Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank has raised its one year fixed rates by +10 bps. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
BETTER BUSINESS SENTIMENT
ANZ said it noticed a shift in opinion between its early July and late July responses to its business confidence survey. The later responses were more downbeat. Overall though, this survey's results show business confidence jumped back to levels more like those that prevailed between February 2024 and February 2026, before the US-Iran conflict. Inflation indicators were softer by -0.2% (to 3.15%) and pricing intentions fell 4 points to a net 47% expecting to raise their prices in the next three months. But the split responses noted on the timing of them pushed ANZ to headline the results: "ask me again next month".
AUTUMN SLUMP
New home volumes being completed in Auckland fell and are almost back to where they were four years ago before the recent residential construction boom. They slumped in the city over autumn.
WORKPLACE CULTURE
The regulator responsible for monitoring conduct and culture in the financial sector apparently has issues of its own. They issued this note today: "The FMA Board has recently become aware of cultural concerns at the FMA and is assessing the matters raised as a matter of urgency. Samantha Barrass is on a period of leave from today. During this time, board member Alastair Hercus will step into the role of interim Chief Executive."
ELEVATION
The RBNZ has a new role, a deputy Chair. Byron Pepper, who has been a Director of the RBNZ Board since 1 July 2022 and who has served as Chair of the Financial Policy Committee since its establishment and previously chaired the Financial Stability Oversight Committee, has been elevated to the role, under Chairman Roger Findlay.
FIVE YEARS OF EXCESS MISERY
In basic [popular] economics, "misery" is measured by tracking the sum of the inflation rate plus the jobless rate. It is rising by this measure, now its highest since mid-2023. In Australia the same tracking shows it peaked there in March and fell in June. The Aussie rate is lower than the NZ rate, meaning misery is less there than here. In fact it has been like that pretty consistently since 2021. It is unfortunate for us that it has been rising consistently since mid-2024.
NZX50 FALLS BACK
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -1.5% today, and down -0.2% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +2.6% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +7.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.6% so far today. Stride Property, Serko, Investore and Kathmandu have gained while Infratil, a2 Milk, Ryman and Scales lead the decliners
POPULAR AT A PRICE
Today's NZGB bond tender for $450 mln in three maturities attracted 103 bids worth $1.9 bln. That is high although not a record. The YTMs (yields to maturity) were +15 bps higher than at the prior equivalent tenders three weeks ago. Higher NZGB bond yields are consistent with higher net public debt as a share of GDP, which has been rising steadily since its recent low point just before the pandemic.
AUSSIE REAL ESTATE MARKET'S CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT
In Australia in a briefing released on the ASX, banking major NAB noted that their "total Australian home lending applications were 15% lower than the prior quarter".
RECOVERING?
Staying in Australia, they reported that the number of new dwellings consented rose +7.2% in June from May to 18,328 (up +8.9% from a year ago). Houses were up only +0.4% but other dwellings were up almost +18% from May, although that doesn't quite take them, back to year-ago levels despite this recent surge.
SWAP RATES FIRM
Wholesale swap rates may have risen today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.92% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +8 bps from yesterday at 4.98%. The China 10 year bond rate has held at 1.72%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +1 bp at 2.78% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.74%, and up +5 bps from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Wednesday rate down -7 bps at 4.65%.) The UST 10yr yield is up +8 bps at 4.69%.
EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The local equity market is sharply lower, down -1.4%. Meanwhile, the ASX200 is has fallen -0.6%. Tokyo has opened up +1.3%. Hong Kong is down a minor -0.1% but Shanghai is down -0.9% at its open today. Singapore is down -0.9% at its open. Wall Street was down -1.5% in Wednesday trade on the S&P500 with the Nasdaq down another -1.7%.
OIL PRICES UP
American oil prices have risen +US$1 on the latest flare-up in the Persian Gulf and from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark is now just on US$83.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just on US$89.50/bbl and up +US$2.
CARBON PRICE MARGINALLY FIRMER
There have been a few good sized trades so far today and the price has firmed slightly to $55.90/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMER
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$42/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4069/oz. Silver is now just on US$57.50/oz and little-changed from yesterday.
NZD UP
The Kiwi dollar is +30 bps firmer against the USD from this time yesterday, now at just on 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 83.5 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62 and up +30 bps.
BITCOIN FIRMS MODESTLY
The bitcoin price is now at US$64,090 and up +0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.1%.
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31 Comments
Interesting article about changes in China's ability to produce more domestic beef and and desire (and take concrete steps) to increase their food security
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/30/business/china-beef-imports-tariffs…
Food security is really the ability to be self-sufficient.
They have a desertification problem, and if they turn currently plant-food acreage into meat, their food return per acre reduces markedly.
So less self-sufficient.
