Saturday 21 March is the day when community transmission of COVID-19 first became evident. It is apparent that there is now at least one COVID-19 case from unknown community transmission, with this being in the Wairarapa. There also appears to be a case in Auckland involving a two-step infection back to a traveller.
Assuming the Wairarapa infection occurred three to seven days ago, then the likelihood is that there are now multiple more cases ‘out there’ waiting to be found.
Until now, the cases predominantly link to air arrivals up to about 15 March and most are from several days prior to that. But in this last week, the risk profile of new returnees has increased considerably.
Given that identified infections have risen approximately six-fold in the last week, currently standing at 53 and up from 28 just two days ago, it is reasonable to expect a similar rate of increase in the next week. An increase of anything less than three-times over the coming week would be a good outcome, but that would still take us to over 150 cases.
For arrivals from most countries, the apparent risk factor associated with each person has increased by a factor of about four in this last week, but for those from the United States it appears to have increased at a considerably faster rate. The flow of returnees in this last week has been remarkable.
In designing the appropriate policy for this coming week, the key issues relate to the people who arrived last week, together with all of the people who are still to come in this week.
There are two key weak points with the current control system. The first relates to the lax quarantining of people, including but not only New Zealanders, arriving from overseas. The second relates to internal transmission within the country through the contacts of these people. I have previously described these as fatal flaws.
The time has now come for all new returnees to be placed upon arrival in Government quarantine for fourteen days at army facilities. Returnees could be transported to facilities such as at Whangaparoa, Linton and Burnham, including using chartered planes from Auckland.
There must be thousands of camper vans that rental companies would love to rent to the authorities to house the returnees at the army bases. The army could feed them. If necessary, hotels could be contracted to provide additional meals. The system has essentially already been trialled for the 150 Wuhan returnees back in early February.
As for internal transmission, it is remarkable that pubs, restaurants, libraries, museums and gyms still remain open. Where they have closed, then it is based on decisions by local authorities and individual businesses, not by central government.
I have been hearing our Prime Minister referring multiple times to the examples of Taiwan, Singapore and even South Korea as the models we are following. This is make-believe from her health advisers who clearly do not understand how those societies work. I have discussed that previously.
In any case, numbers are now ramping up again in all three of these countries, largely driven by their own citizens returning home but also from internal transmission.
The following quote is taken from a comment in the New York Times, dated there as 20 March. It was written for an American audience, and of course with American spelling, but it is just as relevant for us. The key point is that we may think that we are patterning ourselves on these countries, but we aren’t.
“I was in Taiwan for several months when the Wuhan outbreak first happened. People on the street were concerned, fearful, but staunch - went about their daily routines. The government was really fast - boarding airplanes from China, taking temperatures of passengers and also arriving passengers from different places. If you went to a restaurant or museum, your temperature was first taken, your hands sanitized, and you had to wear a face mask if you wanted in. The custom in Taiwan is opposite Italy’s, people keep a polite distance. Public touching, not much. Public and mass transportation - wear face masks. Healthcare is universal and data of sick people went right to the epidemiology command center in real time. People were quarantined and tracked by their cell-phone to ensure compliance. Violators were fined substantially.”
I have yet to see any evidence of thermometers being used as a screening tool in New Zealand.
I also note our Prime Minister says in defence of our testing rate that the New Zealand rate is similar to South Korea on a per capita basis. There are two issues there.
First, I think her advisers have got their maths wrong. But even more important, they have not factored in that the South Korean outbreak was focused in the city of Daegu, and also that most of the infected people belonged to a particular religious sect, with these people largely socialising among themselves. Every member of that sect who could be identified, some 200,000, was tested. Despite all of those advantages, infections are increasing rather rapidly again in South Korea, with over 380 new cases in the last three days.
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Here in New Zealand, a key voice that authorities do not seem to be listening to is Professor Michael Baker from the Wellington Campus of Otago Medical School. His speciality is public health. He has spoken publicly on multiple occasions in recent weeks about COVID-19 and these statements are easily found by googling his name.
In recent days, Professor Baker has talked about schools being great places for viruses to spread within and hence the need to now close schools until we get things under control. Today, he has also described the current situation and lack of testing in New Zealand as “emblematic of the need for a pulse of lockdown”. He says that “it sounds melodramatic to say now or never, but I think it's the case."
As for asking over-70s to stay at home, I am cautious about that. As a measure of self-protection, it will become increasingly necessary as the infection rates rise. But right now, the key issue is getting ahead of the curve, and it won’t help very much at all in that regard.
Given that the Government’s policy is increasingly looking like flattening the curve, and hence consistent with a long-term goal of herd immunity rather than focusing on stamping it out, the over-70s are at risk of being shut up for a very long time. The issue of social isolation of this group becomes of great importance.
The longer that our leaders and their advisers focus on the rear vision mirror and use incorrect analogies from overseas, then the more we will stay behind the curve.
Let’s get pro-active and stamp it out. The harder we stamp then the shorter time it will take. And that means that we all have to do our part in the next month to six weeks.
If we stamp hard enough then we still have an excellent chance of eliminating the disease from our shores, although we will now have to stamp considerably harder than if we had moved more proactively a week ago. It is in that context that I said several days ago that the Government had lost the plot.
Government quarantine of all new returnees, plus closing of pubs, restaurants, nightclubs and gyms, and also unfortunately the closing of schools until the end of Easter, is what we now need. The alternative is a long and brutal winter.
*Keith Woodford was Professor of Farm Management and Agribusiness at Lincoln University for 15 years through to 2015. He is now Principal Consultant at AgriFood Systems Ltd, and has had a longstanding interest in epidemiology. He can be contacted at kbwoodford@gmail.com
377 Comments
The States.
The army full of low IQ generation kill video game trigger pullers V a heap of Hill Billies, Preppers, Gangsters and all the other nutters that the States has in abundance.
Throw them together we get lead flying. Once that happens once the army gets tense after a few deaths those triggers get pulled even faster the next time.
No it won't happen here correct.
I did not say civil war at all. Have another read Mayer you are barking up the wrong tree. The States is volatile at the best of times with their shoot first and ask questions later mentality.
I am very calm as I am ready and don't really give a toss because I will come out of this smiling however it plays out.
Add one bunch of gun toting Yanks, telling another bunch of gun toting Yanks what to do and the result is blood shed. Or do they just have a yarn and walk away in your book?
