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US data quite positive; China readies ¥10 tln stimulus; Singapore PPI drops hard; German sentiment rises; EU pushes ahead with EV tariffs; UST 10yr 4.29%; gold rises and oil holds; NZ$1 = 59.6 USc; TWI = 68.87

Economy / news
US data quite positive; China readies ¥10 tln stimulus; Singapore PPI drops hard; German sentiment rises; EU pushes ahead with EV tariffs; UST 10yr 4.29%; gold rises and oil holds; NZ$1 = 59.6 USc; TWI = 68.87

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news the fiscal bazooka is reportedly now in place in China. And it is bigger than expected.

But first, US retail sales remain strong. The Redbook index rose +5.6% last week, its biggest gain since early September, and better than the +5.3% in the same week last year.

The number of job openings in the US fell by -418,000 to 7.4 mln in September from a downwardly revised 7.9 million in August and below market expectations of just on 8 mln. It is the lowest level since January 2021, indicating their labour market is cooling. Quits fell to levels last seen four years ago. Just how fast this labour market cooling is going will be known on Saturday NZT when we get the US non-farm, payroll for October. That is expected to show a +115,000 gain. It might be better than that.

The US Conference Board consumer sentiment index bounced back in October, confirming the similar University of Michigan survey earlier in the month. This wasn't expected however. Also surprising was the rise in future expectations. Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned positive. Views on the current availability of jobs rebounded after several months of weakness, potentially reflecting better labour market data in the month.

And here's another positive signal. The Dallas Fed services survey rose in October after being negative in the past, the first positive reading after being negative in the past 30 months. Ahead, firms there are optimistic, even if election uncertainty shows up in this survey.

The US merchandise trade deficit widened sharply in October to -US$108 bln, the widest since the disruptions around Russia's Ukraine invasion onslaught. As a proportion of US GDP, it isn't overly significant. This time, it is higher demand for consumer goods driving imports.

There was another US Treasury bond auction earlier today, this one for their seven year bond, again very well supported. But the yield rose to 4.17%, up sharply from 3.61% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.

Reuters is reporting that China is considering issuing a massive ¥10 tln (NZ$2.3 tln) in extra debt in the next few years to revive its fragile economy. This fiscal package is expected to be further bolstered if Trump wins the American election, they say. This is far more money printing that was originally expected.

In Singapore things aren't great. Their PPI plunged -7.1% year-on-year in September, following -3.4% decline in the previous month. This was the steepest drop since August 2023.

In Germany, their GfK Consumer Climate Indicator rose to a much less negative level in October. It was the highest reading since April 2022, with sentiment improving for the second month and exceeding market expectations. Income expectations strengthened and consumer propensity to buy reached its highest level in nearly three years.

And the EU is pressing ahead with a sharp tariff rise on Chinese EV's to counter state subsidies.

The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.29% and unchanged today. The key 2-10 yield curve is more positive at +17 bps. Their 1-5 curve inversion is less inverted, now by -14 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is also less inverted at -43 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.56% and up +5 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.15%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is just under 4.47% and up +2 bps.

Wall Street has started its Tuesday with the S&P500 up +0.3%. Overnight, European markets were lower, bookended by London down -0.8% and Frankfurt down -0.2%. Tokyo ended yesterday up +0.8%. Hong Kong was up +0.5%. Shanghai fell -1.1% yesterday. Singapore was up +0.2%. The ASX200 ended its Tuesday session up +0.3%. And the NZX50 ended its session up a minor +0.1%.

The price of gold will start today at US$2767/oz and up +US$24 from yesterday.

Oil prices are little-changed at just under US$67.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is down to under US$71.50/bbl. That there is essentially no-change is impressive because the US is buying to restock its strategic reserves.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at 59.6 USc and down -20 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 55.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 68.7, and down -10 bps from yesterday at this time.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$72,595 and up a sharp +5.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.1%.

