Currencies
Trump considers windback of tariffs to help the auto sector, following the carve-out for some electronic goods from China. Calmer markets. US Treasuries reverse some of last week's movement. Global equities recover
15th Apr 25, 7:47am
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Trump considers windback of tariffs to help the auto sector, following the carve-out for some electronic goods from China. Calmer markets. US Treasuries reverse some of last week's movement. Global equities recover
Roger J Kerr says when international confidence in an economy and currency is lost, its value can only go one way
14th Apr 25, 8:31am
Roger J Kerr says when international confidence in an economy and currency is lost, its value can only go one way
[updated]
Long-dated US treasury yields continue eye-watering ascent, 10-yr closes near 4.50%. US equity markets higher, logging best week since November 2023
14th Apr 25, 7:52am
Long-dated US treasury yields continue eye-watering ascent, 10-yr closes near 4.50%. US equity markets higher, logging best week since November 2023
US dollar under pressure with higher UST yields not providing support. The USD index fell to a three year low. The Michigan consumer sentiment survey expectations index slumped to the lowest level since 1980 while inflation expectations continued to rise
14th Apr 25, 7:28am
US dollar under pressure with higher UST yields not providing support. The USD index fell to a three year low. The Michigan consumer sentiment survey expectations index slumped to the lowest level since 1980 while inflation expectations continued to rise
Further large swings in asset markets. US equities fall sharply. US CPI softer than expected though the data predates the impact of tariffs. Gold prices reach another record high
11th Apr 25, 7:59am
Further large swings in asset markets. US equities fall sharply. US CPI softer than expected though the data predates the impact of tariffs. Gold prices reach another record high
Equity indices surge higher after Trump announced a 90 day pause on the implementation of tariffs on non-retaliating countries. The S&P gained more than 7%. Huge bond market volatility
10th Apr 25, 7:45am
Equity indices surge higher after Trump announced a 90 day pause on the implementation of tariffs on non-retaliating countries. The S&P gained more than 7%. Huge bond market volatility
Market focus on tariff negotiations with countries lined up; China is a notable exception and China said it will "fight to end". Markets remain choppy; Big early gain in US equities eroded
9th Apr 25, 7:51am
Market focus on tariff negotiations with countries lined up; China is a notable exception and China said it will "fight to end". Markets remain choppy; Big early gain in US equities eroded
Some wild market movements overnight; S&P500 trades a high/low range of 8.5%; EU working out how to retaliate. Bond markets sell off; UST 10-year rate trades above 4.2% overnight, curve steepens
8th Apr 25, 7:46am
Some wild market movements overnight; S&P500 trades a high/low range of 8.5%; EU working out how to retaliate. Bond markets sell off; UST 10-year rate trades above 4.2% overnight, curve steepens
Roger J Kerr says the Trump regime appear disturbingly unaware of the damage they have created in attempting to reverse globalisation and build a protective wall around the US economy
7th Apr 25, 8:54am
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Roger J Kerr says the Trump regime appear disturbingly unaware of the damage they have created in attempting to reverse globalisation and build a protective wall around the US economy
Extreme volatility across global markets after China escalated the trade war by hitting an extra 34% tariff on US goods. S&P closed 6% lower as growth assets slumped. Powell focused on inflation suggesting limited scope for a near-term policy pivot
7th Apr 25, 7:20am
Extreme volatility across global markets after China escalated the trade war by hitting an extra 34% tariff on US goods. S&P closed 6% lower as growth assets slumped. Powell focused on inflation suggesting limited scope for a near-term policy pivot
Trump's reciprocal tariff policy was much worse than expected, rocking financial markets. Flight to quality as global equities plunge. Bonds well supported. Oil prices plunge on global growth concerns and OPEC+ production upscale
4th Apr 25, 7:57am
Trump's reciprocal tariff policy was much worse than expected, rocking financial markets. Flight to quality as global equities plunge. Bonds well supported. Oil prices plunge on global growth concerns and OPEC+ production upscale
Reports the US 'reciprocal tariffs' will come in three bands, differing by country and industry. Wall Street rises. US Treasury yields rise
3rd Apr 25, 7:47am
Reports the US 'reciprocal tariffs' will come in three bands, differing by country and industry. Wall Street rises. US Treasury yields rise
US economic data reflects economic uncertainty ahead of tariffs. ISM manufacturing index below expectations. Details point to weak activity and increasing inflation pressures. UST 10-year yield at lowest level since early March
2nd Apr 25, 7:45am
