Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
POPULATION UPDATE
At 30 September 2024, the estimated resident population was 5,348,600. That is a gain in the year of +64,800 or +1.2% made up of a 'natural increase' (plus births, less deaths) of +19,900, plus net migration of +44,900. The median age is now 38.1 years, essentially unchanged since late 2021. When migration is low, our population ages much quicker than when migration levels are high.
DAIRY PRICES LOOK PROMISING
Chinese buyers bought more than half (55%) of all product at today's dairy auction (especially WMP). This is unusual in recent context because it has recently been just over 40%, so a sudden shift. Low raw milk prices in China is discouraging production there and combined with very low powder stocks, there has been a clear shift to build back their imports. WMP prices rose +3.5%, but cheese prices were weak today. The overall GDT gain was +1.9% in USD, +3.2% in NZD. A good result that maintains recent momentum. Farm gate payout forecasts have firmed with these results. ASB raised its forecast to $9.75 matching the recent BNZ update. Westpac has gone one further to $10/kgMS - and said there is upside from here. More here. Histories and updated forecast levels are here.
DAIRY VOLUMES LOOK PROMISING TOO
Overall dairy herd milk production is up and remember this is the heart of the 2024/2025 dairy season.
COUNCILS ALLOWED TO INCREASE BORROWING
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown says the Local Government Funding Agency (LGFA) will now lend to councils with leverage of up to 350%, an increase from the previous limit of 280%. The Government's also set to increase LGFA’s liquidity facility. The LGFA is 80% owned by councils, and 20% by the Crown, and has an AAA credit rating from S&P.
$360 INCREASE OVER 5 YEARS COMING
Commerce Commission says higher electricity bills will be needed to help fund maintenance and upgrade of the electricity network. They say the average household faces electricity bill increases of about $360 over 5 years to pay for the upgrades.
NO MORE DEBT STRESS, MAYBE LESS OVERALL
Credit reporting bureau Equifax said October home loan arrears were unchanged in the month and still very low. Car loan arrears dipped in the month as did arrears for personal loans, although they remain elevated. Credit card arrears fell for a fifth straight month and are back to the same level of a year ago.
NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. Genesis Energy, Sky Network, EBOS, and the NZX have the biggest gains with Fletcher Building, Mercury Energy, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, and Kathmandu leading the decliners.
BETTER SITUATION
We make a big deal of it when prices leap, so to be fair we should also note that the wholesale electricity situation is now in much better shape. Hydro lakes are full, wind and geothermal plants are contributing better than usual, and the thermal backups are all but shut down. But also, demand is breaking any records, so that is helping keep prices down.
A LOT OF LITTLE MAKES A LOT
Givealittle is a New Zealand charity whose platform hosted the raising of $33 mln in 391,000 donations for 11,000 causes in 2023/2024. Perpetual Guardian formally owns the platform (prior to 2020 it was the Spark Foundation), and it is run (effectively) on a shoestring of just 12 dedicated people (about the same number as interest.co.nz).
MORE TRADE
After the unexpected September dip, Japanese exports rose again in October even if the rise of +3.1% from a year ago was less than the rises they had in 2024 to August. Imports rose too, but even more modestly (+0.4%).
NO CHANGE TO THE NOVEMBER CHINESE LPRs
The Chinese central bank left its November Loan Prime Rates unchanged at the new lower October levels of 3.10% for the one year LPR, and 3.60% for the five year LPR.
PAYROLL VALUES RISE FAST IN AUSTRALIA
In Australia, employers paid more than AU$103.7 bln in wages and salaries in the September month, up +6.3% from a year ago, and the first time it has exceeded AU$100 bln an any month. It part of a longer trend and is up +14.1% from September 2022 levels.
SWAP RATES SOFT AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are probably a tad lower again today. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -2 bps at 4.40%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is also down -2 bps from this time yesterday at 4.60%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp to just on 2.10%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 4.74% while the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.67% and down -5 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.39% and down -2 bps. Their 2yr is down -1 bp to 4.27%, so that curve is still positive by about +12 bps.
EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The NZX50 is down -0.7% in late Wednesday trade. The ASX200 is down -0.3% in afternoon trade today. Tokyo has opened with a -0.4% softening. And Hong Kong is down -0.2% as is Shanghai. Singapore is down -0.2% as well. Wall Street closed its Tuesday session with a +0.4% gain, the only one to do so among the equity markets we follow.
