A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; more retail rate cuts, terms of trade surges, house buyers market stronger, non-performing housing loans rise, good KiwiSaver returns, swaps soft, NZX50 soft, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
TSB cut its fixed rates today. Simplicity also cut its member-only floating rate, now to 4.95%. And both the Heretaunga Building Society, and the Police Credit Union cut fixed rates. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
TSB and Rabobank cut TD rates. AMP and Heartland also cut rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

RURAL EXPORT PRICES SHINE
Soaring dairy, beef and lamb prices are seeing exports surge. Statistics NZ says our terms of trade rose +3.1% in the December quarter from the prior quarter as export price gains outstripped import price increases. Year on year it was up a spectacular +13.6%, the most in more than eleven years.

A NON-PERFORMING SURGE
Latest RBNZ figures show non-performing housing loans rose +$165 mln in January - the biggest monthly surge since June 2020 during the pandemic.

MORE STOCK, LOWER PRICES
The real estate buyers' market continued in February with stock for sale at a 10-year high. House buyers were spoiled for choice in February with stock for sale up +13.6% and average asking prices down -4.6% year-on-year

CLEAR, CONCISE & RELEVANT
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DIPPING IN DEEPER
There were a record amount of KiwiSaver withdrawals in January according to the latest IRD data. Of the $143.3 mln withdrawn in the month, 2,490 people withdrew $110 mln for home ownership (average $44,200), and 3,900 people withdrew $33.2 mln because of financial hardship (average $8,200 each). The FHB withdrawal average is a record high, but the hardship withdrawal average is its lowest in eight months.

KIWISAVER HITS ITS STRIDE
But withdrawals are now only making a tiny dent in total KiwiSaver balances which have now reached a record $127 bln, up more than +$10 bln from this time last year or a rise of almost +19%. The proportion of KiwiSaver funds invested in New Zealand is now 40.1%, the lowest share ever. Overall KiwiSaver balances rose +$20.1 bln in 2024, but $10.7 bln was from member contributions. So a crude measure of overall fund performance suggests an after-tax after fees return of +8.8% - which you have to say is pretty good.

MORE COIN MINTING
The RBNZ didn't mint any coins in 2023, but in 2024 it minted more than 22 mln 10c coins (but no others). You have to wonder why. The value of the miniting was $2.2 mln. Wonder what it cost to have those made?

NZX UPDATE
The NZX50 is down -0.6% today as at 3pm, unchanged in a week. Tower, Manawa Energy, Oceania , and SkyTV lead today's gainers with The Warehouse, EBOS, Fletcher, and Kiwi Property Group topping the decliners

ANOTHER PROFILE UPDATE
Vista Group's (VGL, #34) 2024 annual results are in and we have updated their profile, which you can find here. They had their smallest loss in five years on record revenues. They also are holding their smallest cash reserves in five years.

FEEDBACK SOUGHT
Auckland Council released its 2025/26 Annual Plan and is seeking citizen feedback. This one is for the second year of their 2024/2034 Long Term Plan.

DUMPING BANK DEBT FOR LISTED DEBT
Property for Industry (PFI, #27) today said it is looking for new debt funding. It said it is seeking up to $150 mln via an unrated but listed 5½ year, senior secured fixed rate bond issue. "The proceeds of the offer will be used to repay existing bank debt facilities and for general corporate purposes."

THE TIME HAS COME
The integrated horticulture business of T&G Global said they are on the cusp of realising the sustained strong profitability they have been changing for a long time now. Their annual result to December 2024 was another loss, this time of -$10 mln after tac, but much less than the -$47 mln in 2023.

AN EARLY SIGNAL?
In something of a surprise, the TD-Melbourne Institute tracking of inflation and cost of living in Australia reported a -0.2% drop in February from the prior month, after a +0.1% rise in January. Most thought a rise was on the cards. But on an annual basis inflation is still running in the 2-3% range.

AUSSIE JOB ADS SOFT
Also turning negative in February from January was the job ad series from ANZ/Indeed. It was down -1.4% from January, but at lease it wasn't down the -6.9% it was in February 2023 from January 2024.

CALM BEFORE THE STORM I
There were a wide set of early factory PMIs for a number of Asian economies and they all showed very little change (and only minor variations around the expansion/contraction fulcrum). This includes reports for Japan (49.0), Malaysia (49.7), Thailand (50.6), Vietnam (49.2) and Taiwan (51.5). The tariff war impact are yet to hit. In fact, Indonesia was a bit of an outlier, recording a very good rise (53.6), but it enabled the overall ASEAN group to record a good rise.

CALM BEFORE THE STORM II
The official China factory PMI came in at 50.2, an improvement for February from January's contraction. This was backed up by the independent Caixin factory PMI which came in with a slightly faster expansion (50.8) in its survey. This is consistent with the US import data for January and suggests the US import data will be very high again in February.

SWAP RATES LOWER AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates could be quite a bit bit lower today on negative global trends, but keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.76% on Friday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 4.38%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.79%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 4.61% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.51% and down -7 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.25% and up +3 bps from Saturday. Their 2yr is unchanged at 4.02%, so that positive curve is steeper at +23 bps.

EQUITIES MOSTLY HIGHER, EXCEPT THE NZX50
The NZX50 is down -0.6$ in late Monday trade. However the ASX200 is up +0.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +1.0% in early Monday trade. Hong Kong is up +1.5%, and Shanghai is up +0.4% its open. Singapore has also opened up +0.2%. Wall Street futures indicate that the S&P500 will open tomorrow up +0.2%..

OIL FIRMS
The oil price is up +50 USc, now just on US$70.50/bbl in the US, and over US$73.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE STILL IN RANGE
The carbon price is still within its range, at NZ$63/NZU on light volumes. The next release of units at the official auction is on March 19, 2025. But that auction's floor price is $68/NZU, so it is heading for a failure. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMS
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$14, now at US$2871/oz.

NZD SOFT
The Kiwi dollar has held at 56.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 90.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 53.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is just over 66 and down -10 bps from yesterday.

BITCOIN JUMPS ON US POLICY
The bitcoin price is up almost +8% from this time Saturday, now at US$93,221. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been extreme at just on +/- 5.3%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».