Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank cut its six month rate but raised its 4 & 5 year fixed rates. More here. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank cut its 1yr and less TD rates, leaving it with only the 6 mth rate 5%+. Rabobank cut its term deposit rates too. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
PANCAKE IMPERSONATION
There has been no growth in residential rents for the last nine months. Summer will be a big test for the rental market. Rents and the number of rental properties being tenanted are both as flat as a pancake.
RATE VIEWS DIVERGE
The latest Reserve Bank figures show a sharp rise in the amount of new borrowing being committed on floating rates, while among fixed rates, the one-year term has soared in popularity.
NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Here is a summary of how the NZX equity market traded today, as at 3pm. The Warehouse Group, Auckland Airport, Manawa Energy, and Port of Tauranga lead the gainers, with Fletchers, The NZX, PFI, and Gentrack as the biggest decliners.
TIGHTENING THE CAPITAL BASE
APRA has confirmed it will phase out the use of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) capital instruments "to simplify and improve the effectiveness of bank capital in a crisis".
NO ONE INTERNAL GOOD ENOUGH FOR PROMOTION
ANZ said Nuno Matos will be succeeding Shayne Elliott as ANZ Banking Group CEO. New Zealander Elliott is leaving ANZ next year to be replaced by Matos, an ex-HSBC and Santander executive. The stock market greeted the appointment with a hefty -2.9% sell-off.
BNZ WINS GLORIAVALE CASE
The Court of Appeal has ruled in favour of BNZ in its case against Gloriavale entities, seeking to prevent the bank from debanking the christian community. The judgment is here.
GENDER BALANCE ON AUSSIE PAYROLLS
New data out today shows the median weekly earnings of those in full-time employment rose +6.3% to AU$1700/week (AU$88,400 per year). For women the rise was faster, up +6.5%, for men slower, up +5.2%. In 2022, men had a +18% pay advantage over women. By 2024 this had shrunk to +12%. That current advantage is worth AU$191/week (AU$9,900 per year).
THE FIGHT AGAINST DEFLATION NOT BEING WON YET
China’s annual CPI rate fell to 0.2% in November from 0.3% in the prior month, missing market forecasts. China's producer prices dropped by -2.5% year-on-year in November, following a 2.9% fall in the previous month and a softer decline than market expectations of a -2.8% fall.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed yet again today. Most analysts don't see them falling much from here. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged on Friday at 4.33%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged from this morning, still at 4.25%. The China 10 year bond rate is still at just under 1.96%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 4.49% while today's RBNZ fix was 4.44% and down -4 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.18% and down -1 bp. Their 2yr is now at 4.15%, so that positive curve is still +3 bps, all little-changed ahead of the US non-farm payrolls report.
EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 has risen +0.4% in late trade today. The ASX200 is down -0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Monday trade up +0.3%. Hong Kong is down -0.5% and Shanghai up +0.1%. But Singapore is down -0.2% at its open. The S&P500 futures suggest Wall Street will open tomorrow little-changed, up +0.1%. But even that tiny rise will make it a new all-time record high if it holds.
OIL LOW BUT ON HOLD
The oil price is up +50 USc from this morning, now at US$67.50/bbl in the US, and just under US$71.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE DROPS AGAIN
The carbon price is lower again today in live trade, now down at NZ$59.25/NZU and down -$2.85 in further weakness. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRM
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$12 from this morning, now at US$2645/oz.
NZD UNCHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from where were this morning, now at 58.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps today at 91.2 AUc. And against the euro we are up +10 bps at 55.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still at 68 and little-changed from this morning's open.
BITCOIN ON HOLD
The bitcoin price has fallen to US$99,551 and down -0.2% from where we were at this morning's open. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.3%.
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83 Comments
It will be interesting to compare this latest Curia poll with TV1s Kantar poll (tonight?)
On these numbers, National and ACT would not require the support of NZ First to form a government.
"National is down 4.6 points to 34.2% from November while Labour is down 4.6 points to 26.9%. The Greens are down 1 point to 8.3%, while ACT are up to 13% (+4.5 points). New Zealand First is down 1.1 points to 5.4% while Te Pāti Māori is up 3 points to 5.5%."
"40.2% of respondents named the Economy more generally as one of their top three issues, followed by the Cost of living at 37.4%, Health at 34%, Education at 17.5%, Treaty issues on 17.1%, Law and Order on 15.8% and Employment on 13.2%."
https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/final_poll_dec2024
There's a long list.
Don't quite know where to start.
