Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No other bank has formally reacted yet to BNZ's sharp cutting of its popular 6 month rate. But app offers are changing. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
BITCOIN ON ANOTHER RUN UP
The bitcoin price seems almost certain to break through the US$100,000 level this weekend. And when it does it will push through the NZ$170,000 level too. It has risen +35% since the start on the month, and is up +132% since the start of 2024. The previous peak prior to 2024 was US$67,633 in November 2021. Interestingly, you can only "get rich" with crypto when you convert it back into a fiat currency, so you can use it. (Like gold, although gold also has industrial, jewellery, and dental uses.)
NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. The NZX50 hit a two year high gaining +2.0% led by a2 Milk, Investore Property, F&P Healthcare, with Fletcher Building and Oceania, Kathmandu, & The Warehouse leading the decliners.
BETTER PROFITS (?)
Pāmu Farms/Landcorp has updated its forecast net operating profit for the year ending 30 June 2025. It now expects full-year net operating profit of between $25 to $40 mln. This compares to the previous forecast of $8 mln in its Statement of Corporate Intent. Higher milk production, higher dairy prices, and firmer US beef prices are behind the improvement. Pāmu/Landcorp has assets of $2.2 bln so if it achieves the upper end of its new indicated range that would be a return on assets of 1.8% and a return on equity of 2.5%.
WHERE YOUR TAX MONEY GOES
NZOnAir has today committed $11.5 mln in funding to 20 local Non-Fiction projects, three-quarters of those being returning series. Included in that was $3.2 mln for TVNZ, $2.1 mln for NZME, $1.8 mln for WB/Discovery (TV3), $1.7 mln for Stuff, $955,000 for Newsroom, $448,000 for RadioNZ, and $300,000 for iwi radio.
MONETARY POLICY INEFFECTIVE IN CHINA
A leading Chinese economist says looser monetary policy on its own is unlikely to save China from its current economic woes. He says monetary policy only has a limited ability to achieve the rise in inflation needed to reduce real borrowing costs and restore confidence amongst Chinese businesses and households, arguing for fiscal policy to play a greater role. (Right-click on the link after opening it, then use the translate option, to read his analysis.)
CHANGING POSITIONS
There will be a federal election mid next year in Australia. More analysts are now thinking Australia actually won't get an RBA policy rate cut before then because the inflation outlook doesn't look too bright. But we will with the RBNZ almost certain to cut -50 bps next Wednesday. That would make the 'score' Australia = 4.35%, New Zealand = 4.25% and apart from the pandemic period, it would be the first time our policy rate was lower than the Aussies since 2013. (Interestingly there are some outlier voices thinking/pricing Wednesday's shift here could be -75 bps.)
COMMISSIONS REDUCED
And staying in Australia, mortgage broker Lendi is cutting commissions for its own franchisee/brokers in a sign of what may be to come for the mortgage broking industry. Lendi has CBA, ANZ’s external venture capital venture, and Macquarie Bank as major shareholders. Expect to see the trend spread.
MARKETS RELY ON HONEST TRADING
In India, Adani Enterprises stock lost -23% yesterday on the corruption allegations, but that is just the latest in a six month decline of -30%. In January 2023 US analyst Hindenburg shorted the company after discovering dodgy reporting in July, also alleging corruption. Since then, their stock has fallen -43%.
SWAP RATES STILL SOFTISH
Wholesale swap rates are probably a bit softer again today at the short end. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down another -1 bp at 4.38%. (Please note that the RBNZ is delaying the release of this data by one day, due to rights issues with the source, the NZFMA. The delay will start on Monday, November 25, 2024.) The Australian 10 year bond yield is -1 bp softer from this time yesterday to 4.62%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 2.08%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at 4.75% while the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.71% and unchanged from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.42% and up +2 bps. Their 2yr is up +3 bps to 4.34%, so that curve is still positive but now only by +8 bps.
