Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Westpac has made another cut to its fixed rates. Details here. TSB cut its floating mortgage rate today by the same -25 bps to 8.39%. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Westpac has also cut some TD rates. Heartland Bank cut most of its TD rates today, and cut its Direct Call savings account by -10 bps to 4.50%. It cut its 30 day Notice Saver by -25 bps, but its 90 Day Notice Saver by only -15 bps. AMP matched the Heartland TD cuts. Squirrel has cut its On Call rate by -25 bps to 5.00%. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
STILL 'DREADFUL'
The July PMI was still contracting sharply, even if not as sharp as in June. It was worst in the Dunedin region and not much better in the Auckland region. The top of the SI and bottom of the NI fared better (= contracting less sharply). For things to improve, the domestic urban demand needs to improve.
PPI RISES
Producer input prices rose +3.4% in the June quarter from the same quarter in 2023. That is up from +2.5% in the March quarter and up from +3.0% in the June 2023 quarter. Inflationary pressures on producers are not receding. Capital goods prices are up just +2.8%.
FARM EXPENSES
Farm expenses are now rising far slower, up just +1.6% in the past year (excluding livestock). The 2022 rising pressures are behind farmers although these costs are not falling back to those earlier levels. They are just not rising further. If it weren't for electricity (+7.6%), fuel (+11.1%), and insurance (+13.0%), these overall rises would have been lower.
SPILLED MILK SETTLEMENT
Synlait Milk and The a2 Milk Company have conditionally agreed to resolve all disputes subject to arbitration, including those regarding exclusivity, pricing, and other issues.
KEY PRAISE
The official Chinese state media are playing up John Key's praise for China's progress on its 'green transition'. (He is not alone. Helen Clark, Don Brash, and Paul Keating all still also see China through perspectives they acquired decades ago.)
SWAP RATES IN MINOR SHIFT
Wholesale swap rates are probably bounced up a bit today but not significantly. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -2 bps at 5.25%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps from this time yesterday at 3.96%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 2.19%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 4.21% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.20% and up +1 bp from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is up +5 bps from this time yesterday at 3.90%. Their 2yr is now at 4.07%, so that curve is now inverted more at -17 bps.
EQUITIES FIRMER AGAIN ON GOOD DATA
The NZX50 is up +0.3% in late trade today and heading for a weekly gain of +4.1% which is unusually strong for the local market. The ASX200 is up +1.2% in their Friday afternoon trade. If that holds it will be up +2.4% for the week. Tokyo is up another strong +2.9%. Hong Kong is up +1.5% at its open. But Shanghai is little-changed in its opening trade. Singapore has risen +1.2% at its open. Wall Street ended its Thursday session with the S&P500 up a strong +1.6%.
OIL FIRMISH
The oil price is up +50 USc from this time yesterday, now just under US$77/bbl in the US, and up at just under US$80.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE EASES AGAIN IN VERY LIGHT TRADE
Today the carbon price is down again at $51/NZU today in very light trade. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD LITTLE-CHANGED
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$4 from this time yesterday, now at US$2455/oz.
NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from this time yesterday, now at 60 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 54.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is little-changed from yesterday at 67.6.
BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price has slipped just -0.4% from this time yesterday, now at US$58,164. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.2%.
USE OF AI
No articles on this news service are produced with AI. Occasionally we use AI to derive images. They are always identified in the attribution.
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92 Comments
The NZX50 is up +0.3% in late trade today and heading for a weekly gain of +4.1% which is unusually strong for the local market.
Strong indeed. Thought the Robert MacCulloch's blog post slamming Orr was illuminating on NZ equities.
Since Covid broke at the start of 2020 until now, its [US] share-market is up 37%. NZ's stocks have barely changed - up a tiny 4% over that 4-5 year period and down big-time in real terms (accounting for inflation). NZ Business has been hammered.
Even basket case Japan's Nikkei 225 is up 83% over same time period.
https://www.downtoearth.kiwi/post/the-reserve-bank-throws-truth-out-the…
Bounce seems to be mostly in dividend payers, and retirement/property companies. Mostly related to the RBNZ decision and the buyout offer of Arvida I think.