The fact as a global species we still permit state sanctioned murder, and the existence of nuclear weapons leads me to think we haven't advanced one iota as an animal.
We're still the apex artificial intelligence.
It's interesting intellectually. Sapience may well turn out to be an ecological blind-alley - but life-forms, by default, must trend towards sapience (a single cell hasn't much in the way of options. Tools and energy-leverage would seem to be the thresholds.
How we navigate the way down, is what interests me. First surprise, is how many people don't seem to grasp the problem. Yvill the other day, for example, chastising self for occupying too much land (per person). All the stuff I've put up about energy, stored fossil acreage, over the years - and he sttill doesn't see overshoot. One wonders...
must trend towards sapience (a single cell hasn't much in the way of options)
I had read a theorem that there's intelligence displayed even at an atomic level. My belief (which could very well be moonbeams) is that there's an intelligence within our physical bodies that exceeds that of our minds by an almost incomparable margin. Its shared with everything else around us, and our perceived intelligence is often highly divorced from it.
First surprise, is how many people don't seem to grasp the problem
Every time you see an obese person, should be a cause to remember how we are often very oblivious to even the most obvious of problems (not to single out fatties, they're just a more visually obvious example of our self defeating tendencies). The fact we can't identify and address wider existential issues, should be of no surprises at all.
It's not a theorem though. It's ancient knowledge, wisdom that's been ignored, manipulated, hidden from the majority.
The practiced and trained yogis, Buddhists, gnostics have taught it for millenia. It's sometimes referred to as intelligent design, cosmic intelligence, and it's only our ego mind, overly logic developed brains that hold us back from true gnosis, and an experiential knowing of this. We believe we need science to prove it all, yet in many ways our science is only catching up to what was already known by many.
I was deleted from another thread for suggesting that our human and planetary system were already perfectly designed, and we didn't need technology to cure cancer and many illnesses, or to solve environmental problems. Dis-ease is ultimately a misalignment of our mind/body system. It's affected more by our modern world of toxins, what we consume both physically and mentally, and especially our emotions and modern stressors.
It's not a theorem though. It's ancient knowledge, wisdom that's been ignored, manipulated, hidden from the majority.
I'd agree, it's just that modern empirical science is becoming capable of observing it (you see this also).
Even Einstein attested that his relativity theory was not born from his intelligence.
As for your views on human health, we can't overlook the abilities of medical science to heal us, but yeah I'd agree a great deal of our afflictions are own goals. Everyone's got ADHD? No kidding, we've made distraction a financial commodity.
And the synthesis or refinement of what we consume is often of inferior health quality to something closer to the natural state. Which stands to reason, because our bodies evolved to consume what's natural, rather than that which is overly manipulated.
Some parts of medical science is great when it comes to broken bones, complex surgery etc.
As for the rest that still sees pills as a solution rather than holistic preventive measures, worse than quackery.
As for "mental" illnesses, medical science is way off track.
Its shared with everything else around us
This is the suggested "oneness", the "divine sacredness", and if we humans cultivated this within us we would better relate with all around us. This is the concept of mind/body/spirit, of inner union (yoga), union of the masculine/feminine (yin/yang, god/goddess, heiros/gamos, Christos/Sophia, shiva/shakti, alpha/omega consciousness) within each of us. Otherwise known as self realisation or actualisation as Maslow recognised it. The Sufi mystics taught it, the Tao te Ching, Buddha, First Nations people refer to it as the Great Mystery, or Great Spirit, Father Sky/Mother Earth. It's the concept of sovereign being, self governance, from a higher consciousness than the ego or personality self.
Our science calls it the big bang. It wants to refute the possibility there is a greater power or force living in everything.
All the stuff I've put up about energy, stored fossil acreage, over the years - and he sttill doesn't see overshoot. One wonders...
My theory is that humans are far too tangible. Look at how short our attention spans are, as with a long period of peace we become complacent, lazy and selfish vs after a conflict where communities band together to help each other. Also, it is simple to see how each generation keeps lumping more onto the next to maintain their own standard of living. This ties back with your energy consumption in that each progressive generation seemingly uses more energy than the last to the detriment of their future generations. We are no different in essence, than a pack of lions on an island who found a secret grove full of game, soon only to hunt the lot to extinction and have to move on to new lands in search of more.
The middle east is a gigantic powder keg, the West is on the brink of starting a nuclear war with Russia, two major economic powerhouses of the EU are in political limbo, the drums of fear are already being sounded for the next pandemic, and we're 3 months away from a major, unpredictable shake-up in the world's largest economy.