EQUITIES MOSTLY HIGHER, LED BY THE NZX50
The NZX50 is up +1.9% in late Thursday trade, and still rising. The ASX200 is up +1.0% in afternoon trade today. Tokyo has opened with a +0.8% recovery. But Hong Kong is down -0.1% and Shanghai is down -0.3%. Singapore however is up +0.4%. Wall Street closed its Thursday session up +0.5%.
OIL PRICE RISES
The oil price is up +US$1.50 from this time yesterday, now at US$70.50/bbl in the US, and at just over US$74.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE ON HOLD
The carbon price is moribund again today because there doesn't appear to be any trades, holding at $63.80/NZU. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD UP AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$25 from this time yesterday, now at US$2678/oz.
NZD SLIPS FURTHER
The Kiwi dollar is down another -30 bps from yesterday, now at 58.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -50 bps at 89.8 AUc. And against the euro we are up +10 bps at 55.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 68.2 and down -30 bps.
BITCOIN RISES AGAIN
The bitcoin price has risen +3.5% from this time yesterday, now at US$98,354. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.6%.
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57 Comments
Maybe didn't hit your radar but this is pretty big IMO.
Sun Jie, a judge at the Shanghai Songjiang People’s Court, wrote in an article published on Shanghai High People’s Court’s official WeChat account this week that it is “not illegal for individuals to hold cryptocurrency”, even though Chinese business entities are not allowed to take part in cryptocurrency investments or token issuance “at will”. The comments were part of a case review for a recent lawsuit involving disputes between two companies about an initial coin offering, which is considered illicit financing in China.
https://www.scmp.com/tech/blockchain/article/3287415/shanghai-court-say…
I used to be like that too. You need to understand that over the last 15 years there are more an more believers and in 2026 there will be only 1 million coin left to mine and in 2035 99% of coin will be mined. At some point it will be like musical chairs when the music stops.
You don't need to believe in the purpose of it or how to value it. But not participating could be the most costly thing you do if the world becomes a place of those that have bitcoin and those that don't. Might as well be in to win in case that happens even if you don't believe in it.
Jesse1: "You don't need to believe in the purpose of it or how to value it. "
Anyone heard taxi drivers giving crypto tips yet? (I have.)
I think we're getting quite close to a tipping point. Beware the Greater fool theory !!!
Sure but taxi drivers and plenty of regular people got into crypto a few years ago also. Now with ETFs you have more larger portfolio investors allocating small percentages to bitcoin. You can also very easily buy the ETFs with margin. This is larger dollar amounts than what the taxi drivers previously invested.
Pacman_46: "You sound like you have no idea about what you’re talking about. "
You may be right.
But let's see... Of the cryptos that are fixed in supply, e.g. Bitcoin vs the 10+ 'established' ones, vs the new ones, why is Bitcoin so valuable and the others far less so when they all offer exactly the same thing? What does Bitcoin have that the others don't? Further, how much longer will it last? What are the chances of others catching and surpassing Bitcoin? What if the investors of Bitcoin suddenly sell out and buy any of the others? Or, sell out and buy some other thing, maybe gold?
I answered these questions for myself years ago by doing my own research. I see that BTC has eaten the competition already, and the opportunity to kill it has long passed. The value proposition is that it is the hardest engineered money to date, secured by the world’s largest and strongest computer network. Why would I want to preserve wealth in fiat or fiat derivatives? Some choose gold to retain purchasing power/hedge inflation, I choose a better version of it. If you understood why gold is a good money, you’d also understand why BTC is better. When you understand that, you don’t need to “cash out”
No doubt about it, BTC got a massive head start. And it has been around for the longest (but wasn't actually the first).
But what does it offer over and above the others? Not much in actual fact. The biggest benefit of almost all of them is their opaqueness. If the whole lot doesn't collapse in on itself (regulation will do it - and it must come) then there's a good possibility that others will outperform BTC as they catch up.
Just an aside, when you say "secured by the world’s largest and strongest computer network", you know that many of these same services are transacting other crypto currencies, right?
Ok so you've had bitcoin before. Perhaps you just want to feel better about not having it anymore and hoping it goes to zero? I do that with stocks I sell that keep going up. I sold Xero at 1.50 and then it was $3 I was saying that it was now overpriced to feel better about my sale and never got back in. Now it's at $192.
