ANZ has raised its fixed rate offers for all terms out to three years.
Their new one year rate is up +30 bps to 4.85%, a level that matches Kiwibank's recent change.
Their two year fixed rate is up +10 bps to 5.35%, and their three year rate is up a similar +10 bps to 5.65%. At these levels they are all the highest 'specials' in the current home loan market.
And they probably signal where their main rivals will be shifting to soon.
ANZ is New Zealand's largest home loan lender, in fact our largest bank.
This change was advised within minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia surprising markets with a +50 bps official rate hike. It was one greater than expected. See this.
The RBA move will shift wholesale rates up regionally, and that will include for New Zealand. The RBA move came after the wholesale rate markets closed here today.
Wholesale swap rates have been trending up recently, but that is after they took a detour down following international trends, a dip that most banks didn't follow with fixed rate cuts at the time.
Internationally, the central bank signals are that chunky rate rises are coming from most reviews out past September, so wholesale markets are pricing those in and that could well have a strong influence on local interest rate swap market levels.
ANZ also raised their term deposit rate offers, by between +10 bps and +30 bps. Their new 6 month rate becomes 2.50% and their new one year rate becomes 3.15%. But unlike others, ANZ still don't have any term deposit offers of 4% or greater.
One useful way to make sense of these changed home loan rates is to use our full-function mortgage calculator which is also below. (Term deposit rates can be assessed using this calculator).
And if you already have a fixed term mortgage that is not up for renewal at this time, our break fee calculator may help you assess your options. But break fees should be minimal in a rising market.
Here is the updated snapshot of the lowest advertised fixed-term mortgage rates on offer from the key retail banks at the moment.
| Fixed, below 80% LVR | 6 mths | 1 yr | 18 mth | 2 yrs | 3 yrs | 4 yrs | 5 yrs |
| as at June 7, 2022 | % | % | % | % | % | % | % |
| ANZ | 4.95 +0.30 |
4.85 +0.30 |
5.15 +0.25 |
5.35 +0.10 |
5.65 +0.10 |
6.35 | 6.45 |
 |
4.49 | 4.49 | 4.85 | 5.25 | 5.55 | 6.35 | 6.45 |
 |
4.39 | 4.55 | 4.90 | 5.25 | 5.45 | 5.79 | 5.99 |
 |
5.10 | 4.85 | 5.19 | 5.39 | 5.55 | 5.79 | |
 |
4.59 | 4.49 | 4.89 | 5.19 | 5.49 | 5.79 | 5.89 |
| Bank of China | 4.45 | 4.80 | 5.10 | 5.40 | 5.70 | 5.90 | |
| China Construction Bank | 4.35 | 4.45 | 4.85 | 5.19 | 5.45 | 6.15 | 6.35 |
| Co-operative Bank | 4.29 | 4.29 | 4.85 | 5.19 | 5.45 | 5.75 | 5.95 |
| Heartland Bank | 4.18 | 4.84 | 4.95 | ||||
| HSBC | 4.49 | 4.39 | 4.89 | 5.15 | 5.39 | 5.69 | 5.89 |
| ICBC | 4.39 | 4.29 | 4.79 | 5.09 | 5.35 | 5.65 | 5.89 |
 |
4.65 | 4.55 | 4.89 | 5.19 | 5.39 | 5.79 | 5.95 |
 |
4.45 | 4.34 | 4.90 | 4.99 | 5.35 | 5.55 | 5.75 |
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51 Comments
If you really believe is is not "it" then you should seize it.
Go buy as much as you can.
Leverage as much as possible.
Get rich!
it's your money, make of it what you prefer.
Believe what you want.
In terms of what people think, the different expectations are what make the market.
If everybody believe an asset go up the market stops, same if everybody believe it goes down.
There will always be people that think differently and that is good.
If there was a credible financial instrument to short the NZ housing market today I would go ALL-IN, anyways, and with leverage too
Depends if you think "it" is financial end of times, or just an extended period of meh.
That's a terrible strategy.
Get rid of debt.
Build reserves.
Counter inflation by bringing things in house (food, energy, water if poss).
Basically, reduce your dependence on externalities.
That is decisely not what happens in the housing market.
People make debts, a lot of debts, and make themselves very vulnerable to everything that can happen.
So I guess buying an house with a mortgage is a terrible strategy for you, well... I agree :D
While renting and stay debt free as much as possible while making as much capital as possible is a good strategy (again, I agree)
Yes - but don't be too hard. I think labour team have never been in a private business so cant really be expected to understand all that business stuff.
Just hire more people, start more committees, open and close some borders, give cash to everyone who shouts and prod the RBNZ to lower interest rates.... its so easy (i think grant is shocked more countries arent doing it!
The deflationary debt spiral probably begins at the start of 2023. The global de-leveraging event about to take place will be epic. Credit derivatives probably sitting at around 1.4 quadrillion at the moment. Cash is about to become King again, I hope everyone has planned accordingly.
Thanks to leveraging, there doesn't need to be! We can all be fake rich by betting on future events and economic confidence, but don't call them bets, give them a financially word that doesn't make it sounds like we are gambling with someone elses money (often repeatedly, based on the presumed outcome of the previous bet).
I note many people commenting on what they want to happen, generally based on their own personal interests, ie if you already own a property you want the price to go up, and if you don't, you want the price to go down.
But when I look at the underlying economic principles of what is going on, irrespective of what I want to personally happen, I see as much as 50% of the pricing of housing being made up of non-value-added costs that are only there due to restrictive policies, much of which is totally self-inflicted by poor Govt. policy.
That is, pricing could correct to be more towards a 5 x median income multiple just due to the underlying economic principles at work.
For many jurisdictions overseas, this is not a problem, because they are already at this median multiple or lower, ie they do not have this non-value-added bubble value in their prices that will pop, ie they have a stable market with hardly any up or down in price. And they are operating at just above the land's next best economic value which any stable market does. For it to fall any further than this would signal a Detriot-style complete economic collapse.
However for our NZ housing to fall to 5x median income, while still being higher than many stable housing markets, would trigger many other issues due to the amount of fixed mortgage debt that this top 50% above true value represents, and has to be paid back, regardless of the value that it is meant to represent.
It all points to that, and worse due to other international factors. And I think it is too late in the election cycle for the Govt. to buy, ie delay, their way out of it.
I think one of the biggest impediments to having a revert from a bust is all the extra costs that are being loaded in long term for Climate Mitigation strategies.
While these costs are some other people's revenue and that will be good for them, for most people it will be an added burden, where they will be paying on one hand for the rising disincentive costs of the 'old way,' and also for the transitional 'new costs'.
World Bank president David Malpass. Today
Global economic growth is expected to slow down before the end of the year, and most countries should begin preparing for a recession, according to the World Bank’s latest global economic forecast released on Tuesday.
“Several years of above-average inflation and below-average growth are now likely, with potentially destabilizing consequences for low- and middle-income economies. It’s a phenomenon—stagflation—that the world has not seen since the 1970s,” he wrote
I am so relaxed knowing our Grant knows better - even with the most overinflated house prices (falling like stones), historically low OCR and a falling dollar.... our man is onto it.
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