Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
The Cooperative Bank said it will be cutting rates tomorrow. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
And the Coop Bank is cutting TD rates tomorrow too. Nelson Building Society dod so as well. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
UNEMPLOYMENT RISES
The June unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%, although that was slightly less than most analysts had expected. But it is a three year high. Population growth outpaced employment in the quarter, pushing the jobless rate up with youth unemployment rising the most.
MORE PAY FOR LESS HOURS
Meanwhile, wage growth as measured by the labour cost index, rose +1.2% during the quarter which brought the annual change to +4.3%. This was driven by record growth in front-line public sector wages. Analysts noted that despite that, total hours worked retreated -0.9%. The QES data for average weekly earnings (for FTEs) rose to $1612. For the public service it was $1934. That is an increase in the private sector of +4.4% and the public sector of +7.5% from the same quarter a year ago. All this probably means productivity was under fierce pressure in Q2-2024.
DAIRY PRICES HOLD
The overnight full GDT dairy auction saw prices rise +0.5% overall with SMP down -2.7% but WMP up +2.4%. A lot more WMP was sold however.
NEW KIWIBANK CHIEF DIGITAL & TECHNOLOGY OFFICER JOINS FROM BNZ
Kiwibank has hired Paul Littlefair from BNZ to be its new Chief Digital and Technology Officer. Littlefair, who was BNZ's Executive, Technology until August 2, succeeds Hamish Rumbold at Kiwibank who left on June 28. Littlefair's Kiwibank appointment requires the standard Reserve Bank approval.
TRADING HALT
Manawa Energy (MNW, #23) is in a trading halt because it needs to reduce its earnings guidance. They say this is because of a combination of "adverse market conditions in the wholesale energy markets" and a large potential bad debt possibility.
FRAUD CASE PUSHED ON, OPENS UP
The ongoing action by the Serious Fraud Office has seen another defendant named. In this particular case, a total of 37 charges have been filed in relation to an alleged mortgage fraud scheme, against Christopher Peters, Robert Peters and two other people who have name suppression, for obtaining credit or property by deception and attempting to obtain credit by deception. One of the unnamed defendants has pleaded guilty to four charges having admitted to providing misleading information to their bank as part of a 2018 loan application and is due to be sentenced this month. Charges for an alleged investment fraud have also been filed against Christopher Peters, Robert Peters, Gerard Peters and Serene Peters for obtaining $1.8 mln by deception. Christopher and Robert Peters have also been charged with obtaining those funds by forgery as an alternative charge.
LIVING COST PRESSURE IN AUSTRALIA
Australia released its five Living Cost Indexes for Q2-2024 today, supplemental to their CPI. For 'pensioners & beneficiaries' they were up +4.1% for the year. For 'aged pensioners' up +3.7%. For 'self-funded retirees, up +3.6%. For other benefit recipients, up +4.6%. For 'employees', living costs were up +6.4%. The overall CPI was up 3.8% in the same period.
NOT WHAT WAS EXPECTED
China released its July trade data today. Their exports were up less than expected, a three month growth low. Their imports rose more than expected and its strongest rise since April. That meant their trade surplus shrank in July.
SWAP RATES JUMP
Wholesale swap rates are possibly sharply higher today with both the one and two year rates up more than +10 bps. The labour market data is driving the rethink. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is actually up +3 bps at 5.35%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +8 bps from this time yesterday to 4.08% reflecting the RBA guidance. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 2.15% and off its all-time record low. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +10 bps at 4.39% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.29% and up +11 bps from yesterday. The "not-so-bad" labour market data has been noticed by markets. The UST 10yr yield is up +7 bps from this time yesterday at 3.90%. Their 2yr is now at 4.01%, so that curve is now inverted by just -11 bps.
EQUITIES TRY TO FORGET MONDAY
The NZX50 is up +0.5% in late trade today. The ASX200 is also up +0.5% in Wednesday afternoon trade. Tokyo has bounced back further in opening trade, up +2.3%. Hong Kong is up +1.2%. Shanghai however is only up +0.3% in its opening trade. Singapore is up +1.2%. Wall Street closed its Tuesday trade up a full +1.0% and a partial recovery.
