A review of things you need to know before you go home on Wednesday; more mortgage rate cuts, housing markets flat, dairy prices down, car sales plateau, commodity prices slip, swaps flatten, NZD lower

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Westpac has cut its 1 year fixed carded rate to 4.19%, matching most of its rivals. NZCU Baywide has also cut carded rates for terms of 6 months to 2 years, by between -15 to -25 bps.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
FE Investments has raised most rates. NZCU Baywide cut its 6 month TD rate by -5 bps to 3.35%.

HO-HUM HOUSING MARKETS
Quotable Value figures for the three months to September show the average value of homes is declining in Auckland, Christchurch and Queenstown, and rising more slowly in other centres. That is the fourth consecutive drop for Auckland. Barfoot & Thompson data for September also shows prices now haven't changed in more than two years. Listings are up however, suggesting more supply than demand in the Spring selling season now underway.

SINKING
Dairy prices fell at the latest dairy auction, making this the fourth decline in a row at these events.

HONG KONG WATCH
After yesterday's sharp decline of -2.4% on the Hong Kong stock exchange, we should note it opened today a further -1% lower. That is a -1000 point drop in five days (from an index of 28,000 on Wednesday, September 26). The Shanghai markets will be hoping there is a turnaround before they reopen next Monday after the Golden Week holiday. However, in the first few hours, today's market has risen, but not quite into positive territory yet..

PEAK CAR
We appear to have plateaued in the rate new cars are selling in New Zealand. September data shows annual sales at 108,776 which is very similar to the rate at the end of last year. Also stable is the share that SUVs are taking, dominant but holding at the low to mid 60%s. Sales of commercial vehicles also seem to have hit their peak, and one that used imports reached about a year ago.

NON-AUCKLAND GROWTH
ANZ job ads fell in the month of September from August, but are up +3.4% over the quarter. In annual terms, job ads were up +6% and that growth is faster than we saw in June. While this growth has lifted off its mid-year lows, it still points to softer employment growth than has recently been experienced. Auckland job ad growth has stalled, and all the gains are coming from other regions (except Christchurch). Wellington is starring in this data.

HIGH LEVERAGE
August data from the RBNZ shows that 49% of bank deposits ("non-market funding") are in term deposits of less than one year to maturity which is the highest level in five years. Another 45% are in at-call deposits. That means only less than 6% matures in one year or longer. Banks also have market funding (wholesale) and all up have a funding base of $431 bln supplied by depositors and the wholesale markets. That compares to the $40 bln the shareholders have at risk.

RETRENCHING
After reaching a peak in May, commodity prices have retreated since and were down again in the ANZ monitoring in September, in fact back to levels we started 2018 at so all the early gains have now been lost. Log prices are started to dip, and on top of falls for horticulture and aluminium, along with minor dips for meat and dairy, the overall track is down. Even the lower NZD isn't enough to stem the slip in local currency.

DECLINING DEMAND?
There was a noticeable lack of enthusiasm for today's LGFA bond tender that offered $210 mln in four maturities. But the overall coverage ratio was down to 1.8x from 2.3x last time and close to 3x the time before. Today the 2033 only got bid for the $50 mln offered. Yields achieved were similar to the previous tender.

PETROL PRICES RISING
And they are rising to record highs, but not driven by crude oil prices or the exchange rate. It is a story all about taxes. And it's regressive.

INTO REVERSE
In Australia, the number of home building permits fell -8.3% in August from July, led by a dramatic weakening in apartment approvals which were down more than -20%. Year-on-year to August things are worse because approvals of houses also declined.

SWAP RATES FALL, FLATTEN
Swap rates are in a bear flattening today. The two year is down -1 bps, the five year is down -2 bps, and the ten year is down -3 bps. The UST 10yr is lower and now just under 3.06%, with the UST 2-10 curve under +25 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 2.64% (down -5 bps), the China Govt 10yr is at 3.66% (unchanged given it is a holiday week there), while the NZ Govt 10 yr is at 2.62%, and down -3 bps. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 1.90%.

BITCOIN LITTLE CHANGED
The bitcoin price is marginally lower since this morning at US$6,515.

NZD SLIPS
The NZD is lower today at 65.9 USc. On the cross rates we are a little firmer at 91.7 AUc, and 56.8 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 down to 70.

This chart is animated here. For previous users, the animation process has been updated and works better now.