Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news it was a night of celebration in the US, especially for billionaires, and men pushing extreme social and religious views. The decisive second coming of a Trump Administration will free up new divisive narratives that will spill over globally. It is a great time to be a crony capitalist because your influence on a morally bankrupt president will be easy.
There will be global economic consequences - almost all of them bad for trade and small countries. Markets have reacted that way already. Impending isolationism is raising the US currency (which will hurt their exporters significantly), commodity prices are already getting a twist, Bond yields are rising, and sharply. And equity markets are rising on the sugar hit of expected lower taxes, ignoring for now the longer term costs of much higher interest rates and much higher inflation as new tariffs essentially impose taxes on US consumers.
The change in culture from a free and open society to one that will be bitter and vengeful will drive global consequences we won't like. But we will have to find our way in a renewed thicket of imposed and imported bile. For a while we will have to live in a fact-free world.
Economically, US mortgage applications fell -10.6% last week from the prior week, and that is their sixth consecutive retreat. They are now back to level-pegging with the low levels of 2023 at this time. Mortgage interest rates rose sharply last week, and are now likely to rise much faster in the future.
Trump's spending plans could add US$7.5 tln to American deficits over 10 years, according to one estimate, far greater than the current track. US Treasury yields rose almost +50 bps in October, when markets were pricing in a higher likelihood of a Trump win. Inflationary pressures from Trump's policies will leave the Fed with less room to cut rates, and keep Treasury yields elevated. The US housing market will be a loser. In fact, that is likely to be generally the case elsewhere because of sharply swelling US deficits.
American car sales rose in October to over a 16 mln annual rate. This is another metric likely to be challenged by higher future borrowing costs.
There was a UST 30yr bond auction earlier this morning, again well supported. The median yield jumped to 4.57% pa, sharply higher than the 4.32% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. Secondary market yields jumped as well (see below) as investors foresee chaotic and unprincipled public policy starting in 2025.
The Central Bank of Malaysia held its overnight policy rate steady at 3% for the ninth consecutive meeting. This was what was expected.
The easing of deflation pressures in the EU turned in September to be worse, with their PPI down -3.3% from a year ago.
In Australia, the Ai Group Industry Index retreated again in October with a sharp drop, especially for new orders. This index has indicated contraction for the last thirty months.
The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.42% and up +8 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is now more positive, by +18 bps. Their 1-5 curve inversion is less inverted, now by only -2 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is much less inverted, now by -13 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.70% and up +8 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.13%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up another +7 bps to 4.66%.
Wall Street has opened its Wednesday with the S&P500 up +2.3%. Overnight, European markets were down about -0.5% on average. Yesterday, Tokyo ended its Wednesday session up +2.6%. Hong Kong was down -2.2% and Shanghai down a minor -0.1%. Singapore rose +0.6%. The ASX200 ended its Wednesday session +0.8% higher, but the NZX50 slipped -0.1%.
The price of gold will start today at US$2667/oz and down -US$71 from this time yesterday.
Oil prices are down -50 USc at US$72/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now at US$75.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar starts today at 59.4 USc and down -60 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +40 bps at 55.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 68.7, and actually little-changed again from yesterday at this time.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$74,244 and up +5.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high at just on +/- 4.8%.
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200 Comments
Make America Great Again 💪💪💪 Woohoo, what a great night. It was always going to be tho. The morally bankrupt liberal left had nothing of substance. Painfully weak, pathetically devoid of any policy initiatives, their future is one of destruction and recriminations. A great result for the free world. Let’s get that swamp drained and the planes to Gitmo fuelled and ready. 🤣🤣
Don’t agree that the US consumer will be “taxed” by the tariffs. At least not always. Tariffs are after all simply another form of duty. Go back a bit when President Clinton slapped a duty on NZ lamb imports. The CIF price could not be lifted in adjustment because the product was something of a hard sell in the first place. In effect NZ exporters met the cost. Essentially believe Trump intends to price import product out of the market and somehow generate compensating production in the USA. That undoubtedly is clumsy and hardly simple to implement and the multitude of distortions that will arrive will not be ironed out quickly or easily. Trump is now virtually telling the world the USA doesn’t need them but if he is right it will take a lot of damage and a long long time to prove him right.
It's not 'fund' - it's: supply.
So maybe 'support' is the better word.
But the rest of the world is tapped-out.
We have seen the end of globalisation - indeed the high-water-mark was perhaps 1995. From here on, closed borders, bloc-alignments, war(s) over 'what's left.
No.
There were 2+ billion planetary inhabitants, and a largely untapped planet.
Now there are 8+ billion planetary inhabitants, and we're on average (some resources, more), half-way through the planet.
No comparison in dilemma terms, at all. Different ballgame completely. Political similarities - desperate poor voting for shallow promisers - and Lebensraum fur Herrenvolk should have sounded a warning, but otherwise...