Daily exchange rates

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77 Comments

Well worth checking out these interviews by NZ financial journalist Madison Reidy. She flew to New York to interview Michael Saylor at his home. She’s extremely well prepared, probably the best interviews I’ve ever seen with him, as she asks the right questions about what is really happening at Microstrategy. And if you don’t believe the thesis, he lays out the playbook on how to go hard betting against them. In fact he invites it. There’s two hour long Interviews. On podcasts as well. https://youtu.be/eThjo9wYoF0?si=WZxpdiMsaUx5ltmE

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I think you described that well. But personally it wasn't the best Saylor interview I've seen. In fact it was a little controversial: Saylor suggesting that the tradfi institutions are better placed to own BTC over the people. He did quite a bit of flak about this from my BTC water cooler community - a ragtag bunch of irresponsibly long OGs, maxis, anarchists, and purists. Question is whether or not he was taken out of context. My feeling is that there is suspicion of what Saylor represents - is he actually a puppet for tradfi interests. Only time will tell. 

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He's definately rolled those comments back a bit I saw. Regardless, you need a significant proportion of the circulating currency to be in some form of 'self custody'. That can be by individuals or companies or governments who want it for themselves, (Not holding on behalf). It's fine to have a lot of people holding it via an ETF or third parties, but what they have brought has zero value if the underlying asset it represents can't actually be used as designed by those who want to. That requires permissionless peer to peer utility via self custody.

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Not convincing enough for me but respect what you say. Ultimately, ratty was not created for Microstrategy, Blackrock, or even govts. People who understand gold manipulation should know what I'm talking about. 

As a speculative opportunity, MSTR has been fantastic, even if you fundamentally disagree with how it's being used. That's a boat I missed. Not going further out the risk curve though. 

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Seems like just yesterday (it pretty much was!) we were looking at NZ$/Gold breaching the NZ$4,500 level on its way to $5,000 as the base metal appreciated against the possibility of runaway Inflation (and much higher % rates to combat that), and a falling NZ$. So at this morning's $4.650 we are well on the way to all of those.

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Next stop $10k

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Yes inflation is set to surge yet again and there with it, will travel interest rates. 

Suck up them cheap mortgages...... while you can!   Then the switch flicks and rates rocket up.....

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@NZG what areas are you picking for inflation to roar again? Keen to hear the thinking behind the comment 

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"Inflation in everything you need. Deflation of everything your own"

The last time we had this happened, the average home price was ~$35,000 and the average wage ~8,000. So asset prices (property) could 'sit still' in whilst wages appreciated ~30% and 'paid the mortgage of ~$20,000 off. That's not possible today because the nature of employment has changed. It's no longer a labour dependent workforce that can bargain for 30% wage rises to pay off the average mortgage of ~$300,000. So as disposable income goes to Countdown, what's left will go to the ANZ to service higher interest rates and whatever anyone has that they can sell, they will. IF they can find a buyer.

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Wouldn't this happen every time we have high inflation and the central bank raises interest rates? And when that central bank has inflation under control and lowers interest rates, "everything you own" (houses) will increase in price again. 

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No.

The composition of our societies has changed. The nature of employment has changed.

The buying cohort that triggered what you describe has gone thought the system and is/has come out the other end of the Consumption/Asset Accumulation process. That same cohort is now into the 'cash it in to live' phase. And given Life Expectancy is now so much longer, there won't be much, if anything, to pass down to the younger generation to pay off their Debt via inheritance, either.

Those who need to buy what those people own can't afford it. Neither have we bred the replacement population to do that. What we have is massive Net Debt and this time the raising of rates to control price rises will feed back on itself.

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I agree that is a possibility. But it seems strange that it would happen so quickly, and that the central bank could fix this structural change easily with interest rates. 

Surely it would slowly happen over a decade or two, interest rates would slowly creep up and never go back down.

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Looking likely global population will peak 30 years early in 2050 at 9 billion. All of the pension fund and CO2 models are going to have to be rewritten. SSP3 is never going to happen (needs 13 billion people) and we are heading for SSP1. The Chicken Littles were so busy lecturing everyone they forgot to breed.

"Births in England and Wales: 2023 release shows that the total fertility rate in England and Wales has fallen to its lowest level on record, at 1.44 children per woman. 

