Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
China Construction Bank trimmed their term deposit rates today. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
CROWN ACCOUNTS SHOW VULNERABLE POCKETS
The Crown accounts to September 2024 revealed some interesting detail, mainly where the weaknesses are showing up. GST receipts are down -3.9% from the same period a year ago, and came in below the Governments BEFU forecast. Taxes on workers is holding up as expected, but company taxes are dragging, down -10.6% from a year ago, and below that BEFU forecast. "Other direct taxes" are up strongly, up +27% principally because of higher collections from withholdings on interest income.
MORE KIDS, MORE CROWDING
2023 census data released today shows that Auckland is the center where most households have families (64.5%), matched only by Gisborne. Gisborne has seen a surge in household crowding since the last census. Auckland household crowing is also high, but actually improved in those same five years. The centers with the least number of children are Marlborough and the West Coast (less than 47%) - and these centers have the least crowing. One person households were stable at 22.8% of all households. More here.
POPULAR BUT WITH HIGHER YIELDS
The latest NZGB tenders offered $500 mln in three maturities, and got bids of $1.41 bln. There were 42 successful bids with 68 unsuccessful. Yields to maturity rose in all cases.
NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATES
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. NZX, Fletcher Building, and Tower lead gains while The Warehouse, Kathmandu, and Investore Property decline
PROFIT STANDSTILL
BNZ's net profit holds unchanged at $1.5 bln for the year to September, driven by lending and deposit growth but offset by lower net interest margins and higher operating costs.
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
The world's financial markets are bracing for the consequences of higher US yields, a higher US dollar, and higher US inflation. All these are starting to be priced in. After betting as low as 3.63% in mid September, the UST 10 year is now 4.44%, an +80 bps rise in just six weeks. The rise started when the 'Trump Trade' became a thing and is now only getting started. The USD's trajectory is less certain; it has appreciated +5% since the start of September, with +2% of that since the election result became clear. This is based on a pull-back by international US investors for 'safety' reasons. But it is unlikely to be sustained in an inflationary burst. Inflation expectations are the next thing to watch, not so much consumer expectations (because they will be as uninformed as the voting public) but producer inflation expectations, and PMIs are the best way to track those.
MARKET RATES FOR SOE DIRECTORS
The Government is bringing director fees for 22 Crown-owned companies closer to market rate in order to retain and attract high quality directors, State Owned Enterprises Minister Paul Goldsmith said. “Ordinary directors’ fees for these companies have been largely static for more than 15 years and have fallen significantly below market rate, some by up to 56%. This is creating a major barrier to attracting and retaining directors with the commercial skills needed for Crown boards," he said.
AUDITOR-GENERAL RELEASES NEW REPORT ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSING TOOL
Auditor-General John Ryan says national audit institutions are getting involved on a global scale in order to better assess government responses to climate change. The Office of the Auditor-General (OAG) released another climate-focussed report on Thursday which assessed New Zealand’s climate change response using review methodology that the OAG helped develop with a group of audit institutions. The NZ assessment found that more needs to be done to progress plans around reducing emissions and adapting to climate change in certain sectors. Another key finding was that public reporting on spending for climate initiatives needed to be improved. “As I have noted elsewhere, the current structure of financial reporting in the public sector rarely provides information in a way that allows Parliament and the public to connect the goals the Government is trying to achieve with public spending and reporting on progress. Climate change is no exception,” Ryan said.
TRADE RETREAT
Both exports and imports fell in Australia in September, something of a surprise. Their export levels fell back to December 2021 levels, and their import levels retreated when September is usually when they peak.
SWAP RATES MOVING
Wholesale swap rates are probably moving around a bit today, but we don't have good fix at present. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +2 bps at 4.48%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up another +4 bps from this time yesterday at 4.69%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 2.13%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +8 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.73% while the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.66% and up +12 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.43% and up +3 bps from yesterday. Their 2yr is up +10 bps at 4.26%, so that curve is now more positive, by +16 bps.
EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is essentially unchanged in late Thursday trade. The ASX200 is down -0.3% in afternoon trade today. Tokyo has opened with a +-0.4% slip. Hong Kong is up +0.2% at its open. Shanghai is also up +0.2%. Singapore is up +1.2%. Wall Street was up +2.5% on the S&P500 in Wednesday trade, after the US Presidential Election results.
OIL MARGINALLY FIRMER
The oil price is up +50 USc from yesterday, still just on US$72/bbl in the US, and just on US$75.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE STAYS FIRM
The carbon price is little-changed today, still at $63.50/NZU in modest trade. But that is still the highest level in almost 8 months, since mid-March. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD DROPS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$101 from yesterday at this time, now at US$2648/oz.
NZD FALL FURTHER
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this time yesterday, now at 59.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -20 bps at 90.4 AUc. And against the euro we are also up +40 bps at 55.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down a bit more than -20 bps at 68.4.
BITCOIN JUMPS AGAIN
The bitcoin price has risen +5.9% from this time yesterday, now at US$75,421. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been high at just over +/- 3.9%.
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114 Comments
Borrowing rates have bottomed and are now rising fast on the long.
Get the cheap mortgage money before it gone NORTH, BIG LEAGUE:
Rates & Bonds - Bloomberg
Maybe not immediately, but any reasonable person would expect further downward trends in retail lending rates if the OCR has another drop.
I'd say "sort your act out", but at this stage things seem a bit more on the pathological end of the spectrum, over "just having a bad day".
The RBNZ sets the tone.
At present our economy is screwed. I'd expect another 0.5% cut in the OCR. After that? It's all spin, but I expect lower still.
But I have no faith in the Aussie banks passing it on in any hurry. Fixing for 6 would be good. 12 if you're paranoid or seeking safety.
discl: this is not financial advice. (Just my general view.)
@ NZGECKO - Nice prediction attempt Dr Watson, but unfortunately you have not cracked the code. I am not this Winger person you mention, but clearly they share basic common sense alongside myself. It's great to hear common sense is still alive, albeit in small quantities.
You clearly haven't looked at the data have you. Everything is slowly shifting towards the favour of those who wish to buy, not the other way around. I am quite happy to tell you your predictions were wrong come next year. You sound like a disgruntled tenant, hoping your landlords property values flop along with their mortgages failing so you can pick yourself up a bargain. You will be bitterly disappointed.
Your over 50 years too late Gecko, fiat debt has replaced :real money" way back in 1971. You ain't getting rich off your hard earnt after taxed dollars.
The bitcoin price has risen +5.9% from this time yesterday, now at US$75,421
Repubs gearing up with a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Bill that proposes the U.S. buys 1 million BTC over 5 years - 547 bitcoin every day, which is more than the 450 BTC mined per day.
Of course, if this happens, expect other countries to follow.
https://cryptobriefing.com/bitcoin-reserve-asset-following-trump/
Quite a day in the market. Gosh that is one hell of a drop for gold. Are the gold bugs swapping gold for bitcoin now?
Best day in the markets on a post election day in history.
Russel 2000 (small caps) went up 6% today. 10th best day in history by percent, and best day EVER in terms of actual number increase.
A few of the smart people predicted that Gold will start rising when the Fed throws the towel in, in its fight against inflation. This seemed to be fairly accurate. Can we therefore conclude that Gold is being sold on the expectation of the Fed ending its interest rate cutting cycle ?
"Yes, I'm also wondering why Gold is dropping so hard today ? Does anyone have a good explanation ?"
Trump is going to make the USA "the crypto capital of the world".
Sadly. It's that simple. He can't. And it won't happen. But 'mericans will believe this. But short term? Who knows. But social media will tell fools all they need to know.
Far better investments (and hedges) around.
