A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; fewer job ads, odd inflation survey result, eyes on dairy prices, Foodstuffs to appeal, swaps & NZD little-changed, & more

Who gives a rat's arse what the official statistics say - it's all about the "vibe" of whether you feel you are doing better/worse.

As long as rates, insurance, telephone bills, medical bills etc keep climbing and the average pleb feels worse off than they used to, that's all that matters.

I talk to my friends/family/colleagues and most everybody is feeling the pinch. As Metallica said, 'Nothing Else Matters'. 

harsh indeed,



"They supplied no accounting for the mental gymnastics of how or why they would fall from 6% now to 3% in one year. People are amazingly bad with numbers, and amazingly unaware of the data around them."



inflation actually went from 6 to 3.3 between June 23 and June 24, not far off what people are guessing, even if they do not realise that we already there

And how about electricity. My monthly bills will be going up about 15% from December

Agreed. The Wisdom of the Crowd has been well researched - and crowd averages can be quite accurate. 

A big issue is people hear the RBNZ's 'CPI' which is quoted ad nauseum by government and media (and neither really understand it).

But what really matters - because this is what people actually see - is the HLPI.

Should one look - even for a moment - at the HLPI, it is impossible to conclude that the RBNZ is in anyway 'independent'.

Or put more bluntly ... it appears that they exist for the benefit of offshore banks and their major shareholders. We're only consequently because we can be fleeced.

Non tradeable (aka "domestic") inflation is what people actually feel on an everyday basis.  Not the stuff that goes into the CPI like iphones with new cameras, or the price of overseas hotels. And non-tradeable inflation is still running hot at 4.9% so the "crowd" are not far off the mark.  Certainly closer to reality than the "official" (and rather meaningless) statistic of 2.7%.  

And those being surveyed place great weight in the competency of the RB under Adrian Orr

Agreed.

It partly depends on peoples memories coupled with their conclusions which can be objective ones. Which if their memories are good and their intelligence sufficient, that's OK.

But could also be subjective: influenced by what is heard/ read. Not so good. Because the media has an unwarranted influence above and beyond what it should have. Influence because each individual news item never provides a broad/ logical assessment of all the relevant facts. There seems to be a narrative which needs to be pushed.

Well said.

"Why this is important for the RBNZ is that expectations of higher future inflation can become self-fulfilling."

I would really like to see evidence that is actually the case

Do economists understand inflation outside of their textbooks and theory? They tell the plebs and media how it's meant to work.

CPI inflation bad, asset inflation good. One influences the other. Supply and demand is a crock of shit when you see how it works in reality.

Measerli bars....... the nutty and somewhat overly sugary staple of the middle Nz peasant......gone bonkers at the superchargeu -market.

Inflation at 3%.....akin to the words of a garden variety Real Estate Agent.....total BULLshist.

and the shrinkage

Regardless of your view, we live in a great country where people are allowed to express their views and no one it shot or blown up. Long live NZ.

Less than 1% of the population bothered to show up.  But if you really want to find out who is in favour and who is against, lets take it to referendum. Thats how democracy works, right?  We still have the same flag after all.  

However the Waitangi Tribunal has been layering principles into the Treaty for years including a re-write that introduces a partnership including as to governance. How is that to work? Status of democracy in NZ at threat?

Haven't read either side of the Treaty or the Bill. That said I take it it's accepted the Maori side (a language that never had the written word) and Pommy side don't quite say the same thing.

So some sort of chat to work out what's the right unified path seems worthwhile. Otherwise recently arrived Saffa and Indian fleeing racial oppression in their home country will pack their bags and head west to join the growing number of kiwi kids in Straya.

Take that forward, if there are no workers left paying tax for settlements, will it really matter what it said?

Not to mention a petition that got over 200000 signs in 24 hours. 

But it's much more a problem for National than it is for Act

Huh ..do they..?

To be fair, most people equate inflation with their living costs, which include debt-servicing costs.????

you talk nonsense.....not everyone is in debt

Yep 

And let’s not forget that while Unemployment isn’t high, we have:

- some low income workers getting fewer hours of work

- some workers on reduced hours (9 day fortnights)

- some workers getting much lower bonuses or no bonuses (when I was working for a consultancy many years ago getting a 10 or 15k bonus meant a lot)