Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Two building societies, WBS and Heretaunga BS both reduced fixed home loan rates today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Heartland Bank reduced TD rates today, as did the Police Credit Union, Heretaunga BS, and China Construction Bank. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
MORE SALES AT LOWER PRICES
Dominant Auckland realtor Barfoot & Thompson said their average selling price dropped -$108,700 in July and the median price was down -$50,000. But that fall helped push sales volumes up with vendors 'prepared to meet the market' to get a transaction done.
HOLDING
Commodity prices were little-changed in July in NZD, but down from June to May's level in USD. However. that still makes then more than +8% higher than year ago levels in USD, +11% in NZD.
GRIM WINTER TRADING
Retail spending as monitored by payments processor Worldline was weaker in July. In fact only two regions booked an increase from the same month a year ago - Whanganui and Marlborough. It will make grim reading for retailers.
NATURAL HAZARD INSURANCE COVER
The Natural Hazards Commission (ex-EQC) says a NielsenIQ report has found that only a third (33%) of insured homeowners are confident they know what damage to their home would or would not be covered by insurance after a natural hazard event. Even fewer (26%) were confident they understood what would be covered for damage to their land. They have five suggestions.
PROCEEDS OF CRIME RECOVERY
The Police have recovered almost $620,000 as proceeds from crime in relation to illegal gambling (poker) and money laundering, related to an operation run by a Lower Hutt man, Thomas Mackay Taniwha. This was in addition to the Court penalty of $16,500.
NEW DIRECTOR FOR RABOBANK NZ
Angelique Meddeler, the Netherlands-based Chief Compliance Officer for the Rabobank Group, joins the Rabobank NZ board effective today. Rabobank NZ Chairman Chris Black says Meddeler’s extensive experience in international banking and strong knowledge of the regulatory landscape make her an ideal fit.
EYEWATERING EXPENDS
This cold snap is driving very high electricity prices nationwide and now all day long. Hydro lake levels are low and flows are below normal.
SWAP RATES FALL AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are probably lower today across the curve, possibly sharply. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -11 bps at 5.33% and a new 500 day low, back to the level just before the surprise +50 bps OCR hike in April 2023. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps from this time yesterday to 4.05%. The China 10 year bond rate is still at 2.12% and an all-time record low. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -6 bps at 4.21% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.17% and down -5 bps from Friday. The UST 10yr yield is down another -2 bps from this morning at 3.77%. Their 2yr is now at 3.86%, so that curve is now inverted much less, now by -9 bps. That is near the least inversion in two years.
EQUITIES IN MORE RETREATS
The NZX50 is down -1.7% in late trade on the global risk pullback. But the ASX200 is down a sharper -2.5% in afternoon trade. Worse, Tokyo has opened its Monday trade down another -4.6% in a crushing retreat. Hong Kong is down -0.6% at its open. Shanghai is down -0.2%. Singapore is down -2.8%. Wall Street is looking to open its Monday session tomorrow with the futures markets suggesting the S&P500 will open -0.8% lower than Friday's close
OIL HOLDS LOWER
The oil price is little-changed from this morning's open at US$73.50/bbl in the US, and at just over US$77/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
Today the carbon price is still at $53/NZU today unchanged from Friday. That puts it little-different than the same day a year ago, which back then was a period of unusual volatility. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is little-changed from this morning at US$2442/oz.
NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from this morning, still at 59.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are at 54.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still basically at 68.4.
BITCOIN CRASHES LOWER
The bitcoin price is sharply lower, even from where we were this morning. It is down another -7.3% in those eight hours to US$53,891. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been extreme at just on +/- 8%.
USE OF AI
No articles on this news service are produced with AI. Occasionally we use AI to derive images. They are always identified in the attribution.
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161 Comments
Great reading/gossip about Du Val.
There's an actual Ponzi, where the entity running it is burning cash, and you are bankrolling their lifestyle/spending/own investing.
And the banking "ponzi", which is more of a pyramid, where the earlier entrants are considerably advantaged, but the system only really pays off if there's a stream of new entrants.
I really struggle to feel strongly either way. In places where banking is way more expensive, houses are generally cheaper but that's because there's also less investment in things that support higher wages, and the average schlub has a much harder time ever being to obtain the capital to expand themselves commercially.
On the downside of such abundant credit, there's all the moral hazard and sustainability issues should credit get more expensive.
Like stealing most involves less effort and skill then taking the legal course of actions. It just shows Clarke is mentally more deficient then most people. What he does is not smart or intelligent, it is unethical. It is hard to admire someone who does really stupid things just with low ethics. Easy to trick those who are in a high trust relationships with the scammer & optimism bias who are often family, partners and friends as well, or those affected by accidents or disease including cancer, those with cognitive decline like elderly, low education and unfamiliarity with tech more then others. Why we don't all do these stupid things to scam millions from others is because we have a shred of ethics and would not sell our family for a quick buck.
