Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today:
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There were no changes today.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
FE Investments has launched a 5.18% 'special' one year offer in time for Chinese New Year. That involves a +18 bps rise from its prior rate. At the same time it has trimmed back all its longer rate offers. RaboDirect also cut rates for all terms, from -5 to -20 bps (the larger cuts were at the shorter end).
NEW YEAR, NEW CONFIDENCE I
ANZ reported that its Roy Morgan survey of consumer confidence lifted in January, breaking a run of three consecutive declines. Consumers are feeling good. Both the current and future conditions indexes increased. The current conditions index is at the highest levels since 2007. The stabilisation in the housing market and the fact uncertainty surrounding the election has waned have perhaps cleared the path for a strong labour market to support consumer sentiment.
NEW YEAR, NEW CONFIDENCE II
Car sales bounced back strongly in January. They were up +6.4% to 10,797 and the strongest growth in seven months. 58.5% were SUVs. Commercial vehicle sales were up almost +10% from the same month a year ago.
AUCKLAND BUCKS A DOWNWARD TREND
New dwelling consents are down in Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Canterbury, up in Auckland and Wellington in December 2017 compared with December 2016. In fact, Auckland bucked the national trend with apartments and house consents up over the period.
INFRASTRUCTURE UP
Non-housing consents issued in December were worth $485 mln in December. Infometrics reported that over the quarter, the value of non-residential building consents was up +5.7% from a year earlier, but this lift was driven by a strong increase in alterations and additions consents, with the value for new building down -5.1% over the same period. "Looking ahead, we anticipate further growth in non-residential building consents as firms expand to accommodate demand from the growing population."
RECORD VISITORS ARRIVE
For the first time ever we welcomed more than half a million visitor arrivals in one month. The new record is 513,349, +3.9% more than for December 2016. December is traditionally the peak travel month due to the Christmas and New Year holiday period. As Stats NZ observed, “The half million overseas visitors arriving in December is roughly equivalent to 55 Boeing 787 Dreamliners at full capacity landing every day during the month. The high point of the December month’s travel was the week leading up to Christmas, when 142,000 visitors arrived.” Large growth came from the USA which sent an additional +38,700 visitors. The UK was next with an additional +28,300. About +9,000 additional visitors arrived from each of Germany, China, Hong Kong and Korea. In terms of absolute numbers however, no-one comes close to the 1,472,000 visitors from Australia and that grew by +63,000.
MIGRATION LEVELS OFF HIGH
Net migration fell by nearly -7% in December 2017 compared to the same month the previous year but the annual net migration level is still up at +70,000. Interestingly, the December data shows a noticeable rise in the number of migrants heading for Hamilton, Tauranga and Wellington. Despite that, in 2017 more than 50% (+51.6%) settled in Auckland and that was up from 48.6% in 2016.
BENCHMARK INTEREST RATES RISING
Swap rates are rising today at the longer end. The two year is unchanged, but the five year is up +2 bps and the ten year is up +3 bps. Meanwhile the UST 10 yr has risen strongly this afternoon and is now at 2.78%, up +5 bps from this time yesterday. The Aussie 10 yr is at 2.81%, down -1 bp on yesterday. The Chinese 10 yr is at unchanged 3.95%, and the Kiwi 10 yr bond is 2.99, up +4 bps from yesterday. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged.
BITCOIN BELOW US$9,000
Bitcoin is now at US$8,640 in a major move down. That is a loss of US$1,450 in a day or a -14.3% drop. Ouch. In the good-old-days in mid December, this price was north of US$19,000.
NZ DOLLAR LITTLE CHANGED
After a run up over 74 USc the NZ dollar is now down at 73.7 USc - the same as it was at this time yesterday. The Kiwi is up to 92 AUc, and at 59 euro cents. This puts the TWI-5 at 74.4.
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5 Comments
Is Bitcoin's demise surprising? I suspect that the current trend has yet to bottom.
However, it has been interesting/entertaining watching its progress of Bitcoin over the past four months but sadly knowing for some that they still have not learnt the lessons of tulip mania.
It is sad that while some have made great money, this has been at the expense of others. I hope - be it in vain - that those in the later group haven't been too badly burnt.
Having said all that, Monday may see it back over $US10,000 but highly improbable.
Bitcoin currently at $8594.90 - people were irrational on the way up , they will most likely be irrational on the way down - that is the problem with any hype. As was pointed out to me the other day - if someone starts an argument about the merits of investing in shares v's property v's whatever they are most likely trying to sell you something. You choose your poison and you go from there.
EDIT : Now at $8637.70
Well the bottom is 0 considering it holds no real value. That will take a while as people hold on hoping it goes back up. It’s obviously not useful as a currency, and as a store of value it is all speculation. I imagine people will move to other cryptos or a proper investment.
Winston Peters has dropped the charges against two reporters , but is continuing to pursue high profile Gnats ( English , Bennett , Tolley et al ) for leaking the overpayment of his superannuation to the media ...
... he has paid the $ 18 000 back .... and , given that he is a very wealthy man , this is a paltry sum to him ...
Which makes it seem all the more remarkable that the Gnats should attempt to destroy his political career immediately prior to the last election ...
... they must've had a complete brain fade ... or been incredibly arrogant ... thinking that they could get over the 50 % threshold , and govern alone .... Gnats prats !
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