Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ has trimmed some short term deposit rates. See this review. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
ON THE UPSIDE NOW?
Business sentiment has risen to its highest level since 2021 despite weak demand in the Christmas quarter. The NZIER business survey has turned positive for first time in almost four years.
STILL DOWN, & MORE SLUGGISH
But in Auckland, residential building activity is increasingly sluggish, with fewer homes are being built and they are taking longer on average to be completed.
BETTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
StatsNZ released its updated national dwelling tenure estimates today, the first time they have revised these since the 2023 Census. And that showed that there were [slightly] more owner-occupied dwellings and [slightly] less rented dwellings. The home ownership level is now 66.8% and back to levels first reached in 2005. In between, home ownership fell to as low as 64.5% in 2017. Perhaps a small downside is that the December level is down from 67.5% which was its recent peak in early 2023. More here.
GROCERY PRICE PRESSURE NOW TAME
We get our first indication of December inflation Thursday morning with the Selected Price Indexes, basically food prices. And the full December CPI is due out Wednesday week. However today, Infometrics released its Foodstuffs index of grocery costs for December, and those were up +2.2% from a year ago. The pace of supplier cost increases was up slightly, but not materially. A year ago these increases were running at a +4.5% rate.
EYES ON MILK POWDER PRICES
Meanwhile it will be worth keeping an eye on tomorrow morning's dairy Pulse auction for WMP and SMP. The NZX futures market is suggesting that the small GDT fall last week will get extended tomorrow (-1.5%). But the small SMP rise at the last full GDT auction will get a boost (+3.5%). We will know soon enough as we will update this change with the actual results in tomorrow morning's briefing.
STILL IN AN END OF YEAR HOLE
After slipping in December, the Westpac consumer sentiment survey for Australia slipped again in January. Homeowners and renters got more pessimistic about current conditions. But they are better than year-ago levels. And their forward looking views are positive.
ZOMBIE STAGGER
A sidebar update for once highflying Evergrande Property development company; A PRC court has ruled it must make payments it hasn't the resources to make. And a Hong Kong court has ordered its liquidation. The next saga will be the legal proceedings against its auditor PwC by the liquidator.
RAMPING UP FOR CHINESE NEW YEAR
In China we should note that today is the start of their enormous internal migration. January 14 is the kickoff of their Spring Festival travel rush, as workers begin to head home for the long vacation over the Lunar New Year. The Golden Week holiday around this event formally starts on January 28 and runs until February 4.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates rose in a way that we should keep an eye on. are probably little-changed again today at the short end. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -3 bps on Monday at 4.09%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 4.68% after yesterday's sharp run-up. The China 10 year bond rate has risen another +2 bps to just on 1.66%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +10 bps at 4.87% while today's RBNZ fix was 4.75% and up +5 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.77% and unchanged from yesterday. Their 2yr is also unchanged at just on 4.38%, so that positive curve has held at +39 bps.
EQUITIES IN RETREAT
The NZX50 has risen +0.3% in late trade today. And the ASX200 is up +0.2% in afternoon trade. However, Tokyo has opened its Tuesday trade down -1.3%. Hong Kong is up +0.8% and Shanghai is up +0.9%. Singapore is down -0.2% at its open. Wall Street ended its Monday session up a minor +0.2% on the S&P500 in Monday trade..
OIL MOVES LITTLE
The oil price is up +50 USc from yesterday, now just over US$78.50/bbl in the US, and still just on US$81/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE RISES
The carbon price has risen today by +$1.35 to NZ$63.35/NZU and a five week high. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint. And we should probably note that the EU carbon price is now at €74.85 (NZ$137.60) and back near its highest since May 2024.
GOLD SOFTER
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$20 from this time yesterday, now at US$2668/oz.
NZD FIRMS
The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from this morning, now at 56.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 90.6 AUc. And against the euro we are up +30 bps at 54.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 67.1 and up +40 bps from where we were this time yesterday.
BITCOIN UP MARGINALLY
The bitcoin price has inched up to US$94,816 and up +0.6% from where we were this time yesterday. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.0%.
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80 Comments
Lower land prices. Don Brash has the solution:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/don-brash-council-driven-land-prices-hurt…
I have given up arguing about this with people at work. They're always like 'bbbbbut upzoning, look it worked'. Yes, it did, but only because you had cheap credit, rising land and house values, real wage increases, and confidence that all of the above would continue for a few years. The market only builds just enough houses when the stars align.
And yet this time - you ignore all the work that "government policy wonks and economists" put into successfully changing our absurd zoning rules that only served to dramatically increase dwelling prices? ... Some consistency is appropriate, HM. You've been exceptionally good when your remarks are well considered. I feel that one was a FB response?
Made me chuckle, Jfoe.
" The market only builds just enough houses when the stars align. "
Two questions:
1. How do you explain the massive overbuild in the 70s and recently? (Rhetorical question obviously: we need only look to the f'ck up that counts for sage 'monetary policy' in NZ as delivered by our RBNZ.)
2. Why would you expect the 'market' do anything else? If there's no demonstrable demand, the market doesn't do jack. To do otherwise is speculation (see 1 above). Only sensible governments look forward far. Private money only enters for the 'quick buck'.
