Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ has trimmed some short term deposit rates. See this review. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
ON THE UPSIDE NOW?
Business sentiment has risen to its highest level since 2021 despite weak demand in the Christmas quarter. The NZIER business survey has turned positive for first time in almost four years.
STILL DOWN, & MORE SLUGGISH
But in Auckland, residential building activity is increasingly sluggish, with fewer homes are being built and they are taking longer on average to be completed.
BETTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
StatsNZ released its updated national dwelling tenure estimates today, the first time they have revised these since the 2023 Census. And that showed that there were [slightly] more owner-occupied dwellings and [slightly] less rented dwellings. The home ownership level is now 66.8% and back to levels first reached in 2005. In between, home ownership fell to as low as 64.5% in 2017. Perhaps a small downside is that the December level is down from 67.5% which was its recent peak in early 2023. More here.
GROCERY PRICE PRESSURE NOW TAME
We get our first indication of December inflation Thursday morning with the Selected Price Indexes, basically food prices. And the full December CPI is due out Wednesday week. However today, Infometrics released its Foodstuffs index of grocery costs for December, and those were up +2.2% from a year ago. The pace of supplier cost increases was up slightly, but not materially. A year ago these increases were running at a +4.5% rate.
EYES ON MILK POWDER PRICES
Meanwhile it will be worth keeping an eye on tomorrow morning's dairy Pulse auction for WMP and SMP. The NZX futures market is suggesting that the small GDT fall last week will get extended tomorrow (-1.5%). But the small SMP rise at the last full GDT auction will get a boost (+3.5%). We will know soon enough as we will update this change with the actual results in tomorrow morning's briefing.
STILL IN AN END OF YEAR HOLE
After slipping in December, the Westpac consumer sentiment survey for Australia slipped again in January. Homeowners and renters got more pessimistic about current conditions. But they are better than year-ago levels. And their forward looking views are positive.
ZOMBIE STAGGER
A sidebar update for once highflying Evergrande Property development company; A PRC court has ruled it must make payments it hasn't the resources to make. And a Hong Kong court has ordered its liquidation. The next saga will be the legal proceedings against its auditor PwC by the liquidator.
RAMPING UP FOR CHINESE NEW YEAR
In China we should note that today is the start of their enormous internal migration. January 14 is the kickoff of their Spring Festival travel rush, as workers begin to head home for the long vacation over the Lunar New Year. The Golden Week holiday around this event formally starts on January 28 and runs until February 4.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates rose in a way that we should keep an eye on. are probably little-changed again today at the short end. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -3 bps on Monday at 4.09%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 4.68% after yesterday's sharp run-up. The China 10 year bond rate has risen another +2 bps to just on 1.66%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +10 bps at 4.87% while today's RBNZ fix was 4.75% and up +5 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.77% and unchanged from yesterday. Their 2yr is also unchanged at just on 4.38%, so that positive curve has held at +39 bps.
EQUITIES IN RETREAT
The NZX50 has risen +0.3% in late trade today. And the ASX200 is up +0.2% in afternoon trade. However, Tokyo has opened its Tuesday trade down -1.3%. Hong Kong is up +0.8% and Shanghai is up +0.9%. Singapore is down -0.2% at its open. Wall Street ended its Monday session up a minor +0.2% on the S&P500 in Monday trade..
OIL MOVES LITTLE
The oil price is up +50 USc from yesterday, now just over US$78.50/bbl in the US, and still just on US$81/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE RISES
The carbon price has risen today by +$1.35 to NZ$63.35/NZU and a five week high. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint. And we should probably note that the EU carbon price is now at €74.85 (NZ$137.60) and back near its highest since May 2024.
GOLD SOFTER
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$20 from this time yesterday, now at US$2668/oz.
NZD FIRMS
The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from this morning, now at 56.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 90.6 AUc. And against the euro we are up +30 bps at 54.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 67.1 and up +40 bps from where we were this time yesterday.
BITCOIN UP MARGINALLY
The bitcoin price has inched up to US$94,816 and up +0.6% from where we were this time yesterday. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.0%.
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