Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. So far, no other bank has responded to the ASB cuts. Update: ANZ has now cut too. More here. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Bank of India trimmed some short rates today. Update: ANZ has cut more popular TD rates now too. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
ONE WAY LOWER
There was no Christmas joy for NZ's services sector. According to the BNZ-BusinessNZ PSI, activity in the services sector contracted further in December, matching a more contractionary performance in the month from the manufacturing sector as well.
A GOOD PUFF TO END 2024
Monthly retail spending figures ended the year on a stronger footing however after much weakness in spending throughout 2024, their fifth straight monthly rise. But still, year-on-year retail sales were -1.0% lower in December than in December 2023. For all of 2024, retail sales using electronic cards was -2.1% less than for all of 2023. If it wasn't for that November-to-December final momentum rise there would have been little to talk up in 2024 on the retail front.
FEWER JOBS ON OFFER
SEEK said its December job ad levels fell from November and were -down 22% compared to December 2023.
POSITIVE MILK FLOWS
DCANZ data now shows calendar 2024 milk flows were +1.4% higher than in 2023. The December 2024 flow was its highest for a December month since 2020. With a drier January than expected, perhaps this will limit the dairy season gain, but with the peak of the milk curve well and truly passed, any variance is likely to be small for the full 2024/25 season.
EYES ON DAIRY PRICES
Tomorrow, not only do we get the Q4-2024 CPI update (where little-change from Q3 is expected), we also get another full Global Dairy Trade auction. It is shaping up to be a good one with futures pricing suggesting WMP will be up +2.5% from last week's Pulse event, and SMP up more than +5% on the same basis.
EYES ON REINZ
The REINZ says they will release their December results at 9am tomorrow.
NZX50 DIPS
Here are the key changes to know about in the New Zealand equity market. As at 3pm, overall prices are down a minor -0.1% with Kathmandu, Vulcan Steel, Vista Group, and F&P Healthcare lead today's gainers as Tourism Holdings, Hallenstein, Contact, and Vector all decline
"THE PEOPLE" HOLD THE PEOPLE DOWN
In China, they are increasingly concerned about "social stability" and are preparing for a muscular crackdown if there are any protests during the imminent Spring Festival/CNY period.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today, but keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -2 bps on Monday at 4.06%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -8 bps at 4.48%. The China 10 year bond rate has risen +1 bp to just on 1.67%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -7 bps at 4.76% while today's RBNZ fix was 4.71% and down -5 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.55% and down -8 bps from where we were this time yesterday. Their 2yr is down -4 bps to just on 4.24%, so that positive curve is now at +31 bps.
EQUITIES QUITE MIXED
The NZX50 has dipped -0.1% in late trade today. But the ASX200 is up +0.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Tuesday trade down -0.1%. Hong Kong is up +0.3% and Shanghai is down -0.4%. Singapore is down -0.6% at its open. It is both MLKing Birthday and Inauguration Day in the US, and most markets there are closed.
OIL DIPS
The oil price is down -US$1.50 from this time yesterday at just on US$76.50/bbl in the US, and now just under US$80/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE FIRMS
The carbon price is up +50 NZc at NZ$63.50/NZU. The best you can say is that it is 'holding' because it really isn't going anywhere. The next release of units at the official auction is on March 19, 2025. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RISES
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$17 from this morning, now at US$2715/oz.
NZD FIRMS AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar has risen +40 bps from this time yesterday, now at 56.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 90.5 AUc. And against the euro we are unchanged at 54.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 67.1 and up +30 bps from yesterday.
BITCOIN VOLATILE
The bitcoin price has moved up to US$101,743 and and up +1.6% from this time yesterday. But in between it was up at US$108,248 but has fallen sharply since. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been very high at just on +/- 4.5%.
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106 Comments
Apologies for a bit of a tangent concerning equities but someone might be able to answer this re my my modest holding in ANHBC - ANZ preference shares. Quarterly dividend notated on NZX and Computershare as paid 18.01.2025. Now that being a Saturday I reasonably expected the credit yesterday 20th. But no it was not actioned until today seemingly because the 20th was the Wellington Anniversary Day. Yet the NZX was operating and so were all interbank transactions. Had thought delayed crediting would only occur when falling on weekends and/or public holidays so this one has me stumped.
Computershare replied with the Wellington Anniversary as being the reason. Have responded questioning this again because that is not a national holiday. Have also emailed NZX but no reply yet. All rather intriguing. The toast always falls on the buttered side doesn’t it.