OIL EASES
The oil price is down -US$1 from this time yesterday at US$72.50/bbl in the US, and at just underer US$76.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
Today the carbon price is essentially holding at $52.50/NZU today little-changed from yesterday's $53/NZU. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD LOWER
In early Asian trade, gold is down another -US$24 from this time yesterday at US$2383/oz.
NZD SURGES
The Kiwi dollar has risen +½c from this time yesterday, now back up to 60 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 91.7 AUc. Against the euro we are more than +½c at 55 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is at 68.8 with a strong daily recovery.
BITCOIN ACTS MORE LIKE OLD SELF
The bitcoin price is back up +2.5% today from this time yesterday, now at US$57,162. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.6%.
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85 Comments
It's good to see we all make mistakes - from the Morningstar Kiwisaver June 2024 report issued today on page two.
Inflation and Interest Rates
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintained its cautious stance, keeping interest rates steady at 4.5%. This decision reflected a balancing act between controlling inflation, which showed signs of moderating, and supporting economic growth, which remained tepid. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Q2 indicated a year-on-year inflation rate of 3.2%, down from 3.8% in Q1, suggesting thatinflationary pressures were easing but still above the RBNZ's target range.
Yet some keep making them... From Mr Alexander this afternoon.
"I can write glowingly about the upturn in our economy coming along as a result of interest rate cuts, which are arriving sooner than expected."
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/tony-alexander-why-interest-rate-cuts-wo…
Tony is not talking pooperty doubles every 10 years ie 7% pa, he is talking a low growth environment... therefore if you cannot make returns out of capital gain there is no point paying todays prices... you need yield instead.
I agree with him that NZD may not drop as far as in the past thus exporters will not save the day.
bag holders be looking like.... bag holdy
Waves of liquidations, be not that spruikery, in fact I see a lot of DGM in that missive. Sounds like something any DGM on here would write...
Nek Minute
I did.
And like the poster above, my first thought was "Some sense at last". But on reflection, I give Mr Alexander NO credit for this piece, as he and his ilk are substantially why we are where we are today. It's not this attempt at a fawning article that matters, but what has been written over the last decade and more by him and his like. And that view predates his 'independent' articles as a writer for One Roof, but extends way back to his days at BNZ. When, or more likely IF, there are more that follow in the same vein, then perhaps I may alter my opinion.
The young couple who have just bought next door to us said it took years of sacrifice and doing without to get the house. They have to have a boarder to make the project work. But they know they have made the correct decision. The avocado on toast was a metaphor for all the day to day immediate gratification spending people do instead of saving up their money for long term benefit. I see the avocado on toast people, and the saving hard people all around me. I know which ones are going to be better off, in terms of living a decent life, not just financially, in the long term.
The real question is, is that a way to run an economy? Spend nothing, purchase one asset in hopes of passing on crushing debt to future generations.
Are we really that naive to think that those exiting the housing market are better at spending money throughout our economy than young workers?
I thought we managed to eliminate the Avo on toast story about 2019 house prices, its well accepted now that MOST need help from mom and dad at current prices, but the Ponzi cannot survive on this crowd as there are not enough of them.
Houses have been expensive since 2015, with or without a full English. You Spuikers are stuck on an island with prices collapsing around you, I hope you have not followed your own advice and bought recently.
So the BOJ have said they will behave so not to cause any meltdown in the Anglosphere. We have the Japanese well trained. And they know they have to stop their nonsense cause Harris has an election to win.
With a US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement by Yellen, we will see an injection of $300bn to $1.05tn between now and the end of the year.
Party harder than you ever have before.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/boj-wont-raise…
BITCOIN ACTS MORE LIKE OLD SELF
Remember the hobgoblins who said Bitcoin was on its way to zero 2 days ago?
Never forget these people who show their true colors in moments of mass panic. They cannot be trusted and should probably be chided for their fear mongering.
Yeah guys, it's totally safe. Trust JC, he has all the chart evidence.
NVidia, Apple, the rest of the big stocks that are actual companies, and massively over valued, they'll get their day of reckoning.
But Bitcoin, the fundamentals are rock solid. It's value will definitely hold if things really turn to custard in the rest of the market. Drinks are on me in the Seychelles next August!