OIL HOLDS
The oil price is unchanged from this time yesterday, still at US$69/bbl in the US, and at just over US$73/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE ON HOLD
The carbon price is moribund again today because there doesn't appear to be any trades, holding at $63.80/NZU. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD UP AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$21 from this time yesterday, now at US$2637/oz.
NZD FIRMS AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday, now at 59.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.5 AUc. And against the euro we are up +20 bps at 55.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 68.7.
BITCOIN FIRMER
The bitcoin price has risen +1.1% from this time yesterday, now at US$92,025. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest also at just under +/- 1.8%.
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38 Comments
Chinese buyers bought more than half (55%) of all product at today's dairy auction (especially WMP). This is unusual in recent context because it has recently been just over 40%, so a sudden shift.
Watch the rise of Chinese dairy brands. And why not? Look at Japan. 4 of the 5 leading dairy companies are Japanese:
- Danone SA
- Megmilk Snow Brand Co., Ltd.
- Meiji Dairies Corporation
- Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd.
- Yakult Honsha Co., Ltd.
Next level down, only 1 foreign-affiliated player:
- Bel Japon KK
- NH Foods Ltd.
- Rokko Butter Co., Ltd.
- Takanashi Dairy Co., Ltd.
- Yotsuba Milk Products Co., Ltd.
Not being a mainstream broadcast TV consumer, happened to watch Seven Sharp on Mon as I was at someone's house and the idiot box was on. They did a short segment on crypto. Noticed that the segment had a skit of people discussing crypto at the water cooler.
Are they plagiarizing interest dot co perhaps?
A couple of months ago she said that Simeon Brown's colleagues called him "Golden Balls" as he could do no wrong. I thought she might have said "Golden Boy" but the person who was next to me agreed with what I heard.
Either way, it reinforced to me that she is not clever.
Viewing rental properties lately in Auckland ...some dreamers and desperate landlords out there. No ques anymore rather txt messages to see you will show up to the viewing (and being the only one there).
Hint to landlords if its from the 60 or 70's and never had any work done now might be the time.
We personally do not have open homes when we have a rental property coming available.
Most tenants we are finding now seem to be staying for more years than they used to, and many probably wont be wanting to move out as we offer quality accommodation.
We prefer to qualify tenants before we have private viewings otherwise you can tend to get some making applications you do not want!
How's the yields looking Man?
Biggest drop for ‘resilient’ Christchurch rents in four years
Canterbury and Christchurch’s average asking rent on TradeMe in June was $560 a week, which was 2.6% down from May.
Rent drops were more notable in the South Island, while both Auckland and Wellington had no rental change over the month.
Gotta admit i find these prices stunning.
People who entered the game a while back have good equity, its the inability of new players to enter the bubble that will doom it, as people leave the bubble, for Aussie or in a box, there is not enough borrowing power in NZ Left to allow current prices to continue to appreciate, let alone be maintained.... PDK has words about this...
Not sure about that @IT Guy. With average NZ household incomes pushing $150,000/year and net population growth running at >60k, it doesn't take a huge leap to see how $1m+ house prices are justified.
Add that a good deal of mobile talent/wealth see NZ life as a good hedge against geopolitical strife, overcrowding and climate change..
Interesting infographic re size of china economy
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/chinas-economy-is-larger-than-30-asian…
Security screens were being installed on buses from next month in the Central City and South Auckland areas, he said.
"Every new bus that comes out will come out with a security screen fitted as standard," Froggatt said.
Bus driver has fractured ribs, eye injuries after Auckland assault | RNZ News
Is there a point when we start prosecuting parents for letting their children enter such dangerous workplaces?
Is there a point when we start prosecuting parents for letting their children enter such dangerous workplaces?
Based on the actual stats on where people get hurt by that reasoning we would be prosecuting parents for driving their kids anywhere. Being in a car is much, much, much riskier than being in a bus.
Killing little kids, by physical attack, in family homes is an epidemic that we do not see in South Africa, is it a NZ thing?
New Police head looks OK, someone who respects the front line at last and not pander by managing upwards to weak and woke leadership
(Would have said with more intent, but it would have been removed)
I don't understand your point. You were suggesting that parents should be prosecuted for exposing their kids to dangerous situations, you gave the example of the bus. Or did I get that wrong?
The bus is actually very safe. Walking on the road, driving on the road and cycling on the road are actually much less safe. So by your logic we should be prosecuting parents for letting their kids do any of those things. Most crashes involve strangers, apart from the consistently tragic and far too common situations where kids are run over by their family in their own driveways.
The media does report on this all the time but New Zealander's have a weird thing where they ignore evidence when it comes to cars, bit like the Americans and guns.
Have a good night.
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