Always confuses me the FDI thing. So someone invests here... why? They want to get a return on their investment over time. So, their investment of X flows in to the economy and then their return on that investment flows out again. If their investment works out, our current account deficit increases! So why do we go looking for it?
It is interesting how it is going to play out for our interest rates here, as our economy continues to head south and the OCR keeps dropping, but with the wholesale rates rising? Will that rise in wholesale rates prevent some of the OCR cuts being passed through to us?
I think a high 4% rate mid 2025 was a reasonable expectation before Trump's election. Not, I'm not so sure either. But things will settle down. Right now, there is too much hype on the new president. Things will not be as "black and white" as people believe right now.
CONF
“To many others - the reverse is the more likely outcome. “
If Yvil is pushing financial advice, then you are equally pushing financial advice. Your comments have a track record of lacking maturity so you are unlikely to see how ironic your comments is.
Yvil is only expressing an opinion; challenge it if you like, but grow up and start wearing your big boy pants.
Cheers
@ Chrisofnofame - "Yvil, do you understand how much your 'expert' advice may cost people?"
It is much more likely that your "Expert" advice of taxing ourselves to financial prosperity will end up costing people a great deal more. Feel free to share with the group how that's working out for you?
You're all wrong.
All 'investments' (it's the wrong word, nothing is inserted/added) are bets on the future. Ones which expect a 'return', expect a bigger future.
There comes a point where that isn't cumulatively possible - and I suggest that point, if properly accounted, is well behind us. Sure, there will be some winners at the expense of some others, but under a sinking lid.
And eventually, the game is called off.
Irrespective of taxes.
@ powderdownkiwi - If your trying to grow your wealth by "real work being done", your about 50 years too late mate. Have you looked at the average Stats of those who try to save save save their hard earnt after tax dollars towards their retirement? It's pretty piss poor.
You most likely will eventually pass on poor eith no legacy to pass on to the future generation, esepcially with that mindset, but hey at least you'll pass with your pride in tack knowing you lived your life to the fullest by "real work being done". Good on you for standing up for what you believe.
Yes, for this iteration of modernity.
But no, for humanity.
I don't get as sucked-into societal formats as some - my partner and I have never thought 'marriage' was anything more than a control-the-masses contrivance; just got on with being a couple, 44 years ago.... Funny to note those pouring out libertarian tat, then admitting to abject conformity.
As to what to do from here; there is a need to assess the carrying capacity of NZ (and the planet) and get there with as little pain as possible (we're about 6-7billion overshot, ex fossil energy and prime resource stocks). Then sort food-production (the most important energy capture) to be long-term-maintainable ex fossil energy. That will soak up many who currently do f-all constructive, in cities. Given the lack of fossil energy, they will relocate to nearer the food-producing places (a reversal of the last 200 years.
Ultimately, we will end up in some simple form, consumption-wise. Einstein (not a man known for stupidity) famously said WW4 would be fought with sticks and stones. We can predict that some of the reversal will resemble what we did on the way up, but that's a crude measure; I double we'll re-invent lead type or jack-plug phone-exchanges. What we WILL have is what those on the way up didn't; knowledge (if we can keep it, past internet collapse) and processed materials (Ford Rangers for instance) which can be repurposed. That repurposing will likely last about 100 years - long enough for it to be a profession.
And the mainstream narrative will have to be re-written. We need one which doesn't think we're above the habitat we all need, to stay alive.
Notice money doesn't figure in there? It's ALL physical actions.
@ powderdownkiwi - A lot of words in there, but its not clear what you suggest that we do from here?
Mostly climate alarming. You do realise that climates change right? & that they can & will continue to change with or without human existence.
Youve mentioned Ex fossil fuels/energy quite a bit. What are you suggesting with this?
