Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Westpac's 32 days Notice Saver was reduced to 0.6% pa, and TSB's term deposits also had rate reductions.
HOUSEHOLDS VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THEIR ECONOMIC FUTURE
Consumer confidence ain't in great shape. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index did not improve in September. The initial bounce out of lockdown has given way to wariness consistent with very subdued spending, says ANZ.
BLIND TO THE RISKS
But that is not showing up in the housing market - yet. Major Auckland realtor Barfoot & Thompson's September sales were the highest in five years, with record median and average prices. They are already ahead of last summer's peak.
DECISION TIME CLOSE NOW
You can compare the political party Lists, who ranks where, in our unique resource here.
IF YOU WANT TO GET BEHIND THE BEAUTY CONTEST ...
The campaigning is all about the Leaders and their personalities and personal qualities. But the parties do have policies too (believe it or not) and we have a comprehensive comparison resource here. Vote, vote early if you can, (but only vote once!).
NATIONAL'S PLAN TO REBUILD TOURISM
The National Party has unveiled its plan to "rebuild the tourism industry." The plan includes using its proposed Infrastructure Bank to work with local councils to build new infrastructure in the regions, supporting businesses and tourist operators through a $100 million Tourism Accelerator Fund, allowing travel bubbles with neighbouring Covid-free countries when safe to do so, implementing a national framework for freedom camping, supporting the TRENZ conference with $5 million for the next two years, and improving the collection of accommodation and tourism data.
NO NEW COVID CASES REPORTED
Director of Public Health Caroline McElnay says there are no new COVID-19 cases in New Zealand today. With 10 people having recovered, there are now 43 cases in quarantine with 11 having been community cases. No one is in hospital with COVID-19. There were 4,403 tests processed on Thursday. McElnay says New Zealanders overseas planning to head home should avoid social gatherings and crowded areas for 14 days before departure, avoid contact with people who have COVID-19 or who have been in contact with someone with COVID-19, and get a test if they have symptoms.
NEW FLIGHT CREW RULES
Under new rules to come in on Monday, overseas-based air crew who are laying over in New Zealand will be required to stay in a Government managed isolation facility for as long as they are in the country, to ensure they avoid contact with New Zealanders. And, all overseas-based air crew will be required to wear appropriate PPE while in New Zealand airports and whenever travelling between the airport and their hotel. Further, all New Zealand-based air crew will be required to use PPE on all flights and to isolate with other crew members while on overseas layovers. And finally, New Zealand-based crew returning to New Zealand from high-risk locations overseas will be required to self-isolate for at least 48 hours after they return, and until they are assessed as being low risk of having COVID-19 (including receiving a negative test).
UP FOR GRABS AGAIN
The current nine default KiwiSaver providers who were appointed in 2014 will have to reapply in an open tender basis. The winners of this evaluation will be appointed from December 2021. There are currently 589,000 people in a default KiwiSaver scheme, or 19% of all members.
REMOVING CREDIT CARD INCENTIVES
We have previously noted that ANZ has ended the 9.95% low rate Visa interest level, returning it to 12.90% for purchases and 19.95% for cash withdrawals. In addition, they have reduced the annual card fee, and removing some benefits, on their ANZ CashBack Visa Platinum and ANZ CashBack Visa Gold credit cards. They have reduced the annual fee to $80 and removed the complimentary Overseas Travel Insurance benefit (including Transport Accident Insurance for ANZ CashBack Visa Platinum). Also their are now no longer offering 0% commission on foreign cash purchases from ANZ branches for their ANZ CashBack Visa Platinum card.
CORE FUNDING REMAINS VERY HIGH
Despite the RBNZ reducing the Core Funding Ratio to just 50% from the start of April 2020, it continues at a very high level, up at 88.7% as at the end of August and almost matching its all-time high of 88.8% in April 2020 (and April 2018). A lower Core Funding Ratio standard is not being followed by banks yet.
CAR LOAN RATES CUT
Toyota Finance has reduced its rates to substantially, reducing their minimum "Classic / Choices" rate by -1.25% to 8.50% and the maximum by -2.25% to 12.0%. Rates for marine loans were reduced even more.
WATER UPDATE
Strong recent inflows into our hydro storage lakes has returned them to about normal levels for this time of year. But Auckland's water storage reservoirs are only abut 67% full when they should be 91% full at this time.
NORMALITY RESTORED
On Sunday night, much of Australia goes on daylight saving time, restoring the 2 hour time difference with New Zealand (but leaving Queensland behind, as usual).
