Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank cut its floating rate by -50 bps along with its First Home Construction loan which is now down to 4.94%. But it hasn't yet adjusted its reverse mortgage loan rate which stays at 9.75%. Co-operative Bank reduced some fixed rates. Heretaunga Building Society cut too. All rates are here.
BUSINESS LENDING CHANGES
Rabobank said it will reduce the variable base rate on its rural loans by -50 bps from December 2, 2024. They said borrowers using its fixed rates within its All-In-One loan facility have already reflected daily changes in wholesale markets that had priced in the expected cuts to the OCR within the last month.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
SBS has cut its i-Save account interest rate by -50 bps to 0.60% and its Call rate to 0.55%. Co-operative Bank has trimmed two key TD rates. Squirrel has cut its on-call rate by -50 bps to 4.00%. The Sharesies Save account has gone down -50 bps to 3.35%. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here. We also hear that one of the most competitive term deposit banks will cut rates on Monday. Time to lock-in if you are thinking of a TD.
JOB POOL KEEPS SHRINKING
The latest Statistics NZ figures show there are over -35,000 fewer filled jobs in the country than a year ago. This is a seventh consecutive month of job retreats (although in raw terms they rose in October).
HOUSING MARKET THAWS
The Reserve Bank has raised its 2025 house price growth forecast to +7% in 2025. The latest monthly figures show a seasonally adjusted rise of +3.3% in committed mortgages. And investors are now taking the biggest share of mortgages since early 2021. But an ageing and wavering population will keep a lid on a full return to high-froth. More here.
IT MIGHT BE TOUGH BUT BUSINESS MANAGERS ARE VERY UPBEAT
The ANZ business confidence survey was little changed in its November survey. The very high general confidence level slipped just minorly. The 'own activity' assessment actually rose again, pushing it to a higher level and a new ten year high.
NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. Gentrack, Tower and Vista led the gains but were overwhelmed by Ryman, F&P Healthcare & Genesis, which took the NZX50 down -1.2% at 3pm.
SKY HIGH DEMAND, LOWER YIELDS
There was huge demand for the NZGB bond tender today, enough to drive the YTMs lower for the two big ones. The $250 bln April 2029 attracted 41 bids worth $832 mln. This maturity was offered last week as well, and the yield fell from 4.16% last week to 3.95% at this event. The $175 mln April 2033 g also got 41 bids and they were worth $673 mln. It has been 22 weeks since this maturity was offered, yet the yeild fell to 4.37% from 4.65%. Along with the small May 2041 maturity, all up $1.776 bln was bid for the $500 mln available.
LOCAL INSURER MAKES PROGRESS
Tower is making market share progress. Their premiums close in on $600 mln, up +15%. The CEO says premium rises will stabilise as inflation comes down.
WESTPAC NZ'S ACTING EXECUTIVES
Westpac NZ has announced three "acting" executives amid changes to its executive team. The bank says James Grant, currently CFO for the Westpac Group's Specialist Business Division, will be Acting Chief Financial Officer from January 13 succeeding the retiring Tania O’Brien. Stephen O’Brien, currently Westpac NZ's General Counsel, will be Acting Chief Risk Officer from December 2 after current CRO Dirk McLiesh leaves. Stefania Esposito, currently Head of Regulatory Affairs and Investigations, will be Acting General Counsel from December 2 in place of O’Brien. All appointments are subject to regulatory approvals.
UNEXPECTED CUT
The Bank of Korea cut its base rate by -25 bps earlier today to 3.0% during its November meeting. It was a cut not expected and was the second straight month of rate reductions, bringing borrowing costs to their lowest level since October 2022.
HOW THEY READ THE SIGNALS
In China, the CCP top leadership is apparently very concerned about 'social stability' risks. A top national official has been out telling local officials to strengthen “risk prevention and control at the source”. He said that “it is necessary to rely on technology for police force and combat effectiveness, deeply mine the "rich mine" of legal data, strengthen data identification, screening, analysis and evaluation, and find ways to identify and screen out potential risks".