But sure easy to see where you are standing. Hey did you try selling the miracle natural immunity boosting water yet or how about the never fail investment ponzi to your community & the church groups. The faithful, those suffering illness and those in your social circles are even easier targets because of the community connections. It gets even easier if you on purpose target those who have direct relationships with you or are local businesses. Once done all you need to do is a rinse and repeat for locations & community groups. Plus family are stuck with you and often culturally are forced to forgive & give infinite second chances, The Fools.
😂
[deleted] OP•1d ago
Kenyon, if you’re reading this. I know you’re frantically trying to figure out who I am. It’s gotta be an insider. They know way too much. Who the fuck is it? Could it be you Owen? Fuck, it must be Martyn. But how could he betray me? Fuck. Can’t be Martyn, he would never…
Ben…? Chef Mikey?!
Charlotte? Could it be Charlotte? She’s dead if it’s her
lol
In the second link an insider has dished the dirt to an incredibly granular level.
There is no way any NZ investor is getting a red cent back, they are well down the credit stack on assets that will struggle to sell for 50c in the $. One of those sites has 4 Mortgages on it with Du Val bottom and PIK notes above it.
Holy toledo batman...
This is your classic market "tanty", we hit an all time high in a number of indices, but because rate cuts are a few months later than investors feel entitled to, or that we need to justify inflated asset values, we see some profit taking.
We are supposed to look up to these guys/girls? Puhlease.
Wrack and ruin everywhere I look.
Stocks might look ugly(er?) tomorrow. Might have to trim even more crypto positions (only have 5-10% left since my sales over the last few months). At least I have lots of stable coins.
Gold looking very interesting. I have a very small position but might actually be a decent safe haven.
This who discuss the carry trade are still seen as a bunch of crackpots. It's not in the mainstream conversation, mainly because nobody's been interested. Here's some of today's highlights:
- Circuit breaker trigger kicked in for Topix soon after market opening. Index down 20% since July peaks. Nikkei fell up to 7%. Nikkei 225 set to post its largest 2-day drop in history - . even larger drop than the Black Monday crash of 87. South Korea halted all sell orders as markets crash.
- Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group fell by up to 20%. If you don't know who and how powerful MUFG is, do some research.
- JPYUSD powering ahead and now up 12.1% in 30 days. Unheard of. Kiwi peso now down 15%+ relative to JPY in same time period.
- Japan needs to sell US debt to plug the holes in their banks and pension funds. This could potentially crash Treasury markets already at their limits thanks to Sleepy Joe and his $2 trillion deficits.
In the past Mrs Watanabe has been taken out behind the shed in these events, now its about to be the professional trading desk that has to pick up the soap in a dodgy bath house. Not the traditional soapland that many of these traders prefer.
I have had the opportunity to watch these past crashes up close working on trading floors in London and NZ, from the Dot Com through to the GFC.
The Fed and the BoJ must have multiple secure zooms/teams up right now, they have to manage this or its a global lost decade.
I reckon they are screwed as the entire world just wants to protect its own patch now days....
US debt accounts for about a quarter of outstanding foreign investment.
3 days ago
Stock markets plunge as weak US jobs fuel fears
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c7202xvpwn5o
1hr ago
Global stock markets sink on US economy fears
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6p224j24x0o
"Over the weekend, veteran US investor Warren Buffett's firm Berkshire Hathaway revealed that it had sold about half its stake in US technology giant Apple."
The good thing crypto is it has probably had its main dump.
We're not finished yet Wolfie. Might just be getting started. Paper hands apocalypse for some. Opportunities for others. Some added pressure as rumors are that market maker Jump Trader in serious trouble.
Natural Hazard Insurance Cover. Hardly surprising that the majority of the insured have little idea of what they are actually covered for. That fact was demonstrated hand over fist throughout the Canterbury EQ sequences. As was the case, and still is the case, inevitably you do not discover what you are actually covered for until you make a claim and that generally unfortunately, will reveal a huge gulf between what you think and what your insurer agrees to.
Well put. Although for every seller there is a buyer at some stage. But are we into the "catch a falling knife" stage today? If what we see today evolves, no one is going to put in a bid anywhere near last market price, and then we get the fun bit - gaps. And those can be terrifying. "85/95 - Given at 85! ....silence....next price 35/4... Given at 35.....silence...)
At some stage, it is 100% certain we will see a reconciliation between amount betted, and future underwrite.