Add to that the doomsday of 1929 had been deferred but the eventual impact also greatly increased by President Harding managing to forestall an event of the same characteristics some nine years earlier. Even so, then there was not the element of monumental debt weighing on global economies and the people. As a simple comparison those emerging from that slump were not in possession of maxed out credit cards and vehicles and other luxuries high on the hook.
I cant say that was a realisation, more a foolish and intentional grand deception by loading high risk debt onto those who shouldn't have had access to it, packaging and repackaging it over and over, offloading one's own personal risk each time it was bundled and sold further, until eventually the world realised the scale of the deception and the house of cards came tumbling down. We've been on a stimulus addiction ever since to try and stave off a harsh global recession, and currently we are slowly undoing the benefits of globalisation that have occurred since WWII which adds cost to resources.
The 'realisation' was the 'oh crap' moment that drove those behaviours.....the 'benefits' of globalisation are also the cause of the accelerated demise.
We have overshot our environmental capacity and there is only one outcome....how (or if) we manage that is our only choice.
Therein lies the rub doesn’t it. The people believed in obviously quite some majority that they were better off under Trump last time and will be better off again, this time. Covid and the aftermath revealed the USA population wise is more divided than united and hardly in a light and breezy state of affairs. What then if Trump fails to deliver on these current expectations? Much discontent if not fury in the masses I would predict.
The mainstream media opinionists have been found to wilfully exercise their bias and paid for propaganda to further their own & other agenda to the clear detriment of many/most people. A majority now do not trust the MSM & will seek validation or correction from a wider variety of sources.
Absolutely. To my mind, it's the comments section of this site that has enabled it to keep its independence. Editorially it isn't, although possibly better than it has been in the past - unsure, it might be just that I read less of the am/pm news content now.
However, it has been reasonably restrained in comment censorship. Less restrained than I'd have liked but I'm pretty hard to please. I'm thinking AndrewJ, the women that used to post a detailed analysis of property in the Hutt but had to stop, even audaxus.
Is it possible to have a reason field display by the supporter tick, freeform might be dangerous, but how about a few options - monthly staff articles, guest articles, staff researched articles, comments platform (I would select), resources (not sure, haven't looked but Kate mentioned), other?
Goods that can be easily substituted by domestically produced goods and already struggling to be competitive will struggle to raise their prices to cover the tariff. In some cases they will withdraw from the market leading to less competition and higher prices. Andin every other case the price paid by US consumers will rise. It's night and day. Sorry it's ECON 101. Think about it:
1) if foreign goods are competitive currently they will be less competitive with a tariff attached.
2) less competitive foreign goods means either:
a) paying more for foreign goods
b) paying more for domestic goods, as foreign goods are less competitive (again, economics 101, what happens to prices when there is little competition? look at supermarkets etc... in NZ for the answer)
And that is before considering that the exact same process will happen for all domestic goods that are produced using international supply chains. Either they pay more for foreign inputs, or they pay more for domestically produced inputs, because foreign inputs are less competitive.
On the contrary, Israel has saved lives.
What exactly do you imagine would happen if Israel was not robust in the way it reacts to attacks on its people and its land?
If Iran and its puppets had their way and Israel was wiped off the face of the map, it would simply be a prelude to an unimaginably large conflict in the Middle East between Sunni and Shia interests.
Tens of thousands killed would seem like a bit of collateral damage. The deaths would be counted in their millions.
I explained what the counterfactual is.
Sadly, many, many more children would die if Isreal was defeated.
Look at the dreadful outcomes of Arab on Arab, Moslem on Moslem conflicts.
Who is weeping for the 250,000 or victims of the conflict in Yemen, or the 600,000+ victims in Syria, or the 1,000,000 or so victims in Iraq - and counting in all those conflicts.
Further back, how many died in the Iran-Iraq war, and the war of separation between Bangladesh and Pakistan.
What is your counterfactual?
Israel is just another colonial state killing the natives. Unfortunately for them they're 100 years too late to the game and their eradication is playing out live on screens rather than being consigned to history books like most of the others e.g. Americas, Australia and NZ.
Another person confusing religion and DNA. There have been followers of the Jewish faith that have resided in the Levantine area for a long time. However, there is little genetic link to the jews who fled the Romans over 2,000 years ago and those who are now colonizing the area currently.
Based on your flawed logic every person should be able to go to East Africa, kill the locals and claim they are native as their ancestors left that area 200,000 years ago.
Mizrahi literally means "oriental, Eastern" (from the Hebrew word for "east" which is "mizrah") and was a reference to followers of Judaism in Turkey, Iraq and other Asian countries. The term subsequently began to include followers of Judaism from North Africa, Spain and Portugal. To now claim Mizrahi are a homogenous Jewish ethnic group that directly descends from the indigenous peoples of the Levant is just a fairytale.
The fairy tale is the word indigenous. There is no such thing. It's an out- dated primitive idea. This old tiring colonial agenda is nonsense. War and conquest happened in all cultures. Israel and Palestine is a complex situation. It's not about who's ancestors were their first.
