Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today - so far, at least. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
The only change today comes from TSB who cut -50 bps from the WebSaver account rate, reducing it to 2.95%. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
ENDING ANOTHER YEAR WITHOUT GAINS
QV says housing values are the flattest they've been in more than a decade. 'There's very little to suggest that house prices will suddenly take off any time soon,' they say.
ANOTHER CASINO BEHAVING BADLY
The Department of Internal Affairs has filed civil proceedings in the High Court against Christchurch Casinos for alleged non-compliance with the AML/CFT laws.
'PAYMENT SYSTEMS LACK CHOICE & INNOVATION'
According to an RBNZ survey of both written and online responses, Kiwis say cash is crucial and current payment options are not delivering what customers want. The RBNZ is concerned about the limited choices people have to pay, and the lack of competition and innovation in our money and payments systems. They propose making cash available in a digital format is "so people can get the combined benefits of both cash and digital payments in one product that is fast, direct, offline and secure". More here. However, most survey respondents told the central bank they saw no need for digital cash and were worried about it being used to track private transactions. Paper cash is essential for illegal transactions like buying illicit drugs, paying bribes, doing GST-free cashies, 'donating' anonymously, etc, etc. Opponents of digital cash hide behind 'privacy' concerns and 'libertarian' philosophy. These same opponents like crypto-currencies for the freedoms they supposedly give to engage in some types of activities. But fiat-cash is best for anonymity. They certainly don't want competition. It is unlikely the RBNZ will give their views much weight.
DISCONNECT BETWEEN SURVEY RESULTS & BBQ PERCEPTIONS
A detailed Treasury analysis of the data on income inequality trends from 2007 to 2023, shows a rise until 2013 followed by a decline in inequality to below 2007 levels. The study analysed different household types separately, helping explain why public perceptions of inequality sometimes differ from official statistics. Seniors had less inequality over the period. Not everyone obviously, but overall. (Please read the paper before you comment.)
THE AVERAGES DISGUISE SURPRISING STRENGTHS - AND WEAKNESSES
According to updated Worldline/Paymark data consumer spending was up in the first seven days of December, both on the previous week and on the first seven days of December last year. But the gains are marginal and are barely enough (+3.8%) to account for inflation (+2.2%). But there is unusually wide variation. Spending in the first 7 days of December was up strongest on last year in Hawke’s Bay (+9.1%), Wairarapa (+8.8%) and Gisborne (+7.6%). The annual spending growth was lowest in Palmerston North (+0.4%), Wellington (+0.7%), Bay of Plenty (+1.7%) and Marlborough (+1.7%).
PRICING ERRORS DRAW CRIMINAL CHARGES
The Commerce Commission is filing criminal charges against Woolworths and two Pack-n-Save supermarkets over allegations of inaccurate pricing and misleading specials. It is a move that will hasten the rollout of electronic pricing, and eliminate paper pricing labels, just to avoid mistakes that can draw this sort of regulatory action..
NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Here is a summary of how the NZX equity market traded today, as at 3pm. a2 Milk, Hallenstein Glasson, and Vital Healthcare top the gainers, with Auckland Airport, Kathmandu, and Infratil the main the decliners.
A JUMP TO A SEVEN YEAR HIGH
Farmer confidence has risen strongly on positive moves for commodity prices, interest rates. Farmers also now expect land price increases. Confidence flowing back into agri sector and the Rabobank sentiment survey shows it is now at highest since mid-2017.
BORROW TOO MUCH, BLAME THE LENDER
Federated Farmers released their predictable whine about "banks behaving badly". But you can't read this without realising that many farmers have just borrowed too much, and this survey shows they feel entitled to complain that it is someone else's fault when markets and/or business conditions go against them and they are not meeting their loan obligations. 84% of farmers have a mortgage and hate it that their lender won't "rearrange" things to their advantage. Banks requiring them to deal with excessive debt (or climate obligations) is labeled "undue pressure". (They are helped with a bully-pulpit by getting more ex-FedFarmers officials elected to Parliament.) To be fair, the survey shows more than half of farmers surveyed say they have a positive relationship with their bank.
COUNCIL TAX TAKE LEAPS
Data released today by StatsNZ on the level of local authority revenue from rates and regulatory income for the September quarter shows that it exceeded $10 bln for the first time ever in the year to September. On the annual basis is was up +10.3%. Compared with the same quarter a year ago it is up +11.2%. When we looked back into the data history we found these are the fastest pace of increases almost ever (they match an outlier in 2007). Obviously in dollar terms they are by far the fastest pace of increase, rising +$945 mln in the past year. (Maybe surprisingly, rates are rising faster than regulatory income. There has never been a period before where rates collected have risen as fast and at a pace exceeding +10%.)