The number of children born in England and Wales has been falling for the last decade and is at its lowest since 1977, while the average age of first-time mothers is at an all-time high."

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarr…

Data Points Peak population may be coming sooner than we think Birth rates keep coming in below the forecasts — the models may need an overhaul

https://www.ft.com/content/3862923c-f7bd-42a8-a9ea-06ebf754bf14

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Bollocks as usual, Profile.

nearly 40 years ago, my better-half and I sat down and discussed how many children - if any - to have. Even then, we knew the planet was overpopulated (I had a copy of Catton's Overshoot) and the choices were 2 (replacement), 1 or none. We chose 2 - but contemporaries chose none (for just that overshoot reason). We used to josh them that theirs was the very intelligence we need bred-on. 

We chose to reduce the population - and understood why. 

You, on the other hand, are still blind...

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Yep 9 Billion is still like four times too many people. The planet will self regulate, it will get ugly at some point.

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@BW Cool, doesn’t help me understand where the surge of inflation is coming from? If producer costs are decreasing (seems to be the case) and demand isn’t there (seems to be the case) then where does the inflation come from to send interest rates to the moon?

I agree that those with assets (houses) will struggle to find others to buy them (especially at prices they want) and the points you’ve made there are understandable…but the surge in inflation has been confused…insurance and local body rates increasing is most likely…but that wouldn’t alone be enough, oil is holding in the 70’s (down to $71 again last night), if that doesn’t spike then I can’t see it?

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My picks are the step changes of electrification and concurrent asset renewals across the country.

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I would imagine that a reasonable strategy at the moment is to wait for the RBNZ November cut (if any) then lock in?

Any surge in inflation won’t likely show up until mid 2025, asset inflation excluded of course. 

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If the market is anticipating inflation, you may not get a better rate than now. But why would that be the case? China will only be decreasing their prices, food inflation seems to have disappeared. 

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That is going to be my strategy I think. We have half our mortgage that we will be able to refix at the start of December. Hopefully we can lock in for 3yrs+ at a decent rate. Hopefully closer to <5%

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But - but- but - economists assure us they've got inflation under control. 

Hard to imagine, with 8 billion-and-climbing, all grasping for a piece of the ever-reducing pie, but there you go. 

You can't eat gold, though. Or the Mona Lisa or a GTHO Falcon; there's going to be some relative valuation adjustments as push comes closer to shove. 

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Likely a long process though, the sorts of people who're going to struggle affording basics like food and water aren't in the market for rare paintings and Australian muscle cars.

Fortunes will continue to polarise.

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Showing your age there PDK. Most contributors to these threads wouldn't know what a GTHO Falcon is. They should look it up, especially the 351 Shaker. We may have been ignorant as to the lasting impacts on the planet, but some of the machinery our fathers created was certainly impressive and fun!

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Hey Murray,you don't even have to have cubic capacity to be a winner - Peter Brock behind Torana GTR XU1,6 cylinder magic

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That was an impressive car, and then they made the Torana 5000. 

I had a friend who had an XU1. He was a wizz at tuning the carbs (triple twin barrels). Also a chap I was in the air force with had the 5000. He raced it until he had a bad accident. The most impressive I saw though was a Capri with a Jag V12 in it. That chap raced it at Mansfield. Had a problem with the oil centrifuging up the sides on the corners though. Straight line and it was very, very fast.

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I always liked those Jag V12s, stroke the crank and add a blower - lovely.

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Speaking of carbs I had never realised that the twin barrels had been introduced prior to WW2, Alfas, Maseratis etc. In fact so ignorant that I hadn’t learnt of Eduardo Weber as being an Italian. All that came to me from another read that explained his fate post WW2. A fervent Mussolini/Black Shirt supporter one morning he went for his usual stroll and was never seen again.

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That was a problem with the Jaguar engines. The XK series was worse until you undertook some extensive baffling in the oil pan and adjusting the position of the oil pick up.  Prior to this under heavy braking at the end of the Pukekohe straight oil pressure went to zero. Eventually we went to a dry sump and oil tank setup. Expensive!!

