Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Liberty Financial cut all its mortgage rates, floating and fixed, by -50 bps. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank trimmed rates shorter than 1 year by -5 to -10 bps. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
FHB SHARE FADES
Latest figures from the Reserve Bank show that first home buyers continue to take a declining share of monthly mortgage advances, while the overall figures for February were down on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
WHAT'S MOTIVATING THE HIGH CHURN?
The latest RBNZ data, for February, shows that borrower penchants for changing banks is remaining high with one in four "new loans" (by value) happening because of a bank change. By volume it is one in eight, and near its series high. Interest rates may not be changing, but this market remains intensively competitive based on either a) borrower behaviour, or b) (more likely) broker churn. Long term market share data (RBNZ Dashboard) shows very minor net share changes between institutions, only noticeable over the very long term. So long as brokers deliver at least three good options to their clients, all is well with switching. But selective and opaque reasoning presented to borrowers is inherently problematic.
NZX UPDATE
The NZX50 gained +1.2% today, extending a +2.1% rise over the past five days but still down -1% for the month. Year-on-year, the index is now up +2.5%. F&P Healthcare, Ryman, Meridian, and Channel Infrastructure lead the gainers with Mercury, Kathmandu, Gentrack, and Contact the big decliners.
INFLATION EASES
In Australia, inflation seems to be easing slightly. Today's release of their monthly inflation indicator for February shows this index was unchanged from January, up 2.4% from a year ago, comfortably within the RBA's 1-3% range and the lowest level since November. Food prices moderated on soft rises in some key grocery items like bread (+2.3%) and dairy (-0.3%). Rents rose at their slowest rate since March 2023 at +5.5%, but other owner-occupier costs rose just +1.8%. The RBA probably won't cut at their next April 1 meeting, but one is on the cards for their May meeting, especially if the election precedes it.
SMALL RISE IN BURGLARY
Data out today in Australia shows that the proportion of households that were broken into rose from 1.8% in 2022-23 to 2.1% in 2023-24. That is one chance in 48 of a household break-in. If you know the equivalent New Zealand data, please record it in the comments below.
A RESTRAINED ELECTION BUDGET
Last evening, the Australian Government released its 2025/26 Federal Budget. In the shadow of security threats from both the US and China, they managed a ‘modest’ tax-cut bribe, and increased government spending, all to be financed by raising their borrowing levels, which it has to be said are low (at 44% in 2024. New Zealand is 39%. Japan 254%, Canada 108%. The USA 122%. China 83%. EU 87%. UK 95%.). There are no fiscal surplus prospects in the next ten years. Maybe one reason the Budget was restrained is that there is suddenly a chance the Government will be re-elected, helped by anti-Trump sentiment and the cozy relationship the opposition Liberal Party has with the US Republicans. (The Murdoch press has avoided running updates to its polls, a clear sign they are worried.) But the election date has not yet been announced.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.63% on Tuesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps at 4.51% today. The China 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 1.90%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 4.67% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.64% and down -1 bp. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.33% and down -1 bp from yesterday. Their 2yr is down -2 bps at 4.013%, so that positive curve is now at +32 bps.
EQUITIES FIRMER
The NZX50 is up +1.2% in late Wednesday trade and among the strongest of the markets we follow. The ASX200 is also up, by +0.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.4% in early Wednesday trade. Hong Kong is up +0.9%, while Shanghai is up +0.3% at its open. Singapore has also opened up +0.3%. On Wall Street, the S&P500 ended its Tuesday with a minor +0.2% gain, all policy news that seems a bit shallow.
OIL HOLDS
The oil price is little-changed from this time yesterday and now just over US$69/bbl in the US, and just over US$73/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE SLIPS YET AGAIN
The carbon price is down -$1 today at NZ$57/NZU. In between, it got down as low as $54/NZU. There are many sellers and the few buyers aren't in any hurry. We make that its lowest level since August 2024. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMISH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$11 from yesterday, now at US$3024/oz.
NZD LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at 57.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are now at 91 AUc and unchanged. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 53.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is just under 67 and up +10 bps from yesterday at this time.
BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is up +0.8% from this time yesterday, now at US$87,870. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.
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20 Comments
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$11 from yesterday, now at US$3024/oz.
A few days ago there was a good comment related to the manipulation of the silver price. We know that central bank buying has been driving gold and wrestling control from the Western cartel, but given that silver is not on the CBs shopping list, JPM can continue with their shenanigans.
But what I thought was interesting was zooming out a little. Gold vs silver price increases are almost the same year to date and over past 12 months. But if you go back over 5 years, it seems silver is outperforming gold quite strongly.
Silver (CFDs USD) +134%
XAUUSD + 86%
The decline in the carbon price is remarkable.
There is the old saying that 'what goes up must come down'. But in this case, what goes down must go up.
The only proviso on that is if the Government changes the fundamental rules of the ETS, then indeed all bets would be off. The current selling price seems to be telling us that some holders of carbon units must think this is going to happen
KeithW
The speed with which this is all happening probably has some folk left-behind, but exponential growth hitting its limits was always going to be sudden.