(But then I expect you already know this. I'm posting for others that may not.)
"Why would you ever want to "encourage the market to overbuild"?"
Low house prices help people who live in cars, need employment location flexibility and/or want to have a family. Density/stupid house prices kill procreation - a torpedo below water line for the pension system. Grey beards reaping what they sowed.
HouseMouse : "And house prices need to start rising again"
Do they? Or do wages and salaries just need to catch up to flatlining dwelling prices?
Methinks the later would be best for NZ.
Your opinion appreciated.
HM: "but…. Will it happen? I am not so sure"
In NZ, that depends on how you and others vote.
(In other countries, e.g. USA, it doesn't matter how they vote. The outcome remains the same. NZ's collapse could precede the USA's. Seems extreme to say so. But hey, you read it here first.)
Not Auckland Council - that's for sure !!!
They asked me to sign an agreement for a Deemed Permitted Activity. It contains the clauses:
- A fee will be charged on application of this application
- Additional charges for processing, administration and inspections need to be paid
- etc.....
Now lets be clear, these f'ckers have the Building Consent plans in front of them. Why not provide a price? This Building Consent application is about as simple as they get.
There is NO way I'm signing such a b.s. opened ended agreement that allows any wally desk jockey at Council to pad their time sheets.
And I suspect it is against the law for Council to present such a demand for something so straightforward WITHOUT A PRICE.
Why not provide a price?
Because their exposure to a cost over-run isn't worth your piece of mind to them.
And I suspect it is against the law for Council to present such a demand for something so straightforward WITHOUT A PRICE.
They can potentially be demanded to present you with their rates and an guestimate, but I don't think there's a legal requirement for any entity to provide you with a fixed price for something you want carried out.
The alternative is a really high fixed price with plenty of overhead for contingencies.
Why petrol prices could soon top $3 a litre.
Funny that. Like I've said for ages ... And as I said at the time: can't tell you when exactly, but it would be inevitable.
(The NZD will claw back over the next few years, but not to where it was. We're poorer. You voted for this. Get over it.)
Depends on who you mean by "we". Not everyone will be poorer: for eg those whose productive exports are paying for everyones imports will be better off.
"Beef and Lamb Alliance Group global sales director James McWilliam said it was positive news for exporters after two very long and challenging years for the industry.
"What this means for the industry is the red meat sector returns about nine to 10 billion (dollars) to the New Zealand economy on an annualised basis and about 90-95 percent of that is exported."
The US was one of the largest the New Zealand market traded into, he said."
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/538897/more-pain-at-the-petrol-pump…
"Beef and Lamb Alliance Group global sales director James McWilliam said it was positive news for exporters after two very long and challenging years for the industry.
Silver Firms Farms went into the US with the 'Net Zero by Nature' climate-washing campaign for its 100% grass-fed beef products. This initiative aims to produce carbon-neutral meat by utilizing natural carbon sequestration on the farms where the animals are raised. OK.
Happy, shiny, eco-lovin' Aotearoa.
But are Americans so naive and do they buy into this kind of 'woke' marketing? Serious questions to explore. And based on SFF's financial performance, probably not.
Sharp comments JC & regrettably on the mark. Reminiscent of the Steinlager ads years ago. An eighteen wheeler in the middle of the mid west or similar, emblazoned with “STEINLAGER” and under the caption of “They Are Drinking Our Beer Here.” As Gareth Morgan said. “Who gives a toss.” NZ too often is inclined to get above the reality of its station. A great percentage of consumers in the USA have never heard of us. It’s a hard sell and holier than thou marketing is hardly beneficial.
Marketing is an interesting thing. Finding the right narrative to your product is usually where one starts. In the present situation SSF are pretty much on to it. As far as financial performance goes well take a look back at all meat processing companies. Not much there to look at that would inspire. Obviously there are the global giants but they are in another league.
Well you go through a milt of milk powder and Moozlee (very cool name for a product) and you need to be setup but yes that's an option, you can find for less then $500 but as I say you spend it anyway... if you have the grass IMHO later is easier and less hassle.
My mate found a few for $300 each but I had to drop another $150 on each to get them to grass only. They will be great beef though
Yeah seems all so very easy to rear calves does it not. The reality is there are so many things that can go wrong, bloat from milk powder is just one. Alright so you just want a couple or so for one self, that usually works out. But try 50 or more. And there are some who do hundreds, there are always losses and the profits are slim.
Often, too often, the fat was over used in fish and chip shops and produced an odour redolent of livestock yards. Call it dripping, lard, tallow or whatever, it happened. Always remember a cartoon in the old Daily Mail (delivered in batches out here, known colloquially as The Yellow Peril.) Husband greeting very over sized mother in law knocking at the door, outside in the rain pelting down. “Oh mother in law, you are not fat, you are dripping.” Every ones a gem!
There were no fatties because we cycled to school, then we ran about the sports field for a whole hour at lunch and then cycled home again. Probably 2 hours a day minimum exercise plus sport during the weekend, sports training after school on top of that. No cell phones, no devices. The college owned like 6 Apple IIe computers total.