In other words, there's plenty going on globally to keep inflation and interest rates high.
The middle east is a gigantic powder keg, the West is on the brink of starting a nuclear war with Russia, two major economic powerhouses of the EU are in political limbo, the drums of fear are already being sounded for the next pandemic, and we're 3 months away from a major, unpredictable shake-up in the world's largest economy.
Hey look, a list of reasons why it's good to be in NZ.
I will happily overlook that we're not a bleeding edge post-industrial powerhouse.
The neocons are obviously worried about Trump.
All these things - missiles, land-mines, ASyrian 'rebels'- have happened since the outcome of the election was obvious (which was quite some time before it). They are cramming as much as they can, into the time they have left. Syrian oil, just like Iraqi oil and Libyan oil and pipeling-routes - the hegemony needs the energy, and need it's opposers not to have it. And fracking is temporary.
Syrian oil reserves? Believe that is less than 1% by international composition. Unfortunate for a nation surrounded by other nations with a percentage copious in comparison. Blokes that drew those “crayon marks” post WW1 did some real thinking didn’t they. Syria out, Kuwait in for example.
Russia's support of Assad has always been about preventing a gas pipeline being built through Syria. Without this it's way harder for Western Europe to access the massive gas fields of the Persian Gulf, which currently has to be converted to LNG and transported by ship. This is massively inefficient, and effectively makes (or at least made) Europe dependent on Russian gas via Nord Stream.
Assad has always been an easy target. Nobody really likes him much, and he relies on support from his few friends (primarily Russia and Iran) to keep him in power. But now with Iran and Russia tied up with other things, it was a golden opportunity to strike.
Funny how these things makes a lot more sense once you understand the geopolitics involved. It's very rarely just Goodies vs Baddies as the media likes to portray it.
Iran is hardly without its own internal unrest. Now on its eastern border the Taliban with Al Qaeda & ISIS affiliations, on the western border Syria with not dissimilar configuration, and then to the south Iraq with much unfinished business. One maniacal thrust by Hamas on Israel has completely put some big rats amongst the fowls. And far to the east China, inscrutable China, Russia and Irans best pals, watches, waits and considers what opportunities might arise in all of the regions to their west, given the turmoil so far, the weakening of the powers that be, and without even a shot needing to be fired.
The overthrowers of the Assad regime have had on the way, for quite a period, some bitter battles with the Iranian and Hezbollah military. It now depends on whether or not they think they have enough momentum, plus recently acquired armaments and munitions, to venture beyond Syria’s borders, and see what kicking some more ant hills might achieve?
Aussie media does a beat-up on Queenstown and its ridiculous costs. They should have realized that Queenie's trying to compete on equal footing as Aspen, Vail, Jackson Hole, Davos. To be honest, I think the place is highly overrated, but that's just me. Anyway, they're not getting my ski dollar - my right knee's been beaten up too bad.
https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-advice/money/new-zealands-cost-of…
Yeah, a burrito and a mango - the staples of the average household...
He's just jealous because Australia doesn't have a top tier global tourism destination. I'm serious, the GC is a dive, Byron I rate and Noosa as well, but they don't have the pull of Queenstown and are much smaller. Where else, Broome, Cairns (please)? 50% of their coast is unswimable, all their tropical resorts died due to 1) cyclone 2) high wages = crazy expensive 3) sharks/crocs/stingers/stone fish.
They just go to Bali and Fiji.
Byron I rate and Noosa as well, but they don't have the pull of Queenstown and are much smaller.
Fair comment. But what is the profile of those who want to go to Queenie? It seems to me that they relied to some degree on the winter ski holiday Aussies and the Chinese package tours. The Aussie numbers to the Japanese ski resorts have been declining. Rely on the repeat visitors - the lawyer and his family escaping the Aussie Xmas period.
Have a mate who grew up in Mullumbimby near Byron Bay. Still a few salt-of-the-earth hippie and stoner types around apparently.
AirBNB is crazy here though
Really depends how many there are of you. If you've got six people it can be cheaper sharing a house than all having hotel rooms.
Plus if you want somewhere in a natural location Airbnb usually has more interesting options.
Not really too interested in Hotels unless it's in the middle of a city for convenience.
No need to bring me into it.
We're not so unique though. Other than our Maori heritage we're still very similar to our English, Scottish, Irish forebears, if you travel out of the big cities in those countries.
I've noticed that the majority of Kiwi's and "western" travellers mainly visit places with an element of familiarity, or popular tourist destinations. Only a few really step outside of their comfort zones.
