We’re still adding jobs. Statistics NZ’s latest employment indicator data for March shows more than 9000 jobs were added in the month compared with February.
The figures have been seasonally-adjusted.
The largest improvement in filled jobs was seen in goods-producing industries, with more than 3,300 filled jobs in March compared to February, an increase of 0.7%.
Looking year-on-year, there was strength in the Covid-constricted accommodation and food services sector, with 12.9% more jobs in March 2023 when compared to March 2022. That accounted for more than 13,000 jobs.
Filled jobs in transport, postal, and warehousing also saw a decent rise of 7% year-on-year, or more than 6200 jobs.
The service industries added more than 6000 jobs, while primary industries added 196 jobs compared with February.
Statistics NZ’s February employment indicators showed seasonally-adjusted filled jobs rose 0.4%, or by about 8400 jobs compared with January. In the first month of the year, filled jobs rose 0.8% after hitting negative territory in December.
Westpac economist Michael Gordon said jobs growth seemed to have picked up pace, and there were more people available to hire due to a resurgence in migration.
Migrant arrivals for the year ended February 2023 rose 195% compared with the year ended February 2022, Stats NZ data showed. In February 2023 more than 21,000 migrants arrived in the country, a 641% increase on the same month in 2022.
Gordon said jobs growth had been pretty steady at about 2% annually in 2022. He said it had now kicked up to 3.6% year-on-year.
"That aspect is reflecting the growth in the workforce, and no softening in momentum."
Those looking for signs New Zealand had entered a recession wouldn't find confirmation in the data, which Gordon rates highly because it's drawn from tax returns and not a survey which he said made it "comprehensive". He said the employment indicator should give us a "fairly clean read on the direction of the economy".
"While there are more people around to hire, the overarching issue is that businesses are still hiring, that's not really a sign that the economy is already in recession," Gordon said.
New Zealand's latest Gross Domestic Product was weaker than expected, with a 0.6% contraction for the three months ended December 2022. New Zealand’s unemployment rate came in at 3.4% in the December quarter of 2022.
But the Reserve Bank has been on the warpath to attack inflation, and is expected to raise rates again at least once this year, bringing the Official Cash Rate to 5.5%.
Gordon said the Reserve Bank would need to see signs in the numbers soon that it had done enough to get on top of inflation.
"Today's numbers are not challenging the Reserve Bank's view [of another OCR increase]."
Gordon said where NZ saw a lot of jobs growth among teenagers in 2022, so far this year the growth in jobs had been more balanced across age groups.
Among those aged 65 and up, filled jobs rose 8.5% adding more than 9,764 jobs in March 2023 compared to March 2022. Young workers filled roles increased by 12.7%, meaning more than 16,000 jobs.
The next major labour market release will land on May 3.
ASB economists expect unemployment will come in at 3.5% for the first quarter of 2023. It was 3.4% in the December 2022 quarter, according to Stats NZ.
ASB said it expected the first quarter data would show slightly more hiring despite sharply lower base economic momentum, and slightly more spare capacity within the broader labour market.
"The demand for labour is expected to cool over 2023 as the economy slows. Firms are wary about the economic outlook and look to be re-evaluating their employment plans. Employment intentions from recent ANZ business outlook surveys have remained well into negative territory," ASB said.
ASB also saw a boost coming from immigration. It said net immigration flows, whilst highly volatile, were on a strengthening trajectory.
It said NZ should remain an attractive destination to live and work, although the economic slowdown could see some of this appeal wane.
Kiwibank is picking unemployment will remain steady at 3.4%, and said the "Kiwi labour market remains tight as a drum".
Alexia Osborne, Recruitment Operations Manager at Fonterra, said a competitive job market continued to be a key consideration for its recruitment team.
"We recognise that quality candidates will likely have multiple options open to them in the current job market, and we see this through an increase in counter offers from current employers, as well as a significant volume of concurrent offers from other employers, which can often extend the time it takes to fill our roles."
