Anita Wreford, Lincoln University, New Zealand
Hawke’s Bay, one of New Zealand’s most productive regions and the hub of the fruit-growing sector, is among the areas worst hit by Cyclone Gabrielle and ongoing rain.
Horticulture underpins the local economy, with apple earnings alone contributing around NZ$700m annually. The immediate destruction of crops from the heavy wind and rain is obvious. But the full extent of the long-term damage to trees and vines themselves is yet to fully assessed.
Ruined orchard, damaged winery - Esk Valley copes with daunting job cleaning up https://t.co/Zot7OXN93t
— RNZ News (@rnz_news) February 26, 2023
With metres of silt covering the land, smothering crops and potentially suffocating the root systems of fruit trees, it’s clear the impacts will be severe.
Horticulture will take longer to recover than pasture, which can be grown back on the affected land. Fruit trees have deep roots and require a functioning soil structure, which may have been destroyed by the silt. Recent media coverage suggests the industry could take 50 to 100 years to fully recover, but during that time, we know there will be more extreme weather events.
The region has already been dealing with variable weather, including a severe frost in October that caused considerable damage to kiwifruit crops.
In the immediate weeks after the cyclone, growers will be busy removing silt from the base of trees to avoid the roots suffocating from a lack of oxygen. Prospects of harvesting for those hit hard are likely to be low – even without the destruction of crops, getting machinery into the orchards will be difficult.
Beyond the immediate clean-up, some fruit growers may need to consider whether this is a “window” for changing the type of crop or system.
Adaptation to a changing climate
Recovery will range from clearing the damage and possibly salvaging trees and vines to complete loss of orchards. The cost of replanting is eye-watering, and likely to be prohibitive for many. One Hawke’s Bay farmer estimated it will take three years to replant an 11-hectare apple orchard, at a cost of $180,000 to $250,000 per hectare.
Given the significant investment and the long life of fruit trees, there is a more strategic question to be asked about replanting the same crops in the same areas.
Cyclone Gabrielle: Hawke's Bay orchardists struggle to clear silt as rain hampers clean-up effort https://t.co/0nFojiweiO
— RNZ News (@rnz_news) February 25, 2023
Hawke’s Bay has long been treasured for its highly valuable and diverse soils, resulting in the abundance of fruit grown in the region. But a changing climate may mean some of these areas will become less suitable over the coming decades.
Researchers are developing a growing understanding of the changing suitability for a range of crops during the remainder of the century. Assessments of suitability are based on projections of climate variables such as temperature, precipitation and frost days. All these represent gradual changes in growing conditions.
We are already observing fewer frost days, which is making the region less suitable for certain kiwifruit varieties. This is likely to be even more pronounced in the future. For apples, decreased chill is likely to be the biggest driver of change.
More intense weather will be part of the future
These projections do not, however, include extreme weather events such as Cyclone Gabrielle. In a changing climate, we know extremes will occur more often and may be more intense.
Although climate change doesn’t generate more cyclones, it can make them more intense. Even without these extreme events, rainfall is likely be become more variable and periods of heavy rainfall may increase.
Growers looking to get back on their feet after this highly disruptive event would benefit from understanding what the future is likely to hold for their region.
Industry bodies have a role here to support their growers’ knowledge and awareness of options and processes for adaptation. The horticulture sector has developed an action plan that recognises the need to develop new techniques and consider new growing regions, underpinned by scientific evidence.
Opportunity to do things differently
We’ll need to tackle adaption to climate change at all levels to ensure horticulture can continue to thrive in Hawke’s Bay. Growers may reconsider the types of crops planted, where they are grown or the way they are grown.
Some growers are already developing covered systems to provide protection from some elements (but which may not withstand events such as Gabrielle).
We must also consider the role of stop banks. They allow the development of land in potentially flood-prone areas, which may lead to a false sense of security and greater damage if they are inadequate for projected water volumes.
There is increasing interest in returning riparian areas to their natural state to buffer against flooding, while also generating ecological benefits. But when the land protected by stop banks is as valuable as it is in Hawke’s Bay, this will be a challenging conversation.
With the increasingly disruptive weather Aotearoa New Zealand is already facing, and the changes expected over the next decades, it is crucial the decisions we make today do not make us more vulnerable in the future.
*Anita Wreford, Professor Applied Economics, Lincoln University, New Zealand. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
75 Comments
There is increasing interest in returning riparian areas to their natural state to buffer against flooding, while also generating ecological benefits. But when the land protected by stop banks is as valuable as it is in Hawke’s Bay, this will be a challenging conversation.
But now that climate change has demonstrated its power, that flooded land along Pakawai Rd etc, is clearly not as valuable as it was a few weeks ago. I am not sure how people are to be compensated. My cousin and partner only had time to get out with their dogs, they have lost everything. They where insured and a LSB so not an orchard.
I think maybe a second stop bank system to cope with these events? Replanting in central hawkes bay? but now the impacted have nothing and alternate land will be worth MORE.