WHY WE SHOULD TAKE MORE NOTICE OF CALIFORNIA
apropos of nothing in particular, I was surprised to find that only three countries in the world have GDP larger than California - China, Japan and Germany. That is at current exchange rate. But if you use PPP, then California is #11. Having said that, it has the smallest population than the other ten. So on a per capita basis it wins there too.
INVESTMENT SURGE
Private capital investment rose +1.1% in Australia in Q3-2023. And that was despite a -1.9% drop in the mining sector. And you can see that in the distribution by State. New South Wales led the way with a +3.6% rise followed by Victoria's +3.2% gain. The largest falls were in South Australia (-10.9%) and the Northern Territory (-17%). WA was down too, but a lesser -1.3%. Large building projects involving large scale upgrades in the manufacturing sector, and large data centre projects, were a driver. Many companies in this survey say they plan an investment surge in 2025. Westpac described the trend as a "once in a generation structural change".
SWAP RATES FALL
Wholesale swap rates are probably back lower today, unable to extend yesterday's rise. Our chart below will record the final positions. Yesterday the 90 day bank bill rate was little-changed again. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -7 bps from this time yesterday to 4.42%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.06%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -10 bps at 4.55% while today's RBNZ fix was 4.50% and down -1 bp. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.26% and down another -2 bps. Their 2yr is down at 4.23%, so that positive curve is now only to +3 bps.
EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 has fallen -0.8% after clawing back some of the 3pm loss (above). The ASX200 is up +0.6% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.5% at their open. Hong Kong is down a full -1.0% at its open and Shanghai is down -0.1%. Singapore is starting up +0.2%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday session, and ending the week before the long holiday, down -0.4% on the S&P500.
OIL HOLDS
The oil price is little-changed from this time yesterday, now at US$68.50/bbl in the US, and still just over US$72.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE STILL ESSENTIALLY ON HOLD
The carbon price is very marginally firmer today at US$63.80/NZU today. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD SLIGHTLY SOFTER
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$4 from this time yesterday, now at US$2627/oz.
NZD FIRMS
The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from this time yesterday, now at 59 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.7 AUc. And against the euro we are down -10 bps at 55.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 68.3 and up +10 bps.
BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price has risen +3.9% from this time yesterday, now at US$96,328. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.7%.
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71 Comments
Two bedroom condo in the Millennium tower in San Francisco just sold for $720k.
Purchased in 2015 for $1.5 million.
Would have been better off renting I reckon.
And yes I know. The Mission is a dystopian nightmare when you leave the comfort of your apartment. But it wasn't always like this. Used to visit a corporate customer in that area back in 2011. The area was fully gentrified by then.
https://www.compass.com/listing/301-mission-street-unit-5e-san-francisc…
San Francisco twenty years ago was full of real trouble at street level CBD & surrounds, aggressive panhandlers etc. Haven’t been back since but heard that it kept getting worse and worse. That sort of compounding threat will quickly vacate any city. Bit of a pity, a beautiful city otherwise, of quite some historic value.
We had a bad incident coming out of a restaurant close by Union Square. Confronted by a very large bloke, just wanted all the cash we had. Two more of the same soon arrived. There was though an off duty, but armed, cop dining there, who came out and saw them off. Short walk then to our hotel fortunately. Just a question of wrong place, wrong time. Certainly not unique to San Francisco but it certainly has got a leading reputation now for such behaviour.
Via a stunning interview between Rogan and Marc Andreessen, It's come out that 30 tech and crypto companies being de-banked. No warning. No explanation. No appeals. Pure, silent government power. Documents are currently being released under FOIA.
Possibly one of the most unethical and un-American things that happened during the Biden administration with the fingerprints of Liz Warren and Gary Gensler everywhere.
“It’s a privatized sanctions regime that lets bureaucrats do to American citizens the same thing that we do to Iran — just kick you out of the financial system,” Andreessen said. “This has been happening to all the crypto entrepreneurs over the last four years, this has been happening to the fintech entrepreneurs, anybody trying to start any kind of new banking service, because they’re trying to protect the big banks.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-calls-for-deleting-the-consume…
I plan on listening to that interview, it sounds really interesting. Govt control of AI companies, like they did social media companies during Covid. Which is really frightening, considering AI is replacing normal search, so what you get told will be what you believe, with no ability to "do your own research" any more.