36 Comments
Ya reckon? It has been said here before that the people feeling the pinch are already pinched and likely not adding to much of the spending going on. Meanwhile those who have made fortunes over the past 5 years (i.e. anyone that has sold a house) is unmortgaged, cashed up, and spending up a storm which zero concerns around interest rates or likely even the state of the economy as a whole. That's what happens when you give out $60 BILLION and it is funneled to people who are already wealthy.
$20 is too much for a lunch.
I bought a sandwich from a trendy central Auckland cafe (that doesn't display prices on their cabinet food) the other day, and it was so incredibly disappointing a sandwich for $14 that I'll not be going back. It's the risk, charging premium prices while engaging in shrinkflation.
I commented a few weeks ago on my rare experience of an evening meal in Wgtn & the apparent inconsequential concerns of the 20ish female demographic.
A friend of mine who owns a food truck told me recently he's done $250k turnover over the last year - asian focus but biggest seller a potato turned into a fried corkscrew for $9ea.
I agree, but that is a recent phenomenon.
From GFC to Covid, there was disproportionate young adult unemployment: it was hard to get a job, most graduates were undercut by imports, and many spent years trying to find a job before they found one that was a) not in their field, and b) paid absolute crap. Graduate teachers in particular were short-changed - I remember Auckland uni alone training twice as many teachers as there were positions available [though that was a demographic problem as many older teachers chose not to retire due to mortgage pressure around the GFC].
I watched young friend after young friend despair of finding a job here after their graduation - and I'm talking exemplary students too. Half are now overseas, and better off for it.
There was a real shift when the borders were closed - it took about a year, but I know a lot of late 20s finally employed in the field of their choice, as without the availability of immigrants, companies actually started hiring young kiwis.
Yeah I guess we have a problem with the qualifications we are offering vs the demands of the market.
I dont think that's really changed much though, there's loads of jobs, just not everyone wants to do them. So as you say, they either leave, or can't find work. Well, they could do something they didn't want to, I guess.
No, I'm with you Jimbo. Plenty are, but this website seems to attract the overly gloomy. I've learned over the years that getting too bearish is about as unwise as being too bullish. I've also learned that sentiment extremes generally elicit opportunity for those brave enough.
For TOP, certainly. For National - sorry no, the latest changes allowing landlords to boot people out for no reason is disgraceful. I do not rent but believe a tenant should have security of tenure. The stress put on families being shunted out, away form schools, work etc for no reason is not on.
Nat making it harder for me to come back to - yet again.
Out of touch - apart from drinkies at the yacht club and field days.
Jimbo- no rational investor would kick out a good tenant. The challenge is how to get rid of the bad ones. There was an article this week in the herald showing what happened when a landlord evicted tenants who hadn’t paid rent in over two months.
They smashed every window and internal wall, destroyed the toilet, ripped every door off the hinges etc. Damage would easily have been $100K.
Should be covered by the landlord's insurance, with the premium payment included in the rent. Let the insurance company chase the tenant. Methinks that house might not've had adequate insurance.
Seen plenty of landlords in areas with real pressure kick tenants out to elicit a greater rent increase than otherwise legally allowed.
Definitely not covered by landlords insurance...no one is insured for intentional damage by tenants or in this case family and friends that returned and trashed the place after the tenants were evicted for big rent areas. Same situation as wrecking your own place and trying to claim on insurance
Adding low wage jobs
Productivity Commission has been reporting on this issue for the better part of a decade. Successive governments and vested interests have shifted us away from an export-oriented economy to domestic consumption-led. We can't get rich by selling stuff to one another, least of all when it's houses that we're selling.
Our total exports to GDP stood at 26% in 2019, lower than the OECD average of 28%. Compared to smaller OECD economies (>10m population) such as ours, we're miles behind even the next one up (Finland at ~43%).
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