We can get there in our self driving Teslas.
Yeah guys, it's totally safe.
That's what I don't understand P. The general population wants and expects all asset prices to go up (as our leading lady Jacinda Ardern alluded to). That's the whole basis and attraction of Ponzinomics.
But for some reason whenever BTC moves up or down dramatically, people start screeching about Ponzis and scams as if they've encountered an existential threat.
This is like one of those debates we have whether NZ corruption is equivalent to corruption elsewhere.
What you're into is too much like a culty club. They often result in all the followers meeting a sticky end.
As I've said before though, if you cashed out today, and the time and energy you've put into BTC has paid you out more than what you could've earned working at the supermarket, you've done well.
As I've said before though, if you cashed out today, and the time and energy you've put into BTC
I would say minimum 1,000 to 10,000 hours to really start understanding anything - some things click, some do not. But if you're not prepared to think, best allocate your time elsewhere. Not just BTC, but any pursuit really. Remember, pilots and maritime captains take this stuff seriously.
I would say minimum 1,000 to 10,000 hours to really start understanding anything
Correct. And your subsequent daily reading and promotion about it. Probably 1000 hrs a year, if not more.
Basically, your outlay should've returned you a net half a million bucks by now. Likely more, if you've learned enough to truly make it "click".
And that's just to be as lucrative a use of your time as minimum wage at the supermarket. I assume you're able to add value to time better than that.
Don't just say it's a load of tosh, tell me how something with a value, isn't a store of value. H
Whether they're a "good" store of value, is another matter.
Although it sounds like I've done better storing my value in old cars than I would've storing it in BTC (and that's only by accident).
And your subsequent daily reading and promotion about it. Probably 1000 hrs a year, if not more.
1000 hours is not much. The equivalent of 125 x 8-hour days.
Basically, your outlay should've returned you a net half a million bucks by now.
The real OGs don't think in fiat. That's the first indicator you're still a normie.
I sorta worked on 2-3hrs a day on average.
But yeah that'd do it too.
The real OGs don't think in fiat. That's the first indicator you're still a normie.
I was gonna make the remark that'd you'd try and re-define what a net return was.
Correct though, if someone claims to be investing/making money, my weird benchmark is to establish that based on how much they've made over time. I put 10 acorns in, and now I can turn that into 20 acorns.
If your measure of success in investing differs from making a relative net positive return, we will never agree on much in that area.
I was gonna make the remark that'd you'd try and re-define what a net return was.
Seems most people are comfortable with zero BTC. Understandable considering most people don't think they need to own assets like gold.
Some others might set themselves targets - like BTC0.1. Remember, that's more than most people have in fiat cash savings.
Each person is different. That's perfectly natural. It's not a competition.
I guess everyone's got different aims.
I don't think property returns that well either, as a set and forget sort of undertaking. Then again I know people who've done well out of property (and other investments), but they've been a lot more experienced and directly involved in whatever they're invested in.
Most people don't seem to do much better than a managed fund, trying to work out making a dollar themselves. You really gotta treat it like a job, and be demonstratively good at it.
“In contrast to the process of policy interest rate hikes in Europe and the United States, Japan’s economy is not in a situation where the bank may fall behind the curve if it does not raise the policy interest rate at a certain pace,” Uchida said. “Therefore, the bank will not raise its policy interest rate when financial and capital markets are unstable.”
Well, dear central banker, a quick primer: this is called passive aggressive forward guidance. The Japanese market will now NEVER become "stable", in doing so preventing any more rate hikes, and in fact will become so unstable the BOJ will have to cut again.
If the yen collapses here they will have to lift rates, and this little wobble will look like a wobble, in comparison to what's going to happen...
HouseMouse a while back we discussed soft landings, you asked me what I defined as one for NZ, and I said unemployment < 5%, and you seemed to agree. (I may have also mentioned GDP but I can't remember what I said there).
Touch and go whether that happens or not, but do you still agree that would be a soft landing?
This is not good. Aussie is supposedly one of the wealthiest countries on earth.
One in four Australians fear becoming homeless, as the cost of living crisis continues to squeeze the country.
