Currencies
US retail sales stronger: growth in control group climbs most since April 2023. Dollar (DXY) stabilises above critical support, yet yields continue to soften. Focus will be on domestic (non-tradables) inflation, RBNZ's projection of 5.3%
17th Jul 24, 8:00am
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US retail sales stronger: growth in control group climbs most since April 2023. Dollar (DXY) stabilises above critical support, yet yields continue to soften. Focus will be on domestic (non-tradables) inflation, RBNZ's projection of 5.3%
The US Treasury yield curve flattened and currency markets are little changed. Gold hit a record high of US$2465 an ounce. US equities advanced following unexpectedly strong retail sales data
17th Jul 24, 7:51am
The US Treasury yield curve flattened and currency markets are little changed. Gold hit a record high of US$2465 an ounce. US equities advanced following unexpectedly strong retail sales data
Powell looks to rate cuts, but without saying when. The US treasury curve has continued to steepen. 30-year yields are above 2-year yields for the first time since November. China’s Q2 GDP data was weaker than expected
16th Jul 24, 8:07am
Powell looks to rate cuts, but without saying when. The US treasury curve has continued to steepen. 30-year yields are above 2-year yields for the first time since November. China’s Q2 GDP data was weaker than expected
Roger J Kerr says the monetary policy path ahead is looking considerably more certain in the US than it is here
15th Jul 24, 7:39am
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Roger J Kerr says the monetary policy path ahead is looking considerably more certain in the US than it is here
Markets looked past strong US PPI data. UST 10-yr yields dipped below 4.2% a level which has contained the downside in recent months. The yield curve continued to steepen. The US dollar remained under pressure particularly against the yen
15th Jul 24, 7:31am
Markets looked past strong US PPI data. UST 10-yr yields dipped below 4.2% a level which has contained the downside in recent months. The yield curve continued to steepen. The US dollar remained under pressure particularly against the yen
Another benign US CPI result drove a sharp rally in US Treasury yields. USD weakness wasn’t sustained however, except for a plunge in USD/JPY with official intervention suspected
12th Jul 24, 7:53am
Another benign US CPI result drove a sharp rally in US Treasury yields. USD weakness wasn’t sustained however, except for a plunge in USD/JPY with official intervention suspected
Global equity markets made solid gains with the S&P trading above 5,600. Markets were largely subdued lacking catalysts. Investors are looking ahead to key US CPI data this evening
11th Jul 24, 7:43am
Global equity markets made solid gains with the S&P trading above 5,600. Markets were largely subdued lacking catalysts. Investors are looking ahead to key US CPI data this evening
Powell’s testimony largely repeated previous messages, didn’t move the needle in financial markets. There has been more action in Europe, with the Euro Stoxx 600 index down 0.9%, led by France, and French-German bond spreads widened
10th Jul 24, 7:49am
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Powell’s testimony largely repeated previous messages, didn’t move the needle in financial markets. There has been more action in Europe, with the Euro Stoxx 600 index down 0.9%, led by France, and French-German bond spreads widened
French election impasse: euro gaps lower before recovering; who will govern? US dollar's slide halted as market awaits key event risk, headlined by June US CPI
9th Jul 24, 7:45am
French election impasse: euro gaps lower before recovering; who will govern? US dollar's slide halted as market awaits key event risk, headlined by June US CPI
Market movements well-contained, with little impact from the shock French election result. Key equity markets show small changes, the US 10-year rate is down slightly, the NZD has underperformed and is modestly weaker
9th Jul 24, 7:39am
Market movements well-contained, with little impact from the shock French election result. Key equity markets show small changes, the US 10-year rate is down slightly, the NZD has underperformed and is modestly weaker
Roger J Kerr says historical adjustments to US jobs data are so large it makes a complete mockery of the efficacy and accuracy of the payrolls data as a reliable measure of employment trends in the US economy
8th Jul 24, 9:00am
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Roger J Kerr says historical adjustments to US jobs data are so large it makes a complete mockery of the efficacy and accuracy of the payrolls data as a reliable measure of employment trends in the US economy
Weaker than expected US labour market data saw investors bring forward expectations for rate cuts by the US Fed. Early projections suggest the left wing coalition has unexpectedly won the French election raising concerns about the fiscal backdrop
8th Jul 24, 7:26am
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Weaker than expected US labour market data saw investors bring forward expectations for rate cuts by the US Fed. Early projections suggest the left wing coalition has unexpectedly won the French election raising concerns about the fiscal backdrop
