Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news all eyes are on how well, or otherwise, the end of year holiday retail season will progress. But we will have to wait for that data to start coming in.
But in the US, they could report outsized gains because shoppers may well choose to spend now at prices that will be lower, perhaps much lower, that when the new Administration imposes its promised tariffs. And that won't change until the incoming government realises what any high school economics student knows - that tariffs are a tax on yourself.
Japanese consumer sentiment recovered somewhat in November, still positive, but nothing like what they had from December to March yearier in the year.
Japanese retail sales rose +1.6% in October, recovering from the weak September expansion, but still much lower than what they have achieved monthly since early 2022. At least it is back heading in the "right" direction.
And Japanese industrial production rose +1.6% in October from a year ago, ending two months of retreat
South Korea's industrial production rose in October at a very strong +6.3% rate from a year ago, after the unusual stumble in September, returning to the average expansion they have had since September 2023. So it will be no surprise yo learn that their exports keptr rising strongly in October, as did their imports.
However Korean retail sales slipped in October to be -0.8/% lower than a year ago
India's economic expansion is 'consolidating', delivering a somewhat disappointing Q3-2024 result. Their economy rose +5.4% from the previous year, slowing from the +6.7% expansion in Q2-2024 and well below market expectations of a +6.5% increase. It was their softest pace of growth since Q4-2022. Still, even at the lates lower rate, it is rising on a per capita basis.
This miss adds pressure on the Reserve Bank of India to cut its policy interest rate which currently stands ar 6.5%.
The Indian currency fell on the news to a record low against the USD. Although not a record low against the NZD, it is has been close to that since the whole period from end of 2020.
In Canada, their Q3-2024 GDP growth came in +1.0% higher than a year ago, up +0.3 fr the quarter. This was not enough to prevent a fall in per capita GDP. On that basis it fell -0.4% in the third quarter, which was the sixth consecutive quarterly decline.
In Europe, inflation expectations in the euro zone for the year ahead edged up slightly in October to 2.5%, and stayed steady for three years out at 2.1%, the ECB's monthly Consumer Expectations Survey showed
EU CPI inflation rose to 2.3% in October, up from 2.1% in September, but still clearly in a down-trend that started in November 2022.
In Australia, private sector debt rose +6.1% in October from a year ago, driven primarily by business debt growth, up +8.3% on the same basis, but housing debt growth was up +5.3% too. Other personal debt only rose +2.2% in October. (From a Kiwi perspective, these are relatively fast rises. Yesterday equivalent RBNZ data showed business debt rising only +1.1%, housing debt rising only +3.5%, and personal debt up only +1.7% in the year to October.)
In Australia there is some scepticism that this debt tide rise will be maintained.
The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.18% and down -6 bps from this time yesterday and down -23 bps from this time last week. The key 2-10 yield curve is still positive, but only by +2 bps. Their 1-5 curve inversion is inverted by -23 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is slightly deeper at -43 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.36% and down -6 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 2.04%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp from this time yesterday at 4.47%, down -20 bps for the week, and back to where it was six weeks ago.
Wall Street had a half-day session today, but ended with a +0.6% gain for the S&P500. For the week it is up +1.5% to a new all-time record high, something that happens regularly now. Overnight, European markets were quite mixed again. London hardly moved, up +0.1% in its final session of the week to be +0.3% higher for the week. Paris was up +0.8% on the day but down -1.3% for the week. Frankfurt rose +1.0% overnight to end up +0.8% for the week. Tokyo dipped -0.4% on Friday to be -1.2% lower for the week. Hong Kong rose +0.3% to be 0.6% higher for the week. Shanghai was +0.9% higher yesterday for a weekly gain of +0.6%. Singapore only rose +0.1%. The ASX200 dipped -0.1% and ended up +0.5% from a week ago. The NZX50 rose +0.1% on Friday for a +0.2% weekly gain.
The Fear & Greed Index ends the week still in the 'greed' zone where it was last week.
The price of gold will start today at US$2659/oz and up +US$17 from this time yesterday, but down -US46 from this time last week.
Oil prices are little-changed, still just over US$68.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just under US$72.50/bbl. A week ago these levels were $2.50/bbl higher, so a retreat from then.
The Kiwi dollar starts today at 59.2 USc and up +30 bps from this time yesterday. But it is up almost +1c from this time last week. Against the Aussie we up +20 bps at 90.2 AUc. Against the euro we up +20 bps to 56 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 68.6, and up +20 bps from yesterday, up +50 bps from a week ago.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$97,063 and up +1.9% from this time yesterday, but down -2.0% from this time last week. Another crack at the US$100,000 level seems to be underway today. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.1%.
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14 Comments
Isn't India's GDP per capita much lower that NZ's? So if we had similar growth it would be regarded as phenomenal. A 6% increase on 10k would be 600 while a 2% increase on 50k would be 1000. Which would you prefer?
I don't know, I may be confused, but worth thinking about.
Uhhh yeah. You can grow a lot faster when you're going from a lower base. Industrial leaps are bigger, and a hungry workforce is more motivated.
That and you can capture foreign jobs with lower wages, that are still a lot higher than domestic ones.
Pretty sure most here wouldn't want to swap their life for the average Indians.
I agree in principle but doesn't take away the fact that NZ has plenty of room to improve.
We're at a smaller GDP per capita base than many Western countries and are falling further behind than many. The skills, capital and leadership required to compete on foreign or local jobs are absent.
My team here in NZ used to do a lot of the work on Aussie projects even half a decade ago. These days we struggle to find quality engineers to do local work properly.
The Russo-Chinese blatant and open cable sabotage under the Baltic needs a major response!!
Swedish PM says Baltic sea now ‘high risk’ after suspected cable sabotage | Sweden | The Guardian
About time those resident defanged Vikings get out of their Kategat slumber beds and resurrect their past, glorious, warrior spirit and get their "anger on" and deal with the Yi Peng3 crew, owners and backers, in serious ways!
What's become of the once fearsome Vikings?
The BIGGEST Battles | Vikings
This constant, Russian instigated, sabotage and destruction crap, can't be left to slide.
This latest incident would have been dealt with exceptionally 1000 years ago and it would have been aflamed and soon after, kissing the Baltics dirty bottom.
I like spirit in the hottie Lagerther and the Shieldmaidens in general! Bring them back!
Vikings: What Are Shield-Maidens? History & Mythology Explained
All civilizations in the past had gloriouse armies courageous to unfearless to all empire building. From the Spartans to the Ottomans to Genghis and so on even old Te Rapuhara could get a mention somewhere. The problem is the Vikings as you say if they went out and retalliated against a leader or two (putin, kim,jong) are more likely to increase ghe chance of ww3
No one wants WW3.....yet is ongoing appeasements a viable avenue against the thug regimes?
They should restrain and deal fully investigate this boat, people on board and assess the alleged crimes. Then hit this occurrence hard.
I very much doubt a Chinese ship with do the same in or near USA waters after Jan 20th. There would be no kid gloves used.
Aussie housing credit growth is just catching us up after our 2021 madness. Worth noting that the only way RBNZ economic forecasts make sense is if our housing credit growth gets back to the glory days of 7% to 8% annual increases in the latter half of 2025.
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