PRICING CONCERNS
Fintechs could be stymied by costly and differing access to open banking application programming interfaces. The Commerce Commission says banks' high API pricing 'is damaging the nascent market' for open banking.
END-OF-YEAR WEAKNESS
In Australia, the November NAB business confidence index fell to -3 from a near two-year peak of +5 in the prior month, falling below its long-term average. We haven't seen such a big one-month negative shift since the pandemic.
RBA HOLDS
Update: As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate target at 4.35%. "Taking account of recent data, the Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and is working as anticipated. Some of the upside risks to inflation appear to have eased and while the level of aggregate demand still appears to be above the economy’s supply capacity, that gap continues to close."
UNBELIEVABLY FAST
Today, a technical announcement from Google/Alphabet on a quantum computing advance has the following claim: "Second, Willow [their new quantum chip] performed a standard benchmark computation in under five minutes that would take one of today’s fastest supercomputers 10 septillion (that is, 1025) years — a number that vastly exceeds the age of the Universe." We are in a new era of computing power.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed yet again today. Most analysts don't see them falling much from here. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp yesterday at 4.32%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps from yesterday at 4.27%. The China 10 year bond rate has doved -5 bps to just under 1.91% and another all-time low. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 4.49% while today's RBNZ fix was 4.46% and up +2 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.20% and up +2 bps. Their 2yr is now at 4.13%, so that positive curve is now +7 bps, with an unexpected rise.
EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 has fallen -0.2% in late trade today. The ASX200 is down -0.6% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Tuesday trade up a mere +0.1%. Hong Kong is up +0.9% and Shanghai up a stronger +1.3% on China's stimulus talk. But Singapore is up +0.5% at its open. The S&P500 was down -0.6% on Monday Wall Street trade.
OIL FIRMS SLIGHTLY
The oil price is up +50 USc from this time yesterday, now at US$68/bbl in the US, and just on US$72/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE SAYS DOWN
The carbon price is staying lower today at NZ$59.25/NZU and a four month low. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMER
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$19 from yesterday, now at US$2664/oz.
NZD LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from where were this time yesterday, still just under 58.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps today at 91.4 AUc. And against the euro we are up +10 bps at 55.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still just over 68 and little-changed from yesterday.
BITCOIN SLIPS
The bitcoin price has fallen to US$97,964 and down -1.6% from where we were at this time yesterday. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.9%.
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59 Comments
Only allowing the TAB to offer online betting in NZ is a disaster waiting to happen, in every industry here there is a cozy duopoly but not betting, so the gummint sets up one?
I should be able to spend my tax paid money where I want?
Is this an escaped Greens policy?
Does it help that you won't be able to spend it on the doggies shortly?
Watch: Greyhound racing to be banned in New Zealand, Winston Peters announces | RNZ News
Greyhound racing banned in shock decision: ‘Time to do the right thing’ | Stuff
SPCA: 'Great day for greyhounds' as Racing Minister announces plans to ban the sport - NZ Herald
Winston Peters announces greyhound racing ban to protect dog welfare
etc.
We already have all that stuff, telling naughty people not to do things does not really work...
we have uncontrolled online gambling now
we have offies couriering booze to 15 year olds
drugs are but a facebook or whats app ask away
smokes still at local shops...
not sure what you point is?
Opponents of digital cash hide behind 'privacy' concerns and 'libertarian' philosophy. These same opponents like crypto-currencies for the freedoms they supposedly give to engage in some types of activities. But fiat-cash is best for anonymity. They certainly don't want competition. It is unlikely the RBNZ will give their views much weight.
Not particularly considered commentary. Almost every daily transaction people make in developed nations requires a corporation to be involved in; to enable; and to profit from the transaction. It doesn't occur to people but this is the reality. Even in Aotearoa, few people use bank notes and coins anymore. Money is fully corporatized.
What if the RBNZ's objective was to remove the corporation as much as possible from the transaction? Isn't this a societal benefit?
Suspicion of government is intensifying and probably more so, of the bureaucracy. For instance would not a government agency overseeing and directing the cash transactions of private citizens be an ideal circuit and platform to complement the effectiveness of a wealth tax? Just a hypothetical question, no paranoia intended.