Of course the thief doesn't want it to be called theft. The fact is the land was called Palestine and inhabited by Palestinians when zionist Jews from the US and Europe showed up and started killing them and stealing their land in order to make their colonial state of Israel in 1948.
The side focused on an ancestral claim is the Israelis by trying to convince the world they are not an invader but merely an owner returning to their land and evicting some 2,000 year squatters.
At least you're honest and believe in war and conquest and that the strongest should prevail. If that is the case then I presume you support Putin's land grab in the Ukraine also. What a wonderful world you must long for where the strong can just go around stealing from the weak.
I don't think Mr Chaston has worked out the dissatisfaction folk have with government. Which has all the nasty things he ascribes to Mr Trump. All of them. Already, before this election.
Let's break that down to a small local local small example. Some will say it's trite, but in an environment where folk need to hunt supermarket specials it's important.
Auckland ratepayers pay several hundred thousand dollars for some concrete steps at the beach. The system (aka the swamp) believes this is ok. And wants to maintain it's power to continue.
"I don't think Mr Chaston has worked out the dissatisfaction folk have with government"
I don't think people who believe in "draining the swamp" realise that the general malaise and unhappiness of the masses is due to their lifestyles deteriorating. This is a worldwide phenomenon, and it's NOT a result of any single government action, be it left or right. It's a result of not accepting the consequences of the GFC and throwing money (yes, by various governments and central banks) at any economic downturn, rather than taking our medicine and accepting a recession. Voting in a devisive despot will not "drain the swamp" at all. Trump will just make it his own swamp.
Once again - and like most others that don't drill into the maths, or only read stuff from MSM (both traditional and social) which is increasingly owned by very rich people - you have missed the major cause. Don't worry about. You're the product of $billions spent on social conditioning.
Meanwhile, back in the real world, Governments worldwide were captured by the mega-rich 30+ years ago. And ever since, taxation policies have ensured the mega-rich got richer and richer, while those that actually work for a living fight amongst themselves and can't figure out why life is so hard, or why successive governments never seem to achieve anything to actually make their lives better.
Government debt worldwide is ballooning but it is not being shared equality, in fact, it is more often than not directed to help the rich get richer. But hey, don't worry. The mega-rich that so many idolize will be fine when it all collapses leaving the workers holding all the socialised debt.
It wouldn't have mattered much who won. The process will continue. Albeit slightly faster under the Orange Felon.
It is a great time to be a crony capitalist because your influence on a morally bankrupt president will be easy.
You should make a Tiktok video of you crying, there are 000's out there. No insight or analysis as to why this happened, just invective. Even The Guardian was quite philosophical in it's summation. This was the Democrats election to lose and they threw it away with hubris. It turns out circumventing due process and swapping candidates at the last minute, putting up a deeply flawed candidate who should never have been there, insulting large cohorts of your voting base, insulting Christianity, relying on the Diddy inner circle and choosing a limp-wristed VP best known for putting tampon dispensers in boys changing rooms and calling 50% of the country trash was not good for votes.
There was no dimension Harris wasn't a disaster. Of the >3,000 voting Counties there wasn't a single one she did better than Biden in 2020. The young moved to Trump, Blacks moved to Trump and Latino's moved to Trump. The Dems have lost the House as well. A total rejection of the socially progressive policies and open borders.
Yes, the "morally bankrupt" President was a dead giveaway! The author has bought into the MSM vitriol. Has forgotten the Hilary post-2016 spurious claims of Russian interference, etc, and the persecution the Dems produced against a wide range of people that in the saw no evidence of her accusations being true or based in fact - this persecution was beyond morally bankrupt - it was evil.
David's assessment is not much different to what is being said around the world.
What isn't being said outside of academic economic circles (yet!) is that a full implementation of the President's policies - not dissimilar to those implemented around the world in the 1920s - could produce the same result.
@ talking sense - "Do the democrats now not believe in democracy?"
Only when it's conveniant to them & fits their narrative they've been trained to parrot. We have the same in NZ. Both the biast paid off media & leftists are still in total melt down mode & shock that Labour didn't won. They have no idea how that's even possible, they were sure they had it in the bag. Their delusions, much like the democrats, is what stops them from seeing sound logic & reasoning.
This train has been in motion since James Watt invented the steam engine, PDK would probably say since the dawn of agriculture even. What happened to coal in the 20's is effectively happening to oil now. As a result, there is a civilizational symmetry playing out. World powers are fighting over resources and trying to keep their system going at the expense of others. War and conflict is a given but not because of Trump, you give him too much credit. Global conflict has been doing nicely in his absence you should note. It's circling the drain time.
Not true;
"If we consider the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Gulf War, the war in Afghanistan and the Iraq War, Trump joins Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, John F. Kennedy and Dwight D. Eisenhower in not having officially brought the United States into a new war since 1945."
https://www.reuters.com/article/world/fact-check-which-us-presidents-le…
Try not to buy into the Trump propaganda BS.