You do realize that going electric isn't going to solve the "limited fossils fuels" issue right? Take for instance just one electric car battery - 500 Tons of Ore to refine 25 lbs. Of Lithium, 900 to 1000 gal. of fuel to move the Ore. Lithium is refined by using Sulfuric Acid. The mine at Thacker Pass requires 75 semi loads of Acid a day. One electric battery for a Tesla requires 25 lbs of Lithium, 60 lbs. of Nickle, 44 lbs. of Manganese, 30 lbs. of Cobalt, 200 lbs. of Copper, 400 lbs. of Aluminum, steel & plastic. To make one battery takes tremendous amounts of energy supplied by coal, nuclear or gas fired power plants. If you believe that this is green energy, we are in trouble.
You mentioned Einstein describing WW4 as being fought with sticks & stones. Einstein, although a great man with many methods that will stand the test of time, his idea of war is likely outdated. Einstein died in 1955, well before internet, smart phones, & the technology we have now.
Had he been alive today, he would likely consider the possibility that WW4 would actually be fought with words. We are in a war right now. A war on words, a war on definitions, a war on speech. This is not like the times of Einstein, although somethings in recent times he would have found similar to that of WW2 - the separation, segregating, demonizing, show me your papers, isolation, ect.
The larger war we are in is not over in Gaza, or Palestine, it's not a physical war at all, it's a war fought not with guns or weapons, it's words. He who controls the media controls the flow of information. Follow the money, & you find control. You say money doesn't factor into it, but your just plain wrong about that. Money has everything to do with it. For those that have more money than they could ever dream of, the next step is power & influence. Hence why you follow the money, you see who controls the media, thus controlling the flow of information. Add to this powerful people changing definitions of words to continue their narrative, this has ramped up over the last half decade. Our very own government has been guilty of this to keep their propoganda going. If you truely believe that your eyes should be focused on Gaza, or Palestine looking at a war, then it is you that is distracted. Power grabs now come in form of clever slide of hand, not blown up in one's face. Like a theif in the night. Einstein had only witnessed a physical war, not a psychological war to which we find ourselves in.
"What we WILL have is what those on the way up didn't; knowledge" So your suggestion hhere's to crash the entire system, everything, get rid of all our resources, our assets, our passions, and start again, like a great reset? Because at least this time we would have knowledge to just start again from scratch? I don't think it's quite that easy. Try taking people's assets, or even their passions off them & just see how quickly the fight is brought to your backdoor. This sounds eerily similar to a dictatorship.
"We need one which doesn't think we're above the habitat we all need, to stay alive." What good is a habitat if noone is alive to enjoy it? There's also a difference between just surviving life & really thriving & living life. Sure, we can "get back to the basics" with just plant food, water & survival skills only, but what a boring life that would be! Life is to be lived! Not just survived. To live you require to consume. To not consume is to not be alive. A purpose filled life is to do more than just survive, which involves passion. Take that away to "save the planet" & you may have saved a planet, bit at what social cost? 7 billion bored individuals all just surviving & consuming minimal amounts? Sounds more like a Hunger Games theory.
Those looking at long dated bonds, while drawing conclusions based upon short term movements, need to be very careful. The big players in that space take hedging cover until the long dated bonds mature (while making trading profits from the silly in the interim.)
You can be chewed up and spat out if you don't know what you are doing. (Likewise to those commenting on short term movements.)
Take care.
Richie Torres (Democrat Rep for New York's 15th congressional district, South Bronx. First openly gay Afro-Latino member of Congress, as well as one of the first openly gay black men elected to the House):
"Donald Trump has no greater friend than the far left, which has managed to alienate historic numbers of Latinos, Blacks, Asians, and Jews from the Democratic Party with absurdities like “Defund the Police” or “From the River to the Sea” or “Latinx.”
"There is more to lose than there is to gain politically from pandering to a far left that is more representative of Twitter, Twitch, and TikTok than it is of the real world. The working class is not buying the ivory-towered nonsense that the far left is selling."
Some of our politicians should take notes.