If you are calm, then stop posting your ridiculous comments.
I have lived in the US, I know some American military people. They are anything but, the people you describe. Most Americans are level headed and not the spectrum of loonies both on the left and right you see in the media.
I wish you good luck as we head into the unknown. Remember, breathe, keep your wits and stop panicking and spreading panic.
Two weeks ago I got called all sorts saying that the airports should be closed. I replied that we'll talk about this in a month. I didn't have to wait that month.
You and I can chat about this in two months and see who called it correctly.
I met a lot of the stock standard US troops in Germany. The are far from the sharpest knives around.
A few gun toting groups are about to meet and there is a very high chance, blood will be spilt very publically. Not freaking, it's just logic!
We have a level 5 but they will only tell us on the day so not to scare everyone now.
It will be when schools shut and army takes over controlling the major cities same as Italy etc.
Also keep stocking up soon the supermarkets will only have core items no more pasta rice or anything that is not made here and even those items made here will run out as very few products made here are 100 percent kiwi ingredients just look at packets and you will see many ingredients on NZ made products are imported and added to NZ ingredients to finish the product.
We will soon be in war like lockdown the enemy is worldwide and it is shutting down everything for about 40 days and then supplys will ramp back over 6-12months period.
What movie are you watching, Kezza? This isn’t World War Z! This is a global pandemic that can be managed, like any other natural disaster, but only if people stay calm. So, take a deep breath and calm down.
What do you expect is going to happen that the police will be unable to manage? Again I say, this is not a movie, it’s New Zealand and there will be no marauding masses. Most people will use their common sense and crack on with life.
NZ has a highly competent Defence Force with excellent leaders and personnel trained and proficient in humanitarian aid and disaster relief. They are ready to step up to the plate in the event supply lines are broken and to support warehouses, supermarkets and the po po if necessary!
Have another read and chill out mate.
Kiwi's will do what they are told. No issues there, were a fairly law abuiding bunch.
The police will be busy dealing with family violence and nutters out there looting, which happened in Christchurch. I happen to know for a fact that police are already factoring in a different work load.
So what's your issue?
I have no issue other than to remind you to calm down. Stop with this end of civilisation as we know it, hysteria. The difference between now and ChCh.... where I might remind you, there was very little looting and what there was mostly opportunistic, is if you break into someone’s house to steal stuff, you could contract COVID19 and die...
Kezza has a point -- if the all blacks lose domestic violence cases increase significantly for that weekend as do alcohol and other violent crimes - hard to see large scale unemployment, large scale reductions in hours and incomes, bankruptcy, repossessions , and access to services restricted having less effect --
yes, but the link to the ABs/Warriors/(other team) loosing and the spike in violence has some pretty well known causes..
Yes, general depression/unemployment etc will likely cause these to spike, but guess what, that happens either way, if we shut down the country, you can be sure the losers that beat their wives will be confined to home, and drinking to pass the time and yep, up goes family violence rate. Same thing we don't close the country down and then coronavirus forces us to lockdown everything reactively. But yours and Becnz's scaremongering is hilarious.. Army locking down the whole country and police patrolling the streets fighting raoming gangs of drunken yoofs at hidden level 5 status. Lmao.
It is people like you Prag with your abusive behaviour and higher than than the rest that create issues as well. Sexiest comments, name calling, idiot was another comment you spat at me on this section.
I didn't say anything about what you are on about. You seriously need to read what the hell you comment on before tapping away.
NZ has some serious abuse problems. Throw being stuck in a house together, money issues and cabin fever, maybe a few withdrawls from substances and there is only one out come. The kids that had school to get away for a bit of normality and to get away for a bit are the ones I feel sorry for.
It isn't a guess that the NZ Police are already talking about this and how to deal with it.
Hardly a laughing matter Prag.
I concur with this.
Defence force trained and ready. A close family member served in war zones in the NZ Army. His advice is what the army do and that's because it's the only thing anyone can do, continue as normal. Adapt to changing situations but otherwise continue as normal.
There's something in the human psyche which loves baying for blood, loves catastrophizing and drama and armageddon disaster. We won't be getting that.
Kiwis are resourceful, generous and will get through this. We aren't buying into the mad panic which they are overseas. NZ also has a good record of managing public health campaigns. Everyone will be fine here.
If you think I am joking go and talk to people in the army if you know someone they are ready to go when needed just like after Christchurch quake shuting down city for a month.
Also just drove past the stockyards in Sockburn Christchurch and they seem to erecting marquees etc and have a number of refrigerated trucks parked up.
What do you think they are doing that for????.
Unfortunaly it will get bad here just like everywhere else and all we can do is prepare the best we can.
Murray Grimwood says it all in his article and reference to the Titanic analogy
""This passing renders the ‘don’t scare the passengers’ approach, obsolete. And we need to stick to facts – lifejacket-issuance is of no use given the water-temperature, temporarily reassuring though that transaction may be to both parties.""
One thing the govt could do now is plan for convalescent plasma therapy: The idea is that people who have had covid 19 and recovered have specific antibodies. Plasma transfusion from these convalescent patients can be used to treat seriously ill patients. It has already been done in China and annecdotally has shown good results; check out these links and https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)3014… https://ccforum.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13054-020-2818-6 http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-02/28/c_138828177.htm https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/03/13/covid-19-antibody-sera-arturo-casadevall/
Once patients are tested positive they could be given an appointment for plasma transfusion at an optimum time; when viral infection cured and immunity is still high, say 3-4 weeks after onset of symptoms, moving forward antibody tests are being developed so convalescent patients could be tested for high levels of antibodies before transfusion.
I agree. The risks are known. We need to be preemptive in countering them, not wait on the risks becoming manifest as the cue to action. This is a failure of will, not insight. Right now, we have a political class that seeks to be liked more than respected; that condemns and avoids confrontation; that looks for, and most approves, peaceable outcomes. Our nation - like the world - faces a challenge indifferent to these values. The only way to counter and defeat this challenge is to be responsibly deliberate, to embrace measures that seem harsh ('tough love' in familial terms), and accept the necessity of much sacrifice for a greater good. These are war-time needs, and war-time values.
