Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Liberty Financial has cut -50 bps from its floating home loan rate, to 7.65%. And it has taken the same amount off its 1, 2 and 3 year fixed rates. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Southern Cross partners trimmed their P2P rate to 7.15%. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
WELLINGTON ON HOLIDAY
First, for those that had missed it, today is Wellington Anniversary day. Updates from the Capital today have been few.
CHINA DISAPPOINTS, MEAT TRADE SHIFTS
Meat processors are losing interest in the China market, accentuated by the low prices there and some local oversupply. They are shifting product to better paying markets and at this time Europe is favoured. And that is helped because their local producers are bring less to market even as demand stays firm. US markets are taking more beef too on strong demand.
MIA
In 2024 the REINZ released its December 2023 data on January 18. In 2023, it was on the same January 18. So it is fair to say they are later this year. We don't have any indication of a release date yet, but it should be 'soon'.
NZX50 DIPS
Here are the key changes to know about in the New Zealand equity market. As at 3pm, overall prices are -0.4% lower for the NZX50. Oceania, Hallensteins, Investore, and Spark lead the gainers with Kathmandu, Precinct, Vector, and Kiwi Property the main decliners.
JAPANESE MANUFACTURING RECOVERY
Japanese released machinery order data today for November and that brought a much stronger result than expected. Excluding volatile items like ships and power companies, they rose +9.5% from the same month a year ago to a nine month high. And for the first time in more than a year, that propelled the annual levels to a small +1.2% gain. The recent strength comes on top of a good result for October as well.
HOLDING LOW
China held its loan prime rates unchanged today at its January review. The one year LPR, the benchmark for most corporate and household loans, remains at a record low 3.10% and their 5 year, the benchmark for mortgages, stays at a record low 3.60%.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today, but keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged on Friday at 4.08%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps at 4.56%. The China 10 year bond rate has risen +2 bps to just on 1.66%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +8 bps at 4.83% while today's RBNZ fix was 4.76% and up +3 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.63% and up +1 bp from where we opened this morning. Their 2yr is up +2 bps to just on 4.28%, so that positive curve is now at +34 bps.
EQUITIES QUITE MIXED
The NZX50 has fallen -0.4% in late trade today. But the ASX200 is up +0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Monday trade back up +1.5%. Hong Kong is also up +1.5% and Shanghai is up +0.6%. Singapore is down -0.3% at its open. Futures markets are suggesting that Wall Street will open up +0.5% on the S&P500 when it reopens for Monday trade tomorrow.
OIL HOLDS
The oil price is marginally firmer from this morning but really still just on US$78/bbl in the US, and now just under US$81/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE FIRMS
The carbon price is up +50 NZc at NZ$63.50/NZU. The best you can say is that it is 'holding' because it really isn't going anywhere. The next release of units at the official auction is on March 19, 2025. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD EASES MARGINALLY
In early Asian trade, gold is down minor -US$5 from this morning, now at US$2697/oz.
NZD FIRMS SLIGHTLY
The Kiwi dollar has risen +10 bps from this morning, now at 56 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.2 AUc. And against the euro we are unchanged at 54.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 66.8 and up +10 bps to start the week.
BITCOIN RETREATS
The bitcoin price has moved down to US$100,168 and and down -4.3% from where we opened this morning. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.4%.
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32 Comments
Also remember, the tradfi industry will be rudely awakened and terrified of what's happening. It destroys their narratives among many people, particularly younger demogs. In many ways, they only have themselves to blame, despite being bailed out before and relying on the taxpayers for an implicit guarantee for them to shoulder the risk while tradfi gets to clip tickets and make out like bandits
If it wasnt a circus act actually buying and securing crypto maybe more folk might play crypto ... I will be watching Xrp because like millions of others Im not interested in buying a cold wallet or paying 17% on a transaction at an ATM kiosk or masking my ip address or trusting some other org to store my data ... or sending my ID to where ever for verification, someone needs to come up with 'off the shelf'... Folk want easy peasy...not complicated and snakey... One would think the industry would know this by now . Make it easy and my guess is the crypto market will expand exponentially .... I see the potential (the world is full of folk that like to take a punt) I can buy a lotto ticket that could win me millions without jumping thru hoops but wanna get some crypto just to see how it goes...nope its just to complicated.... Maybe the TAB could come do something with crypto .... lol my 10 cents
The REINZ data will be late as they are very busy polishing up a turd called “December 2024 data” in order to make it look and sound better than it actually is. The REINZ are so predictable in terms of never wanting to admit the truth which is the NZ housing market is surely but steadily reversing in terms of volumes sold and prices achieved.
Ex Agent, what is really up with your fascination with thinking that house prices are dropping?
Have you really not got anything better to do but talk rubbish?
If you are talking about the North Island market then state that!
Otherwise you are talking baloney as not all markets are dropping at all!
I can assure you that ChCh has once again started strongly with huge numbers viewing homes and they are selling.
The pot calling the kettle black I think. You are obviously so insecure about poor old Christchurch. ( and rightfully so) you have this pathetic need to talk it up. So much that many of us on this site do not believe whatever you say about your so called investment properties. People who are comfortable about themselves do not need to talk themselves up.
Polymarket suggesting increased probability that Trump will make BTC a strategic reserve asset in first 100 days.
https://polymarket.com/markets?_q=bitcoin+strategic+resee
Think of Bitcoin as a digital commodity that there will only ever be 21m units of. You can hold this commodity yourself with no counter party risk, you can teleport it around the world to anyone you like instantly with no middle man, and no one can make more of them. There are over 50,000,000 millionaires in the world, and that number will only ever increase as fiat is endlessly printed to devalue the excess debt run up by incompetent government that has no accountability.
Now when you take a hard capped supply, and divide that by an ever increasing denominator or fiat units, the price in fiat currency will only ever increase.
We will not go back to a gold reserve, so when fiat currencies continue to collapse and at an increasing rate, what will people flee to to preserve their purchasing power?
yes the traditional assets like land/real estate, stocks, gold/jewelry, art work, Pokémon cards, whiskey etc will increase, but we live in a digital world now days and you can carry a million dollars worth around with you on your phone if you want to.
You can pack up and leave the country will all your assets in your pocket.
It has a lot of value, but why does the government need it? Because they are the ones printing the money, they too need some way to maintain some purchasing power relative to the rest of the world. When other countries such as Russia and China are using Bitcoin to trade, and then a few others join them, America will also need some to when the USD is no longer accepted, or in Russias case they cant access the SWIFT network.
Its all just game theory playing out. And As soon as one government starts printing their worthless fiat currency to acquire it, others will have to as well.
https://unchained.com/blog/bitcoin-obsoletes-all-other-money/ awesome series or articles and now a book.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2025/01/08/the-game-theory-…
Understand that argument but would suggest that in such an anarchic future the currency will not be BTC (or any other crypto) but rather lead, copper and gunpowder (i.e. force)....anarchy does not provide the order required to either support nor enforce such systems.
I would expect the current hegemon would know that better than anyone....it would be interesting to discover how many US law makers have been aquiring BTC of late.
How many Satoshis per Bitcoin? 100M?
21M x 100M = 2.1 quadrillion? Or roughly 8x the world's current supply in $USD?
I remain unconvinced that bitcoin and it's derivatives are anything other than a pyramid scheme rewarding those who jumped in first [handsomely too, if the gamble pays off].
What happens to block chain if we run out of excess energy to support it ( how does it's ongoing energy cost compare to fiat)?
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