"Further softening" in property values over the coming months is being predicted by property data and analytics firm CoreLogic.
In the company's latest Mapping the Market data release, CoreLogic's NZ chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said the recent cut to the Official Cash Rate by the Reserve Bank [from 5.50% to 5.25%] and falling mortgage rates could "offer some short-term relief to buyers".
But he does not expect a swift rebound in property values. He expects the market to remain subdued into 2025.
"Stock levels are at multi-year highs, giving buyers more leverage, but access to finance remains tricky, limiting how many can take advantage of the current conditions," he said.
"The tailwinds of lower rates may prevent a sharp decline, but we’re unlikely to see strong price growth in the near term.
"This may mean vendors who do not have to sell stay put until market conditions improve, while those looking to buy or invest could face delays unless they have the financial backing to negotiate in a competitive lending environment."
CoreLogic takes a suburb-by-suburb look, covering the rises and falls in value of 951 suburbs around the country.
Davidson said that out of these suburbs 480 had median property values rise by at least 1% since September 2023, which was "decent".
However, the past 12 months had been made up of two distinct phases; a period of recovery in late 2023 and early 2024, followed by "a recent downturn over the past three months".
Since June, 674 out of the 951 suburbs had seen property values decline, with 175 of those dropping by at least 2%.
While around half of the suburbs analysed have experienced value gains over the past 12 months, recent months have seen a shift in momentum, Davidson said.
"Rising affordability pressures, increased listings, and growing job insecurity have led to a more cautious buyer environment, resulting in falling values across other areas."
Davidson said signs of a slowdown are now much clearer, "especially in Auckland".
Auckland’s property market has "experienced notable declines", with 129 of 200 suburbs recording drops in value over the past year. Of these, 57 suburbs fell by at least 2%.
But in just the last three months, 183 of the 200 Auckland suburbs saw declines. East Tamaki, Northpark, and Somerville all recorded falls of more than 6%."
Herne Bay remains the country’s most expensive suburb at $3.38 million, while Auckland Central is the most affordable within the super-city at $528,100.
Looking nationally, double-digit gains were recorded in eight suburbs in the year to September, led by the top increase of 22.6% to a median value of $313,000 in Cobden and 15.9% to $333,750 in Blaketown, both in Grey District.
Davidson said the best performing suburbs were generally at the more affordable end of the spectrum, with five of the eight best performing ones maintaining a median value of less than $500,000.
Outliers included the popular South Island historic hub of Arrowtown, where the median value of $2.45 million makes it the fifth most expensive suburb across the country.
"Markets such as Arrowtown and the wider Queenstown market are sought-after lifestyle areas, they hold broad appeal among tourists, second homeowners and owner occupiers which has made them more resilient despite the broader affordability pressures."
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