My fear - like yours, I think Keith - is that, unlike Singapore, South Korea, other admired states, we do not have this political will or capability at hand. And this now presents an immense, growing, and accelerating danger to us all. The government must rise to its responsibilities urgently, not follow in others' trodden paths of indecision and delay into overwhelming national failure: meaning the deaths of many dependent hundreds.
You're spot on workingman.
In fact, this is the very occasion in which having an authoritarian government like China, Russia, Singapore, Peru, et al, would be better than the 'touchy feely' democratic government we have in this country today. In fact, it came across one of the news channels tonight that the military are in control of the streets in Peru; no pussyfooting around in Peru.
Its become obvious that many NZders wouldn't know or care about self-isolation. I think Ardern should declare a level 4 immediately and put our military on the streets, particularly in our major cities.
I would HOPE and EXPECT the authorities would have access to A CENTRAL REGISTER OF RECENT ARRIVALS TOLD TO SELF-ISOLATE; anybody in the register found on the streets, by the military during random stops, when they should be self-isolating, would be arrested on the spot and face a prison term plus a $10,000 fine.
She has to talk to us like four year olds, because some of y'all are behaving like four year olds. Look at the bloody stupid things people are saying and doing. Just look at some of the comments on this very thread. Some of the most panicked are the same folk that just a week ago were saying this was all a hoax and NZs response was way over the top.
Based on conversations I've had I do not believe the average Kiwi yet appreciates how serious this is or why they are being asked to undertake these actions. However I believe that as the body count adds up (which lags the virus spread) people will begin to appreciate how serious the situation is.
Idiots buying now deserve no sympathy they are the ultimate in greed.
I predict a return to 2010 prices.
I bought a section in Albert Town Wanaka in 2010-11 cost was only 140k (now 350k) think about that and the build cost was only 1750sqm for a small house.
Now it has doubled and I think who are these idiots paying twice what I payed less than 10 years later.
We have no housing shortage and land prices are being jacked by developers.
Lets see how quickly house and land packages drop back to the price of an old house that need money spent on it and see how quickly old houses drop then.
It will be the developers who destroy our housing market when they start selling house and land at cost plus a few percent to survive the next 5 years.
Cash will rule in this market and anyone who has it is going to get some very good prices again.
It will be a lot more than developers selling at a loss.
Tourist towns taking a massive hit.
Those out of work and need money.
Those who owe a large % to the bank.
Investors who didn't see this coming.
People who dived out of stocks and into property.
All the sheep that decide to follow the sell offs.
People who are moving cities due to not having work.
Watching the people who have been taking part in the panic buying of toilet paper are probably the same people who took part in the panic buying of properties (own and rentals) the last 8-10 years. Irrational....and likely irrational on the way up and equally irrational on the way down.
Society might say it's based on christian values yet reality would suggest we've walked the opposite path.
Embedded in our teachings is "economic" rational self interest. Better your own life economically and you supposedly improve others. Hoard/accumulate as much wealth as possible for yourself and you improve the lives of others. What you and I may agree as irrational is perfectly rational to those you describe above. On the whole "Christian" values end up playing second fiddle to economic rational self interest.
Our history would suggest an origin of enslavement, the enclosure and exclusion of the commons by a few to enrich a few. Emperors, monarchy, the church, all paid lip service to religious values, one law for them and rules for everyone else. This hasn't changed, it has merely conditioned everyone. Now we have corporations, govt., central banks and the same ethos pervading society. Only now it has been normalised as success and we call it capitalism. Yeah, we've created an abundance of things, material comforts and conveniences, luxury items etc all in the name of what, "wealth"? Have we evolved into any sense of humanity or even "civilisation"?
These sacrifices you mention, is that the corporations sacrificing profits to pay higher wages or employees sacrificing their "jobs" when the economics goes balls up? Is it the serfs sacrificing their time to serve their masters, is it the ordinary person sacrificing their future overloaded with debt to secure a home? Is it the leaders sacrificing their lives for "freedom" or is it the masses being ordered to sacrifice theirs? Is it one generation sacrificing their conditioned beliefs or imposing them on future generations?
Are people sacrificing by choice or by force? Are they serving or is it servitude?
Do we know any different?
When the virus is over do we go back to normal?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120473826/coronavir… . Its basically why interest rates can't go up.
If they do que mass lawlessness and destruction of society. There will be a Vax for this virus by this time next year. Until then New Zealand can borrow what it needs to survive. Other countries arn't so lucky.
Nothing is impossible but maybe most people are blind or to scared to believe what may happen.
We are just starting the massive reset now.
Watch and see the sharemarkets collapse even with trillions trying to stop it.
This will dwarf 2008 and maybe even 1929.
Do you think 2 weeks ago they would shut down the country I know I did and it is just the beginning.
I believe this will take 10 plus years to recover from.
Just think about all the defaults starting soon.
Confirmed cases are a lowball snapshot of what was happening two weeks ago. I think this paper is pretty important, it says that 86% of cases were undocumented. That's both good and bad news. More people that we though will have mild disease, but it also means the virus is far more transmissible. All but the most draconian of shutdowns will be inadequate. I'm worried about the elderly because they'll all have to go to the supermarket at some stage.
Keith, I see that you must realize that today's media reportage that the two cases stated as not travel-linked are in fact travel linked, but just one or two or more intermediate contacts away. This would be the first instance of incompetent reporting by the 'big' media in this matter. It could create the erroneous impression, among the general populace, that this plague (let's call a spade a spade) is somehow spontaneously generated out of thin air. But there is obviously some link back to an arrival.
I would agree with your view, expressed in your articles, that Jacinda and her MPs have been too 'soft'. We would have been better off with a competent dictator, albeit a benevolent one. Jacinda has been trying to please too many people of different stripes.
I've been around in my 72 years and I know that there are categories of the population out there who just won't take the situation seriously: they are either young and think they are bullet-proof, or perversely selfish, or just plain dumb and cannot appreciate the implications.
Good work Kieth. Here's another good article on the matter. TLDR lockdown now is best choice to save lives, reduce economic cost and give time for us to get the tools we need to fight (expand ICU capacity, develop treatments)
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9…
Hi Keith , welcome back . Hope all is well on your return.
Latest graphic of tests per million, puts New Zealand somewhere close to the bottom
https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS-GLOBAL-TESTING/0100B5LC…
That graphic is interesting.