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The first cart I ever looked at buying was one of those pink Torana's, what a typical holden pile of junk it didn't even make it out of the driveway when there was a loud clunk because the suspension was stuffed. Cars have really moved on since then, the engineering on most of the cars of that era was horrible. I think some of those memories are viewed through rose tinted glasses, it was just great to be young and you were lucky to even own a car.

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Cheer up mate. Maybe look at swapping out the ift for ank in your username.

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Sure like you can swap the Fr for a W

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Good one mate. I do have acquaintances who like to play with different versions. One constantly addresses me as Frank the W..k. Quite impolite.

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You should hear what my friends call me! You wouldn’t believe it. 

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HughJwanker?

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That would be Huge Organ there Jumbo Jim.

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I think you live not too far from a guy I know, Hugh Janus. He was the butt of many jokes.

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Yeah owning a car was a big deal. I had to settle for a side valve Prefect with vacuum wipers, in heavy rain going down hill you had to put the clutch in and rev the motor to speed the wipers up. Funny thinking back on it.

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For years I ran an HD X2 Holden wagon (rare in itself) with a lumpy cam, ported, 5-speed Celica box and Dellow housing, Watts linkage etc. Turned off two 7-inch rims, turned the rims off two Holden centres, welded up a couple of rear wheels. Had fibreglass front guards and tailgate (from Auckland, from memory). 

Wasn't reliable, but. I knew every bolt on a first-name basis. Even cut two holes in the firewall with plates over, to speed up getting at the top bell-housing bolts every time...

But that love of engineering doesn't override the truth about the physics of our human predicament.

And I was meaning the artificial boosting of 'collectibles' - which has been happening for some time. That too, is part of the ponzi - when it pops, a lot of expectations will pop too. 

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I got your intention but the inclusion of the car was too good to let go. I built an early Ford Anglia and put a Ford 260 V8 into it, and followed that up with a 34 Ford pickup. Kept the flattie V8. Lots of fun!

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For a while there, a flatmate owned this:

youtube.com/watch?v=2pJNm1m28-g

It had a flathead Ford, Lincoln Zephyr 3-speed, offset  diff. and a daylight warrant (no headlights). We had routes back to the flat through the backstreets after the street-lights came on. I still have movie of it doing a standing quarter, and of it on the DN Northern Motorway about 1971-2. We used it to tow a Triumph Herald-based Mistral from Invercargill to DN - 9-foot towrope and we near hit the ton (mph). In the Mistral I sat offset in case I had to pass him...

Edit - just remembered his girlfriend was perched on the plywood over the diff, for that trip - long blonde hair streaming horizontal behind her. Those were the days...

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Got that on video? Especially the long blonde hair bit. Flashed me back to Bowie & “Sorrow.” Recall a  red Mistral a regular at Lady Wigram meets & others round Canterbury. Looked really good but think it only has a Consul motor, so it was never more than an also ran. The design looked almost like an AC Bristol needing to find another Mr Cobra/Shelby.

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Not that trip - but someone might. It happened to be Festival Week, and the crowds lined the streets for the Veteran Run to Brighton. We were going the other way...

Mistrals were based on the Austin Healey 90/4 slash 3000 body style, from memory. That one was all Herald; easy-roll territory. 

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Was that the Nissan Mistral or the Bugatti Mistral?

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Neither - it was a fibreglass kit body NZ made, which folk like us fitted to other chassis. 

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Ah a kit car.  There's a T-Car (Triumph Herald based MG TF replica) in Southwards Car Museum that I had a hand in building.  Not sure i'd feel comfortable driving it on the open road in this day and age.

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I thought I had an old 1960 Wigram program, but no luck. Found this though it doesn’t offer anything exactly technical. Emslie & Flockton , 250 King Edward Street, Sth Dunedin & 491 Princes Street, Dunedin. - are proud to present  The Mistral, New Zealand’s first kit set Sports Car. The Mistral with detachable hard top fitted is a Grand Turismo car in the modern style — comfortable, fast,safe, economical. Bit more blurb after that, all a bit nostalgic have to admit.