Just as at some stage, there will be a reconciliation between a species in overshoot, and the carrying-capacity of the planet.
Whether this is the cascade-moment, or not, will only be visible in the rear view mirror. But the longer time marches on, the more likely an inevitable event becomes.
That will happen PDK but with the unlimited F..kery of central banks, I think we have a turn or two yet....
The public has unlimited gullibility.. look they actually stood bye with Trump and Biden the only candidates ....
Play the game, not fix the game, right now there are huge profits to be made on the downside if you can protect your entry
https://www.macrotrends.net/2554/euro-japanese-yen-exchange-rate-histor…
if this bounces SELL
or just enter short with with an call option limiting losses , this sucker is going down
No - we see myopic fixation on miniature 'causes' for a long time now. That's just the 'industry' trying to maintain the illusion that it knows what it is doing.
It doesn't.
This is the biggest Ponzi the planet has ever seen (and if certain media persona had applied a consistent approach???) and something was going to 'trigger' it.
The 1% will attempt to bail it out with public debt (as Obama was forced to do) but there comes a time when belief fades. Also the public are tapped-out. There used to be a middle-class - but they are nowadays referred-to as the Precariat. Our current Government is attempting to increase the ponzi-lever; shafting those at the bottom, and increasingly in what was the middle. The joke always was that when the whole ship sank, the 1% held proxy worth F/A.
Whether this is 'it', or whether we've another event or two to go, time will tell. But IT is coming. Learn how to grow food - learn a useful skill.
ASIO lifts terror threat level to 'probable' amid heightened tensions over war in Gaza
ASIO lifts terror threat level to 'probable' amid heightened tensions over war in Gaza - ABC News
...nothing to do with the General election ~9 months away?
my post was at 4:47 ish have a stop loss now
on the worst day of the GFC i saw it drop 8 big figs, I know as I was wrong way the last 3....
still made it all back on AUDNZD that night, once markets totally fail no one keeps arbitrage systems up and the crosses go nuts as no one is enforcing anything, imho we are weeks/months away from that...
Banks tipping their leveraged prime brokerage customers out of position.
Topix down 11%+. Nikkei 225 down 13%.
Nikkei 225: Tracks 225 large-cap companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It's a price-weighted index, meaning that stocks with higher prices have a greater influence on the index's overall performance.
TOPIX: Represents all common stocks listed on the TSE, around 1,700 companies.
And there's more buyers than sellers
That implies the sellers are dealing in larger volumes than the buyers.
Let me explain. There is a market price. Below the market price there are buyers and above the market price there are sellers.
82x more buy orders exist than sell orders. It makes sense to buy at a lower price than a higher price.
There's probably half a dozen who've semi-accurately mapped out what's been unfolding.
Then there's also some that have niche knowledge on specific subjects.
Anyway, when am I coming to chef on your superyacht? You must have made a killing the last 12 months deploying your expertise buying low and selling high.
Love how the experts are out tonight....lets see whos standing after the dust settles...
According to Unusual Whales, 274,729 crypto traders liquidated in the last 24 hours - total liquidations at $1.04 billion. Should be a better source than UW.
Solution is simple. Don't trade. Know your strategy and risk tolerance.
Let me explain. There is a market price. Below the market price there are buyers and above the market price there are sellers.
82x more buy orders exist than sell orders. It makes sense to buy at a lower price than a higher price.
It's meaningless data. All it tells us is a few players sold off big, and a whole bunch of small players are buying crumbs in the dip. Cause that's apparently how you make money.
It's meaningless data. All it tells us is a few players sold off big, and a whole bunch of small players are buying crumbs in the dip. Cause that's apparently how you make money.
It's useful data, particularly if you track it over time. And also particularly useful in the context of days like today.
I suppose if I had a business and my transaction count was going one way, and my revenue another, I guess I'd want to know that.
If an exchange (a business) sets transaction fees at 0.05%, revenue can be the same at $1,000 or $1 mio, depending on transaction volume.
No doubt the market direction is south. The point is that if you have so many buy positions, this causes 'friction'. If there are no buyers, the probability that the market price goes into free fall is high. With BTC, this could happen much easier in the past. As IT says, bots can be used to create the impression that there are more buyers that what actually exist. One of the benefits of using Bitbank Japan is that this is regulated more than in the West and on platforms such as Binance.
oh you mean the honest ones taking capital from "wholesale investors" and family and friends, and friends of family and friends
and lending it out on investments that lose $15k a year each...or developers mass producing loss making investments
where are the fundamentals in any of this?
what a racket
Er not really and the rates they charge are criminal esp to those who are forced to use them to get by. But sure legit... except don't read the fine print of the loan terms... you don't need to right. Might I suggest actually reading the contracts they use. They are less and less legit with each paragraph.