AUSSIE RETAIL SALES SLIP AS EXPECTED
In Australia they released retail sales data for August today. Sales were down by a -4.0% annual rate from July, but were up +5.4% from the same month in 2019, broadly as expected as the Victorian lockdown took its toll.
DID YOU KNOW ...
New Caledonia is about to vote on Sunday (for a second time) in a referendum about independence from France.
GOLD PRICE LITTLE-CHANGED
The price of gold is now at US$1901 in early Asian trading, and up +US$13 from this time yesterday. But the current price is -US$5 less than the closing New York price. and that was +US$4 higher than the afternoon London fixing. Over the past week, gold has risen +2.0%.
EQUITIES UPDATE
On Wall Street, the S&P500 ended their session up +0.5% on expectations of new stimulus after some weak economic data overnight. The ASX200 is down -0.9% in late morning trade but the NZX50 Capital Index is unchanged in late afternoon trade. Shanghai and Hong Kong are closed for Autumn Festival/Golden Week. Tokyo is down -0.3% in early trade.
SWAP & BOND RATES SLIP
We don’t have the final data for today yet and if it is significant we will update it here. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged 0.29%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is down -3 bps at 0.86%. The China Govt ten year bond is unchanged at 3.16%. Meanwhile, the New Zealand Govt ten year is down -1 bp at 0.51% and almost matching the earlier RBNZ-recorded fix of 0.50% ( -2 bps). And the NZGB five year is not negative anymore and is now at +0.02% pa. The US Govt ten year is down -2 bps from this time yesterday at 0.67%.
NZD FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is marginally firmer this afternoon compared to this time yesterday, now at 66.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 92.6 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 56.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 is up marginally at 69.7.
BITCOIN DIPS
Bitcoin is lower by -2.0% today US$10,605. But over the past week, this crypto is virtually unchanged.
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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41 Comments
First, why on earth were some Air NZ flight crew returning to NZ and immediately hopping on domestic flights for so long without anything being done. Secondly, they should isolate for 14 days each and every time they return to NZ. The welfare of the country is far more important than allowing air crew to maintain their social lives.
CORE FUNDING REMAINS VERY HIGH
An alarming loan factor noted by RBNZ:
Total loans and advances increased from $455.4b as at end of July to $455.5b as at end of August 2020, while core funding increased from $402.8b to 403.8b during the same period. The annual growth rate in core funding was 5.7% in August, up from 4.9% in July.
In fact reported loan growth associated with core funding calculations as far back as April is basically flat.
I see breaking news that Trump is going into quarantine due to regular and close contact with a senior aide who has tested positive for Covid.
WH has the quick 15 minute test but still waiting for test results.
Will be interesting.
No reports of anybody being sighted heading to the drug store for some disinfectant. :)
Trump tests positive.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/427472/us-president-donald-trump-and-f…
I wouldn't be surprised if Trump was faking it to win voting support and to gain public sympathy. We all know that he's a pathological liar and he's losing badly in the election polls. Could also be a move to avoid further debates with Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden.
Though if he does have it, look what happened to Boris Johonson he was rushed in to hospital and put on a ventilator and he's 55 Trump is 74 and obese.
It was already going south for Trump. Bidens average lead in the 538 poll of polls was up to 8 % and rising. But the more important battleground states were swinging Bidens way too, now Georgia is even Bidens. Only Florida remains a tossup .
It may prvide an excuse for Trump to bow out , or more likely , be rolled, on health grounds of course.
It's irrelevant to half of the elderly population staring down poverty.
In an interview, economist Teresa Ghilarducci, a professor at The New School in New York City and one of the nation’s leading experts on retirement, told me that half—that’s right, half—of Americans aged 55 and up will retire in poverty or near poverty.
“Our data is showing that, because of the COVID recession, about 50% of workers over the age of 55 will be poor or near-poor adults when they reach 65,” she said. Link
Hardly a reflection of an exceptional, indispensable nation.
Things have changed since March.
Big Pharma casts a big shadow.
Peak Prosperity guy.
https://youtu.be/aSJRyYf01H8
Check the covid data.
sorry NSW and SA no deal
Speaking to media on Friday, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said this country is not yet ready to have quarantine-free travel with Australia.
“They have a very different strategy to us, and so they’re making that decision and that is their prerogative, but for now, we of course have to keep New Zealanders safe.”
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