Currencies
The uptrend in the US dollar has extended supported by a sharp move higher in US treasury yields. Chinese stocks and the yuan remained under pressure amid concerns over the size of its fiscal stimulus
13th Nov 24, 7:45am
The uptrend in the US dollar has extended supported by a sharp move higher in US treasury yields. Chinese stocks and the yuan remained under pressure amid concerns over the size of its fiscal stimulus
US equities remained well supported. The Russell 2000 index of small-cap firms hit the highest level since 2021. The US dollar extended its uptrend. UST futures pricing implies modestly higher yields
12th Nov 24, 7:39am
US equities remained well supported. The Russell 2000 index of small-cap firms hit the highest level since 2021. The US dollar extended its uptrend. UST futures pricing implies modestly higher yields
Roger J Kerr examines some of the questions posed in the aftermath of the US election
11th Nov 24, 8:22am
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Roger J Kerr examines some of the questions posed in the aftermath of the US election
US equity markets at new record highs as markets pared Fed rate cut expectations. The USD is broadly stronger. The NZD and AUD underperform as China’s policy package avoids stimulating consumer spending
11th Nov 24, 7:21am
US equity markets at new record highs as markets pared Fed rate cut expectations. The USD is broadly stronger. The NZD and AUD underperform as China’s policy package avoids stimulating consumer spending
Ahead of the Fed there has been some reversal of the Trump trade in currency and bond markets, while US equities have continued to power ahead. Another cut by the Fed is certain, key will be the tone of the press conference
8th Nov 24, 7:53am
Ahead of the Fed there has been some reversal of the Trump trade in currency and bond markets, while US equities have continued to power ahead. Another cut by the Fed is certain, key will be the tone of the press conference
In the wake of a decisive victory for Trump and the Republican party at the US elections, market movements have been significant. USD rises, UST rates jump
7th Nov 24, 7:46am
In the wake of a decisive victory for Trump and the Republican party at the US elections, market movements have been significant. USD rises, UST rates jump
Despite the uncertain US election outcome, market pricing consistent with “risk-on”, with stronger US equities, higher rates and a broadly weaker USD. RBA gives a reality check that inflation still too high to warrant easing
6th Nov 24, 7:42am
Despite the uncertain US election outcome, market pricing consistent with “risk-on”, with stronger US equities, higher rates and a broadly weaker USD. RBA gives a reality check that inflation still too high to warrant easing
Trump trade reverses. The USD is broadly lower and US rates are lower across the curve led by the long end. Oil prices are up nearly 3% on OPEC+’s delay to increase supply and hawkish Iran talk
5th Nov 24, 7:45am
Trump trade reverses. The USD is broadly lower and US rates are lower across the curve led by the long end. Oil prices are up nearly 3% on OPEC+’s delay to increase supply and hawkish Iran talk
Roger J Kerr examines the scenarios for the forthcoming election and the potential impact on the US and Kiwi dollars
4th Nov 24, 8:16am
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Roger J Kerr examines the scenarios for the forthcoming election and the potential impact on the US and Kiwi dollars
US jobs report burt by hurricanes & strikes, just 12,000 jobs added. UST yields & dollar initially drop before reversing to log bullish close. A momentous week ahead; US election and FOMC to deliver volatility step-up
4th Nov 24, 7:34am
US jobs report burt by hurricanes & strikes, just 12,000 jobs added. UST yields & dollar initially drop before reversing to log bullish close. A momentous week ahead; US election and FOMC to deliver volatility step-up
Weaker US labour market data whipsaws global rates and currency markets with recent weather events a contributing factor. The US dollar and treasury yields fell sharply - before reversing higher
4th Nov 24, 7:22am
Weaker US labour market data whipsaws global rates and currency markets with recent weather events a contributing factor. The US dollar and treasury yields fell sharply - before reversing higher
US equities end month on a weak note, on weaker forward guidance. The reaction to the UK Budget continues to reverberate, with higher UK rates, weaker GBP. The BoJ left the door open for a possible December rate hike
1st Nov 24, 7:50am
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US equities end month on a weak note, on weaker forward guidance. The reaction to the UK Budget continues to reverberate, with higher UK rates, weaker GBP. The BoJ left the door open for a possible December rate hike