And Reagan broke the back of the USSR which led to an unprecedented period of peace.
So you are choosing to ignore the mealy-mouthed promises by the Bush Sr administration which were made to Yeltsin during the early 1990s', the overthrow of Viktor Yanukovych with likely outside support and the bellicose posturing of Europeans (especially the UK) and it is simply just Mr Putin? What happened when aggressive forces were on the borders of the US, please remind us if that was okay with the Americans?
Oh FFS! Putins invasion of the Donbas after his takeover of Crimea started the Ukraine war. Making neighbouring states dysfunctional is a Kremlin specialty. Transnistria, Ossetia, Abkhazia, Donbas, all violent annexations of foreign territory by Kremlin mafia to stop peaceful independence breaking out.
Quite the contrary, Observer.
I agree with David Chaston's opening paragraph...
"The decisive second coming of a Trump Administration will free up new divisive narratives that will spill over globally. It is a great time to be a crony capitalist because your influence on a morally bankrupt president will be easy."
I would add one thing though - whatever the result of yesterday's election was, it was always going to be a very sad day for humanity and particularly for the entire ME region.
Two POTUS contenders, both compulsive and perpetual liars, who don’t have the faintest clue of how to address the self-inflicted destruction of their nation, fought tooth and nail for the Oval Office – tragically both are basically illiterate in diplomacy, history, geopolitics, and macro-economics.
The Demoncrats (in their actions) have been cheering for escalating two more wars (Palestine and Taiwan) just as the U$ and its NATO attack dog lose yet another war - this time in Ukraine.
Trump has come up with THE most idiotic and dangerous strategy I have heard to date – bomb the shite out of all of Iran’s nuclear facilities and ask questions later – yeah right – when half of the ME and Europe has been turned into molten glass.
Those of us with poor, or selective memories, completely underestimate the role Trump has had in the debacle that is now dangerously escalating in Israel.
His ludicrous Abraham Accords made the entire ME historical debacle exponentially worse.
The guy is the absolute archetypical nepotist – the so-called “deal of the century” (the Abraham AccorDs you refer to) were all about creating a gravy train for himself, his hideous Son-In-Law, Uncle Sheldon (his #1 donor), the MIC, and of course ‘Goldman Sucks’ and the other TBTF thieving private bank corporations – his paymasters and stay-alive card.
Trump also tore up the JCPOA agreement between Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council – China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, United States – plus Germany) together with the European Union.
The JCPOA was the one positive legacy of Obomber’s disastrous two terms, in that it actually contributed to global security – and yet unilaterally Trump tore it up!!!
Trump also personally ordered the public slaying of the Iranian IRGC commander, folk hero, and 2nd most powerful identity in Iran – he even publically bragged about authorising this murder.
Soleimani’s public and openly celebrated slaying, sharply escalated tensions between the U.S. and Iran and set the scene for a further deterioration into a massive regional, world war, or even a potential nuclear Armageddon – precisely what the most dangerous cohort on earth (the ‘Christian’ evangelical rapturists) crave – well, guess what, this cohort are almost universally huge supporters of Trumpism.
Trump’s first-term cabinet appointees were chock full of these suicidal lunatics.
He now brags that he could bring peace to the ME area as a 2nd term President when he was one of the region's most destructive meddlers - he was the architect involved in guaranteeing that there would never be a viable two-state solution reached – EVER!
Last night on Fox there was a macabre and highly dangerous display of celebrating how Trump and Netanyahu "speak the same language" - illustrating to me how a 'bull in a china shop' approach has the potential to escalate into a hot WW3, and perhaps even a nuclear holocaust - which is precisely what the Trump leaning Evangelical Rapturists salivate over.
Aaron Cohen (gleefully) - "I think Israel is ecstatic with the result - 70% of Israelis support Trump - he and Trump were very close - BB has been around the political sphere forever - I know they worked extremely closely - remember that Trump assassinated Suleimani back in 2020 - so he would understand the language, although he doesn't understand a word of Hebrew or Arabic, he understands the language of the ME."
Great - meaning anyone who gets in the way of your agenda - you murder them in the messiest and most public way to act as a warning and then proceed to brag about it. Trump as BBs student, was indeed a very fast learner.
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6364311149112
Regards
Colin Maxwell
"Trump has come up with THE most idiotic and dangerous strategy I have heard to date – bomb the shite out of all of Iran’s nuclear facilities and ask questions later – yeah right – when half of the ME and Europe has been turned into molten glass."
Hope the Trump cultist upthread reads your post. "Trump the first president not to start a war".
Guess the adults around Trump kept the toys that could cause real damage locked in a safe place?
Yes Palmtree - Caitln Johnstone, a very canny Ausy commentator, laid the wilfull blindness out just after Trump's first term - not a lot has changed in almost 4 years.
... quoted...
