Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank cut its six month rate but raised its 4 & 5 year fixed rates. More here. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank cut its 1yr and less TD rates, leaving it with only the 6 mth rate 5%+. Rabobank cut its term deposit rates too. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
PANCAKE IMPERSONATION
There has been no growth in residential rents for the last nine months. Summer will be a big test for the rental market. Rents and the number of rental properties being tenanted are both as flat as a pancake.
RATE VIEWS DIVERGE
The latest Reserve Bank figures show a sharp rise in the amount of new borrowing being committed on floating rates, while among fixed rates, the one-year term has soared in popularity.
NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Here is a summary of how the NZX equity market traded today, as at 3pm. The Warehouse Group, Auckland Airport, Manawa Energy, and Port of Tauranga lead the gainers, with Fletchers, The NZX, PFI, and Gentrack as the biggest decliners.
TIGHTENING THE CAPITAL BASE
APRA has confirmed it will phase out the use of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) capital instruments "to simplify and improve the effectiveness of bank capital in a crisis".
NO ONE INTERNAL GOOD ENOUGH FOR PROMOTION
ANZ said Nuno Matos will be succeeding Shayne Elliott as ANZ Banking Group CEO. New Zealander Elliott is leaving ANZ next year to be replaced by Matos, an ex-HSBC and Santander executive. The stock market greeted the appointment with a hefty -2.9% sell-off.
BNZ WINS GLORIAVALE CASE
The Court of Appeal has ruled in favour of BNZ in its case against Gloriavale entities, seeking to prevent the bank from debanking the christian community. The judgment is here.
GENDER BALANCE ON AUSSIE PAYROLLS
New data out today shows the median weekly earnings of those in full-time employment rose +6.3% to AU$1700/week (AU$88,400 per year). For women the rise was faster, up +6.5%, for men slower, up +5.2%. In 2022, men had a +18% pay advantage over women. By 2024 this had shrunk to +12%. That current advantage is worth AU$191/week (AU$9,900 per year).
THE FIGHT AGAINST DEFLATION NOT BEING WON YET
China’s annual CPI rate fell to 0.2% in November from 0.3% in the prior month, missing market forecasts. China's producer prices dropped by -2.5% year-on-year in November, following a 2.9% fall in the previous month and a softer decline than market expectations of a -2.8% fall.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed yet again today. Most analysts don't see them falling much from here. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged on Friday at 4.33%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged from this morning, still at 4.25%. The China 10 year bond rate is still at just under 1.96%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 4.49% while today's RBNZ fix was 4.44% and down -4 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.18% and down -1 bp. Their 2yr is now at 4.15%, so that positive curve is still +3 bps, all little-changed ahead of the US non-farm payrolls report.
EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 has risen +0.4% in late trade today. The ASX200 is down -0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Monday trade up +0.3%. Hong Kong is down -0.5% and Shanghai up +0.1%. But Singapore is down -0.2% at its open. The S&P500 futures suggest Wall Street will open tomorrow little-changed, up +0.1%. But even that tiny rise will make it a new all-time record high if it holds.
OIL LOW BUT ON HOLD
The oil price is up +50 USc from this morning, now at US$67.50/bbl in the US, and just under US$71.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE DROPS AGAIN
The carbon price is lower again today in live trade, now down at NZ$59.25/NZU and down -$2.85 in further weakness. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRM
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$12 from this morning, now at US$2645/oz.
NZD UNCHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from where were this morning, now at 58.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps today at 91.2 AUc. And against the euro we are up +10 bps at 55.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still at 68 and little-changed from this morning's open.
BITCOIN ON HOLD
The bitcoin price has fallen to US$99,551 and down -0.2% from where we were at this morning's open. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.3%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
Daily swap rates
Select chart tabs
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.