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That roll cage wouldn't pass muster these days. Would've been a fun ride though. Early suspension would have made handling a bitch though.

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Trevor Crowe built it about 1960 - out of his J2 MG. From memory it had 75X50 box-section chassis rails, and the Ford V8 cross-sprung front end went thru the radiator facade, forward of the real core. Back end was shortened left-hand-side; you sat with your hips pretty close the driveshaft. 

Was too short (J2s were tiny) and had a habit of swapping end-for-end. Never rolled, but; just spun. 

Cool, though...

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Thumbs up for a weekly inteerst.co.nz automotive article, sure makes a better read than housing.

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Yep. We were young and dumb. Knowledge and wisdom comes with age and experience, and occasionally more than a little luck. I had to grow up young when my father was killed. But until then.....

Try not to be too critical of the young today, they're only doing their version of what we did. One difference though, we didn't criticise the older generations for what we inherited. Memories of WW2 were still comparatively fresh, and under it all we knew it could all turn sour pretty quickly. Naively we trusted our politicians too much.

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It could still turn sour pretty quickly, many would argue things have never been this bad for a long time.

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Phase3

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For almost two decades now central banks have been battling deflation despite 8 billion-and-climbing all grasping for a piece of the ever-reducing pie

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GTHO Falcon, now you’re talking.

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Reuters is reporting that China is considering issuing a massive ¥10 tln (NZ$2.3 tln) in extra debt in the next few years to revive its fragile economy. This fiscal package is expected to be further bolstered if Trump wins the American election, they say. This is far more money printing that was originally expected.

What will they do with it though? The only thing they put money into is infrastructure and at this point those projects are white elephants. They'd be better off putting cheques in the mail to stimulate demand.

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Of what? 

The problem is scale; Bill English used to talk about the 'productive economy' as if housing wasn't part of it. But at the end of the day, the only arena big enough to consume the never-bigger-by-some-orders-of-magnitude production, is people building houses and filling them with stuff (plus discarding stuff ever-faster to make space for more). 

It runs into multiple limits - spatial, energy, entropy, material, pollution. As the global enterprise has, already. Money, on the other hand, is merely proxy; a wish. It is NOT a store of wealth (someone should tell Danyl McLachlan at the Listener - before he makes a complete fool of himself). 

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Their 1-5 curve inversion is less inverted, now by -14 bps

I still don't understand why it's news that when central banks lower short term interest rates, then short term interest rates get lower relative to long term.

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"Queenstown has seen a sudden surge in properties hitting the market..."

Why would that be?

"There's some pretty good buying at the moment"

 No there isn't! There's a sensible opportunity to sell. But when a place like Queenstown turns, there isn't buyer, almost at any price, to be seen anywhere.

"Luxury Real Estate director said he had been working with a number of clients who were looking to bring their Queenstown homes to market in the coming weeks"

Good luck with that.

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/queenstowns-mini-boom-no-one-needs-to-bu…

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Why might there not be a "Buyer at any price"?

Because most buyers need finance; a mortgage. And when a market goes into free-fall, lenders withdraw their services, because they don't know where the bottom will be to use as a collateral figure.

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I've Always maintained that banks/ lenders set property price by what they will lend a buyer as opposed to buyers, vendor's or interest rate . Perhaps we will see that in action 

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The only true news about the state of the world's economy: In Singapore things aren't great. Their PPI plunged -7.1% year-on-year in September, following -3.4% decline in the previous month. This was the steepest drop since August 2023.

All the other news strongly smells as 'manupulated' to suit the narrative!

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The Breakfast briefing stated...

"In Germany, the GfK Consumer Climate Indicator rose to a much less negative level in October. It was the highest reading since April 2022, with sentiment improving for the second month and exceeding market expectations. Income expectations strengthened and consumer propensity to buy reached its highest level in nearly three years."

Sounds like pure unadulterated hopium to me.

The entire German economy surely is in complete disarray as evidenced by VW shutting down three of its ten manufacturing plants due to the massive hike in energy prices, orchestrated by, you guessed it, the country that has occupied them since the end of WW2.

