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A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; UDC and FE raise TD rates, QV says prices up but slowing, China expanse faster, house listings tight, Fisher leaving, swap rates inch up

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; UDC and FE raise TD rates, QV says prices up but slowing, China expanse faster, house listings tight, Fisher leaving, swap rates inch up

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today, so far.

DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
UDC have raised their six, nine and twelve month term deposit rates by +10, +10 and +5 bps respectively. (This follows their rating downgrade recently.) They also cut their call account by -10 bps to 1.95%. FE Investments cut their 6 month rate to 4%, but raised their 12 and 18 month rates to 6% and more.

+12.7% IS A SLOWING
Average house values are still rising but the rate of growth slowing says QV. The average value of a NZ home now $619,660, in Auckland it's $1,031,253. Wellington's housing market 'appears largely unaffected by the new LVR restrictions' according to QV.

AUSSIE PRICES UP BUT SLOWING
Something similar is going on in Australia. Australian capital city house prices climbed +7.5% over the past 12 months, a slight tick up from the annual rate of +7.1% in September. The monthly pace of growth decelerated in October, however, from +1.1% to a more sedate ½%.

CHINA ON THE UP
Chinese manufacturers signaled an improvement in growth at the start of the fourth quarter, with output expanding at the quickest rate in over 5½ years amid a rebound in new order growth. That's according to the unofficial Caixin PMI survey. Stronger demand appeared to be led by improved domestic orders, however, as the level of new export sales fell slightly over the month. Meanwhile, companies cut their staff numbers at the slowest pace in 17 months, while backlogs of work continued to accumulate. Inflationary pressures picked up sharply in October, with input cost inflation accelerating to its fastest since September 2011 and output charges rising to the greatest extent since February 2011. The official China PMI shows pretty much the same thing. As does the services survey.

LOW LISTING SUPPLY
We updated the realestate.co.nz supplied housing market inventory levels today and they now stand at 13.4 weeks, up marginally from 13.1 weeks in September. But some of the provincial detail is interesting. Its only 5.5 weeks in Wellington; its 12.5 weeks in Auckland, and 15.1 weeks in Canterbury. On the other side, its 24 weeks in Northland, 16 weeks in Taranaki, and 23 weeks in the Coromandel.

THE NAME TO LEAVE IN 2017
Carmel Fisher is leaving Fisher Funds. Fisher Funds is now 49% owned by TSB Bank, and she has announced her 'retirement' as managing director. She will remain as a director and shareholder.

+10% EXPECTED
All eyes tomorrow will be on the Global Dairy Trade auction early tomorrow. If the rise is not +10% for WMP, then the dairy derivatives market is giving useless futures signals. SMP prices are not showing anywhere near the gains of WMP.

WHOLESALE RATES RISE
There was a minor +1 bp across the board rise in swap rates today, except at the short end. Going the other way, the 90-day bank bill is down -1 bp to 2.13%. We have seen +3 to +4 bps yield gains (price drops) in NZGBs, mirrowing international markets.

NZ DOLLAR LITTLE CHANGED
The NZD/USD has changed little today. It is still at 71.7 USc. On the cross rates, it is trading at 94.2 AUc, and is at 65.4 euro cents. The TWI-5 is up at 76 mainly because of good gains against the GBP and the Japanese Yen. Check our real-time charts here.

You can now see an animation of this chart. Click on it, or click here.

Daily exchange rates

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End of day UTC
Source: CoinDesk

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4 Comments

CHINA ON THE UP - so is the O/N Shibor IRS curve - view graphic detail

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This is what REALLY is happening in America, via 'surprisingly Michael Moore.

He reiterates some of the points I made earlier.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKeYbEOSqYc

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Agreed, Moore is right on the money. Nationalism is a global phenomenon and Brexit was a precursor for what is to follow. Look to Europe next for more of the same. Globalism is on the retreat.

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Or should that be populism on the rise.

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