So, we have to have answers to the following questions:
Do we have many test-kits available? If not, are they on there way?
Do we have the people qualified to carry out the testing?
If not, then are we giving potential testers a crash course in testing?
But, hang on a minute, we must be one of the most geographically isolated countries in the world, along with the Falkland islands and Iceland.
We have no land borders with any other country and Australia is miles away.
Apart from cruise ships, we don't don't have any shipped arrivals.
So that leaves the airports that our all our arrivals must come through to enter the country. I may be wrong but I believe only Christchurch and Auckland Airports admit international arrivals.
So, with geographical isolation and only two bottle-neck airports to monitor and test, controlling and testing of arrivals should have been a piece of cake. So, what went wrong at the airports?
So, with geographical isolation and only two bottle-neck airports to monitor and test, controlling and testing of arrivals should have been a piece of cake.
We don't have capacity to test every single arrival, so we aren't. Simple as that.
Given that reality, we need to spend the scarce test resources that we do have in the best way that we can.
Are the MoH doing it perfectly? Probably not.
Are they testing every bozo who turns up thinking they might have a disease that is still pretty rare in NZ? No.
Is that the sensible thing to do given the scarce testing resource? Yes.
Queenstown as well.
At the beginning Jacinda fed us 'trust us, it's not that bad we are preparing and have it under control'.
Now we get knee jerk ass covering day after day.
Several people on here have stated that all they received apon entry into NZ was a piece of paper with instructions. This is all playing out like Kiwi Build and other Labour projects. All talk from above and on the ground level NOTHING. There is a major disconnect between this government and those who implement their instructions.
There is so much misinformation (and to be frank, stupidity) in this article and in these comments. Sigh.
That data is OBVIOUSLY outdated... given NZ completed 1,500 tests two days ago, and 1,000 tests three days ago. Would you rather we used all our tests upfront testing everyone unnecessarily and then ran out of supply once the pandemic headed towards its peak?
Who said anyone is accepting it as OK? Only you, as far as I can tell.
The rest of us are dealing with the reality of the current situation of the scarcity of test kits. It would be better if they weren't so scarce. But they are. Whinging about it on the internet isn't going to change the reality and it's not like the government is sitting on its hands and requires internet commentators to suggest that they get more test kits.
I have heard Bloomfield say we could test more if we needed to. The staff would have to work longer hours. He doesnt want that. Now are these staff the only people in NZ able to do this? Should we be testing more people? Should we be hiring more technicians? I dont know the answer to these very impt questions. Anyone?
He said on Thursday they were doing 1,000 tests and they could go up to 1,500 but that requires longer shifts in the lab.
On Friday they did 1,500 tests are so evidently are now using longer hours in the labs.
Now are these staff the only people in NZ able to do this? Should we be testing more people? Should we be hiring more technicians?
The MoH are ramping up testing capability.
National radio said on Friday they were doing just 20 tests per day.
Edit - checked my old posts and it was Monday 16th 20 tests per day stated on RNZ. My bad. Point is PM could not claim there was no community transmission when only 20 tests were being done. Why were more tests not being done jsut last week? Only 6000 to date.
Funny, because the MoH press conference they've been streaming on National Radio every day at 1pm said on Friday they had done ~1,000 tests on Thursday and on Saturday they had done ~1,500 tests on Friday.
Unless you have a citation / timestamp for when this was said on National Radio, I simply don't believe you.
Lanthanida, the graphic , dated Friday 20 March, which I posted was sourced from collated WHO data. On that date , compared to the other nations ,the data provided to the WHO by New Zealand , of which New Zealand is a member, shows that New Zealand had not gone "hard and early"
I don't know why there is a discrepancy in the data they have vs what the ministry of health is saying. I'd guess that it isn't a priority for the ministry to be informing the WHO of our data.
Secondly Jacinda never said we were going "hard and early" specifically with respect to testing, it was as a general response to the crisis and the actions taken were fundamentally around border control. We were amongst the first in the world to ban travel from China and then Iran.
They know that it is here and are already preparing to shut everything down for a few weeks.
The only way out is to let it spread and limit deaths as best they can.
No country could be shut down for more than 30 days otherwise everyone will starve and chaos will rise.
They are trying to be PC and say we tried to stop it knowing that it is impossible.
Best thing everyone can do is keep healthy and hope your immunity has not been destroyed by poor lifestyle choices.
Vitamin D will be one thing I am keeping up right now vitamins and sun before winter hits.
Remember in 1918-19 they just let it run and faced the consequences.
The hope of a vaccine is just that and is only being used to try and calm everyone.
I am and telling people to calm down when they give their view in a forum like this isn't useful - it achieves nothing and adds zero to the quality of discussion. Perhaps head back to the stuff or FB comments sections?
How much debt do you have at the moment on rental properties?
They don't need to be scarce, that's a big point.
Another big point, and look at the comments, no body knows the situation about test kits, supply of reagents, and kit availability to front line medics.
As for how government operates, maybe check your assumptions.
If you get some time, take a look at root cause analysis. It's a thing, can be very helpfu, body of workl. Takes the emotion out of things.
Why did the government not report how many tests they were doing per day? Pretty basic information. Red radio - edit - on Monday the 16th - they were only doing 20 tests a day - yet govt proclaiming there was no community transmission. How could they claim that when there was no community testing - and examples of people with symptoms being refused tests because they weren't travellers. 20 tests a day as late as last week is a cruel joke.
yep - people flying in on monday -- not tested to friday despite coming from infected country - germany and feeling flu like symtoms -- result be know today -- but no in stats till tomorrow = massive lag in data -- no process for checking in on her self isolating - just trust -- which we all know is not working so well! its one of many real stories from real people arriving home - not tested just isolating and no checks on that
No saying. Just asking. Hence the question mark. March 16th 524 tests done. 8 positive 2 probable. Let's just call that 10 positive.
10/524 = 0.019. Assuming the testing criteria has not changed. 0.019 x 6000 tests = 114 cases. But would expect the ratio of positives to be higher now. As more recent arrivals being tested were in the origin countries at a time when the level of virus transmission in the local population was higher. From the travel movements released so far from today's new cases. Some of them arrived after the self-isolation rules began
It's almost like the government wanted the virus to spread throughout the community, letting cruise ship passengers get off and walk about and allowing returnees on flights to just return to their homes.