"To this day, even after four years of evidence to the contrary, Trump supporters still believe their president has been ending the wars, draining the swamp, and fighting the Deep State.
They believe he’s fighting the Deep State even after he imprisoned Assange.
They believe he’s ending the wars even as he’s ramped up cold war aggressions against Russia, killed tens of thousands of Venezuelans with starvation sanctions, vetoed attempts to save Yemen from U.S.-backed genocide, is working to foment civil war in Iran using starvation sanctions and CIA ops with the stated goal of effecting regime change, occupied Syrian oil fields with the goal of preventing Syria’s reconstruction, greatly increased the number of troops in the Middle East and elsewhere, greatly increased the number of bombs dropped per day from the previous administration, killing record numbers of civilians, and reduced military accountability for those airstrikes.
They believe he’s draining the swamp after packing his cabinet with establishment swamp monsters."
.......................................
"And now he is leaving, with his imaginary crimes still held as real and his actual crimes completely ignored. Humanity will not be able to create a healthy world until we find a way to transcend our unhealthy and delusional relationship with mental narrative which so easily obscures our perspective of what’s really happening."
Regards
Colin Maxwell
"But we will have to find our way in a renewed thicket of imposed and imported bile. For a while we will have to live in a fact-free world."
I suggest using X. The best info leading up to this election and reporting of what was going on yesterday was by citizen journalists, not the utterly out of touch fact-full MSM.
Be careful Chris, it's not IQ that is important, it is the ability to think clearly and dispassionately.
Also, is seems to be that those wired for the latter, are a distinct minority.
This I've put up before, but I can tell by their comments, when people don't fit the minor categories:
Programmed to Ignore? | Do the Math
I am certain that Jimbo Jones, for instance, doesn't fit those categories. So we have a 'worldview vs reality' issue. Put differently; there was always going to be an evolutionary increase in sapience, couldn't be any other way. It was likely that some species got sapient enough to lever energy. It was likely that it went on the lever resource stocks, using that energy. But it wouldn't be wired to be aware of the ramifications, because evolution hadn't favoured that need. So it would hit the physical limits, not wired to anticipate the impasse. I suspect that is why we don't hear from, or get visits from, other parts of the Universe - the same evolution would apply, as would the same short-term irruption.
"there was always going to be an evolutionary increase in sapience"
Look up the Flynn Effect. We might have peaked.
Moving to New Zealand searches spike on Google following Trump win
I'm shocked, shocked .... (Apologies to Claude Rains.)
Well, once Trump has closed the border, all those south american criminals and drug traffickers will be heading to NZ to join their Mexican backpacker mate in the Green party. Promises of not just permanent residency on offer, but anyone with a good refugee backstory can become a MP in NZ. Set for life.
Washington Post: Trump’s supporters say his unpredictability is a feature, not a bug, of his foreign policy...
I do wish they'd drop the 'unpredictability' tag.
Once you get your head around how he thinks, he's completely predictable. His thought process is not dissimilar to a mafia boss: firstly, "what's best for me?", and secondly, "if I don't care, who does, and can I make them beholden to me if I gift them what they want?".
I do wish they'd drop the 'unpredictability' tag
I think that's true though. If you can't work out what the reaction will be to invading xyz, then maybe err on the side of caution and don't do it.
But I don't think it will work as well this time around i.e. he's not the complete unknown that he was.
We in NZ, for one, have one of the highest homelessness rates in the developed world but our political classes are conflicted to do anything but make all of it worse, so that a few at the top can benefit from it.
The do-gooder Labour gov ignored scathing reports from whistleblowers at MBIE on widespread migrant exploitation in NZ, so it could bring headline inflation down with wage theft.
That's how we treat our own and yet claim moral superiority based on how Americans voted over the last few days. All I am saying that NZ needs to come off its high horse on this topic.
Source for your data?
"New Zealand’s figures include refugees and asylum seekers who are looking for temporary accommodation, as well as victims of domestic violence. Most other countries do not include those groups. New Zealand’s data also included children and people living in “uninhabitable” housing.
By another measurement in the OECD paper released last week, New Zealand’s homelessness compares more favourably to other countries, although it is still very high.
In this different measurement, New Zealand seventh among the 38 member bloc’s countries for the number of people per 10,000 who are homeless, as defined by just either sleeping rough or in emergency accommodation."
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/nz-leads-world-rankings-of-homel…
For the migrant exploitation:
Immigration infringements: Dozens of employers placed on stand-down list | RNZ News
Tauranga kiwifruit labour contractor Jafar Kurisi will be on the list permanently for exploiting four illegal migrant workers, one of whom shared a garage with 19 others for four months, with no heating or insulation.
Immigration - the winners, losers and missed opportunities | RNZ News
It took three months for immigration officials to reverse a 'light touch' approach to work visa applications after it was told of concerns over lax checks and migrants buying jobs for up to $50,000.
