Currencies
USD/JPY marched up through 160 to a fresh 38-year high, raising the chance of yen intervention. The PBoC continues to allow a softer yuan, while the AUD outperformed after a strong monthly CPI that caught the market off guard
27th Jun 24, 7:45am
USD/JPY marched up through 160 to a fresh 38-year high, raising the chance of yen intervention. The PBoC continues to allow a softer yuan, while the AUD outperformed after a strong monthly CPI that caught the market off guard
Market movements well contained. US equities up modestly, US Treasuries yields up slightly and the USD index is slightly stronger. Canadian inflation positively surprised, but this had more impact on rates than the CAD
26th Jun 24, 7:43am
Market movements well contained. US equities up modestly, US Treasuries yields up slightly and the USD index is slightly stronger. Canadian inflation positively surprised, but this had more impact on rates than the CAD
Latest monthly figures from the Reserve Bank reveal our central bank has seen a decrease in its 'foreign currency intervention capacity' of NZ$732 million last month - the first drop in a year
25th Jun 24, 3:52pm
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Latest monthly figures from the Reserve Bank reveal our central bank has seen a decrease in its 'foreign currency intervention capacity' of NZ$732 million last month - the first drop in a year
The S&P500 is down slightly, US Treasury yields show little net change and the USD is broadly weaker. Oil prices continue to push higher
25th Jun 24, 7:33am
The S&P500 is down slightly, US Treasury yields show little net change and the USD is broadly weaker. Oil prices continue to push higher
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ has refused to orchestrate a higher NZ dollar currency value to force tradable inflation down to offset the non-tradeable inflation it has no control over
24th Jun 24, 8:48am
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Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ has refused to orchestrate a higher NZ dollar currency value to force tradable inflation down to offset the non-tradeable inflation it has no control over
S&P PMIs run hot in US, whilst in eurozone, print softer for a second month. USD ends the week on strong footing - DXY approaching critical resistance. French political risk to remain a factor in lead up to weekend's round 1 election
24th Jun 24, 8:35am
S&P PMIs run hot in US, whilst in eurozone, print softer for a second month. USD ends the week on strong footing - DXY approaching critical resistance. French political risk to remain a factor in lead up to weekend's round 1 election
Softer than expected PMI data across Europe contributed to a fall in German bund yields. In contrast, US PMI data was relatively robust with the composite index remaining near two-year highs. The US dollar was broadly stronger
24th Jun 24, 7:25am
Softer than expected PMI data across Europe contributed to a fall in German bund yields. In contrast, US PMI data was relatively robust with the composite index remaining near two-year highs. The US dollar was broadly stronger
There has been plenty of news to digest but market movements have been well-contained. The BoE opened the door for a first rate cut this cycle in August while the Swiss National Bank cut rates again
21st Jun 24, 7:38am
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There has been plenty of news to digest but market movements have been well-contained. The BoE opened the door for a first rate cut this cycle in August while the Swiss National Bank cut rates again
Markets confined to narrow ranges with the mid-week US public holiday impacting activity. Japan considering issuing bonds with shorter maturities as the Bank of Japan reduces its JGB purchases
20th Jun 24, 7:48am
Markets confined to narrow ranges with the mid-week US public holiday impacting activity. Japan considering issuing bonds with shorter maturities as the Bank of Japan reduces its JGB purchases
A weaker than expected US retail sales report supported US Treasuries, dragging the 10-year rate down to as low as 4.20% and pushed down the USD, reversing earlier strength. The AUD has outperformed after a more hawkish than expected RBA update
19th Jun 24, 7:48am
A weaker than expected US retail sales report supported US Treasuries, dragging the 10-year rate down to as low as 4.20% and pushed down the USD, reversing earlier strength. The AUD has outperformed after a more hawkish than expected RBA update
US equities have continued their record-breaking run while, after last week’s strong rally, US Treasury yields are modestly higher. European markets have settled after last week’s selloff, with French assets recovering
18th Jun 24, 7:33am
US equities have continued their record-breaking run while, after last week’s strong rally, US Treasury yields are modestly higher. European markets have settled after last week’s selloff, with French assets recovering
Roger J Kerr says Fed members with their individual quarterly 'dot-plot' interest rate forecasts have been as unpredictable, fickle, changeable and inconsistent as the interest rate and FX markets, in wildly adjusting their outlook
17th Jun 24, 8:49am
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Roger J Kerr says Fed members with their individual quarterly 'dot-plot' interest rate forecasts have been as unpredictable, fickle, changeable and inconsistent as the interest rate and FX markets, in wildly adjusting their outlook
A risk off tone dominated global markets into the end of last week as concern about the political crisis in France deepened. US consumer confidence weaker than expected. Global bond yields moved lower