Early days admittedly, but this is pretty much what I've been expecting and positioning for. I hope everyone grabbed some Oceania in the 50s - up to 83c today.
Early days admittedly, but this is pretty much what I've been expecting and positioning for. I hope everyone grabbed some Oceania in the 50s - up to 83c today.
Nice speccy but be very careful with these companies. Dreadfully managed and run and a bet on the vitality of the Ponzi. On the human side, they are potentially villages of misery. Not my cup of tea.
Du Val report incoming? Tick tock. Will make for an interesting weekend read.
Really? 2 weeks is a ridiculously short time to untangle what is likely to a ridiculously tangled, knotted web.
Du Val family should take some time out in Fiji or the spiritual Mecca (Gold Coast) until some progress is made.
Appears the BOJ and Fed won’t allow the USD-JPY interest rate differential to narrow, so the market will continue to leverage up.
Bullish for rat poison if the fiat system collapses or if more fiat liquidity chases assets with finite supplies. Moral hazard is indeed a ticking time bomb in the fiat system. If central banks won’t let interest rates reflect true market conditions, chances are that leveraged bets will destabilize the global economy.
Nomura Holdings Inc., Japan’s biggest brokerage, has seen a variety of investors start borrowing the yen again to invest the proceeds elsewhere in higher-yielding assets. It suggests corporate clients and hedge funds, who have been enthusiastic carry traders, are getting back into those deals.
“There has been a notable move back” into carry trades after US retail sales data beat estimates, said Antony Foster, head of Group-of-10 spot trading at Nomura in London. Multiple accounts have sold yen to buy the Australian dollar and sterling, he said. US bond yields rose Thursday after the sales data spurred traders to dial back their expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carry-trade-blew-markets-attracting-0035…
Moral hazard is indeed a ticking time bomb in the fiat system
The moral hazard is far greater in assets/investments who's value is purely derived from the belief the value keeps going up.
I'd say the big dip in certain overvalued stocks coinciding with a big dip in BTC value should be a precursor for you, but we probably both know you're riding this pony till it's well and truly flogged.
The ponzi is everywhere except where you're counting on.
I'd say the big dip in certain overvalued stocks coinciding with a big dip in BTC value should be a precursor for you, but we probably both know you're riding this pony till it's well and truly flogged.
A "big dip" in BTC is close to 90% and is accepted as part of its cyclical behavior - basic risk management.
Estimates of the carry trade range from USD2-20 trillion. But nobody really knows the real impact of what happens if it all goes tits up. There is no risk management.
A "big dip" in BTC is close to 90% and is accepted as part of its cyclical behavior - basic risk management.
Ah so more of a little blip, than a big dip.
It's fine folks all fine, totally normal. Nothing to see here. This is what proper money does, jump all over the place like a Jack Russell Terrier on meth.
80% of the US money supply ever created emerged in the past 5 years and M2 has now reached approx $21.025 trillion - equivalent to the upper estimates of the carry trade. Money supply is now increasing by USD1 trillion every 100 days.
Makes a meth-addled Jack Terrier look tame.
Well, you know all the rules, terms,trends, and secret handshakes of the alternative. Thousands of hours sunk into research.
Yet you haven't made jack all out of it.
Probably because it's not the form the money is in, it's how you deploy it.
Bought some BTC yesterday. Owned it for about 60 seconds. It's a service.
Yet you haven't made jack all out of it.
Probably because it's not the form the money is in, it's how you deploy it.
At an annualized 140% since 2011, BTC is the best performing asset class in 11 of those 14 years. Of the 3 years it was not, the USD price fell -56%, -73%, -64%.
So anyone with a minimum 4-5 year time frame should have done well out of BTC.
Interesting facts. You still haven't made jack out of it.
There's no algorithm you can learn, you have no control over it. Outside of trying to find new recruits on here.
Why would anyone be interested when one of it's fiercest advocates can't even make a decent return.
Interesting facts. You still haven't made jack out of it.
So what would have been a better "make money out of it"? If you say Ethereum and Solana, you would be correct, up 147% and 227% pa, but only from 2018 and 2021 respectively.
QQQ is up 18% pa since 2011. US Cash (BIL) 0% over the same period. US REITs (VNQ) 7% since 2011.