The world’s in a funny state at the moment, probably due to disparity in income, assets, and age. The centre parties are becoming further apart. And while some think this is great when their team wins, it may not be so great for them when the other team wins. I just hope it doesn’t happen here; so far I think the coalition haven’t been too far right and I personally don’t think Labour went too far left either. However things were much better in the days of Clark/Cullen/Key/English.
Depends on who you call the elite! Is Bill Gates the elite, or is he a national treasure?
My take is that the average Joe in the west still expects a 1960s wage for doing similar work today, we haven’t upskilled enough and our old skill is becoming obsolete. I don’t think there is an easy solution to this problem, whether it be protectionism or socialism it won’t work. Why should we expect a high standard of living when we are no longer the most productive?
The following, for a start:
- Tax changes: tax wealth and capital
more, lower income tax
- mass funding of community housing providers, to significantly increase affordable housing opportunities
- a significant uplift in healthcare investment
These are the sorts of things that would meaningfully benefit middle and lower middle income households
So basically the socialism route (or whatever you want to call it). Decrease the size of the pie but give more people a bite.
Interestingly the middle and lower middle income households in the US just voted for someone who would do the exact opposite of all of those things!
I would suggest your comment actually highlights the failure of labels. What is 'Centrism'?
I suggest Trump is the result of the wealth gap. He lies, cheats, commits fraud, treats women like sex objects etc. All basic human traits. Unfortunately to many people he looks just like them, despite being wealthy. He represents to many people they can be as ugly as they want and still come on top. They can fight back at the 'establishment' that they perceive has held them back unfairly. Best of all they don't have to look into a mirror to recognise their own faults. Trump has given them licence to be bigoted, biased, misogynist, anti-government and any other negative trait they want. They won't like what they get in the end, but they asked for it.
question; does the movie The Purge just get a little closer to becoming a reality?
Remember the US applaudes wealth. Wealth is worshipped. Doesn't matter if you are a complete con artist, giving money to a wealthy person gives a warm glow to Americans. Perhaps they believe some dollars will rub off their way in the future? Trump is acting more like a televangelist by the day.
I am so grateful for NZs tall poppy attitude. Long may it continue, although we have become more grasping as time goes on.
The problem is that politicians moved the Overton Window to the Left, and left the people behind. The massive Trump swing should not be a surprise - its not that the Right have become more extreme, its that the centre has not shifted as far left as the Left think they should. What was the centre is now pitched by the Left as being Extreme - a point that Elon made quite succintly in this cartoon.
Pretty much it in a nutshell.
There's an old saying, "People should not fear their governments. Governments should fear their people."
As the divide widens, and the ranks at the bottom swell, and people come to realization that the bell curve of asset / income distribution is a very distant memory, the inevitable will happen. I feel sorry for my kids.
Bit of TDS going on there.
The 10yr-3mth yield curve normalisation approaching fast, (Some market observers, including officials at the Federal Reserve, view the relationship between 3-month and 10-year Treasurys to be more important as a recession indicator), chance of Federal Reserve not dropping rates as much won't bode too well for the CRE sector in the States.
Have to confess I bought more MSTR and IBIT shares last night. Trump has talked of making the US the crypto capital of the world, it's reached the point one doesn't even have to have faith in crypto to invest in it. Pretty much the definition of a meme stock, but when everyone is stampeding in one direction you don't wait to find out why, you run with them. Just make sure to stop before the cliff.
'For a while we will have to live in a fact-free world'
Mr Chaston, we have been that for a long while.
Trump - as I've long pointed out, is a symptom, not a cause. And the MSM had been peddling un-facts for a long, long time. For instance, how many report the depletion per day of finite resources like oil? How many account the tonnage of CO2 added to the above-ground habitat? Nope - they hide behind 'current price' - what is that?
The false filter has been reporting through a money-lens. An artificial, keystroke-issued proxy is NOT a fact (translated: money is NOT a store of wealth).
The US is further down the entropy road than NZ (and Eric Fryckberg yesterday reported that we spend 60% of our infrastructure budget, on maintenance - a figure which climbs with aging structures. US infrastructure - bridges etc - is older. They will never 'grow' from here; too many aging balls already in the air.
Their bottom-end has been feeling the pinch for decades (began with Reagan - who was also a symptom, not a cause). The Elite sucked the bottom-end first, and there are now enough being sucked (getting poorer) that they are a voting force. Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris are seen to be Elite, Trump (although he is) doesn't act like one.
But the MSM doesn't get it - because their worldview is falsely based on money - not the physical world - and they therefore buy into growth being good (if it wipes us out as a species, how can it be good?) and growth being forever possible (which is clearly isn't, on a planet creaking at the seams).
Knowing that the MSM story doesn't fit their realities, the increasing numbers of disenfranchised are going down rabbit-holes, in whole (intended) or in part. Falling past the Antidotes, as Alice noted. They too, are basing their narratives on questionable base-lines - although the idea that the Elite invented covid to vaccine us to death, is based on the understanding that the planet is hopelessly overpopulated, hopelessly overconsuming. That is the truth, and one which the MSM studiously avoids.