Somewhat ironically, the "MSM" are now a source of entertainment in their own right rather than any sort of credible news platform. Watching them digest the "dead rat" of an emphatic Republican victory has been delightful. Rogan and selected social media sources (I highly recommend "I am Link" who called this result and is balanced, ex-RFK press secretary) where we get our news, we are no longer buying the propaganda.
a lot of people are now regretting putting luxon in, few more bad polls and a few more ACT policy wins then you have WP loose in 6 months could be a very interesting next election, (by all normal measure they should win it ) i don't know how NW is going to get around the ferry FU especially since she is now willing to pay for a small tunnel in wellington for the same amount
@ Sharetrader - Not likely.
National are still not as unpopular as Labour was & still is.
Labour has nothing good to offer, their last leader was a draconian tyrant. A majority of people grew bored & angry with by the time her time was up, not a single entity was left un angered by her from teachers, health care workers, farmers, tenants & owners, the lot. Even she knew the gig was up, having fled the scene conveniantly in an election year, leaving the mess to the current leader, who gets confused on basic biology questions, cannot even define what a woman is.
The majority don't want either of the last 2 Labour leaders governing, this was voted on. 75% of voters chose not to vote Labour back in a third term. They'd had enough. This doesn't mean they voted National, but if they really believed National governing would be worse for the country, they would've gone out of their way to vote Labour back in, just to keep National out. This did not happen.
Not that I believe National are the solution, but they are a much better option & a much more preferred option to the last 6 years of Labour. Again, this was voted on. Unless Labour comes up with something new, & changes their leader to someone more charismatic & clued up, especially on basic questions like biology, then the country simply cannot trust the governing at the hands of Labour. If you are hoping on an early election, or a re election of Labour come next election, you will be bitterly disappointed. It is much more likely that if Labour regurgitates the same stuff theyve said & done over the last 6 years, that National will be governing for at least another term, likely 2 further terms.
Now, if your uncomfortable with a less dictatorship style government in power, might I suggest that you may find more success & comfort in places that actively practice such on a much larger scale, such as North Korea & China. Good luck!
Roll on March and gowokes dribble finally drying up.
Currently in Copenhagen were the cycle rules, economy is gang busters, both parents get parental leave and have to take it, 5 weeks leave for all and very little unemployment..the Swedish are coming over to ework, bloody Nirvana and haven't even mentioned the hot women.
Lots of happy woke people here 😀 😀
@ Baywatch - What about what was written was dribble? More like it doesn't fit your woke narrative, & so a little basic common sense triggers you.
Clearly your a little more than just confused if your happy to admit your woke. The woke are not known for being intelligent, or applying common sense logic, but rather for pushing extremism ideals instead. Exactly what we just voted out. Clearly you are also triggered by not only our last election results, but the recent US one as well. Must make you squirm.
Most of your comments on here are envious complaints that everyone else is surpassing you in both wealth & knowledge, & how you feel its not fair that others have more than you. It's the insecurity of your dribble that is making you worried about common sense statements, hoping it'll be silenced by your woke cancel culture.
@ HouseMouse - There's nothing "socially progressive" at all about the far left. Quite the opporsite in fact. Trying to normalize insanity & wrap it up as a purpose filled life well lived.
Anyone who disagrees with their insane logic is automatically labelled as "a far right extremist" and compared with hilter. This isnt progressive, it's incompetence & immaturity to not be able to deal with a difference in opinion & social combat. If they can label anything that disagrees with their narrative as somehow "harmful" (which is another one of their buzzwords that means harmful to their emotions, their logic & their narrative), then they can dismiss both the person & their stance without actually having to explain their logic & their narrative. It's called manipulative guilt - they know their ideology is insane, yet they don't want to be called out on it. It excuses the behavior. We see this most commonly in the far left.
What else is "far" is far too many "activists". We all wanna appear like we stand for something, when in reality these people have forgone their basic common sense & instead stand for nothing. Just watch them, as quick as the "socially acceptable norms" change, they change their opinions & re focus their ideology based on their going narrative. Standing for something is usually consistent, you don't waiver depending on what spcial norms are currently trending, it makes it hard for people to trust you & your judgement.