Yep footy before school, the lunch hour& after school. Teams picked in order of the arrivals., We had great underweight teams by grade. Some of us played senior and one of us got to play for Canterbury. You had to be fit to compete, otherwise you suffered. Never lost the application.
"The college owned like 6 Apple IIe computers total."
Lucky you. My college owned none.
Thankfully, we had a cool teacher who helped us build our own using bespoke kit utilising a discount on bulk ordered parts. We donated to the school when we were done.
tis i: "We got ZX81s" Yup. Used my paper round money to buy a 2nd hand one. The 16kb ram plugins were absolutely required to do much with them.
Funny that. Like I've said for ages ... And as I said at the time: can't tell you when exactly, but it would be inevitable.
A prediction that almost no one would disagree with.
Eventually, a McDonalds Cheeseburger will be $20. You heard it here first kids, don't say I didn't warn you.
This could become interesting ...
‘We’ve got foreign interference laws’: Australian PM asks Elon Musk to stay away
By warning the billionaires in advance, they gain the ground to penalise them ... before the election.
So China just became the first country in history to record a trade surplus of USD1 trillion.
Closer to home, was privy to data re this that is not so good. In terms of trade volume with each country, Aussie and Germany exports to China were the worst - both down approx 10% yoy. Probably not a great indicator of Aussie commodity export strength and likely has some impact on the domestic economy.
Winners of trade with China were Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan, and South Korea.
Source is not available via a public link. Available to me via a proprietary platform. Not everything is freely available. Nevertheless, the data sources I referenced are likely to be available if you're prepared to search for it.
Anyway, exports to China from Aussie down 10% yoy. Imports to Aussie from China down 4.2%. Combined vol down 8.1%. Original post perhaps a little misleading.
China is pumping, the West continues to try and shut them down and all the West does is pump out a negative PR campaign. The Trump reign of the next 4 years will be interesting, during this time China will go past the USA in terms of trade. The timing couldn't be worse, Trump is the worlds worst poor loser.
Just for comparative purposes for the Aotearoa Ponzi, check out what's going on in Toronto. Their proposed 2025 budget includes a 6.9 per cent property tax hike. But let's give this a little perspective. This is on top off the following:
2023 property tax hike: 7%
2024 property tax hike:9.5%
2025 proposed property tax hike: 6.9%
That means the equivalent of a 24% increase since 2023.
Who's better off: Toronto-ites or Aotearoans?
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/mayor-olivia-chow-launches-2025-toront…
Having asked, he runs a mile and hides. Then asks you to precis it for him. Which he won't read. Then accuses you of being ignorant.
But seems to claim the right to pontificate...
I had to read that again ...
... and again ...
... and again ...
But yes. PDK wrote it.
And PDK is a person that posts neo-religious content about global warming and NEVER summarizes as anything else except to say ....
... Prepare for the Rapture ....
Nah.
All good.
PDK needs a hug - the Rapture has him in a funk.
K.W. and some others need hugs to encourage them out of their FB/SM bubbles.
Me? No hugs required. Fighting B.S. has been my career. And still is. (You have no idea!)
I couldn't much care about the fools that post here.
But some are learning. A precious few. And this makes me hopeful. And happy.
And a very few are absolute gems.
The great articles (free of billionaire influence!), and the gem posters, are the reasons for being here.
And if my caustic comments make people think - maybe that's good too.
Fighting B.S. has been my career. And still is. (You have no idea!)
So your job, which pays you hundreds of dollars an hour, and allows you to afford to own multiple rental properties, involves dealing with BS?
I'm getting a pretty good idea.
And if my caustic comments make people think - maybe that's good too.
If that were actually something you genuinely valued, you'd find a way to communicate, without having to be caustic. Instead it's caustic first, insight second.
Awesomely witty ad hominem
Advice isn't an ad hominem. If you're smelling so much shit everywhere, it's probably on your foot. You could really do with some external assistance, to give you some other perspective or mindstate than the one you're lost in. Some people do this from their own volition, some have it happen by accident, others need extra nudging.
Not sure what all the FB taunts are about either, as if one form of social media isn't as divorced from reality as another.
Interesting story from Sydney. Someone bought land with the equivalent size of 25 football fields above Northern Beaches for a paltry $2m. Sold to a mystery buyer.
Like buying Bitcoin at <USD5K perhaps? Methinks it's more related to the Game of Mates.
What’s the scam? The agent described it as ‘affordable’, which is something of an understatement as the views stretch from the golf course on Long Reef headland down to Manly. The photo is a bit misleading though, as much of the land, formerly owned by NSW Aboriginal Land Council, is on the steep hill above Brookvale oval.
https://michaelwest.com.au/big-sydney-beach-view-plot-sells-for-two-mil…
Quote of the year so far comes from Jack Mallers on Jamie Dimon's latest attack on the ol' rat poison.
"What do I think about Jeffrey Epstein's banker being concerned that a distributed decentralized open public money could be used for bad things sitting on a ski resort in Davos? I don't really care. I don't know why anyone cares."
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