"We had meetings [Biden officials] this spring that were the most alarming meetings I've ever been in. Where they were taking us through their plans, and it was - basically just full government - full government control - like this sort of thing, there will be a small number of large companies that will be completely regulated and controlled by the government, they told us. They said don't even start startups - there's just no way that they can succeed - there's no way that we're going to permit that to happen."
More straight up corruption from the coalition. Not even bothering to hide it anymore. Luxon the 1am tuna sachet it taking up to Trumpsville.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/business-reports/agribusiness-repor…
Really? Iwi have built a port in Opotiki which is a huge investment for a region that has traditionally struggled, the amount of aquaculture opportunities are enormous, with all the added employment and infrastructure that creates.
So, who is personally benefiting from this since we are throwing around corruption and crony capitalism accusations?
Like I said, I can't read that article. However, we are enabling one of our most economically deprived regions to scale up serious acquaculture investment. Mussels will only be the start, there will be kingfish and tuna farms in time. This is a great story, we need these all around the country - particularly in the regions.
Unless we can identify it, maybe we should hold off on the accusations.
Fed with?
From where?
Displacing what?
Sheesh, energy-blindness p.............es me off. There is NO free energy lunch. None. So where is the fish-food coming from? Which displaced acre or which starved fish-stock in the food-web?
Indigenous understanding of things natural. Right. It's extract and plunder like everyone else.
Sorry, but that is an ignorant - in the prima facie meaning of the word - comment.
;)
The food energy has to come from somewhere - originally the sun - and they must be displacing something else in the food chain. No other option.
So what is it? There is no free lunch in physics, and only something else's lunch in ecology. What is being displaced? Your comment doesn;t address the question.
Let me guess, you studied economics? That might do it. And the Malthus comment is not the snide remark you intend - he got it. Fossil energy has staved off starvation - food being energy - for an irrupted species; ours.
I agree with your sentiment & the risk isn't comparable to eg the sunk & ongoing costs of supporting a certain NI skifield with no snow.
Agnostium and several others cant help their kneejerk reactions with any perceived opportunity to criticize the Coalition however it seems that the investments actually date back several years ago under the Labour led Govt.
Well one side is firing 1500 health staff and giving tax breaks for tobacco companies and landlords.
They are not hiring a chief science advisor, and laying off a lot of government funded scientists, so yeah you are right, not sciencey at all. I remember John Key's quote on scientists "He's one academic and, like lawyers, I could provide you others who would give a counter view".
Well, the alternative hasn't been working. Almost anywhere. We could cross our fingers, and pour more money into it and hope eventually it'll actually improve something, or we can try something else.
And when the something else doesn't work, maybe team Red will have some better ideas and abilities.
I get that. If we're going to subsidise business for regional vitality, I'm all for it. But we have to be honest about what we're doing. The Japanese agricultural sector gets support from the government, even though they've doing it for millenia. And to be honest, JA has done quite a bit in terms of innovation, particularly in distribution.
Shane Jones convinced Cabinet to tip another $16.5 million into a mussel farm in Ōpōtiki despite it having made losses every year of its existence and being in breach of banking covenants for three years.
I'm sorry you find it hard to understand kiwikidz. Shane Jones is a member of the coalition and he just convinced cabinet to tip in another $16.5M into the mussel farm. Is Labour somehow in charge of Shane Jones? Do you support the $16.5M being put into the farm or not? You're the National fanboy and have been very very vocal about Labour wasting money. Is this a good policy by the coalition, yes or no?
It's not just the woke liberal left leaning Labour/Greenie (and whatever other comfort label kiwikidz uses to make himself feel safe in his partisan opinions) it's the bloody Taxpayers Union .... You know, the organisation kiwikidz idolises...
https://community.scoop.co.nz/2024/11/shane-jones-throws-more-taxpayer-…
Iwi did not built any harbour. It has still to be build!!!! The only thing what has been completed is the modification of the harbour entrance which was paid for by: "While the project has been made possible through $95 million equity funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s provincial investment unit, Kānoa" Read more of it at : https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-daily-post/news/opotikis-new-100-mil…
The only person who has an intention of building something which looks like a harbour is Chris Peterson and he is also the local EBOP vet and not an iwi. See: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-daily-post/news/opotiki-marina-devel…
Until then all the mussel boats come trough Whakatane harbour and are unloaded there.