All nations will abandon 'paying for carbon', as none can afford to 'pay' for itself from here on in, let alone its pollution. The EROEI of modern society has descended to a point where maintenance is increasingly in competition with new, therefore triage will increase. Abstracts will vanish first - and paying for pollution is compensating future people. That's an abstract.
But rapidly the abstracts will be deleted - and then the real will be triaged. Poor first, and thinkers second. Can't have the latter - hence the school curriculum dumbing-down. This is a doomed System throwing everything under the bus in an attempt to stay functioning - which it can't.
We'll probably be in a global war, probably by 2030, and ironically, producing the last of the carbon-pulse in the process. Unaccounted, of course.
So Canadians boycotting US bourbons, including the mighty Jim Beam.
What they probably don't mention is that Jim Beam is owned by Suntory, a Japanese company.
https://www.courier-journal.com/story/money/2025/02/03/what-kentucky-bo…
The job losses will be in Kentucky though, if they eventuate.
Just another innocent company caught in the crossfire of this trade war.
Many Canadians aren't boycotting anything. They're just not buying things because they're cash strapped and looking for the cheapest products available, thanks to the actions of their own ruling elite.
Suspect many Americans are not lining up for 'Net Zero by Nature' grass-fed beef from Aotearoa either.
Yeah, not everyone will boycott. But many are, and many more will simply buy an alternative that isn't affected by an additional 25% tariff. Others will simply find that their local liquor store isn't stocking US goods any more.
If you want an indicator of Canadian sentiment, take a look at the next Prime Minister market on Polymarket - huge swing to the incumbents since Trump started playing silly buggers with his closest ally.
If you want an indicator of Canadian sentiment, take a look at the next Prime Minister market on Polymarket
Yes. I take notice of PolyMarket for sure. And see similar patterns to when bets on Harris were strong. Everything turned on a dime in the weeks up to the election.
Yeah, this time everything turned on a dime when Trump gave Trudeau the perfect stage to present a unifying front, and distract from his unpopular policies with his impressive rhetoric and sounding like a decent human.
Meanwhile the opposition had been setting himself up as somewhat Trumpesque, and for a lot of Canadians that's suddenly off the menu.
When they though line up for a Big Mac or whatever chances are a percentage of the meat will contain NZ (or other import) beef. That is because the domestic grain fed beef out turns too fatty and requires leaner beef to be blended with it. NZ as such has had an established and well regarded supply for over sixty years. But yes, that American consumer couldn’t give a toss if the beef in question was Net Zero or not, just so long as the quality was up to expectations. We do have a penchant in this country of trying to insert our self proclaimed ideals into matters where they are actually of very little consequence
'Net zero' for beef is fundamentally a marketing gimmick for beef that is grown on properties that have the good fortune to have other farm activities, typically trees, that net sequester greenhouse gases. These trees would typically be eligible for the ETS and hence eligible to earn carbon units. The beef itself is not 'net zero' for greenhouse gases.
KeithW
I was wondering how you taught some cows not to fart.
Its like drinking beer, outsourcing exercise, and claiming to that the adventure is calorie neutral.
The methane issue relates to burps and not farts.
The production of methane is nature's way of efficiently getting rid of the hydrogen produced in the digestion of grasses in the ruminant stomach.
If you or I were to try to live on a diet of grass we would first of all get a very sore stomach and then we would wither away.
Currently there are no technologies to stop the methane production. However, higher producing well-fed animals produce less methane per unit of output (milk and meat) than lower producing animals.
KeithW.
There have been more than one certified net zero sheep and beef farm chuck it in and planted the farm up for the carbon scam. Being net zero didn't make them any more profitable despite what the net zero marketeers tell you.
New homes for sale in the US now at their highest since December 2007 - peak before subprime kicked in. Of course, homebuilders have to keep building and selling to stay in business. And up until 2008, the US had a record 2 million working-aged Americans joining the labor force.
What is the NZX a measure of?
Actually?
And windmills drop to 2.38% of capacity. Good for milling grain back in the day but that is about it.
https://www.transpower.co.nz/system-operator/live-system-and-market-dat…
telling
Power Generation(as at) 26 Mar 2025 19:00
Battery 1 MW
Co-Gen 55 MW
Coal 230 MW
Gas 818 MW
Geothermal 1084 MW
Hydro 2845 MW
Diesel/Oil 0 MW
Solar 2 MW
Wind 33 MW
Wind and solar only work at the level of the 24/7 system if either:
a) there is a supply such as hydro (but not geothermal) that can be turned on and off at the push of a digital switch; or
b) large scale batteries can be built into the system at a low cost per KWh of storage.
KeithW
So currently they dont work well in our existing system adding to instability and higher prices.
And in a drought that might continue we should be running our coal/gas fired plants as hard as possible to conserve hydro
and building or refurbishing coal and gas units which we will need into the future
Despite PDK's doom and gloom message that its all over -
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