If we want to save lives and our economy we need to truly hit hard and hit early. Quarantine all returnees into government controlled facilities. Shutdown almost everything for a month. Severe fines or incarceration for violations. Everyone doing their part and taking it all very seriously.
Just for a month. It may seem over the top for many but it is just a month. All in this together. After a month has passed we will see how the rest of the world is coping and have a better idea how to progress while having hopefully contained our own outbreak.
There's an additional problem that was shown in Australia on Bondi Beach is that many younger people are ignoring social distancing. Someone posted a picture on twitter of Courtenay Place in Wellington with people queued up outside bars. We can't trust people to do the right thing.
I like the idea of shutting pretty much everything down so that it gives everyone a feeling of being in the effort together. I don't see why workers should have to wait on tables as if nothing has changed during this stage. Mandatory wearing of masks and eye protection while outside as well if even to just give people a sense of the gravity of the situation. It stops you from touching your face inadvertantly.
As I stated above "just for a month". Truly go in hard and heavy, no half measures, for a quick resolution. Otherwise it could just drag on and on.
Immunity builds community... When is the medical solution being rolled out, with all of the medical personnel and 24 hours in a day it shouldn't take a year! Governments should be on this and offer a billion dollars to the first successful individual/company to provide effective vaccines.
QUESTION- if we have one month lockdown would you allow tourists back afterwards
I dont know probably 50 percent. The CV cant be that contagious anyway, the orangeman, in defiance, has been shaking hands everyone and with CV+ persons and has not caught CV yet. The infected tool concert goer did not infect anyone as far as I know. And the youngest Briton to have died was aged 59 with health problems so they cant say yet whether he died of CV. We have over 50 either currently infected or recovered from CV. Not one has died and I think no-one is in hospital right now which means they are not terribly sick. Locking down the population is an excuse for not providing enough health services in times.of need.
So far in nz there is no justification to say that thousands will die. The facts thus far is that the virus is not that rampant in nz. I am in favour of sensible measures but not for shutting the economy. You should accept that there will be some deaths, maybe hundreds, medical professionals know that's very normal. Going to extra extreme measures for something normal is wrong.
Total lockdown for 9-18months while we wait for a vaccine to be developed, tested, and mass produced? You are trading deaths from disease for deaths due to economic downturn and its related effects.. better than fair chance you'd kill more people than just letting the virus spread slowly.
Belle you cant wipeout the virus it is virulent and we are an open economy and eventually have to reopen the borders. Best approach is immunity whether that is community inoculation or by vaccine. Do you want to wait for over one year for a vaccine and until there is one the govt will be worried that someone will die. Yes I have a lot of loved relatives I love and they love me and we take a more measured approach than a restrictive view. Question if we have one month lockdown would you allow tourists back afterwards
This virus was an obvious pandemic. It was so obvious I prepped. I didnt prep for Sars Mers or Swinflu. I did for the bird flu. And learnt from that. I learnt it has to be person to person easily. (Bf wasnt) It has to make people awfully sick and/or kill them at a rate worse than influenza. I am not brighter than most. So if I could see it why couldnt our leaders. We had a chance to stop it. Now we are stuck in limbo.
Yes we shut down all tourists. We have to anyway now. The rest of the world is so bad or will be so bad we cannot have them coming here. Now we are risking medical mayhem.
And this virus is an RNA bug. It can mutate easily. This virus may suddenly become more deadly. It may decide children are a better target. Or become harmless.
The rest of the world is pretty buggered. Financially. If you think this is over in a couple of months you are deluded. This is a depression now. Millions upon millions have just been laid off. China isnt over it. As Keith says South Korean numbers are on the rise again. Italy, 600 dead yesterday. And apparently they arent counting rest home numbers as they arent getting any treatment let alone testing. Spain is on the same trajectory. Uk....USA....
I guess to put it simply the world is burning. Financially and medically. We are just at the start of it. The virus has potential to become worse. There is no benefit to us trying to burn this disease out by becoming immune by fire. Financially the world is rooted anyway. Trillions are being poured into stock markets to stem the rout. Its not stemming the rout. NZers as usual think this doesnt apply to them. We are a dimwitted bunch.
No Houseworks I really dont want to change. But life as we know it has been changed for us FOR NOW. Take a look at the US. They are in panic mode this very minute. Their stocks have crashed worse than 1929. Millions are hitting the unemployment queues. This is worse than the GFC. We are in for the fight of our lives financially. International tourism is over and out for at least 2 years anyway.
Whats more important, lives or profit? In NZ it used to be lives but greed has taken over this land and alot of the greedy people just want more and more money. They actually make me sick. They would open borders to the virus so they can still get the tourist dollar even though lots of vunerable lives will be lost! Lots of King Midases running round NZ nowadays. I really hope they get burned by this new economic reality.
Disease and death go hand in hand. Medical professionals know that we limit the number of mortalities by giving people the flu jab for free but it doesnt stop death and what do you think used to happen before the flu jab was rolled out. If you want to stay home then your choice.
Houseworks you won't convince them to change their minds. They calling this a war, yet won't accept that war is full of casualties. Society sent our 18 to 28 year olds into battle last war, knowing thousands be killed and those return affected them rest of their lives. This time it's invisible enemy but society is again asking them to scarfice there jobs, hopes, livelyhoods for enemy not targeting them. So yes we need some balance as I think it's unfair that yet again they be the ones making the biggest scarfice.
Sorry, but that's ridiculous.
As well as the greedy parasites (no sympathy, for sure), a lot of good, productive businesses that employ people are going to sink.
Have you ever thought for a moment about the thousands of people who will lose their jobs? Just ordinary people.
There's going to be massive social impacts, and a lot of mental health issues.
If the odds of dying from SARS-covid-19 were the same as winning Lotto, you'd expect countries like Italy to have 15 deaths in total (assuming 100% of the population got infected too). You're either underestimating the virus or you're greatly overestimate your odds of winning lotto, either way your math skill may need work.
From the chancenotchoice.org.nz website "Your odds of winning first division (1 in 383,838) with a $7 ticket" There are over 50 infected and 150 expected by this time next week but no deaths yet, that's good odds. Today there will be 60 people told they have cancer. Tomorrow another 60 and everyday this week. That is over 400 people per week. Nobody mentions it or thinks about it.