Well yes. But you can't blame BTC for companies like Synlait being on the ropes and Du Val finding itself in its current predicament. F'more, if equities and commerce are reliant on monetary settings, you might want to redirect your energy towards the central / commercial banking operations.
I really just am interested in coming up with decent business models, deploying them, and if it works do more of it, and if it doesn't, do something else.
Pretty rare I entrust my money to a third party to add value to it for more. For one, if they were any good, why do they need my money.
I really just am interested in coming up with decent business models, deploying them, and if it works do more of it, and if it doesn't, do something else.
I hear you. This sounds like the philosophy that ZURU follows. Making out like bandits on what works and ditching what doesn't. Constantly looking for innovation.
If you chart it, definitely looks like something you would expect from hyperinflation. But then, people will argue the difference between base and broad money supply.
Micheal Bury has sold 100% of his gold position. He has something like 45% of his portfolio on Chinese equities, including all the ecommerce players.
I’m expecting capital gains from here, and I’d call myself pretty pessimistic. The average property investor is creaming their pants I imagine. You should get in while you can HM, you can’t lose with property.
In all honesty I have no idea what will happen. But I reckon there is a good chance this is the bottom. Are you sure I’m wrong?
There are a lot of oldies currently getting 6% in TDs. Once that goes down to 4%, leveraged property might start looking good again, particularly if their mates think the same.
You really think prices will increase significantly off the back of one 25 BPs cut and a few people getting hyped up about that? No show. They might stop dropping soon, though. As you know, I have picked prices to start rising gently- moderately second half of ‘25, once rates are at least 2% lower than now.
Sure, it may not happen right now. But it probably takes 6 months or more to buy once you start looking, so I do think FHBs should start looking now. With the caveat that I have a bad track record of predicting house prices!!!!
As for investors, if I was investing in anything I’d try to get in just before the bottom (it’s hard to get in at the exact bottom). I reckon we’re close enough.
Bank's don't extend leverage to oldies much anymore... not ones that are financially smart enough to keep there money in TDs.
Maybe ones that transfer funds from Jarden's for the deposit...
The house market has to stop falling, before it bases before it can "take off" and there is no signs with current overhang that the basing is occurring. HPI Monday... place your bets.
The market and the economy have not even had a soft landing and you are talking it heading higher.... even RBNZ thinks the high frequency data is shit enough to U turn on.
Most importantly with interest rates so high, yields so low movements in the interest funding costs only slightly change how negative the cashflow is,,, its a shit sandwich , its just how much bread you are getting.
the meal is only going to look better once prices fall enough to make things close to cash flow neutral.
Second officer to Captain on 747, sir the fuel tank is showing empty and No 2&3 engines flaming our - don't worry we are still climbing - yes a lovely updraft but engine 1 has flamed out and No 4 is sputtering, just a blip mate everything is just fine - as the 747 enters a dive with Mt Everest ahead the Captain screams why didnt you tell me ORR were you being an idiot?
"Surely you agree that interest rates are a significant factor in house prices?"
When the supply is artificially constrained by daft local government zoning rules, one could argue that.
But when supply becomes more plentiful, and the range of options increases, and - most importantly - future supply look assured & dynamic, I'd recommend you seriously rethink that statement. (Studying what happened in the 70s may help.)
JJ: "House prices predictably went down when interest rates went up, wouldn’t we expect the opposite?"
Take care, Jimbo. Let me give you some food for thought.
https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/real-estate/median-price-reinz
Using the graph above, select Auckland. (The first date on the graph used to go back way further than 2016 so what I'm about to say would be clearer.)
In 2016, Auckland's new Unitary Plan dramatically increased the potential for supply. And the market responded by building many more dwellings of all sorts of shapes and sizes, and at various price points where the cost of land had a much smaller effect (i.e. smaller sections).
Notice the 'flat line' between 2016 and 2020? Interest rates actually fell in this period. (See https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/interest-rates/ocr). So where goes your theory?
In 2020, covid struck and the RBNZ lost its mind. They dropped the OCR to 0.25%. Never had it been that low. And house prices went nuts. (Much like the RBNZ.) ... Is it going back to 0.25%? Baring a black swan, I'd suggest no-chance. And with one, I think the RBNZ may be far more circumspect in future.