Queen Anne’s coverage of de value is quite ironic given her rag has pumped them a bit in the past:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/du-val-interim-receivership-64-comp…
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance kid ride to the rescue, though this time it will be a black lesbian poet on a donkey and a hormone blocking indigenous transgender kid, on an e scooter..... (thanks to diversity hiring, we do not call them dykes anymore PDK)
Yeah its believable, I can trust these guys.....
At least its only money, unlike mining and deep sea oil exploration, no one dies in banking.
Margin call Monday has arrived on Planet earth. 1.4 quadrillion in credit derivatives is now unwinding. Crashes like this happen quickly as a debt deflation spiral takes hold. Only the silent generation have lived through what comes next, I hope everyone has prepared accordingly.
I like it but I find the combo a bit sharp, both hop notes are short and punchy, there is no base note.... I like to layer in Amarillo early or something like US cascade... but you have to be so careful or it becomes a pale ale with no malt character.
I reckon brewing is like playing music with hops.
I used 100% pils malt, by using about 20-30% Vienna malt you have more malt backbone to play with, but... its not then a pils is it, its now a pale ale.
Nelson, riwaka, motueka have always been the trifecta for NZ Pils but as you say, the ratios are key. Could always try a small sprinkle of Munich malt in there with the vienna for a touch more breadiness. Either way, it’s coming up Oktoberfest season so get those Märzens on the way 🤤
Hartnett: "An Old School Risk-Off" And Why You Should Sell The First Rate Cut
"People underestimate how much lower rates may need to go to stimulate a weak economy no longer juiced by government spending."
This is what Milton Friedman called the interest rate fallacy, and it indeed refuses to die. We can tell what monetary conditions are in the real economy, as opposed to financial liquidity, though the two can be linked, by the general level of interest rates. When money is plentiful, interest rates will be high not low; and when money is restricted, interest rates will be low not high. The reason is as Wicksell described more than a century ago:
[The natural rate] is never high or low in itself, but only in relation to the profit which people can make with the money in their hands, and this, of course, varies. In good times, when trade is brisk, the rate of profit is high, and, what is of great consequence, is generally expected to remain high; in periods of depression it is low, and expected to remain low.
When nominal profits are expected to be robust, holders of money must be compensated for lending it out by higher interest rates. Thus, the same holds for inflationary circumstances, where nominal profits follow the rate of consumer prices. During the Great Inflation, interest rates weren’t low at all, they were through the roof well into double digits and higher by 1980. At the opposite end in the Great Depression, interest rates were low and stayed there because, as Wicksell wrote, the rate of profit was low and was expected to be low well into the future. High quality borrowers were given as much money as they could want while the rest of the economy was deprived of funds; liquidity and safety being the only preferences in what sounds entirely familiar. Link
Japan's market is a perfect example of depression economics, or how low rates are NOT stimulus. They are and have always been about tight money/deflation. That's why rates/mkts keep rejecting rate hikes & "inflation" CBs claim to fear. https://buff.ly/46fOvL3 Link
next few days the party will be over at https://www.zerohedge.com/
they have been waiting since the GFC
in about 2 months time when markets are down (kiwisaver 20%) queue , its better not to panic, time in the dunny beats timing the dunny etc
sheep are so easy you shear them once a year
As usual the NZ media have their heads firmly up their bottoms not realising how serious these drops in Japan are.
They're producing content at targeted demographics.
If you pulled up 100 people on the street most of them couldn't give two rats about what the market is doing.
DLS at Maccy B reckons interest rate cuts in 25/26 will be much larger than most are expecting:
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2024/08/big-interest-rate-cuts-are-com…
bear market short covering rallies are the most vicious of all, short at the tops.....
easier said then done
you need breasts of steel (used to be balls before wokery took over)
so now we have traded 58-49.4k in BTC in recent hours there is no support anywhere its a cluserf
..... so range is like $9kusd in like 24hrs
its a meltdown BTC is NOT a safe haven asset
so now we have traded 58-49.4k in BTC in recent hours there is no support anywhere its a cluserf
..... so range is like $9kusd in like 24hrs
its a meltdown BTC is NOT a safe haven asset
These are very relevant points. In previous bull runs, up to 35% drawdowns were common.
I'm backing up the truck at USD12K.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/350368288/japans-nikkei-225-index-plun…
made front page
hidden on back pages
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/growth-scare-sets-up-markets-for-fr…
Global rout: Japan’s stock index suffers worst day since 1987
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