcorp has reported a Net Operating Profit of $20 mln for the year ended June 2024, down from $33 mln in the previous year.
Has Pamu / Spring Sheep Milk New Zealand Limited ever made a profit? Seem to have leaders with fancy pants executive education degrees and resumes, but hard to know if they actually sell anything. Spring Sheep was recognized at the 2023 Deloitte Fast 50 awards as the fastest-growing exporter and agribusiness in the Central North Island.
Fox News probes Democratic spokesperson about unrealized capital gains who answers differently to Kamala - basically the $100 million net worth benchmark is incorrect and it could apply to someone worth much less.
The interviewee is possibly ignorant. Therefore she shouldn't be representing the Democrats and should not be communicating to the public.
This takes me back to the days of Team Jacinda Ardern where you felt like everything was made up on the fly and you weren't getting the honest truth.
Forget the money. The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s decision to force ANZ to hold an extra $250 million in regulatory capital after its latest bond trading scandal looks like a move expressly designed to embarrass chief executive Shayne Elliott and chairman Paul O’Sullivan into finally addressing the bank’s festering risk failings.
So the total is now up to $750mil, pretty soon it will be real money....
Basically the regulator makes them carry this additional capital, like an ongoing fine, until they are happy. So ANZ have to fund this capital, ongoing up to what 30-40 mil PA.
Maybe they could take it out of the Markets bonus pool
Old mine has burst near Paeroa, turning river bright brown. Shane Jones should come have a look, I'm sure he would get a great reception.https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/350389822/strange-ohinemuri-river-turns…
Interesting to see what happens next with the Seascape. Chinese funds drying up…
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/china-construction-suspends-work-on…
Some property goes up, and some goes down. I agree that the bottom is still a few months away, but I am trying to understand your overall negative view on property considering that you made a couple of million dollars at the peak of the market. Can you please explain?
A correction here $26 million loss on a 2 billion of assets, how long do tax payers have to accept this ?
https://www.ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/rural-news/rural-agribusiness/pamu-hit…
Power words from the mighty Chris Joye about the failures of the Aussie govt and the RBA.
It is astonishing to think that in the middle of the worst inflation crisis in decades driven by what the RBA characterises as “excess demand”, Australian politicians are running bigger budget deficits than they did during the global financial crisis.
An essential feature of the capitalist system that has powered prosperity for the last century has been the innovation and productivity enabled by using freely functioning market signals to guide the allocation of scarce resources. This necessitates some economic volatility (aka a business cycle).
When politicians and central banks directly intervene in the economy via fiscal and monetary policy, they reject these market signals and seek to impose their own unilateral view of the world.
By trying to save weaker businesses from failure by artificially bolstering demand through public spending and interest rates that are lower than they should otherwise be, they prevent money and people from shifting to more productive firms, which undermines prosperity. Inflation might be the only thing that can really stop this corruption of capitalism by what one might define as a nascent form of neo-socialism.
It is inflation that forces us to choose between the heavy hand of the imperfect political autocrat and the collective wisdom of the crowd as a durable economic engine.
It is inflation that presents the trade-offs between markets and masters; between fake growth and bona fide ingenuity; and between the flawed despot trying to divine our destiny and the chaotic genius of humans competing vigorously with one another to arrive at superior outcomes...
Some could make the argument that actual Marxist Communism determines the revolution happens at the end of a capitalist system.
Whereas most communism as experienced has usually replaced some form of imperialism, missing the step where a nation industrializes and grows prosperous.
I still think it'd more likely just be the same sort of brutal, corrupt authoritarianism.
Lets be clear, here in NZ we are letting it burn as we hated the Labour trimming the bush, we voted for this as the least of all the evils facing us.
I think at least half understood the consequences but believed that the pain would be worth it, for the regeneration after the fire.
That fire is burning now.
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