Currencies
The US economy expanded underpinned by strong consumer spending. UK gilts were volatile as UK chancellor delivered her debut budget and the market digested plans to ramp up borrowing
31st Oct 24, 7:51am
The US economy expanded underpinned by strong consumer spending. UK gilts were volatile as UK chancellor delivered her debut budget and the market digested plans to ramp up borrowing
Global asset markets little changed. US job openings, a proxy for labour demand, fell to the lowest level since February 2021. Oil prices stabilise as geopolitical risk premium eased
30th Oct 24, 7:35am
Global asset markets little changed. US job openings, a proxy for labour demand, fell to the lowest level since February 2021. Oil prices stabilise as geopolitical risk premium eased
Oil prices slide 5% as geopolitical risk premium fades. JPY weaker following Japan’s Lower House election. The Trump trade extends, with higher US Treasury yields, higher US equities and a broadly stronger USD
29th Oct 24, 7:21am
Oil prices slide 5% as geopolitical risk premium fades. JPY weaker following Japan’s Lower House election. The Trump trade extends, with higher US Treasury yields, higher US equities and a broadly stronger USD
Roger J Kerr looks at what betting markets are indicating and what traders are thinking. Self-interested bias with OPM? Meanwhile, Japanese political turmoil confuses the interest rate and Yen currency outlook
28th Oct 24, 9:10am
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Roger J Kerr looks at what betting markets are indicating and what traders are thinking. Self-interested bias with OPM? Meanwhile, Japanese political turmoil confuses the interest rate and Yen currency outlook
Market movements modest, with US equities currently showing a small gain, while global rates are lower after their recent rise. Global PMI data were in line with expectations, with small changes in October
25th Oct 24, 7:57am
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Market movements modest, with US equities currently showing a small gain, while global rates are lower after their recent rise. Global PMI data were in line with expectations, with small changes in October
Softer tone for global equities continues. The US dollar index reached the highest level since July. Gold prices pulled back from a record high
24th Oct 24, 7:49am
Softer tone for global equities continues. The US dollar index reached the highest level since July. Gold prices pulled back from a record high
There was no respite for global bond markets with yields moving higher in an extension of the large moves from the previous day. Asset markets are little changed in the absence of first-tier economic data
23rd Oct 24, 7:39am
There was no respite for global bond markets with yields moving higher in an extension of the large moves from the previous day. Asset markets are little changed in the absence of first-tier economic data
US 10yr note yield at highest level since July. USD stronger across the board. Geopolitics and US election race to influence this week's directional moves
22nd Oct 24, 7:56am
US 10yr note yield at highest level since July. USD stronger across the board. Geopolitics and US election race to influence this week's directional moves
Global rates are broadly higher without a satisfactory explanation. US Treasury yields are up 7-9bps across the curve with some even larger moves in many European countries. Higher rates have driven weaker equity markets
22nd Oct 24, 7:26am
Global rates are broadly higher without a satisfactory explanation. US Treasury yields are up 7-9bps across the curve with some even larger moves in many European countries. Higher rates have driven weaker equity markets
Roger J Kerr looks at the scenarios and potential outcome of the US election
China activity data showed a lift in momentum. Japan CPI inflation now above target for a full 2½ years. US equities extending their record-breaking run
21st Oct 24, 7:20am
China activity data showed a lift in momentum. Japan CPI inflation now above target for a full 2½ years. US equities extending their record-breaking run
Stronger than expected US retail sales data saw the market pare the scope for easier Fed policy and drove higher US Treasury yields. The AUD was supported after a strong labour market report
18th Oct 24, 7:41am
Stronger than expected US retail sales data saw the market pare the scope for easier Fed policy and drove higher US Treasury yields. The AUD was supported after a strong labour market report
US equities modestly higher after yesterday's dip. Soft NZ and UK CPI data drive the market to bring forward projected rate cuts for the RBNZ and BoE. Broad USD strength as the Trump trade continues
17th Oct 24, 7:43am