Have a read of this article: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9…
I think you have your head up your ... They also have 60 million people mate and a lot of old people. I would rather live to 50 and make a difference than live to 100 by hanging on. And yes "no reason". Can you point to the high infection rate in nz. Nope. Can you point to the high nz mortality rate. Nope
Keiths article and the comments here are right on. From suggestions of immediate lockdown, to the sheer ignorance of so many, and the incompetence in letting the cruise industry carry on as per usual.
I was on a NZ cruise last year. Most of the passengers flew into Auckland from the UK, Asia and the USA. Border control would know the huge risk in allowing the continuation of this influx. This must have been detailed to our government. Short term thinking won.
Yesterday in another thread I implored the government for complete shutdown immediately. As Keith said short term pain now. Every day our chances of containment reduce dramatically.
They lost mbovis. I checked out the map of infected farms yesterday. Northland is riddled. This government lies. They say they are winning the battle with bovis. The map on their website says they are not. They were behind the play right from the start. Lied and obfuscated. Killed thousands of cattle and ruined lives and businesses to keep the lie going. Covid19 is a different beast to mbovis. We could have beaten this, it hasnt been here for years like bovis. But it requires an immediate shutdown and the harshest of measures. The government has been defeatest by not throwing everything at it in february. I think the battle has been lost now. We are the US, and Europe and Australia. We could have been Singapore.
I disagree Belle. If we shut down now and prevent all cases to zero... even for 6 months or a year or more... when we do eventually start to open up again the virus will run rampant. Jacinda's analogy is PERFECT. We need a series of small waves that our health and other systems can handle. Avoiding a tsunami is the only valid approach in this scenario.
You might be right IO. I was for shutdown last month. Personally I think we are too late now. I dont think it would have been wrong to wipe it out and keep ourselves clear of it until either a vax or better drugs were available. But you cannot tell me that allowing the inbound traffic that they have, with little to no follow up, is a good idea. Our government is behind the play. And being behind the play with this bug is being lost.
I guess this week we will see if I am right
A series of small waves.
The problem is that the analogy is more engaging than the reality. Small waves sound nice.
Come back to the virus reality. There are no small waves.
There is Italy, Iran Spain.
There is Sth Korea and Singapore.
And Sth Korea and Singapore have a lot of supporting resources and process/procedure activities.
Look at WHO, examine the activities they require behind the flatten the curve stop the curve message.
Examine exponential growth.
The defence force is currently working in a one day on one day off capacity, limiting the risk of everyone catching it at once, with non essential personal working from home. Ready to deploy when called upon. Any arresting will be done by the police who may work in tandem with the defence force.
On today's episode of Play School hosted by Jacinda Ardern. Hi Children and those with child-like minds. Remember yesterday when we looked through the round window. We saw level 2. Now today we will be looking through the square window. Wow look it's level 3. Do you know what level 3 means? Don't worry I will tell you again. But don't worry children. I will protect you. I have a special device with a screen that lets me see into the future. The future place is called Italy. I can't really tell how far in the future it is.No one can. But I am going to stop the bad future by reacting just a few days too slowly every time I need to make a critical decision.
Quite right.
-Close the stock exchange.
-Fix the NZ$ to the US$.
-Make mortgages 30% deposits, and 0% LVR on any secondary purchase ( you want 2 or more? Pay for them out of retained cash flow)
-Bring back Exchange Controls on imports and exports.
I could go on, but where do we stop in getting NZ ready for what the economy will look like after this is over.
All decisions are easy looking back.... What would you do today that the PM isn't and what will you say to 'us' if those suggestions are not needed, based on whatever you suggest will eventually cost? Are you ready for 80% PAYE tax rates to repay all the cost?
But what if they don't ( those relatives lives depend on speaking out)? I am quarantined with just such a person, so "I get it". But any Government action is only made on the basis of "What if...?". Should we be at Level 5 now? You tell me, and then tell me how much it's going to cost and how we repay it when it's all over. Do we spend the next 10, 25 or 100 years of New Zealand future economic output fighting this unknown event today? That is what the Government has to decide, based on a whole heap of unknowns.
bw - this might get to the point where people want their house in Auckland to remain being valued at $1mil while we close the country down for a year so that none of their family members get sick from the virus....I think this is how irrational people in NZ may have become.
It was obvious where this was going and she pissed around. She could not make the critical calls when they were needed despite the massive amount of information from other countries that this was going to esulate fast. Her management history is running turn to her form of the last two and a half years.
Was that was a conversation twist?
The here and now is Jacinda is in office.
What she needs to do is deliver, it's no secret that she has some seriously bad history in regards to this.
The time line so far.
Chill it's just the flu, I've got this, I'm still hugging people.
14 days isolation.
NZ'ers only.
We know the that the people flying in get a piece of paper, no temps, very little checks that they are self isolating.
She has created mistrust.
"Dont lock up the population because of failure to provide testing kits."
That's completely backwards. Government has done a bad thing and as a result the best response is to lock people down. It makes no sense to say "well the government screwed up once, so lets double-down on that screw up and make things worse".
Precisely because they didn't have enough test kits (and we're now testing more per capita than South Korea, btw) is why a lockdown would be necessary.
I'm completely against a general lockdown. The safe techniques including those safety measures in resthomes are more than adequate. If people choose to isolate for no reason that is their own choice. I have heard some people who arent sick and who haven't been overseas or in contact with anyone are doing isolation. That's the definition of stupid. No wonder that supermarket shelves got cleaned out.
I can understand why you'd be against it and that's fine. I personally don't think we need to go there just yet either (I'd keep schools open for the time being).
I'm just saying that your justification for why we shouldn't have a lockdown is backwards for the actual reason for why a lockdown would be necessary - a lockdown is a last resort to control spread of the virus and is necessary once other methods to control virus spread have failed (testing and contact tracing).
This article suggests that a lockdown of 3-7 weeks (NZ would surely be on the shorter end of this given our current cases) is what is necessary to get the situation under control: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9…
Lockdown can always be re-implemented if necessary.
I'm not convinced we should be shutting schools (and we have school holidays imminent anyway), but cafes, restaurants etc should be, and a ban on all social gatherings, simply because it is now clear that people simply can't or won't do what is necessary otherwise.
That is likely to have been specific to the spanish flu, rather than some general pattern common to pandemics. That unusual mortality spike for people in their 20-30s has not been seen in other flu strains since.