There have only ever been 3 consistent net contributors to the EU economy, obviously the behemoth Germany, Holland, and the relative minnow, Luxembourg - that's it - 3 out of the
27 that are not on the take, and now these 3 are financial wrecks as well.

We need to reflect on the root causes of this evisceration of one of the most fascinating and dynamic regions on planet Earth.

Uncle $am deliberately sabotaged Russia's long-term, almost inexhaustible supply of extremely reliable and affordable energy - this is the single largest factor, alongside their broken fiat casino financial model, as to why Europe's largest economy, and by definition the collective EU economy along with it, is headed for the scrap heap.

VW is the canary in the coal mine that heralds a very dark future for the entire EU region. This automotive giant that employs ~300,000 workers, and untold 10s of thousands of sub-contractor labour units, has come out and admitted that their entire domestic presence is in terminal decline.

Their CEO Thomas Shaffer has spelt it out - individual German plants are roughly twice as expensive to operate as some of their off-shore facilities. ... quote...

"We cannot continue to operate as before. We must find a joint and sustainable solution for the future of our company." - he admitted that he is far from sure that VW can even survive!

That admission is sobering enough in isolation but we need to put this into context - VW is an eminently well-established and capitalised business - how on earth in this current economic climate going forward is any other manufacturer going to hang in there, as the situation gets gradually uglier by the month - complete with ZERO positive indicators and, for crying out loud, only pathetic 'look over here' platitudes such as "much less negative".

Only two months ago VW was talking about 2 plant closures - now it is at least three along with...

* The downsizing of the remaining plants
* A 10% reduction in pay for all workers
* A proposed zero wage increases for 2025 and 2026
* An end to all allowances and bonuses and all employee perks

The entire West needs to remove their rose-tinted spectacles, cease with the regurgitation of hopium narratives, and face up to the fact that our imploding fiat currencies, allowing idiotic private monopoly money creation, and the resulting suicidal obsession with financial capitalism, have all rendered our financial model technically insolvent.

We are trapped in a debt-death vortex - and the trillions of toxic debt in the system mean that if priced risk adequately into the equation, the natural path for interest rates should be up not down. The only 'alternative' is continued money printing, to try to delay the mathematically inevitable - a strategy which would only suck us deeper even into the vortex.   

Colin Maxwell
              

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That, sir, is the post not just of the day - perhaps of the month or year. 

And elicits a question of David Chaston: 

'The Consumer Climate index for November is projected to rise by 2.7 points, bringing it to -18.3 points from a revised -21.0 points in October.'

Is that not still negative, DC?  

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Yes it's negative, you are implying DC said anything otherwise?

The quote above from DC "less negative", whilst i guess on a purely mathematical level you could argue that a larger positive number is "less negative" than a smaller positive number, the layperson i suspect would expect a 'less negative' number to still be negative.

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Thanks, Powerdownkiwi

And I didn't even get started on the global bond markets which is the dodgy foundation that this entire Western  Ponzi fiat currency system is built on.

This is in mortal danger now too, especially since under Basel III re-classificsation of physical gold as a Tier 1 balance sheet asset was a bull-horn that screamed some truly monumental messages...

#1 The BIS in essence announced that they are throwing all fiat currencies under the bus. Even they have finally come to the realisation that dedollarisation is now officially on steroids given that gold can be held as a zero-counterparty-risk balance sheet asset. Along with the weaponisation of King-dollar this underlines fiat-denominated paper as a risky reserve to hold for an entire manifold of reasons.

#2 The BIS and its member-owner national central banks (62 of them at last count) will no longer be in the business of disguising the organic market discovery price of the 'rock relic' by manipulating the physical gold market with the giant synthetic paper market. That is now  a hiding to nothing, as the physical price breaks out of the stable and heads for the Himalayas.

#3 There is a monumental splinter in the BIS club - dah Fed, decided that they would continue to bet the farm against gold. This is a huge call - they are simply in complete denial of a new emerging financial reality which is going to be based on sound money - IOW, non-fiat currencies.