US equities modestly higher after yesterday's dip. Soft NZ and UK CPI data drive the market to bring forward projected rate cuts for the RBNZ and BoE. Broad USD strength as the Trump trade continues
Oil prices fell after reports that Israel wouldn’t target Iran’s crude infrastructure. Lower oil prices have contributed to a pullback in global bond yields. Currency markets generally subdued
16th Oct 24, 7:46am
Oil prices fell after reports that Israel wouldn’t target Iran’s crude infrastructure. Lower oil prices have contributed to a pullback in global bond yields. Currency markets generally subdued
US equities continue their record-breaking run. Market reaction to the underwhelming weekend policy announcement by China well contained. Signs of a return to the Trump trade, with the USD broadly stronger
15th Oct 24, 7:58am
US equities continue their record-breaking run. Market reaction to the underwhelming weekend policy announcement by China well contained. Signs of a return to the Trump trade, with the USD broadly stronger
Roger J Kerr says the the reality is that the New Zealand economy still has a major problem with sticky/high non-tradable inflation from the public sector and non-competitive sectors of the economy
14th Oct 24, 8:59am
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Roger J Kerr says the the reality is that the New Zealand economy still has a major problem with sticky/high non-tradable inflation from the public sector and non-competitive sectors of the economy
The S&P500 closed at another record high. US PPI data as expected. China's Finance Minister outlined plans to issue more debt to support the economy. Bond yields are modestly higher
14th Oct 24, 7:34am
The S&P500 closed at another record high. US PPI data as expected. China's Finance Minister outlined plans to issue more debt to support the economy. Bond yields are modestly higher
Is US exceptionalism back? US economy a notable outperformer. FOMC minutes confirm majority favoured a 50 bps cut, with a few preferring 25 bps
14th Oct 24, 7:20am
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Is US exceptionalism back? US economy a notable outperformer. FOMC minutes confirm majority favoured a 50 bps cut, with a few preferring 25 bps
The IMF says currency intervention should be used as part of an integrated policy approach that incorporates other policy levers to mitigate risks
12th Oct 24, 9:00am
The IMF says currency intervention should be used as part of an integrated policy approach that incorporates other policy levers to mitigate risks
US CPI data was higher than consensus estimates but had limited lasting market impact. Currency markets subdued overall. Chinese equities remain volatile
11th Oct 24, 7:45am
US CPI data was higher than consensus estimates but had limited lasting market impact. Currency markets subdued overall. Chinese equities remain volatile
US equity markets supported ahead of key inflation data with the S&P500 at a fresh record high. Chinese stocks fell 7% on uncertainty about stimulus measures. US Treasury yields moved higher supporting the US dollar
10th Oct 24, 7:55am
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US equity markets supported ahead of key inflation data with the S&P500 at a fresh record high. Chinese stocks fell 7% on uncertainty about stimulus measures. US Treasury yields moved higher supporting the US dollar
Stocks in Hong Kong fell sharply after a key briefing from Chinese officials underwhelmed investors. Oil prices retraced from recent highs. Global bond and currency markets little changed overall
9th Oct 24, 7:43am
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Stocks in Hong Kong fell sharply after a key briefing from Chinese officials underwhelmed investors. Oil prices retraced from recent highs. Global bond and currency markets little changed overall
10-year US treasuries have traded back above 4%, the highest level since August, as investors continue to recalibrate the outlook for monetary policy. Brent crude prices advanced above US$80
8th Oct 24, 7:44am
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10-year US treasuries have traded back above 4%, the highest level since August, as investors continue to recalibrate the outlook for monetary policy. Brent crude prices advanced above US$80
Blowout US jobs report, NFP sharply higher, jobless rate falls from 4.2% to 4.1%. Rates markets hawkishly reprice, stripping out odds of 50bps of November cut. US treasury yields and the dollar rip higher
7th Oct 24, 9:04am
Blowout US jobs report, NFP sharply higher, jobless rate falls from 4.2% to 4.1%. Rates markets hawkishly reprice, stripping out odds of 50bps of November cut. US treasury yields and the dollar rip higher
Roger J Kerr says the latest US jobs data leaves unanswered questions