I don't know if there's a consensus as to why this happened, but one thing I saw is that the deadly form of the flu was self-selected by soldiers in the trenches. Those who got a mild version of the flu stayed in the trenches where they were. Those who got a more severe one were sent back to field hospitals, and then eventually back home, helping to ensure the deadly version was spread in a way that would otherwise not be.
Summary of the article: Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.
Belle, you need to stay at home from now, the risk is rocketing, every day matters. My daughter trained and works in this field, she has told us not to leave the farm and to lock the gates, she will know more than most. I just sent lambs to Works, early start, driver was worried this would be his last week at work. We really lost this one and it's going to scare the daylights out of people once we get a few deaths. It's going to be a long slow winter.
Please do not take any risks.
Thanks Aj, you just enforced a commitment I had made. I am nearly down to winter stock numbers. One load of cattle to the works this week. I will have to hang on to 60 lambs they just arent good enough yet. Might be slaughtering them and handing out the carcases at the gate way midwinter to the locals ;-)...lol if they dont help themselves first.
We are getting a little rain today. The pasture is moving a little in some paddocks. Heavy dews and cooler days the last five days.
Meat shelves in Countdown was empty so why ? Still greedy suppliers stockpiling because they don't want to drop the local price for lamb ? If exports have stopped we are going to be overrun with meat, how about slashing the prices for meat and dairy to help NZ get through this ?
Meat shelves empty because everybody is panic buying.. ditto with milk. Both are pretty daft, NZ is not going to run out of either, I'd be slightly more worried about meat, because skilled butchers are a bit harder to come by than milk tanker drivers (any old truck driver with a few brain cells can be trained up in not much time).
Agrihq had a good breakdown of previous droughts. They said this one was following (i think) 2008 in which winter store pricing never recovered. In fact it got worse. So if we get a burst of good growth I shall sit tight anyway. A lot of folk I know are expecting meat schedules to dramatically rise and have held stock, fed winter rations to them for this. I fully believe they are on a hiding to nothing there. If the world is in depression why would our meat be expensive. I see the futures for milk powder dropped last week. A lot. But mebe the dollar made up for it.
I think we will all have to accept a new reality. For instance
'Grain Markets
Oil is cheap and many consumers aren’t driving anywhere at all. Ethanol demand has plummeted, and ethanol futures stand at all-time lows. It’s likely that a lot less corn will be routed to gas tanks, leaving more for other uses. Corn is likely to remain cheap, even as the price of dried distillers grains climbs. This week corn futures touched multi-year lows. May corn settled at $3.4375 per bushel, more than 20ȼ lower than last Friday.
The soy complex moved higher. May soybeans closed at $8.625, up 17.75ȼ from last Friday. May soybean meal climbed $25.70 to $325.20 per ton. Soybean values have fallen far enough to attract some Chinese purchases, and those may accelerate in the near term as China tries to stay ahead of snarls in international trade. Last night an Argentine mayor closed the nation’s key grain port. It’s unclear if the port will remain closed given a national outcry, but fears of such closures are surely rippling through the global supply chain.'
And yes milk prices got hammered last week.
'Sales in the export-dependent milk powder market have come to a halt. Mexican buyers are on the sidelines. Driers have slowed nonfat dry milk (NDM) output, but product is still piling up. Eventually, Mexican milk powder merchants will need to refill their warehouses, but it’s hard to predict when that will be amidst a global pandemic and rapidly closing borders. While U.S. NDM appears to be on sale, it is quite a bit more expensive when priced in foreign currencies. The Mexican peso dropped to an all-time low against the dollar this week. Mexico’s purchasing power has fallen more than 24% since mid-February.'
Im going to keep trading lambs short, killing a 100 every week or two if possible. If not then who's knows what the future holds.
those cattle futures are traded in Chicago and I'm suspecting the packers have an eye on the potential for massive profit. My friends that farm cattle in States all sell to feed lots, I tried to talk them into grass fattening some but the idea that grass fed is better eludes them, so ingrained with grain fattened US beef being the best in the world, I say, oh, that's why cattle have beaks, to eat grain.
Monday 16th was the last day that MOH released any testing statistics. Since then they have just proclaimed how many tests they are doing each day. No results stats and especially no announcement of probable cases.
According to "bush telegraph" the Wairarapa case of community transmission that they desperately don't want to acknowledge as community transmission. First received a positive result on Tuesday. So that means they are either delaying the announcements. Or retesting to make sure and only announcing after the second test result is positive. Prudent I suppose. But it means that any positive results of the thousands of tests carried out for the rest of this week are yet to be announced. Remember the majority of the people being tested match the symptom profile and have a travel history. Boom.
I was specifically replying to the claim that they ministry of health is no longer reporting probable cases, when they are.
The rest of the comment was rumour, that the test result came back positive on Tuesday but wasn't reported by MoH until Saturday.
Neither of these *specific* points are relevant to statistics from overseas.
15 March 8 confirmed cases 2 probable cases 432 negative tests.
16 March 8 confirmed cases 2 probable cases 514 negative tests
21 March 6000 + tests? Mostly on recent arrivals or (their close contacts) from countries with community transmission. Showing symptoms of CV19.
But still only 2 probable cases. Relax everyone. They have this thing beaten.
Based on when people in my community knew there was a confirmed case vs when it got announced there is a 2 to 3 day between test confirmation and announcement. offical data as lag. Lag to get tested. Lag waiting for test to be performed. Lag to results.
Announcement lag. There is at least a week in all that.
50 cases announced. Probably means double that in real time with the lag.
Spoke to a nurse recently who described their preparation in some detail. Short story is dont need ICU care for anything else because there is sweet FA capacity and the care levels will drop. If someone crashes in hospital for whatever reason (e.g. child birth) its 2 min for emergency team to get PPE on if you have the virus and instead of 5-10 people rushing in to help its 2-3. I imagine shortages of blood supply starting to develop too.
Those are the facts:
You are the person behind Labor Chinese- sounding name count.
You are clearly here to push the party line .
Earlier today you have put yourself on record saying that most people are not smarter than a 4 year old and deserve to be talked to as such , by the way of explaining why Jacinda does exactly that.
I think the readers of your many posts deserve to have that perspective to be able to judge your impartiality and credibility for themselves.