This is a messy situation thats going to play out across NZ, cliff top homes, more stockbanks in other areas etc etc, I am not sure NZ has the money to socialise all the costs, its a mess. Meanwhile china adds another 100gwatts of coal power stations .
Only the wealthy have the required... wealth. you cannot get blood out of a stone or a benificery.
By way of contrast, if you believe fairness results from ability to pay, then Cameron Bagrie's suggestion of a wealth tax is relevant.
Data from Stats NZ shows that household wealth inequality in New Zealand is significantly greater than income inequality. The richest 20 percent of households own around 184 times the median household wealth of the lowest 20 percent: NZ$2,024,000 vs NZ$11,000. The median net worth is $397,000.
As the top 10 percent of New Zealand households hold around 50 percent of New Zealand's total household net worth, there is a strong argument that taxing some of this wealth is fair.
I never said we should tax wealth "because there's a weather event".
We should tax wealth because that's the only way the NZ government is going to be able to afford the costs of infrastructure upgrades to ensure future weather disasters are less severe.
Also when wealth is taxed, we can lower income taxes, to ensure that kiwis won't have a reason move overseas.
Who will pay for the required services rebuild, roading, health, power, oh yes and a few waters.
- we could borrow it all, but at a cost to the NZD and inflation etc...
- we could do nothing and become South Africa.
NZers seem to want to pay nothing more but get swiss level services.....
I dont mind paying more tax, but I do not think we need to spend 25 odd billion on ligfht rail to the airport. Try an NX1 buss to see the value of buses. Hair brained media mergers,.
What i expect will happen is very little will change, vested interests will remain, and we will swing from National to Labour for the next few terms as never have the fiscal ability to acheive much
Don't tax farms, obviously.
See TOP's land tax policy: https://www.top.org.nz/higher-incomes-policy
1. This isn't Labour party policy so not sure what Labour have got to do with anything
2. It's more fair than the current situation, where people can sell property and reap huge untaxed gains on it, whereas someone working has to pay PAYE tax on everything they earn. One element of the TOP tax package is a 0% tax threshold up to $15,000 per year, again it's more fair for tax cuts to go to everyone who works and earns money, rather than National's tax cuts that go to top earners and landlords.
... over the long course of history land ought to be fairly stable in price ... and rise steadily in lockstep with inflation ... or in relation to substantial neighbourly infrastructure improvements ( Transmission Gully raised the capital value of the privately owned land bordering it by $ 8 billion ... all free money to the owners ! ) ... as land prices gradually fluctuate , so will the revenues flowing into the government's back pocket ...
Rates are not a land tax : they're a cost to the owner of services rendered by the local council ...
A land tax is an effective way for a central government to tap into the value of all land across the nation , annually ... to offset against company & income tax ...
Unlike your rates bill , LVT doesn't punish you for making improvements atop the land ...
... LVT is levied on the land value only ... therefore , owners are incentivised to improve the land , to gain an income from it ... and disincentivised to hoard it as a "land bank" ...
Exactly. If you've ever actually seen a rates bill though, it's a series of charges that make up a full amount. Stuff like water, wastewater, rubbish collection, parks, roading etc. All that needs to happen is:
Insert line -> LVT -> Set Factor -> Value of Factor -> Rate/Charge.
Done, now you have an LVT.
You don't want to be rich? That's a new one, I've never met anyone who didn't want to be independently wealthy, and according to you it's just soooo easy. What you really mean is you're risk-averse, borrowing large sums of money and taking a chance just isn't for you.
It seems the weather patterns are making us more vulnerable to tropical lows / cyclones. This can occur without massive averages in temp changing. Aussie has flooded a lot recently as well...
Rather then a 1:20 or 1:30 year thing being hit may become a 3 in 10 year stat, with nothing stopping a much worse run short term.
It could be worse this is Fijian normality
Tropical Cyclone OutlookKey Messages
- In total, five to seven named tropical cyclones (TCs) are expected between November 2022 to April 2023. On average, around seven TCs affect the RSMC Nadi-TCC AoR per season. Thus, this season is predicted to have a average or below average number of TCs.
- On average, around four TCs affect west of Dateline and around three affect east of Dateline per season. Tropical cyclone numbers to the west of Dateline in the RSMC-Nadi TCC AoR is likely to be three to six or average to above average TC activities, while numbers to the east is likely to be two to four TCs or average this season.
- For severe TCs (Category 3 or above), average or below average severe TCs are anticipated this season, with one to four severe TCs expected. On average, around three severe TCs affect the RSMC Nadi-TCC AoR per season.
- This seasons TC outlook is greatly driven by the return of a third consecutive La Nina event, which is quiet exceptional and the event is likely to persist until end of the 2022.
Wingman there are multiple scientific articles you could read to compare and contrast with your personal experience. Much of the science is really difficult to interpret though. There won’t be many that compare Wearing a jersey vs turning on the aircon. Maybe you could dill this knowledge gap.