The BIS knows that the current model is broken - meanwhile, the U$A clings desperately to its notion of hegemonic invincibility.

The transition and the birthing will inevitably involve pain - but only from pain will come the societal demand for fundamental financial reform. Moving away from fiat, and monetary units we can reliably measure, and removing counterparty risk will give greater stability in all commerce - from the individual right up to huge trade deals conducted by international companies, and for entire country trade settlements as well.

Instead of a piece of paper that relies on trust, with zero inherent value, the new system will be able to be accurately measured and counted on - a major win that should guarantee to create a more placid and productive world.

As the RoW realises that in purchasing Western debt in the form of sovereign treasury bonds, they are in reality helping to finance their own victimhood, just as we do when we allow money creation by giant monopolistic private banking cartels, this too will promote a transition away from fiat denominated reserve assets. 

What this transition will also reveal is that the real yield on government bonds is almost always negative and if you account for inflation accurately, the longer the bond duration the more appalling the deal is if they are held to maturity. This means carnage in terms of real interest yields received for the duration, and even more blood on the floor at the end when you retrieve your original capital after 10 years, let alone 30 years.

Gold and oil have already been partially remonetized with huge deals underway such as Iran awarding China a multi-billion dollar contract to modernise their biggest airport - and also deals spanning the globe with BRICS countries paying for oil with a digital yuan-bond, or petro-yuan bond, and immediately convertible into physical gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange.

The Western-centric SWIFT payment system was of course weaponised/politicised too, and now the BRICS block has offered M-Bridge, a multiple central bank digital currency platform that supports real-time cross-border payments and foreign exchange transactions using CBDCs, based on a blockchain technology called the MBridge Ledger.

MBridge is currently being developed by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority  (HKMA), the Bank of Thailand (BoT), the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE), the Digital Currency Authority of the Peoples Bank of China (PBC DCI), and the BIS Innovation Hub Hong Kong Centre (BISIH Hong Kong Centre). The Saudi Central Bank also joined in June 2024.

There is a current discussion of a BRICS Bridge international payment system proposed by Russia - the mechanism would see BRICS member central banks issue digital financial assets (DFAs), which would in turn peg their value to the national currencies of the participating countries.

Settlement participants – eg, companies involved in cross-border BRICS transactions, will use this infrastructure as an alternative to traditional settlements for making payments. This does not mean a single settlement such as a digital currency is being put into position, but that a technological solution to simplify and improve settlement procedures already exists and with cooperation can be put into operation. This procedure also sidesteps the SWIFT network.

The key idea behind creating such a platform is to increase the speed and accessibility of payments. Platform participants will be able to settle with each other almost instantly, while the costs of making payments will be minimal.

There's one hell of a lot happening out there as we witness a complete overhaul of the global financial architecture - sadly more than 90% of Kiwis are none the wiser.

Colin Maxwell

 

                             

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Second best piece of journalism I've ever read on this site.

:)

 

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"Instead of a piece of paper that relies on trust, with zero inherent value, the new system will be able to be accurately measured and counted on - a major win that should guarantee to create a more placid and productive world." so you're promoting crypto? I would suggest that crypto is the currency that has zero inherent value, while FIAT is backed by ALL the economic assets of its economy, including its governmental owner.

You mix facts with myth to produce a commentary that appears superficially correct but is incorrect. 

Where you are correct is that the financial systems are due for a collapse because of the way they've been manipulated by a number of players. But make no mistake - no matter the form of currency in play for trading, someone will try to manipulate it to their favour, and at everyone else's expense.

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Please read what I said again, Murray.

How on earth could you possibly construe my statement to be in any way an endorsement of cryptos?

Gold is money, everything else is CREDIT - including cryptos!!!

That is probably the one thing that I ever agreed on stated by the archetypical bankster, J P Morgan.

Which makes crypto one of the dodgiest forms of credit ever dreamed up. The scarcity tripe doesn't wash either because last time I checked there were ~2.5 million different cryptos in existence - any more and it will be every second man and his dog starting one up. 