The Salvation Army's sentiment tracker found 25 per cent of people were worried about losing their home, while new research revealed it was even worse among those doing it tough.
https://www.9news.com.au/national/homelessness-fears-one-quarter-of-aus…
Capitalism was born when there was a nearly-fully-stocked planet.
In the halcyon years, there was enough that it could be spread into the middle, and even the lower, classes. First World, mind; not the Third.
Then the Great Acceleration did depletion enough, that competition started - somewhere in the mid-70s.
And things have gotten exponentially worse, since then. Less and less can access the trough. And those who can, are pigging out.
But when the trough is half-empty, GROWTH is over. And those who are hungry, will riot. Tell any story, deny any denial, but that's what is happening.
The mid 1970s the halcyon of life as we know it, beatles, rocknroll, radio with pictures, long hair, sexploration, communes, music festivals ... and great LSD
Oh and PDKs weeping, howling and lamenting while wearing his hand knitted jumper could only be heard in small rooms in shivering Otago
We cant have it ALL !
I am keen to be convinced.
Food bank numbers tell a story.
Obesity rate tells another one.
Capitalism has helped make such luxurious high technology goods accessible to most everyone.
The downside is, invariably the ownership of capital is consolidated, making most relatively poorer.
Excess food everywhere. So much so we can afford to give it away to food banks. Brought to you by fossil fuels and capitalism.
Todays poor may be relatively more poor than todays rich but I’d suggest todays poor are not more poor than yesterday’s poor but that today’s rich are many times more rich than yesterday’s rich.
Appears the left is happy with hate speech and racism as long as it’s coming from the left!
Note people, the happening in UK at moment and how the oppressed became the oppressor in Russia and South Africa…. Think about the direction we’re heading next time we’re at the ballot box (that is if democracy is still alive in NZ)
Chuckle.
At least with others, you can understand their nonsense (lauding 8 billion as if it were a permanent achievement rather than sapience-less stupidity of the species involved) but I had trouble with that one too.
Funny how far folk can get down rabbit-holes.
I think he's referring to immigration changing the fabric of society and how a hard left Labour Govt has turned against the indigenous Brits including applying different policing standards depending on ethnicity.
I noticed that Labour, stopped the pensioners winter fuel subsidy, all the while paying illegal migrants to stay in 4* accomodation. Illegal immigrants are running at around 700 to 800 per day and receive accom, meals, phones and cash.
I'd be on the streets as well.
British Labour? Hard Left?
Maybe there is a parallel universe.
They bought into Bernays, a long time ago. As did the US Dems. Sure, both have soft rump rank-and-file, but the leadership are well aware where their sponsorship comes from.
They've been a party of two-faced slogans for decades.
Two tier policing? C'mon man don't tell me you've been sucked in to the extremist propaganda too.
It won't be long before this gets picked up by the coalition and we start hearing how Maori benefit from two-tier policing. In the UK immigrants are the other, in NZ, the coalition are working hard to make Maori the other.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/aug/06/england-riots-t…
It would be really interesting to understand the dynamics and the motivations of different instigators of what's happening in the uk right now.
The worry is how so many people seem to be motivated by the group opions and are getting involved in the violence. It must say something about the feelings that are simmering away in a large portion of society.
The property market is making a comeback?
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/south-auckland-auction-bags-over-22m-of-…
Baaaaa, man he got you. Basing the recovery on group stupidity may not be the smartest thing to admit.
However, prices weren’t the whole story, though. “People were saying to me, ‘It feels like we’ve turned a corner’, that there was a lot of positivity in the market,” he said.
“Once you have communal positivity, things become more positive because we’re sheep in this country, when it comes to confidence.”
keep posting and I will keep putting the articles through my BullShit meter for you
The SEC and DOJ charge Nader Al-Naji, the founder of crypto social media platform BitClout, with wire fraud and the sale of unregistered offerings of crypto asset securities.
Al-Naiji was among Forbes 30 under 30. Also on this list were Shkreli, SBF, Caroline Ellison, Elizabeth Holmes, Trevor Milton (Nikola Motors).
https://www.dailyprincetonian.com/article/2024/08/bitclout-founder-nada…
https://www.forbes.com/profile/nader-al-naji/
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