Auckland's 2016 Unitary Plan has now been followed all over NZ to varying degrees and central government is looking to ensure supply looks 30 years into the future.
My read is that even when a) the market bottoms, and b) retail interest rates get back to pre-covid levels, house prices will flat-line again, effectively falling in real (inflation adjusted terms.) There is so much potential new housing supply available it could flatline for 20-30 years.
If you can explain this market behavior away to any other factors, I'd love to hear them. (No one has yet.)
Take care, Jimbo.
Median household income (2023) was $115,000.
https://webrear.mbie.govt.nz/theme/household-income-median/map/timeseri…
If you wanted to buy a house, and could afford to buy a house, then I’d say any time over the next year would be a decent idea…I would be surprised if we see a continued fall on the back of 0.75% cuts this year, be more like a plateau and then we they cut to stimulatory levels later next year you would have to think that steady growth in prices is a likely result.
I’m doubtful we will see a stupid boom again so probably no rush…but again, if you want then buy it.
If you thought Orr was arrogant, check out the RBA. Wolverine rips into them.
The newly appointed English deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Andrew Hauser, apparently has a proclivity for lecturing Aussies on the history of our penal colonies, arrogance, overconfidence, and the importance of never daring to criticise our supercilious central bank.
From Hauser’s haughty vantage, the rich public debate swirling around the price of money in this country is framed as an essentially juvenile exercise.
It is perennially plagued with undue certainty and bias, which should be junked in favour of heeding Hauser and the RBA’s much more “mature”, informed and nuanced decision-making framework that always acknowledges and accounts for risk and uncertainty.
In a speech on Monday to the Queensland branch of the Economic Society of Australia, Hauser betrays that it is the RBA which is the false prophet, and that he knows next to nothing about the central bank’s history and shortcomings.
One could not put it much better than the likes of Nationals senator Matt Canavan, who retorted: “Hopefully, this will be an education for Andrew because the days of Englishmen telling us what to do and say are long gone.”
Or former Labor senator Stephen Conroy, who counter-punched: “This new bloke Andrew Hauser, he’s been to Oxford, but you know, the [recent independent] report into the RBA found they were insular, arrogant and overconfident … This bloke needs to buy a mirror because he is a complete wanker.”
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/arrogant-rba-boss-should-stop-trying…
The official Chinese state media are playing up John Key's praise for China's progress on its 'green transition'. (He is not alone. Helen Clark, Don Brash, and Paul Keating all still also see China through perspectives they acquired decades ago.)
Maybe they recognise that association with the US could result in the appalling behaviour the US employs against Germany and Australia - both vassal states.
Well I just arrived back at Auckland airport.
had to walk past the hundreds of millions spent on new buildings and stand in the rain because they have only provided a couple of one meter by three meter bus shelters for Uber riders
I feel like leaving already. Why do we put with this?
the whole economic plan seems to be about ripping us as much as possible.
have to say the crew on air New Zealand was incredibly diverse and woke but left a very average impression
LOL. Quoting from that Robert MacCulloch blog:
The latest updated GDP growth numbers put NZ at around 183th position out of 190 nations, one of the slowest growing on the planet. Below us in 2024 are Yemen at -1% (in civil war), Estonia at -0.5%, Haiti at -3% (in civil war), Puerto Rico at -0.2%, Sudan at -4.2% (in civil war), Kuwait at -1.4% & Argentina at -6%. How did it happen?
https://www.downtoearth.kiwi/post/the-reserve-bank-throws-truth-out-the…
Ah. You left out the next bit. ;-)
How did it happen? The Reserve Bank stuffed up monetary policy on an industrial scale. It went berserk printing money from 2020 to 2022; then went berserk reversing itself and hiking rates in a scorched earth blitzkrieg until yesterday, over-reacting every time. Yet if you read the Monetary Policy Statement it just released, its sleazy, mealy-mouthed, deceptive commentary, using weasel words at every opportunity, makes it look like it has been doing a fine job, and that nearly every other country is experiencing the same issues. That's a flat-out lie.
IMNSHO, Rob's not wrong.
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