In fact, crypto is credit on credit - TWO LAYERS - the tokens they are measured in, and then the crypto itself, which has zero inherent value and relies totally on your faith in yet another credit token.

Perhaps you are confusing the fact that some of the proposed instruments that BRICS are looking at incorporate blockchain technology because of the efficiencies and cost savings they deliver - however, this technology and cryptos are two entirely different animals.

So too with CBDCs - they can be many things - in fact,  central banks have been operating using digital currencies for goodness knows how long. The vast majority of the money supply is digitally debited and credited to commercial banks. Actual money creation takes place after the banks loan out those new balances into the broader economy.

What we need to avoid at all costs...

#1 Retail CBDCs where businesses and individuals have an account at the central bank.

#2 And the absolute pits - where you have that retail account at a central bank but the CB is 100% owned by a cartel of thieving private banks - like the Fed, and the central banks of Italy and South Africa.

... quoted from blogger N S Lyons... 

"... if not deliberately and carefully constrained in advance by law, CBDCs have the potential to become even more than a technocratic central planner's dream. They could represent the single greatest expansion of totalitarian power in history."

Regards 
Colin Maxwell 

    

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The best evidence I've seen is that the UK was behind the Nord Stream sabotage. The following evidence has been compiled by a Finnish data scientist (who likes to remain anonymous, for obvious reasons): https://nordstreambymortymer.blogspot.com/

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Gold Kiwi - I am not knocking your link that implicates the UK in the sabotage - on the contrary - of course they were involved - this type of action backing up Uncle $am is precisely their go-to modus operandi. Just as they sent the idiotic Bojo to Istanbul to scuttle the peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

In the weeks ahead of Johnson's April 9 visit, high-level diplomatic talks held in Belarus and Turkey had failed to yield a diplomatic breakthrough, though reports in mid-March indicated that Russian and Ukrainian delegations "made significant progress" toward a 15-point peace deal that would involve Ukraine renouncing its NATO ambitions in exchange for the withdrawal of Moscow's troops. BoJo scuttled the entire process and in doing so sent hundreds of thousands of people to their deaths. These warmongering lunatics literally foam at the mouth at the thought of bringing Russia to its knees.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d4BuMaGlKp0

BACK TO THE BALTIC 

By definition, given that the UK and the U$ work from the same playbook, with 90% of their foreign policy being one and the same, transcending their countries national interests and designed primarily to perpetuate a heightened state of Russia-phobia and to keep the same old group of global financial kleptocrats at the head of the human food chain.

Clearly, Finland (one of the signatures to the original Nato treaty) and Sweden provided support or gave the U$ clearance for these so-called maritime exercises because they share much of the same mind-set. Norway would have been ecstatic too - once the deed was done, they promptly got to increase their supply of liquid gas to Europe by something like 250% and of course at a huge premium as well. 

Sy Hersh is IMO without peer in terms of a lifetime of incredibly courageous and accurate international investigative journalism - I would hazard a guess that he is in total agreement that the UK was a partner in this outrageous international crime although clearly not the principal instigator - because it was huge fear for the U$ that Europe might walk away from their proxy war with Russia and that their attack dog (NATO) would be exposed for what they are - incompetent and completely irrelevant without cultivating contrived perpetual enemies.

Cheers
Colin Maxwell    

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https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/532290/nearly-100-000-spent-on-cat…

So up to 400 attendees for 2 days would be $118.75 per person per day.

Which would buy 39 of David Seymour's "so good" lunches.

 

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I don't get why anyone has a problem with this? Many companies do this stuff all the time. 

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I mostly get to choose which companies I spend money with though...

How tax dollars are being spent, not as much.

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Precisely, we have a supposedly cost cutting government (or the image they try to portray) getting riddled with scandals of overspending on frivolous things while restructuring goes on all round. Worsens the image of government and add to the them and us narrative the prevents many form being willing to engage in paying appropriate tax etc from said lack of faith in govt. Rules are only as good as the enforcement to keep them, as is govt only as useful as the faith people have in it. 

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It wasn't the 'Government' it was a ministry, and this is another example why the Government are trying sort them out.  

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