A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; no retail rate changes, migration gains ease, construction inflation low, new GHG tool for farmers, new target to tackle child poverty, swaps soft, NZD soft, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank reduced its reverse mortgage floating rate by -36 bps to 9.39% (their Unwind account). All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here other than a very minor trim to the NBS 3 & 4 month rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

OUR TD RATE TABLES HAVE CHANGED
Non-Bank Deposit Takers will be included in the Deposit Compensation Scheme starting in mid-2025. Our rate tables now identify these regulated financial institutions.

LOW NET IMMIGRATION
Record numbers of New Zealanders moving overseas is keeping a lid on net migration gains. Population growth from migration is at an 11-year low (excluding travel restricted Covid years, of course).

CONTRUCTION INFLATION BEATEN
Annual residential construction cost inflation shrinks to 1.5%, which means inflation has almost disappeared from residential and commercial construction costs.

NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Here is a summary of how the NZX equity market traded today, as at 3pm. The NZX50 flat-to-firm to finish the week and trading better than many others. Spark, Air New Zealand, Contact the top the gainers; Kathmandu, Mercury & Oceania lead the decliners

BROADER OPTIONS FOR INVESTORS
The Government is to move to unlock KiwiSaver funds and revamp NZ capital markets. These reforms will allow $120 billion currently in KiwiSaver funds to be more easily invested in private assets. There are also changes on the way to make the NZX less ‘unattractive’

PLAYING CATCHUP
Today Synlait matched Fonterra's mid-point farmgate milk payout forecast of $10/kgMS for the current season. Synlait is a follower, not a leader. All dairy company forecasts, along with most analysts forecasts, are here.

MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD?
MPI has released a new standardised method for farmers to measure their greenhouse gas emissions as part of their climate-fighting obligations.

MODEST GAINS
International tourist arrivals were 240,195 in October, up +6.3% from the same month a year earlier. Arrivals in October were at 85% of pre-pandemic levels, up from the 80% in October 2023. (H/T Infometrics.)

FIVE YEARS & GONE?
Following the SolarZero liquidation, Cecilia Tarrant has announced she has resigned as Chair of New Zealand Green Investment Finance. And it sounds like the NZGIF may not have much of a future, because the Government announcement of her resignation said she won't be directly replaced "while decisions are made on the future direction of NZGIF". NZGIF was established in 2019 as a project by Green's co-leader James Shaw.

NEW TARGET, NEW BENCHMARK
Government Minister Louise Upston said 98,900 children in New Zealand, or 9.4%, live in households experiencing persistent poverty. She set a target today to get that down to 8% by 2035.

BORDERS MORE OPEN IN AUSTRALIA
In Australia, net overseas immigration added +446,000 people to their population in the year to June 2024, compared to +536,000 people in the prior year. (That compares with +73,300 in the same 2024 year in New Zealand.)

SWAP RATES SOFTISH
Wholesale swap rates are probably lower at the short end today, but the long end higher again, so a serious steepening is still underway. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp yesterday to 4.29%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps from yesterday at 4.34%. The China 10 year bond rate has fallen another -3 bps to just over 1.79% and yet another all-time low. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 4.57% while today's RBNZ fix was 4.49% and up +7 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.33% and up another +5 bps. Their 2yr is now at 4.19%, so that positive curve is now +14 bps, with another rise. And interestingly, the 30day-q10yr inversion vanished today.

EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER, NZX UP THOUGH
The NZX50 has risen +0.4% in late trade today. But the ASX200 is down -0.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Friday trade down -1.0%. Hong Kong is down -1.5% and Shanghai down -1.1%. Singapore is up +0.2% at its open. The S&P500 was down -0.5% in Thursday Wall Street trade.

OIL HOLDS
The oil price is little-changed from this time yesterday, still at US$70/bbl in the US, and still just on US$73.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE TURNS BACK UP
The carbon price is up +$3.85 today at NZ$63.10/NZU with some renewed trading in the market. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD DIPS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$21 from yesterday, now at US$2687/oz.

NZD MOVES LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is down -50 bps from this time yesterday, now at 57.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.6 AUc. And against the euro we are down -20 bps at 55.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 67.3 and down a bit more than -30 bps from yesterday.

BITCOIN SLIPS
The bitcoin price has fallen to US$99,383 and down -1.3% from where we were at this time yesterday. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.6%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».