17th Jun 24, 7:25am
A risk off tone dominated global markets into the end of last week as concern about the political crisis in France deepened. US consumer confidence weaker than expected. Global bond yields moved lower
Much softer than expected US PPI data and a further increase in jobless claims supported US Treasuries, taking yields down 7-8bps across the curve. Concerns around France remain the focus. Some flight-to-safety evident
14th Jun 24, 7:52am
Much softer than expected US PPI data and a further increase in jobless claims supported US Treasuries, taking yields down 7-8bps across the curve. Concerns around France remain the focus. Some flight-to-safety evident
The US Fed left rates on hold for a seventh straight meeting as was unanimously expected. Officials signaled they expect to cut rates by 25bps this year, down from 75bps at the March FOMC. US CPI data for May was softer than expected
13th Jun 24, 7:47am
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The US Fed left rates on hold for a seventh straight meeting as was unanimously expected. Officials signaled they expect to cut rates by 25bps this year, down from 75bps at the March FOMC. US CPI data for May was softer than expected
US dollar continues to cede ground in global foreign exchange reserves, but it remains the preeminent reserve currency
12th Jun 24, 9:51am
US dollar continues to cede ground in global foreign exchange reserves, but it remains the preeminent reserve currency
There has been more fallout from French President Macron’s decision to call early parliamentary elections, with a flight to quality within European assets. US rates have pushed lower ahead of the key US CPI report
12th Jun 24, 7:56am
There has been more fallout from French President Macron’s decision to call early parliamentary elections, with a flight to quality within European assets. US rates have pushed lower ahead of the key US CPI report
The outcome of European Parliament elections has been the key driver of markets. Elsewhere, markets holding until US CPI data and the Fed’s policy updates later in the week
11th Jun 24, 7:44am
The outcome of European Parliament elections has been the key driver of markets. Elsewhere, markets holding until US CPI data and the Fed’s policy updates later in the week
Roger J Kerr says to understand and interpret FX markets you must consistently monitor the sentiment, views and reasons as to why the traders, speculators and investors are increasing or decreasing their currency positions
10th Jun 24, 8:52am
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Roger J Kerr says to understand and interpret FX markets you must consistently monitor the sentiment, views and reasons as to why the traders, speculators and investors are increasing or decreasing their currency positions
Non-farm payrolls blowout! 272K new jobs (vs 185K) created, average hourly earnings hotter. US treasury yields and dollar rip higher as less than 2 x 25bps hikes priced in. A mammoth week ahead: double header, US CPI and FOMC meeting
10th Jun 24, 8:45am
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Non-farm payrolls blowout! 272K new jobs (vs 185K) created, average hourly earnings hotter. US treasury yields and dollar rip higher as less than 2 x 25bps hikes priced in. A mammoth week ahead: double header, US CPI and FOMC meeting
An upside surprise to US nonfarm payrolls and strong wage growth pushed global bond yields sharply higher. The USD made broad gains. Markets trimmed expectations for Fed easing, pushing back a cut to December
10th Jun 24, 7:22am
An upside surprise to US nonfarm payrolls and strong wage growth pushed global bond yields sharply higher. The USD made broad gains. Markets trimmed expectations for Fed easing, pushing back a cut to December
Net market movements have been mostly small, with signs of consolidation across equities, bonds and currencies. European rates are slightly higher after the ECB’s “hawkish cut” and US Treasury yields are little changed
7th Jun 24, 7:47am
Net market movements have been mostly small, with signs of consolidation across equities, bonds and currencies. European rates are slightly higher after the ECB’s “hawkish cut” and US Treasury yields are little changed
Buoyant investor risk sentiment underpinned global equities with the S&P up nearly 1% and retesting its record high. US service ISM rebounds strongly from contractionary levels in April. The Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps
6th Jun 24, 7:59am
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Buoyant investor risk sentiment underpinned global equities with the S&P up nearly 1% and retesting its record high. US service ISM rebounds strongly from contractionary levels in April. The Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps
Risk assets beaten down through Asia and Europe sessions, pare losses in US. JOLTS Job Openings fall to 3-yr low; more evidence US jobs market is cooling. US rates extend slide on weak data
5th Jun 24, 7:43am
Risk assets beaten down through Asia and Europe sessions, pare losses in US. JOLTS Job Openings fall to 3-yr low; more evidence US jobs market is cooling. US rates extend slide on weak data
US Treasury yields fell for a fourth successive day, seeing the 10-year rate down towards 4.3%, supported by safe-haven flows after some surprising emerging market election results, lower oil prices, and softer US labour market data
5th Jun 24, 7:36am
US Treasury yields fell for a fourth successive day, seeing the 10-year rate down towards 4.3%, supported by safe-haven flows after some surprising emerging market election results, lower oil prices, and softer US labour market data