Long story short - don't blame Trump (or those who vote for him). Stand back and ask: Why Trump?
We have been living in a fact-free (more accurately, a falsely-based) world for a long time.
"Stand back and ask: Why Trump? " Everyone is afraid to ask that question and discuss it publically, especially the Americans. They did not and still don't understand that amongst world leaders he was a laughing stock.
What happens from here is anyone's guess. I suspect on one level the US has dodged a bullet. If Harris had won some Trump supporters may well have armed up and taken to the streets.
Sometimes I wonder how far people at the top would go to stay there in a resource depletion future.. would they increase resource extraction?, or reduce their own or other populations?. With the technology introduced during the last several years it's not hard to dream up creative ways to achieve an accelerated population decrease whilst maintaining some stability.
Plenty of left wing environmentalist types own them too! It seems like a gamble to significantly reduce your market; but then again maybe it significantly increases their appeal to the centre right, creating a niche market at a time when competition in the general market is going to go crazy.
There's been a rejection of Tesla in the US by the left due to their dislike of Musk. It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out - Musk has aligned himself with Trump, who appears to be more interested in catering to Big Oil than Big Green. Musk will spend a whole lot of time trying to walk the tightrope between being a Trump ally and not killing his golden goose.
Its hard to know if it is just Musk's ego, or if it is actually a cunning plan. There are more than enough republican voters in the US to keep Tesla going, maybe you can charge them a premium because you are their main man Trump's mate, and also get Trump to create a few tariffs to protect Tesla from international competition.
Elon can get even richer by only selling Teslas to 'Mericans.
What most 'mericans haven't figured out yet (or will ever?) is that tariffs on imports mean 'price' freedoms for those not subject to tariffs.
Or put another way, US suppliers will be able to raise their prices to just below a tariffed product. Who wins? Hint: won't be the consumer but the rich will make off like bandits.
btw, the battle over what is subject to import tariffs is going to heat up. For example, if a vehicle is imported in parts, but assembled in the US, where are the tariffs applied? What if the imported products are actually owned by a US company? Anyway, we can let the big boys play this game as the consumer will get fleeced either way.
I'm just not driving around in a car called the 'Seal' from a company with the lame ass brand name of 'Build Your Dreams'. Don't care what hijinks Elon Musk has been up to or how good they are from a value for money perspective, I'm just not doing it and would buy a Tesla instead.
We had 4 years of endless commentary of how bad/old Biden is too. And here we are still constantly getting comments about Jacinda and Labour.
It will be hard to judge Trump until another 20 or so years. Will protectionism etc make America great again? Its possible I guess.
@ NZGecko - "Anyway- mortgages are all going to rise bigly too.....get those cheap (less than 6%) locked in fast, they are all going NORTH!"
Given that we have an OCR rate cut expected by most at the end of this month, & again in mid Feb next year, it's almost certain that interest rates are on their way down, not up. Mortgages along with them.
Your click bait headlines are misleading. Do you have something to gain by peddling mortgages going up? A beat amiungst your socialist friends perhaps?
Yes WokeyBrokey........
Read the rocketing Bond yields and weep!!!
Rates & Bonds - Bloomberg
Mortgages have dropped......and about near bottom. Due to rise soon.
@ Gecky - Mortgage interest rates dropped just two months ago, & have yet to filter through the housing market. I'm guessing your not very up to date with real estate? It will take more than just 2 months of interest rates drops that haven't seen an effect in property before we see a rise.
Last bust in 08, started rising again 2013, 5 year bust & recovery. The boom from 2013 to 2021, 8 year. The most recent bust 2021 to now, just 3 years & we are already starting to get interest rate easing, Banks offering cash backs, & you think 2 months of relief that's not even hit the market is enough of a boom before mortgages are due to rise again?
Unless your talking about property prices are due to rise soon, in which case I agree with you.
To quote Charlie of Two and Half men, ..."I can sure pick em"... Applies to picking either of Trump or Biden and again if Trump and Harris is the best they've got I'd hate to see the worst.
Let's see what happened over the last four years. Aluminium and steel from NZ have tariffs still in place so a fat lot of good for NZ having Biden around. US still importing Russian fertiliser without additional tariffs but NZ have self imposed a 40% tariff.
Their problem is our problem. We all buy cheap tat from slave-labour, no environmental regulation countries. And even then, we're struggling to make ends meet. Now bring those industries home - with the wages we need to survive in OUR economies.
We can't afford ourselves; a point I have been making for a while now.
Billy Joel - We're living here in Allentown...
So you can live beyond your means via debt, until someone decides you aren't worth backing.
Then......
Seeing our way forward as New Zealanders is going to be very challengingly. However unlike the 1970's we have more export markets than we did then and if we can avoid being bullied by America to spend more on defense maybe we can go on much as we have done over the last six decades. I go for neutrality please! America has never been welcoming to New Zealand so just don't go looking. Instead shore up markets in South America and Asia. And remain on good terms with China.