US economic data reflects economic uncertainty ahead of tariffs. ISM manufacturing index below expectations. Details point to weak activity and increasing inflation pressures. UST 10-year yield at lowest level since early March
US tariff uncertainty weighs on global equity markets; some chunky falls across the world and US equities on track for their worst quarter in nearly three years. Oil prices higher after Trump mulls secondary tariffs for buyers of Russian crude
1st Apr 25, 7:49am
US tariff uncertainty weighs on global equity markets; some chunky falls across the world and US equities on track for their worst quarter in nearly three years. Oil prices higher after Trump mulls secondary tariffs for buyers of Russian crude
The world at the end of March is a very different place than in January, says David Skilling. And this is only the start of disruptive change in the global economic & geopolitical system
31st Mar 25, 10:03am
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The world at the end of March is a very different place than in January, says David Skilling. And this is only the start of disruptive change in the global economic & geopolitical system
Roger J Kerr says what has been really surprising to see over recent months since Donald Trump came to power is the incredibly poor management of their economic policy changes
31st Mar 25, 9:06am
Roger J Kerr says what has been really surprising to see over recent months since Donald Trump came to power is the incredibly poor management of their economic policy changes
Concerns about the widening trade war and stagflationary US economic data weighed on risk sensitive assets. US real consumption undershot expectations while core PCE moved higher. The S&P500 fell contributing to a rally in US treasuries and gold
31st Mar 25, 7:20am
Concerns about the widening trade war and stagflationary US economic data weighed on risk sensitive assets. US real consumption undershot expectations while core PCE moved higher. The S&P500 fell contributing to a rally in US treasuries and gold
Markets dismiss latest US tariff announcements in sign of tariff fatigue. Market impact contained to auto & transport stocks. Currencies, commodities, bond rates stay within tight ranges
28th Mar 25, 8:44am
Markets dismiss latest US tariff announcements in sign of tariff fatigue. Market impact contained to auto & transport stocks. Currencies, commodities, bond rates stay within tight ranges
Trade war intensifies after Trump orders 25% tariffs on imports of foreign-made cars, bringing retaliation threats from the EU, Canada, Japan and South Korea
28th Mar 25, 8:34am
Trade war intensifies after Trump orders 25% tariffs on imports of foreign-made cars, bringing retaliation threats from the EU, Canada, Japan and South Korea
Soft risk tone overnight as uncertainty about US trade policy weighs on investor sentiment. US traded copper futures reach a record high after a 25% plus gain since the start of the year
27th Mar 25, 7:46am
Soft risk tone overnight as uncertainty about US trade policy weighs on investor sentiment. US traded copper futures reach a record high after a 25% plus gain since the start of the year
Progress in Russia-Ukraine peace deal. White House conflict on tariff basis. US Conference Board consumer confidence plunges, as per the University of Michigan survey
26th Mar 25, 7:51am
Progress in Russia-Ukraine peace deal. White House conflict on tariff basis. US Conference Board consumer confidence plunges, as per the University of Michigan survey
Risk appetite higher as market embraces view that 'Liberation Day' will see narrower scope of tariffs than previously thought. US services PMI stronger than expected, allaying recession fears. US Treasury yields up towards top of recent trading range
25th Mar 25, 7:48am
Risk appetite higher as market embraces view that 'Liberation Day' will see narrower scope of tariffs than previously thought. US services PMI stronger than expected, allaying recession fears. US Treasury yields up towards top of recent trading range
Roger J Kerr looks forward into the remainder of 2025 to project what the likely forces will be on the Kiwi dollar
24th Mar 25, 9:26am
Roger J Kerr looks forward into the remainder of 2025 to project what the likely forces will be on the Kiwi dollar
Dovish FOMC reaction fades, DXY probing top of recent range. Trump comments on tariff flexibility. Greer to speak with China this week. Market to trade in a holding pattern ahead of April 2 tariff announcement
24th Mar 25, 8:36am
Dovish FOMC reaction fades, DXY probing top of recent range. Trump comments on tariff flexibility. Greer to speak with China this week. Market to trade in a holding pattern ahead of April 2 tariff announcement
US equities slightly higher, US Treasuries in a tight trading range, USD slightly stronger. Nine more sleeps until "Liberation Day", when Trump's reciprocal tariffs take effect; speculation that they will be narrower than previously threatened
24th Mar 25, 7:22am
US equities slightly higher, US Treasuries in a tight trading range, USD slightly stronger. Nine more sleeps until "Liberation Day", when Trump's reciprocal tariffs take effect; speculation that they will be narrower than previously threatened