The US economy expanded underpinned by strong consumer spending. UK gilts were volatile as UK chancellor delivered her debut budget and the market digested plans to ramp up borrowing
31st Oct 24, 7:51am
The US economy expanded underpinned by strong consumer spending. UK gilts were volatile as UK chancellor delivered her debut budget and the market digested plans to ramp up borrowing
Global asset markets little changed. US job openings, a proxy for labour demand, fell to the lowest level since February 2021. Oil prices stabilise as geopolitical risk premium eased
30th Oct 24, 7:35am
Global asset markets little changed. US job openings, a proxy for labour demand, fell to the lowest level since February 2021. Oil prices stabilise as geopolitical risk premium eased
Oil prices slide 5% as geopolitical risk premium fades. JPY weaker following Japan’s Lower House election. The Trump trade extends, with higher US Treasury yields, higher US equities and a broadly stronger USD
29th Oct 24, 7:21am
Oil prices slide 5% as geopolitical risk premium fades. JPY weaker following Japan’s Lower House election. The Trump trade extends, with higher US Treasury yields, higher US equities and a broadly stronger USD
Roger J Kerr looks at what betting markets are indicating and what traders are thinking. Self-interested bias with OPM? Meanwhile, Japanese political turmoil confuses the interest rate and Yen currency outlook
28th Oct 24, 9:10am
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Roger J Kerr looks at what betting markets are indicating and what traders are thinking. Self-interested bias with OPM? Meanwhile, Japanese political turmoil confuses the interest rate and Yen currency outlook
Market movements modest, with US equities currently showing a small gain, while global rates are lower after their recent rise. Global PMI data were in line with expectations, with small changes in October
25th Oct 24, 7:57am
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Market movements modest, with US equities currently showing a small gain, while global rates are lower after their recent rise. Global PMI data were in line with expectations, with small changes in October
Softer tone for global equities continues. The US dollar index reached the highest level since July. Gold prices pulled back from a record high
24th Oct 24, 7:49am
Softer tone for global equities continues. The US dollar index reached the highest level since July. Gold prices pulled back from a record high
There was no respite for global bond markets with yields moving higher in an extension of the large moves from the previous day. Asset markets are little changed in the absence of first-tier economic data
23rd Oct 24, 7:39am
There was no respite for global bond markets with yields moving higher in an extension of the large moves from the previous day. Asset markets are little changed in the absence of first-tier economic data
US 10yr note yield at highest level since July. USD stronger across the board. Geopolitics and US election race to influence this week's directional moves
22nd Oct 24, 7:56am
US 10yr note yield at highest level since July. USD stronger across the board. Geopolitics and US election race to influence this week's directional moves
Global rates are broadly higher without a satisfactory explanation. US Treasury yields are up 7-9bps across the curve with some even larger moves in many European countries. Higher rates have driven weaker equity markets
22nd Oct 24, 7:26am
Global rates are broadly higher without a satisfactory explanation. US Treasury yields are up 7-9bps across the curve with some even larger moves in many European countries. Higher rates have driven weaker equity markets
Roger J Kerr looks at the scenarios and potential outcome of the US election
China activity data showed a lift in momentum. Japan CPI inflation now above target for a full 2½ years. US equities extending their record-breaking run
21st Oct 24, 7:20am
China activity data showed a lift in momentum. Japan CPI inflation now above target for a full 2½ years. US equities extending their record-breaking run
Stronger than expected US retail sales data saw the market pare the scope for easier Fed policy and drove higher US Treasury yields. The AUD was supported after a strong labour market report
18th Oct 24, 7:41am
Stronger than expected US retail sales data saw the market pare the scope for easier Fed policy and drove higher US Treasury yields. The AUD was supported after a strong labour market report
US equities modestly higher after yesterday's dip. Soft NZ and UK CPI data drive the market to bring forward projected rate cuts for the RBNZ and BoE. Broad USD strength as the Trump trade continues
17th Oct 24, 7:43am
US equities modestly higher after yesterday's dip. Soft NZ and UK CPI data drive the market to bring forward projected rate cuts for the RBNZ and BoE. Broad USD strength as the Trump trade continues