We're not so unique though
Absolutely we're not. The parts of NZ I value the most exist outside the boundaries of our major cities. What's inside is of no great distinction.
I've noticed that the majority of Kiwi's and "western" travellers mainly visit places with an element of familiarity, or popular tourist destinations. Only a few really step outside of their comfort zones.
This is most people, everywhere.
Yeah, I travel a lot, so don't experience the extreme level of extra expense you keep talking about. Tank of gas varies about $10 here, maybe a couple of days groceries are $15 less there, meh. And totally negated by the extra value I can generate performing commerce with my own indigenous community.
The only places way cheaper, have commensurately lower wages to exclude them as a viable work relocation. Unless you're able to work remotely and earn a Western income there.
The only places way cheaper, have commensurately lower wages to exclude them as a viable work relocation. Unless you're able to work remotely and earn a Western income there.
All depends P. Chances are that being a local hire in Japan as a foreign generalist means that your market value is quite low. What value are you going to bring? Some expats in Japan can be hired on much higher salaries than in Aotearoa, particularly in finance / tech / engineering and without much or no language competency. Just depends what you have to offer in the market.
I taught English there 25 odd years ago for $50 NZD an hour in that days exchange rate.
Today I'd be lucky to earn $15-$20. And I now have significantly more experience than in my early 20s.
I'd say a higher income ability for a non-Japanese speaking, non-culturally aware foreigner within a Japanese firm, is far rarer than common, so much as to make the point moot, when trying to compare expenses on a 1:1 basis. And even if you were in that rare demographic you're talking about, likely you're such a baller no matter where you live that trivial things like living expenses don't factor as much in your choice of where to live, and Japan is far down the list.
That the continual highlighting of Japanese costs of living is pointless for most people in NZ?
Lol, also:
- average salary for a programmer in Japan: $60,000 NZD
- average salary for a programmer in NZ: $90,000
So finding a job programming in Japan that'd be a payrise for a Kiwi, would be a neat trick.
Programmers in general are becoming less valuable in both Japan and NZ when you have competent programmers in places like Vietnam. Hence FTP (Vietnam) even having a presence in Japan.
At the onset of IT in finance in Japan in the 00s, skilled and adaptable expats made out like bandits working on things like NT Server.
The same income disparity goes for engineers in Japan. And that's a place that does a lot more engineering - I'm not even sure how you'd value a gaijin engineer more than a Japanese one there.
Do you actually have examples then of jobs in Japan that pay a decent amount more for the same job in NZ?
How about you, how much more does your role (or closest to it) pay in Japan?
It's another case that refutes the validity of your argument. It rests on obtaining a fictional job inaccessible to 99%+ of us.
We can deduce that it's extremely unlikely for a New Zealander to move to Japan, and get a pay rise. Or even be in a position to have a higher savings rate.
So we might as well point out how much cheaper the cost of living is in somewhere like India, or Malaysia, compared to NZ or Japan. Because we'd likely earn way less there again.
Unlikely such an observation will prevent you raising the same notions, many more times.
We can deduce that it's extremely unlikely for a New Zealander to move to Japan, and get a pay rise.
Which is something I never claimed. But it is true that for example a private school teacher might be paid higher in Tokyo than they're paid in Aotearoa. Private schools across Asia in general pay teachers much better than in their home countries. They have to in order to attract those teachers. I doubt they can just rock up though.
Furthermore, if the scope of one's "work" is scalable, then salary becomes irrelevant. It's about income. Doesn't matter if you're based in Japan, Aotearoa, Dubai, wherever.
But it is true that for example a private school teacher might be paid higher in Tokyo than they're paid in Aotearoa.
Please show me how it's true. My experience suggests private teaching income has encountered a significant deterioration in Japan. Likely because the populace are less able to afford it.
Furthermore, if the scope of one's "work" is scalable, then salary becomes irrelevant. It's about income. Doesn't matter if you're based in Japan, Aotearoa, Dubai, wherever.
Only you're trying to make like for like comparisons between one country and another.
But yes, you're quite right, one is much more likely to financially benefit from changing the nature of their work instead of the geographic area you're doing it in. My primary commercial function pays a significantly lower average income than how I run things.
Please show me how it's true. My experience suggests private teaching income has encountered a significant deterioration in Japan. Likely because the populace are less able to afford it.
I'm sure you can search for the international schools like the British School; International School of the Sacred Heart; Nishimachi International School; Yokohama International School. And the different international school companies like Cognita. If the salaries were so poor, then these schools wouldn't exist. And the international teachers are a necessity.