Computershare Limited is a publicly listed company. Founded in 1978 in Aussie and likes to claim it's a global leader in transfer agency, employee equity plans, and stakeholder communications.
Customers have reported overcharging for transactions, with fees significantly higher than those charged by other brokerages. For example, a $25 service fee was noted for liquidating stocks, which is considered excessive compared to typical fees of around $0.50 at other firms.
The verification process for account access has been criticized as overly complicated. Users have described experiences where minor errors in personal information led to account lockouts, requiring lengthy procedures to regain access.
There are complaints about untimely execution of trades and delays in receiving funds after transactions. Some users reported waiting over a week for checks to arrive after stock sales, which is significantly longer than industry standards.
Via Tarric Brooker about the disconnect between incomes and house prices in Aussie, since the ABS Wage Price Index began in 1997, housing prices have risen by 483%, wages have risen by 127.5%.
In Q3 1997 the benchmark owner occupier variable rate was 6.7%, only 0.5% higher than today's actual payable rates.
I can see a problem here. Don't expect to see any similar analysis related to Aotearoa in Granny or other parts of the MSM / bank commentaries.
Hey David ! ... can we seat you next to Kim Dotcom when you're extradited to the US to face a comeuppance for your anti-Trump rhetoric ? ...
... strap yourselves in , folks .... the next 4 years promise to be a wild & exciting ride ...
Sugar on your porridge , Mr Chaston ?
What's the quote, "when someone shows you who they are, believe them"?
David believes in very successful economic ideals like free markets, free trade, etc. He’s entitled to believe in those if he wants
I guess we may see what happens when you abandon them (although unlikely as Trump will probably not implement half of what he campaigned on).
Still shorting Treasuries.
"I've been doing this for 49 years, and we're probably going from the most anti-business administration to the opposite. We do a lot of talking to CEOs and companies on the ground. And I'd say CEOs are somewhere between relieved and giddy. So we're a believer in animal spirits".
- Stanley Druckemiller
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/20/stanley-druckenmiller-says-animal-spiri…
"For most people his existence and role as President will mean diddly squat."
This is true.
Most people will get poorer while the billionaires get richer.
That's a good thing?
Does it mean "diddly squat"? Somehow I think not.
Sharpen your guillotines people. (And if you don't have one, stand by, my IPO will go public soon.)
I totally agree. I accidentally left TV1 on (after watching the Chase) & listened to the anti- Trump comments. I had to switch off as the media should be there to inform, not shove their views down our throats. Trump won the popular vote. If we value democracy, we need to sit on the sidelines and keep our opinions to ourselves.
The media are left-wing so it kind of makes sense. Not only that, they are increasingly becoming irrelevant because of that bias. Remember, not a single "main-stream" media outlet was picking a Trump victory yet his victory was overwhelming. Why would anyone pay for that quality of journalism?
Not sure about US media, but I find NZ media to flip flop arbitrarily (there are the stalwarts like Hosking that never would). Remember all the grief Labour we’re getting over crime, education, cost of living, etc before the election, now that seems to have all gone away. The election prior to that, the media were labours best mate.
Remember, not a single "main-stream" media outlet was picking a Trump victory yet his victory was overwhelming. Why would anyone pay for that quality of journalism?
Most of the political experts use dodgy panels for their polling. Not worth the time or effort. The degenerates on Polymarket were far more accurate in understanding. Traditional polls showed a much tighter race, often within the margin of error. For ex, Nate Silver's simulations indicated that Harris had a substantial chance of winning, contradicting Polymarket's predictions.
The prediction market's ability to reflect market sentiment—where bettors risk money based on their beliefs—was cited as a reason for its perceived accuracy over polls, which are based on surveys and opinions.
https://www.uc.edu/news/articles/2024/12/election-results-show-potentia…
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/539482/joe-biden-issues-preemptive-par…
I saw this coming, now they are free to tell the truth about Fauci, its not going to be pretty.
We have not even started with getting to the bottom on the origins of Covid. Personally I have a pretty good idea what happened but we are unlikely to ever get confirmation. They love to label you as a conspiracy theorist but that's just a diversion. One thing is for certain, a few people out there know exactly what happened, but will it ever see the light of day.
We just need to "flatten the curve", remember that!! Nek Minnit, locking NZ citizens out of the country for 2 years and running a raffle for quarrantine slots. Parent dies, too bad - some Kiwi on holiday to Fiji needs it. I am your single source of truth.
What a total cluster that all was. She went full Mao.