These people should instead spend less time "activating" for trending social norms in a bid to look popular & gain social acceptance & more time focusing on self preservation & self progress. Remaining consistent with one's progress & goals is a much more forfilling life, & one will likely achieve a lot more than the so called "activists" as well.
What else is "far" is far too many "activists". We all wanna appear like we stand for something, when in reality these people have forgone their basic common sense & instead stand for nothing.
You're onto it, but dig a layer deeper into the psychology. The lack of common sense you speak of, which many see as blatantly apparent, is more so IMO linked to the progression of psychologically tying ones' sense of identity to their values, far too much so emotionally instead of logically. Logic would dictate one looks at an issue, opinion, new information, remove the emotion and reflect before forming an informed opinion and internalising this in a away that they question their own views and decide if this influences or changes their views on a particular topic, issue etc. Sadly the progressive psychological trend is to be so devoted to one's beliefs as if one was brainwashed, and be unwilling to even consider a differing perspective, or reflect and challenge one's own ideas and views. This is dangerous for he future of a democratic society, as with less logic means less informed votes and leaves an increasing percentage of the population ripe for being manipulated.
About those uninformed voters.
“Last night, Polymarket proved the wisdom of markets over the polls, the media, and the pundits,” the company said in a statement on X. “Polymarket consistently and accurately forecasted outcomes well ahead of all three, demonstrating the power of high volume, deeply liquid prediction markets like those pioneered by Polymarket.”
The house wins the spread if they 100% lay off... more if they manage to balance there book, gets harder if the market thinks they set original odds wrong.
Like a retail trading FX desk, they are not betting on movements ,just banking the spread.
TAB spreads are rubbish as they have to take enough to pay their license
Not sure what you are trying to prove here, profile.
Was it that people - half of which have a sub-average I.Q. - make short term decisions that agree with 'short term policy choices"?
Because that's a truism. No further proof is ever needed.
Let me know when the public (especially when they aren't guided by 'independent journalism' on social media) makes a sensible long term decision.
Somewhat reminiscent of the struggle the Plebeians had, versus the Patricians, firstly to get to vote and secondly to achieve political representation in ancient Rome which ostensibly had adopted democracy from the Greek system on the shelf. . OK everyone in the USA suitably entitled gets to vote but you have to question, and not a little bit, if that vote unlike the eventual success of the plebs, the then low IQ types, is of as little consequence and drive for them, as a toothless cog wheel. In other words whoever gets the vote simply spins on as before regardless. Lovely evening here, ripe for cynicism.
A Patricia is one of my reminiscences, had my vote at the time.
Yes, not much happened under Trump (not just because he's 78!) between 1016-20 - except that DC blamed him a few times, mistaking symptom for cause.
Re IQ - my old man said he knew that half the people must be below average - but it seemed to him it was worse than that...:) He taught me to think laterally, before any of us had heard of De Bono. Told me to turn a problem: "inside out, upside down and back to front". Not bad to 9-year-old. I thanked him years later - but he couldn't remember saying it. Most important lesson I ever learned.
Wandering a bit, but is there not some centuries apart concurrence here, similarity even if only abstract, the two systems, ancient and modern. Consuls or Congress and Senators alike in nomenclature at least, and performance and course very much on the same bearing. Out of which arose eventually Augustus the Emperor a la dictator. Splitz Enz - “History Never Repeats,” tell yourself that before you go to sleep.
What more can a poor boy do?
(Same source :)
If you read Jared Diamond and Joseph Tainter, the Roman Empire fell for the same reason the global North is in trouble; net energy reduction. There is an argument which say Trump will be better for the environment - a short sharp rev-up and crash likely leaves more intact planet than a slow grind-to-oblivion.
Excellent video from MaccyB on market implications of Trump win. Amongst other things, America inflation, but deflation elsewhere.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2024/11/mb-fund-podcast-what-now/
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