I've been on the anti Bitcoin side and I know the arguments but it's way more fun and interesting to not be fighting it. I have zero interest in any other coin. I have plenty of other more rational investments.
Who ate all the pies?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/maketu-pies-goes-into-voluntary-solvent-l…
What about the $1.8m to Warner Bros/Discovery?
That's hardly going to help their $41.4B debt and they aren't NZ owned.
Here is a link to a story on the debt for those that missed it: S&P lowers outlook for Warner Bros Discovery to 'negative' on cable TV decline | Reuters
So I trade currencies off a futures exchange. Every quarter you need to roll your contract positions to the next quarter. As the December roll is coming up in a few weeks, I set up my March contracts in the system. When I roll I will pick up a benefit of being long AUD and short NZD for the first time in over 10 years (because our cash rate is dropping under Australia's as of next week) This may actually cause the NZDAUD cross to start to move substantially over the ensuing months. If you look at the history of this cross when we have a cash rate under Australia's the NZDAUD is at the very least 10% lower than here. Now it's a benefit to hold AUD over NZD you may see the algorithmic trading systems turn their positions. I don't know this for fact but the NZDAUD has looked way out of line in terms of the fundamentals of the 2 countries for some time. This may be a catalyst. Time will be the answer.
Cheap credit as stimulus doesn't work well in many Asian countries.
For the majority of their populations, their ethos is generally "save to spend". Whereas ours is perhaps "borrow to spend".
Worthwhile keeping this in mind when people, mainly media, say their stimulus isn't working. I.e. the cheap credit aspects media over focus on is but part of the overall stimulus.
A pretty good piece from the most inconsistent economist in NZ (capable of writing trash one week, then insightful stuff - way better than the bank economists - the next):
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/tony-alexander-three-months-of-rising-ho…
Mighty badass Chris Joye playing dirty now. Aussie bank stocks look 58% overvalued.
Australia’s major banks are not just rich. They are the most expensive banks in the developed world, according to Barrenjoey analyst Jon Mott. The big four major bank stocks trade on average at 21 times their one-year forward earnings, which Mott says is a “world record”.
Since 2010, the major banks’ earnings yield has offered an annual 6.3 per cent return premium above their senior-ranking bond yields. Today that has fallen to a premium of just 3.2 per cent, which implies that major bank equities are 58 per cent overvalued compared with their average risk premium over the past one-and-a-half decades.
https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/bank-stocks-look-58-per-cent-overv…
“Interestingly, you can only "get rich" with crypto when you convert it back into a fiat currency, so you can use it. (Like gold, although gold also has industrial, jewellery, and dental uses.)”
David your comments are intellectually lazy and show no further knowledge into bitcoin than several years ago, parroting the same FUD. I would’ve expected you to be more educated into emerging finance technology, but sadly not. This site is becoming stale.
“Interestingly, you can only "get rich" with crypto when you convert it back into a fiat currency, so you can use it.
What if you convert into this crypto into stablecoins? Does this count as a step into being classified as 'rich'?
Your logic suggests that someone who is 'asset rich' in something like property cannot 'get rich' unless they convert their assets to fiat.
I guess they can always borrow against their property.
Now there's an idea.
It's also like saying "I will give you either BTC1 or USD10k. Which do you choose?" The 10k?
Warren Buffett just YOLO'd into $1 billion of #MicroStrategy bonds! Who would've thought the Oracle of Omaha would seek #Bitcoin exposure this way? This could be just the start, folks! Even the most conservative players, like insurance companies, are jumping on this bandwagon.
Thank goodness your are smarter KH...stay warm
So Buffet threw just $1 billion of the near $400 billion Berkshire Hathaway is holding in cash?
Why didn't they throw more if MSTR is such a good bet?
People always start suggesting Buffet has 'lost it' at the market peaks. Then the inevitable happens. And Buffet's back on top. (Food for thought ... An indicator pegged to Buffet and this bitcoin evangelist is flashing a warning for stock-market investors.)
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