The quarantine worked though, just one person sneaking through could have kept us in lockdown or restrictions for months. I don’t remember people complaining when we were Covid free had live sport events while the rest of the world were in and out of lockdowns and restrictions.
Cool story and only cost $120 billion to the unborn kiwis, lost kids education, throwing out the NZ Bill of Rights, a PMship and a cushy job at Otago.
"...the 17 more vulnerable countries (those with per capita nominal GDP < $30,000, Gini > 0.35 for income inequality and/or ≥2.5% of their population living in poverty) had very high excess deaths compared with 2017–2019, while the other 17 less vulnerable countries had deaths during 2020–2023 that were comparable to 2017–2019."
Variability in excess deaths across countries with different vulnerability during 2020–2023
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2309557120
No learning loss in Sweden during the pandemic: Evidence from primary school reading assessments
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0883035522000891
but will it ever see the light of day.
I believe it will, but unfortunately a lot of people will choose to bury their heads in the sand anyway.
It's like debating a young-earth creationist. It doesn't matter how much evidence there is to the contrary; the earth is no more than 2000 years old, and anyone who claims otherwise is a heritic.
I thought it pretty certain to be a lab leak. That type of gain of function experimentation was not permitted in the US - so the work they wanted done was contracted out to China. What's the big deal? This type of GoF research was done across multiple labs across multiple countries. No conspiracy theory needed.
This article might give people an idea
EcoHealth Alliance, the nonprofit that Dr. Anthony Fauci used to offshore risky gain-of-function research 6 months before the Obama administration banned it, has finally been cut off by the US Government - along with its former president, Peter Daszak, for a period of five years following scrutiny over its work in Wuhan, China ahead of the Covid-19 pandemic.
...
"Given that a lab-related incident involving gain-of-function research is the most likely origin of COVID-19, EcoHealth and its former President should never again receive a single cent from the U.S. taxpayer," Comer continued.
DGM flowing thick and fast out of Aussie at the moment.
Australian insolvency appointments surge in six months to December as hospitality businesses collapse
Business failures have surged by 50 per cent this financial year as elevated operating expenses coupled with cost of living pressures and an aggressive crackdown on unpaid debt by the tax office force companies to close.
Last year’s record high of 11,053 is expected to be smashed over coming months, with insolvency appointments forecast to reach up to 16,000 this financial year, even if the Reserve Bank cuts interest rates.
Via The Australian (paywalled)
Hate to tell you but stuff and herald are not the home of financial reporting anymore..... that tat is produced in Manilla and is largely international news published 2 days late so its cheaper to buy, and a few cat up tree stories.
I just turned on through TV channels, TV1-3 we have the block Aussie, rich house poor house and a Master Chief, turned back off, tho may watch some sport, the only reason I have Sky.
the herald and stuff, both full of crap, Guardian ok but way to leftie for me...
I may have to finally suck it up and buy an AFR Sub.
One could argue that banks are front footing the Feb expected 25-50 points, due to not much new biz and insane competition, I suspect there books are reducing due to repayments rather then increasing due to new lending... no one like shrinking profits.
Sales are very low and I also suspect some are cashback shopping
they will be giving the 25 points now not may will be rolling off as not many people settle houses in January ... therefore limited hit
mortgages tend to be locked to settlement dates in general, people like to move in before xmas, nothing is purchased in late dec or jan as we are all on the beach
Roy Morgan poll update for December. Quite a different picture from last weeks Curia poll.
"Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for December 2024 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 51.5% (up 7.5% points) and clearly ahead of the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 44% (down 6.5% points).
For the National-led Government there were increases for all three coalition parties led by National, up 2.5% points to 31% and joined by ACT, up 4% points to 13% and NZ First, up 1% point to 7.5%. This is the highest level of support for ACT since the 2023 New Zealand Election."
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9813-nz-national-voting-intention-de…
I expected this. But the public are now fixated on the economy. Its a case of performance and results or we hold the right to vote differently. My issue is I see changing deck chairs but no articulate vision.
I see their only play is foreign investment and I am already looking for a Chinese speaking real estate agent. $5mil here we come.
Even my partner who has visions for this place says $5 mil, take it, we can relocate to Cambridge and get bigger place for 3mil and bank the difference.
The RM link has the margin of error table at the bottom. IIRC the Curia poll also claimed 3%.
As I've previously mentioned, over the last year the RM response breakdown shows the demographics that consistently support the Coalition are everyone except child bearing age women (18-49).
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