Not really. The existing 'network' of large corporate players clipping the ticket already will fight tooth and nail to keep the status quo. (And one notes IRD, Customs, etc. can get access to the transactional data when they need to.) Ergo, the most likely result will be a whole new 'network' of smaller, nimble players that'll use the new RBNZ's digital currency to bypass the existing status quo. The two systems, existing and new, will co-exist for years and years, maybe even generations and generations.
Using money is pretty cheap and easy.
Sounds like a problem that doesn't need solving.
And if you're wanting your money to be free from tyrannical involvement, having one that starts out being highly concentrated in the hands of a few is probably not the wisest choice.
And if you're wanting your money to be free from tyrannical involvement, having one that starts out being highly concentrated in the hands of a few is probably not the wisest choice.
You should study the Cantillon Effect P. It has 3 important dimensions related to wealth (money) distribution.
First Recipients Benefit: Individuals or entities receive new money first can make purchases before prices increase, gaining a relative advantage.
Wealth Redistribution: The Cantillon Effect implies that wealth is redistributed from those who receive the money last—often lower-income individuals or sectors—to those who receive it first, typically wealthier entities or financial institutions.
Economic Distortions: The uneven distribution of new money can lead to distortions in asset prices and create economic bubbles. For ex, during periods of QE, asset prices may inflate disproportionately compared to consumer goods, exacerbating inequality.
Fairly clued up on the Cantillon effect. Mentioned it on here several times now.
I was referring to the irony of people wanting to be free of corporate banking, and instead entrusting their surplus wealth in another mechanism, which also has external majority interests calling the shots.
Fairly clued up on the Cantillon effect. Mentioned it on here several times now.
Then you should realize the money supply is largely concentrated in the "hands of a few."
I was referring to the irony of people wanting to be free of corporate banking
Corporate banking is for businesses. Individuals primarily use retail banking.
I run the other way, cash is hopeless it just vanishes from your wallet with no trace but its all accounted for on my credit card statement. I also get rewards dollars on it and the Eftpos card only comes out it is someone will not accept it or tries to rip you an additional charge on a big purchase. Pay it off every month, its the best thing ever.
NAB business survey in Aussie for November:
Confidence: -3 (prior: +5)
Conditions: +2 (prior: +7)
Very weak product prices and wage growth. Conditions worse since Covid.
https://thenightly.com.au/business/nab-business-survey-confidence-falls…
Opponents of digital cash hide behind 'privacy' concerns and 'libertarian' philosophy. These same opponents like crypto-currencies for the freedoms they supposedly give to engage in some types of activities.
That's because with cryptocurrency there's no risk I'll find myself in the future with some social credit system enforcement quango deciding I can't fill the car because I've driven further than my "allowance", or that I can't buy anything unhealthy at the supermarket because I'm a bit on the porky side and haven't had my state-mandated Ozempic jab yet, or that as the economy is in the $hitter if I don't spend my 'Kiwibux' as is a good citizen's duty to keep the consumerist wheels spinning, they'll be automatically deducted in a sort of extreme form of negative interest.
Both are "digital cash" (in loose terms) but CBDC offers me zero upside potential and nothing but downside risk. There's not a single conceivable benefit from where I'm sat. What does it offer me that using debit cards/credit cards doesn't (which is all presumably trackable enough for government needs)?
Real folding cash then has its own benefits (privacy, easier money management/budgeting for some, less dependency on payment networks etc) and actual cryptocurrency once again has some benefits re: privacy, "democratising" the means of exchange and so on.
But CBDC offer me nothing but a kick in the bollocks, which has a tendency to offend.
The only people I can see shilling for CBDCs are those who stand to benefit (governments) or those annoying 'if you've got nothing to hide you've got nothing to fear' types.
The only people I can see shilling for CBDCs are those who stand to benefit (governments) or those annoying 'if you've got nothing to hide you've got nothing to fear' types.
Add those who still have the utmost faith that the govt is there to take care of and look after them so they abdicate personal preparation and responsibility, and believe whatever is suggested by govt, or in this care the RBNZ, must be in the public interest or for public good. Sadly these types have grown in number since the fear of covid was pumped through the country.
Assuming the CBDC runs on a decentralised blockchain (presumably Ethereum or one of it's L2s) some immediately obvious benefits are:
- Cheaper transactions, no credit card fees.
- Near instant settlement for transactions 24/7.
- Opportunities for privacy via zero-knowledge proof technology.