"The change in culture from a free and open society to one that will be bitter and vengeful will drive global consequences we won't like. But we will have to find our way in a renewed thicket of imposed and imported bile. For a while we will have to live in a fact-free world."
Crikey, for a minute there i thought Jacinda Ardern had been reelected
No - she was about an (our) 'rules-based world'.
This will be a different Elite (the internet-reliant transnationals, which I think are 7 of the biggest 10 global companies, plus hangers-on). They will transcend national regulations - but ironically they still require local rules and enforcement.
Will be interesting to see how long that works
The geopolitical (middle east suez & oil Russia) caused massive spike in global shipping - if Trump can resolve war then paying a bit of extra tarriff will be easily absorbed into a better functioning/efficient shipping network - personally I am looking forward to 4 years of peace.
Great day for Israel and Russia.
Supreme Court will be f'd for 60 years now. Once they remove the chevron doctrine we will see the US life expectancy drop even faster.
Other things that will probably be axed: social security, affordable care Act, and any chance of antitrust laws being enforced.
Things that will probably be gutted: post office, public education, and the environmental protection agency. forgot the FDA
Mass deportation and tariffs will probably happen, ruining communities and probably will seriously affect US farmers.
Probably going to see an uptick in hate crimes especially against LGBTQIA, and lots of deaths from a federal abortion ban.
Rich getting a tax cut, and the deficit blowing out even faster.
More gerrymandering to help ensure Republicans keep winning. Things are not looking great.
The cost of tariffs on imports will be offset by the increased supply of domestic cheap energy. Interesting to see nuclear being pushed alongside oil and gas this time. Are there more jobs in running a nuclear power plant than a solar farm? Nuclear is going to be key for the hyperscale data centres needed for AI and quantum computing. New dawn for American Energy?
So you are suggesting that the US will (can) become self sufficient in all aspects of economy? Lets assume you are correct (they cannot at anything like the production levels they currently enjoy) what of the rest of the world?
I note the EU is also imposing tarrifs....will the EU also become self sufficient?
Do you think the US has the capacity to increase energy production, in the next 4 years? Unless they go back to coal I don't know if their fossil fuel production can overcome the decline of existing sources. If they really want to encourage more gas production, they may need the incentive of high export prices which goes against the cheap domestic energy narrative.
Trump wants to slow down the growth in renewable sources, and much as I'd love to see Nuclear back in the picture, 4 years is a short time in that business.
Trump would need the foresight to heavily support modular SMR production to have any hope of nuclear showing up in the stats while he's still in power.
Breakfast briefing: The Red Center delivers a morally bankrupt America
Really?
This result was the left refusing to vote. This is something we are seeing here as well. The question is why?
The answer as I see it is: The media are now so extreme that anyone right of a lunatic is the enemy.
Anyone with even 1/2 a braincell now avoids the media, and sure as anything wont vote left.
America had 4 years under Trump. The world survived - Stop trying to vilify the majority for just being normal.
I'm out.
@ Noncents - So what your saying is that more than rejecting just Harris/Biden & Ardern/Hipkins, that both election results showed a clear rejection for extreme leftist propoganda & idealogy, including many people on the left themselves have come to this realization, that both countries have gone too far with the idiocracy & illogical ideology.
Yeah, that pretty much sums up exactly what has happened. Unfortunately there will always be loonies, but this shows we need to keep them & their insane ideology to a minimum.
So mean and "morally bankrupt" to actually police one's borders, quota incoming migrants and vet them properly?
https://population.org.au/video/immigration-world-poverty-and-gumballs/
On this issue alone, common sense prevailed in the US election.
Why would you assume it's this issue that makes him morally bankrupt? Certainly some would say so, but it's hardly the only item at the buffet.
I might start with the sexual assaults and cheating on his pregnant wife with a porn star, personally. Then I'd probably move on to self-serving nepotism and self-enrichment through his power as President.
Wow David, you appear to be bursting with the same partisan bias and "bile" for which you attacked your commenters the other day!
Once upon a time, media outlets reported events factually without the journalists adding their personal opinions - for example, stating that the new president of the most powerful country in the world, democratically elected (by a landslide), is "morally bankrupt".
This is why mainstream media is in terminal decline, having lost the trust of the people. I hope interest.co.nz doesn't go the same way.
Well done David - great " daily report" as the sheer number of commentators attests to
and calling Trump morally bankrupt is factually accurate
In my opinion Mainstream media is also in decline because it fails to do its investigative homework and as a result provides information aimed at 12 year olds - and to often calls articles news when they are advertisements
Surely even a Trump supporter couldn't look themselves in the mirror and say "Trump is a morally upstanding person"?
There's obviously enough positive attributes and policies for the majority of US voters to overcome that, but this is just a crazy as a Democrat denying that Biden is old.
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