LOL!
I assure you I am definitely not Rob Salmond (thank you for the compliment though), nor have I been particularly defending the government over their response to COVID-19. Just because you aren't dumping on the government doesn't mean you whole-heartedly support everything they are doing. Also I do vote Labour and Greens I'm not a member of any party, and I'd vote TOP if they actually had a chance of getting into parliament (catch-22).
Earlier today you have put yourself on record saying that most people are not smarter than a 4 year old and deserve to be talked to as such , by the way of explaining why Jacinda does exactly that.
No, I didn't say that. You have poor reading comprehension.
"This EXACTLY what you said. You are lying ."
No, you have poor reading comprehension.
What I said was:
1. The average person is not very smart.
2. Half of people are even less smart than that.
That is very different than what you have claimed I said:
1. Most people (ie, more than half) are less smart than a 4 year old
2. They deserve to be spoken to as if they're 4 year olds
Edit: hah, didn't even know that thread had been deleted. Anyway what I said is a George Carlin quote, you can google it.
Great .
Ed : seeing everyone agrees the post should be re-instated please do so . Failure to reinstate would lead to an inescapable conclusion of editorial bias.
If the posts violate any of the editorial policies please advise which ( I asked the question earlier today and received not response ) .
Over to you Ed.
Thank you .
Except you guys are the ones applying the spin. I've heard so much BS in the last few weeks about how it was already here and spreading in the community.. Except there hasn't been a flood of people into the ICU, there aren't bodies piling up.
Now we might actually have our first cases of community spread, and you bloody doomers are making it sound like the end of the world. It's not.
Yip.
Still within reach of control, assuming present positive cases are relatively indicative of what's going on.
There are always clusters of outbreaks with diseases, we saw it with measles and that's far more infectious than COVID-19 is. Clustered outbreaks will be stamped down hard when detected, the alert system very deliberately says it may be national, or restricted to a region or a city/town.
What we won't want is for cases to run away on us such that contact tracing becomes unmanageable, because that is our #1 line of defense right now.
Ok, I think I understand the extreme contradiction between precautionary action you would like to see taken and the number of deaths you are expecting. Action you would like to see taken is reasonable and fair and would go a long way to limiting the spread, but to expect 5000 deaths is not rational. 5000 deaths is also not a drop in the bucket, it would be a National catastrophe completely out of line with what has resulted overseas, even Italy who have proven to be the least prepared for this. It will not be anywhere near the total population that gets infected with this virus, look to a country like Norway to see where we are more likely to be heading. Norway currently 2263 infections with 7 deaths. Our situation will not be unchecked as is obviously the case by actions already been taken so 100,000 deaths is pure speculation and very unhelpful to a rational discussion. Check some of your own replies posted to others and apply it to your 100,000 scenario
Prag.
Two weeks ago I was a female dog, a female short and a whinger because I called for the airports to be closed. I replied that we'll talk in a month, guess we don't have to wait that month now. I was on the nail and you were well off the ball.
What the hell is it with your abuse?
FYI. I reported your comment. There is no place for bullies in NZ!
If this takes hold like Italy having a portfolio of houses won't buy you a ICU bed with trained staff. So lets stamp this out. https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/22-03-2020/siouxsie-wiles-toby-morris…
Next election vote for the party that funds health care.
i think we should ignore the carping criticism of keith and his new converts on here and suggest he gets in contact with fellow academics in countries with similar populations like denmark,norway,ireland and finland.they have many times more infections than NZ and a number of deaths recorded.maybe they would appreciate his input.
Here reality I work for one NZ biggest company, a lot workers are Frontline i.e not desk jockey. Executive put memo out, if you want self isolate you need take SL then your AL then 5 days SL in advance then AL in advance. Unions got involved Said no way you pay full with no entilments taken away. Company said no, so carry on if nothing happening. We wait to see if government going pay for this also.
I'm calling BS on your numbers.
I just copied the Auckland airport international arrivals board into excel and filtered. Before midnight there are 35 passenger flights arriving, and 12 cancelled. Add on the 4 other internationals that already landed and you get 39 flights between 8:30am and midnight.
No way that Welly, Chch and Queenstown somehow have the same number of international flights as Auckland. Perhaps you counted codeshares as seperate flights?
That should be 20,000 ankle bracelets and 20,000 hotel bedrooms (we have plenty available) with armed guard on hotel entrance. A fortnight later test and release. Hotels will be grateful for the income but would need to restrict servicing - just employ laundry staff and cleaners for hotel public areas.
News out of Italy overnight, over 700 dead in a single day.
I think that the conversation here should shift to projected numbers and when this will peak in NZ because it has not even started yet.
People are going to need a light at the end of the tunnel and a goal or challenge set in motion to aim for to beat this thing.
Pretty sure the PM doesn't do much she off touring the world for almost half the year. Given the state of the economy. Failure in education, transport and health services. Tell me what's positive, extra $25 a week for benificaries, yeah more booze. Going to start a distillery can't loose there.
Interesting to watch how many peoples political views have shifted from 'what is going to maximise the short term value of my house' to 'what is going to keep me alive'.
Question then becomes - were you being rational then, are you being rational now, or both? (if possible?)
300,000
Level 3 please....
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda759…
US was 2,500 last Sunday, today 25,000 that TEN TIMES in one week and they actually only started testing semi-seriously last Tuesday our time
The UK Government risks being left with no choice but to nationalise train networks as the financial pressure on the railways rises.....Infections jumped by almost 1,000 in a day to cross the 5,000 mark for the first time.....retired doctors and nurses sign up to help... millions of people could already be infected. Social-distancing measures may need to stay in place for most of the year...
(Variously from today's Telegraph)
Too many businesses in industries already with too many businesses ( How many Smiggles do we need in how many shopping malls?!) are going to fail and never get up off the canvass. They are going, and will be gone - permanently. What do all those displaced employees with no income and bugger all chance of re-employment do?
Answer is to ruthlessly prioritise what's actually important, and direct (with some forcefulness) people into the top priorities according to their capability/trainability/skills/location etc. Like we aren't gonna need tattooists, barista, RE, etc (it's a very, very long list) nearly as much as we need fruit pickers, animal hacker-uppers, truckies, mechanics who service trucks, security staff, etc. Food, shelter, transport, security. Plus medical. Them's the Priorities.
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