- Ability to participate in DeFi and the broader ecosystem. Most assets will be tokenised in the future. Check out BlackRock's BUIDL token - tokenised US Treasury Bills on the blockchain.
To me it is the amount of capital the banks have to have for the amount of money they can lend out. So they have to charge more interest for the money out on these loans. Even though the risk for some farm loans is lower than the risk for some house loans. It all so affects business too.
Opponents of digital cash hide behind 'privacy' concerns and 'libertarian' philosophy. These same opponents like crypto-currencies for the freedoms they supposedly give to engage in some types of activities.
By this logic, the recent RBNZ survey tells us that the majority of New Zealanders are criminals for not wanting a CBDC.
This is the same logic which convinces certain people that free speech is just an excuse to spread hate and misinformation.
What this logic essentially boils down to is "everyone who disagrees with me is a far-right conspiracy theorist". In other words, there's very little logic at all.
Orr on Q&A.
A few days old (6) but it’s good to hear Orr speak negatively about our economy built on housing and our obsession with property prices.
Someone just needs the balls to do something.
Could Chris Luxury selling his houses be a signal of something more to come?
Heaven forbid the councils should restrain themselves from taking other peoples money for their vanity projects
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/tauranga-museum-128m-project-greenlit-by-…
"Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer stands by $200b CGT, Nicola Willis calls it ‘Soviet’"
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/te-pati-maori-co-leader-debbie-n…
Banks requiring them to deal with excessive debt (or climate obligations) is labelled "undue pressure".
Oh Bless DC. You really think banks are requiring farmers to deal with "excessive climate obligations" out of the goodness of their hearts? The are making a buck out of it just like all the other climate industry grifters.
"Bankers will soon be able to claim credit for emissions they say their financing has helped avoid, as the world’s largest voluntary carbon accounting framework for the finance industry works on broadening standards."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-03/bankers-to-start-inc…
This is a report on Income inequality not wealth inequality, rich people can have no taxable income just ask Elon, Jeff, or Michael. Some people say unrealised capital gains are just on paper but people borrow against these paper gains to buy more assets.
Today, a technical announcement from Google/Alphabet on a quantum computing advance has the following claim: "Second, Willow [their new quantum chip] performed a standard benchmark computation in under five minutes that would take one of today’s fastest supercomputers 10 septillion (that is, 1025) years — a number that vastly exceeds the age of the Universe." We are in a new era of computing power.
Hmmm ... So how long to brute-force hack passwords, private keys, and the public/private key encryption system the entire financial system & internet relies on?
Yes, And hack into the Pentagon; missile systems; energy grids.
Thanks Google.
Fortunately, advanced quantum technologies are being developed to counter quantum threats:
Quantum Random-Number Generators: These are already being implemented by banks, governments, and private cloud carriers to enhance security
Quantum Keys: Adding quantum keys to blockchain software and encrypted data could provide "unhackable" security against both classical and quantum computers.
Out of the blue...lol ... Was reading a few news articles today about gang members being sentenced or wotnot , When the thought occurred to me that gang patches were banned in public places....So how is it I am still seeing them plastered all over news media.... ? Shouldnt we not be seeing them anymore at all...?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/kahu/police-prepare-for-major-influx-of-gang…
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/senior-head-hunter-gang-member-arrested-o…
Clearly patches are not yet publicly banned .... or is it that gang members cannot display patches but the media can ? ...seems to me to be somewhat farcical.... or is it just a partial ban ? Media can splash gang patches all over the public domain ...but gang members cannot... What makes the media companies so special?
So retrospectively...gang members that had patches before the ban came into place would be immune from prosecution.....lol Nothing retrospective about the ban at all.... Media are breaking the law in continuing to show Gang patches and regalia .... simple as that...the dates of the publication are after the ban came into effect... If the gangs cant display their patches then neither should the media... the general public should not be seeing gang patches , not much point in having a ban... if media are able to circumvent it ... my 10 cents
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/auckland-hells-angels-biker-caught-at-pet…
You could read the Act.
Purpose
The purpose of this Act is to reduce the ability of gangs to operate and cause fear, intimidation, and disruption to the public by—
(a) prohibiting the display of gang insignia in public places
public place has the meaning given by section 2(1) and (2) of the Summary Offences Act 1981, but does not include—
(a) any publicly accessible online place (for example, an internet site or an online application or similar):
(b) for the purposes of Part 2 or subpart 1 of Part 3, the parliamentary precincts (within the meaning of section 3 of the Parliamentary Service Act 2000)
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