US dollar continues to trade soft in wake of large ISM Services miss. ECB minutes and officials' speeches at Sintra conference preach patience
5th Jul 24, 7:46am
US dollar continues to trade soft in wake of large ISM Services miss. ECB minutes and officials' speeches at Sintra conference preach patience
Global markets subdued in shadow of US holiday. Polling that projects Marine Le Pen’s failure supported sentiment towards European assets. Market focus turns to upcoming key US labour market data
5th Jul 24, 7:37am
Global markets subdued in shadow of US holiday. Polling that projects Marine Le Pen’s failure supported sentiment towards European assets. Market focus turns to upcoming key US labour market data
A series of weaker than expected economic prints, headlined by services ISM which slumped to a 4-year low, strengthened the case for Fed rate cuts this year. US treasury yields fell and the S&P closed at a fresh record high
4th Jul 24, 7:44am
A series of weaker than expected economic prints, headlined by services ISM which slumped to a 4-year low, strengthened the case for Fed rate cuts this year. US treasury yields fell and the S&P closed at a fresh record high
Fed Chair Powell sees recent fall in the PCE ‘really good progress’ but still needs to see more progress. US job openings unexpectedly rise. European CPI slowed
3rd Jul 24, 7:39am
Fed Chair Powell sees recent fall in the PCE ‘really good progress’ but still needs to see more progress. US job openings unexpectedly rise. European CPI slowed
US dollar generally firmer amid higher UST yields. China 10-year bond yields fell to a record low. Risk premia on European assets have reduced on lower chance of far-right victory in France
2nd Jul 24, 7:41am
US dollar generally firmer amid higher UST yields. China 10-year bond yields fell to a record low. Risk premia on European assets have reduced on lower chance of far-right victory in France
Roger J Kerr says fears of US inflation increasing again are misplaced
French legislative election: Le Pen's RN claims first round victory. French-German yield spreads to widen; euro under pressure to start week. US equities down, yields up, crude oil down, gold flat, USD mixed
1st Jul 24, 8:26am
French legislative election: Le Pen's RN claims first round victory. French-German yield spreads to widen; euro under pressure to start week. US equities down, yields up, crude oil down, gold flat, USD mixed
Investors cautious ahead of France’s elections. The spread between French and German 10-year bonds widened to the highest level since 2012. The US Fed's preferred gauge of inflation decelerated in May. UST yields ended higher
1st Jul 24, 7:22am
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Investors cautious ahead of France’s elections. The spread between French and German 10-year bonds widened to the highest level since 2012. The US Fed's preferred gauge of inflation decelerated in May. UST yields ended higher
USD/JPY marched up through 160 to a fresh 38-year high, raising the chance of yen intervention. The PBoC continues to allow a softer yuan, while the AUD outperformed after a strong monthly CPI that caught the market off guard
27th Jun 24, 7:45am
USD/JPY marched up through 160 to a fresh 38-year high, raising the chance of yen intervention. The PBoC continues to allow a softer yuan, while the AUD outperformed after a strong monthly CPI that caught the market off guard
Market movements well contained. US equities up modestly, US Treasuries yields up slightly and the USD index is slightly stronger. Canadian inflation positively surprised, but this had more impact on rates than the CAD
26th Jun 24, 7:43am
Market movements well contained. US equities up modestly, US Treasuries yields up slightly and the USD index is slightly stronger. Canadian inflation positively surprised, but this had more impact on rates than the CAD
Latest monthly figures from the Reserve Bank reveal our central bank has seen a decrease in its 'foreign currency intervention capacity' of NZ$732 million last month - the first drop in a year
25th Jun 24, 3:52pm
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Latest monthly figures from the Reserve Bank reveal our central bank has seen a decrease in its 'foreign currency intervention capacity' of NZ$732 million last month - the first drop in a year
The S&P500 is down slightly, US Treasury yields show little net change and the USD is broadly weaker. Oil prices continue to push higher
25th Jun 24, 7:33am
The S&P500 is down slightly, US Treasury yields show little net change and the USD is broadly weaker. Oil prices continue to push higher
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ has refused to orchestrate a higher NZ dollar currency value to force tradable inflation down to offset the non-tradeable inflation it has no control over
24th Jun 24, 8:48am
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Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ has refused to orchestrate a higher NZ dollar currency value to force tradable inflation down to offset the non-tradeable inflation it has no control over