You have to remember that kiwis are a gullible lot, they'll believe anything and riot at the drop of a hat. Many years ago there was a navigation system called Omega, and the plan was to have one of the transmitters in NZ. NZer's rioted down Queen Street because it would make NZ a target in the event of a nuclear war, so the transmitter was located elsewhere. Now they all have GPS in their cars but I don't see any rioting. Kiwis love getting their teeth into a good cause, even if it's wrong.
I'm extremely sceptical of scientists and 'experts'. Remember all the predictions that the world would run out of oil by the year 2,000? I do. In the USA gullible dupes rioted over it in the 1980's and vandalised gas guzzling cars. I tell ya, there's one born every minute.
The west coined climate change to sabotage the industrialize of the developing world.
China uses climate change to develop alternative energy sources to not rely it's energy security on others.
NZ uses climate change as a way of promoting labour politicians to the UN at costs of all NZers.
... wow-weeee , fellow interest.coasters .... check it out , I was trolling for a xingmowang with a light 20 kg line & a running sinker rig , but a 125 kg lesser spotted bearded shortfinned PDK came out from nowhere , took the bait & is off & running ! .. you gotta hang on tight , these buggers put up a good fight .... sheeeeee-yitttttttttttt ... lookit that sucka run ...
This should be fantastic sport , landing the big one ... got the beersies in the eski on deck , in my easy chair ... thrash & roll you big beautiful thing ... by dawn , your bass is mine ...
It should be a mix of better engineering and better planning, combined with sound monitoring and warning system. People should live WITH the nature and not against it.
As for the "climate change" propaganda, there is no single cause and effect, global climate is a very complex system, what affects south pacific will not have anything to do with the rainfall or drought in northern Europe. Earth rotation (Milankovch cycles), sun radiation, ocean currents, volcanic eruptions etc, vast elements that influence whether it will rain or shine or be hot or cold. Too complex to even list.
Coming back to flooding in Hawkes Bay, just learning about the events in the last 150 years or so would help with determining where to live, where to grow, how to protect, where to divert flood waters, where to install warning systems. A big project but similarly to regulated Waikato River and a very good flood warning infrastructure, it could work.
And about the above the article, OMG, nothing more than a bunch of propaganda jargon and fluff. No material evidence for statements, just blunt assumptions.
Sorry if I seem dismissive of what are legitimate safety concerns. Obviously they would have to be designed for safe operation in flood conditions.
As for been too small, 2 points . One is i'm not trying to eliminate flooding completely. That's impossible. the aim is to take the most damaging high level, to a survivable level..Maybe 5 to 10 % of peak flow.
Secondly , i'm thinking small units , but on a big mass produced scale. every stream , or even every suitable farm would have one in the upper catchment key to it working would be the need to be able to control the pumping / dumping of all of them in the lilkiehood of a severe rain event.
I think everyone needs to take a chill pill. Anyone remember 2004 and the Manawatu floods? All of the coastal and a lot of the inland areas were wiped out. Cowsheds and homes under water or gone. The destruction was huge but perhaps not as significant as this. Yet 19 years have passed and nothing as bad again. This hopefully too wont repeat in a hurry. But these soils are rich and productive precisely due to regular historical flooding. You cant have both...no floods and the land will diminish in productivity.
And you know...the Tonga volcano most likely played a part....
Maybe Belle, what plays a bigger part is a weather pattern that lets tropical cyclones track down onto NZ..... reading my earlier post Fiji expects 5-7 i think named trop cyclones a year , 3 servere ones cat 3. Thats a lot of trop cyclones per year average vs volcanoes..... they used to track more across towards Townsville etc, but now they seem to be tracking down towards us a bit more often.
We are not getting the strong/moderate SW winds up through the Tasman under this third year of the weather pattern. luckily for us the H may help stop the current ones dropping south before they pass above us
We just had three years of droughty type summers. Dry as buggery. The winters werent much better. I am just saying calm the farm...when was the last time a volcano blasted that much water into our atmosphere...it does have to come back down. Lets not all throw our hands in the air and think she is all over rover. We have some problems to sort, 35 years ago it was Bola, so we planted pines. Then we started cutting them down, big mistake for east coast country...now Gabrielle taught us a new lesson. Neither farming or processing pines works. We can sort it, but between a volcano, La nina and pine plantations we have had a nightmarish few months. La nina will end, the extra water in the atmosphere will go and we have some hard decisions about our hill country.
Too linear, Belle. This is exponential and cumulative. The key word is 'record'; when you hear it again and again, that doesn't mean the same, it means more. And more.
We needed to be well beyond this point, debating-wise. Shame on those who would obfuscate. I suspect my grandchildren - if they get the time - will use stronger language. As, I suspect, will yours....
the people of Fielding might disagree. Plus they have done quite alot of work since then. but it will happen again.
And for some reason the Manawatu farms that go under seem to benefit from a bit of silt . They don't have to put fert on for a few years after a flood . Maybe the mineral mix upstream , or just that its widely spread , not concentrated.
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