I went to Queenstown a coup-le of weekends back. Dinner out was around $38 for the meal but was a solid plate, and considering a speights alehouse will set you back $40+ for a steak and chips alone around the south island, it wasn't the worst for the money in a place like Q'town.
Spot gold heads higher after this weekend's news that China resumed buying for its official reserves and the collapse of Syria's government. China is the biggest, most aggressive gold buyer in the world and the gates are open after a six-month hiatus.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-07/china-resumes-buying…
I think this is a bit 'rich', not a fan of 'de-banking' on this sort of moral grounds. Who will be next? Oh, you voted for them did you, account frozen. If they want to go down this road then do it consistently for everyone with a finding against them.
BNZ made the call on the back of the Employment Court finding three former Gloriavale members were employees, not volunteers.
Gloriavale risks closure after court allows BNZ to shut its accounts
Who next? Police refusing to investigate reported burglaries; surgeons refusing to operate, KFC refusing to sell chicken, parking wardens refusing to issue tickets? There should be zero de-banking. If doctors and nurses have to treat every patient equally whether saint or mass murderer why not banks?
Interesting, But surely they can find another bank?
Yet the notion of closing an account for an entity based on moral grounds is indeed a new concept - which (as I read it) the courts have set a precedent with in this case.
Think of all the companies breaching our labour laws;
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/476870/most-migrant-exploitation-co…
I'd be happy to see them suffer the same fate with their banks if found guilty.
Well, I read the article report of the ruling (but not the actual ruling, mind) as:
1. BNZ is a business and allowed to choose who they do business with; and
2. Gloriavale hadn't been able to find another bank to do business with, indicating BNZ's position was not unusual.
As much as I don't want to see people de-banked for political reasons, or on a whim, I'm not sure I'm happy to see banks profit off businesses convicted of breaching child labour laws. How much liability does BNZ have towards these child slaves - for example were the profits of the children's labour going into their own accounts or someone else's, and how much was BNZ aware of that? Wasn't ANZ considered partly responsible for RAM when they overlooked an obvious ponzi?
As you say, there's a significant number of other businesses who probably should face the same fate - might even send a message to those likewise contemplating further exploitation of others?
Most of us are going to be financially benefiting in varying degrees from all manner of labour exploitation. It's not really an open secret how much of what we consume has child labour, forced labour and indentured servitude involved at varying points in the supply and manufacturing chains.
So it's more a case of pointy finger at who gets exposed.
BNZ is a business and allowed to choose who they do business with
True, but they're given a very special privilege in NZ via RBNZ to create credit/money and as such there is a public service aspect to it. I hope there're equally fine with the public of NZ taking away their ability to do business in NZ!
If you follow this through and we end up with large sections of society 'unbanked' as well as cash being under attack, then what do we expect people to do? I would be fine with everyone having an account with the IRD, actually I might drop banks all together and just use it if the option existed. Is it possible to deal with the IRD without a bank account?
Frankly I think this is a public image move. I would guess GV don't make BNZ much money (doubt they are silly enough to be debt farmed by the bank).
An example of moral grounds?
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/lifestyle/kiwi-sex-toy-company-girls-get-o…
One could easily suggest that debt servitude for ones basic needs for shelter, for a home, is morally reprehensible.
Then there's the question of morals vs ethics.
Yes, hence my, do it consistently with all people and businesses that have a finding against them (if you're going to but really, I don't want such an 'essential service' of society rationed in this way).
I just think it's up to the court to issue the punishment, so not the banks job. The exception is if the existence of the bank account is facilitating ongoing financial crime, but presumably GV will have changed their operation to be legal now.
Funnily enough, for the migrant exploitation cases it would be better to ban cash instead of bank accounts. No refunds of wages at the ATM etc, every transaction via a bank or instant fine.
I laughed at the liquor stores saying staff would miss work hours with the early closing - maybe a pay raise for the workers (same min pay through IRD to tick the box but less hours worked now).
Fantastic. Those that run Gloriavale are scumbags of the highest degree and ought have the might of the law imposed on them for the opportunities that so many who live, and have lived there, have missed due to not being paid for their work, and having accounts they cannot access while the leaders all harness the workers money to grow their plethora of businesses.
I would bet the main reason for the flat rental cost is the reinstatement of interest deductibility.
Bollocks. The flat rental cost is due to people leaving the country, renters not being able to afford more, more new immigrants per household. Landlord's charge as much as the market is able to pay, landlord costs do not come into it.
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