That in turn introduces the temptation of feedlot or barn, call it what you will, intensive farming with resultant animal welfare challenges and associated hygiene risk. Given some of the publicity, during covid, of the let’s say feral nature of some menus , China certainly appears to have more than a fair share of folk in search of protein on a daily basis.
The feed needs to be grown somewhere.
And that requires acres.
Dots...
Exactly. A veritable chain reaction, but formed in a circle. Except it is not Ouroboros by any measure, at least in the ancient sense that is, and far from it. Obviously the momentum of the cycle requires to be fuelled and if any portion of that has to be imported then the notion of self balance is immediately defeated. Hence, speaking of snakes, my rider of temptation.
Not according to some sources, PDK.
China aims to restore ~6.7 million hectares of desertified land by 2030 which for context is ~25% of NZ's total land area.
It has already rehabilitated ~4.3 million hectares, and is halting the expansion of the Gobi and Taklamakan deserts via the Great Green Wall
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Green_Wall_(China)
Aims and has, are different words.
And stopping desertification at some forgotten barricade. Reversing? Maybe - but food and energy are the same equation; how much did they invest in the effort, for how much return.
It's all about EROEI
This is a long term investment, PDK, that could return huge generational multiples of the original cost.
Besides, it sounds like a much better idea to me than investing $trillions in killing one another like the Western forever-war economic model.
Agreed
"A record-high spread means one of two things is out of line. Either fuel is too expensive relative to crude, or crude is too cheap relative to fuel. Right now, it’s largely the former. Gas prices (US term for petrol) are up 98% in 2026 compared to a 44% increase in WTI crude oil."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/garthfriesen/2026/07/23/refining-stocks-so…
And Warsh talks tough on inflation at every available opportunity. But exactly what he’s prepared to do about it isn’t clear.
That jump in the 30-year Treasury yield to a near two-decade high tells us investors have heard enough – if the Fed won’t act, the market will.
It’s a reminder to Warsh, Aitken says, that Mr Market is a bully whose “innate nature is to create fear in those that don’t show enough fear … delivering a word salad gains no respect”.
Amen!
Winnie gone too far?
When the strategy is to overstep the mark what is too far?
When the strategy is to overstep the mark what is too far?
This is.
Been out further on a longer limb. The court thought so, the case of Cushing for instance. Yet he is still here and still will be post the next election. Not a question of right or wrong in reality because an answer in the latter sense has never been seen to curtail his political career. A survivor that knows how to survive. The record “res ipsa loquitor.”
He can go as far as he chooses because his party are nothing without him so he won't be sacked. I guess we will see what his voters think of it, I suspect a fair few will think it's great.
Farage thought similarly.
Perhaps we need a Binface Party. Something serious for a change.
Yes
Not a stretch for both Chris's to rule out NZF now. One goes the other one follows? National has more to gain.
Winnie gone too far?
Act did this last election, had a decent % gain then gave it all back , dumb and dumber...
Winnie is 81
I'll give you 6:4 on, that he doesn't last the next cycle.
I actually feel sorry for Luxon, he can't seem to catch a break. If NZF tank in the polls he's got another problem to worry about. And he has to distance himself from Peter's but not rule out a coalition with him. Tough job.
I don't feel sorry for him at all - & I used to work with him ~30 yrs ago when he was a keen young guy & knew he had a lot to learn.
He's failed to deliver much of what he was elected for, including an equal opportunity democracy. Worse, he & most of the other Nats are playing their usual "better economic managers" game when the evidence is not there. Without Brooke sorting out pay parity & holiday pay they'd be in a much deeper fiscal hole. Similarly Stanford dealing to the last 20yrs Education curriculum fiasco thats failed a generation.
Late in 1921, the magician requisitioned by a National Party in disarray, in desperate need of a leader, cast a spell, waved a cloak, reached into the requisite top hat, and pulled out a bunny. They have only themselves to blame. No matter how good anything is or isn’t, if the salesperson can’t deliver the goods, then no one buys.
What, Massey?
I though he was a tractor.
:)
Blimey. Well at least I didn’t witness that one. Self proof reading abysmal. Won’t edit & let the blunder stand for all to see.
Chuckle.
At least you got the hint
:)
Amidst all the woe - the possible end of the AI and Aotearoa / Aussie housing bubbles - one sector that is doing well that you probably won't hear about at your water cooler: Japanese regional bank stock prices.
Net profits are soaring and small Japanese banks are among the best-performing Asia-Pacific bank stocks.
Some stock price highlights:
Bank of Ryukyus (Okinawa): Year to date - +54%; Past 12 months: +134%
Keiyo Bank: Year to date - +59%; Past 12 months: +131%
Shikoku Bank: Year to date - +83%; Past 12 months: +165%
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vZJhTkJwgQ
Greed writ large
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