A harbour largely exists now, it's the marina that needs to be built. Yes the barges come into Whakatane but eventually that will be Opoitiki. Sinec local iwi are shareholders in the venture you would expect they will eventually sort it out and process the mussels.
That's western capitalism - which is coming to an end.
Look, I have no problem with local food-production, and local employment - or at least, let's call it participation. It is where we will all end up, sooner rather than later. Nor do I have a problem with greater equality - indeed it will either be that or serfdom, beyond fossil energy.
But making the mistake of relying on fossil-built, fossil-maintained infrastructure?
And someone needs to understand ecology - every bit of nutrient is currently feeding something; mother nature does that. And we are already raiding the sea of biomass - indeed we are dismembering the food-web - and every time I cruise the East Coast, I see less birds. I get that mussels might co-exist, but nature has done that - learn from her densities (and remember, she evolved these relationships without 8 billion hungry humans wanting to intrude...
Apex predators - you mentioned tuna? - are essentially unfarmable without huge fossil energy subsidies; the EROEI is too negative.
Shane Jones convinced Cabinet to tip another $16.5 million into a mussel farm in Ōpōtiki despite it having made losses every year of its existence and being in breach of banking covenants for three years.
Whakatōhea Mussels Ōpōtiki (WMOL) is one of the largest claimants from the Provincial Growth Fund
Since the open-ocean mussel farm and processer’s founding, it has received a total of $52m under the scheme championed by Jones’ New Zealand First
Make of it what you will. Social investment? Crony capitalism? Incompetent leadership?
https://waateanews.com/2024/09/26/dole-no-option-as-opotiki-mussels-up/
https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/07/21/opotiki-pilot-scheme-assuring-much-n…
US drone shares skyrocket at Trump Jr appointed as advisor.
Strange as I thought some Trump apologists on here were saying that it was the Democrats that are the warmongers in the military-industrial complex's pockets. Strange, maybe Trump Jr's plan is to run it into the ground like his father tends to do...
https://nypost.com/2024/11/27/business/shares-of-drone-maker-unusual-ma…
Regardless, the idea that Trump is a pacifist is completely false anyway. https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/08/09/donald-trump-is-dropping-bombs-at-…
Forcing NZ nurses overseas. Back on track. Luxon winning.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/half-of-nursing-graduates-miss-out-on-job…
Classic myopia one can expect from public/private leadership in NZ.
Cost-cutting often begins with front-end critical workers and not the excessive layers of management.
This from a mate at MBIE: their 87 person HR team had very few job losses but the teams that handle workplace/migrant exploitation complaints got the axe recently with every 1 out of 3 roles gone!
That's right nurses, f-off we don't need you and make sure you pay back your student loan with interest when you leave.
775 nurses x $100k = $77.5m.
We've got billions to spend on tax cuts, roads, restoring landlords' dignity, hell our non-means tested Super will likely add another net 10k recipients at $20k a pop so there's $200m. Nicola has gone line by line on our expenses and once all our priorities are taken care of there's not much else left in the kitty for you I'm afraid.
Forcing NZ nurses overseas. Back on track. Luxon winning. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/half-of-nursing-graduates-miss-out-on-job…
Where are you kiwikidz? Not defending the coalition on this one? Starting to realise you backed the wrong team?
Why did Luxon sell off three properties before the coming boom? Does he not have a good business mind and will miss the boom? Or does he know the market will fall further and so is smart? Or is he eyeing up a new business investment to come? Luxon and co Health focused IT consultancy maybe?
Just saw that Link Market Services is now owned by Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corporation (MUFG). Not recent news.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/business-reports/capital-markets-re…
"over -35,000 fewer filled jobs"
What kind of speak is that?... "Over (negative) 35000 fewer filled jobs."
-34499 is one more than -35000, therefore over -35000 but then we have the word "fewer"...so is that then a double negative and does it means -35001 is one fewer than -35000
I give up, please translate.
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