Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank and Heartland Bank cut fixed rates today. Details here. Heretaunga Building Society did too. All rates are here.
MORTGAGE TEST RATES FALLING
ASB and BNZ follow lead of New Zealand’s other major banks, cutting mortgage serviceability test rates.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Heretaunga Building Society trimmed rates today. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
STABLE JOBS MARKET, OR IS IT?
StatsNZ released its monthly employment indicators today. They are based in income tax data filed by employers, so a comprehensive record of the number of people in work. These figures show that there's been no monthly jobs growth in any of the past six months - while the construction sector in particular is contracting substantially. Westpac's Michel Gordon says: "The Monthly Employment Indicator showed that the number of filled jobs was about flat in September. While that was slightly better than our expectation of a -0.2% fall, we note that this measure tends to be revised down for a few months after its initial release."
STABLE BUT A RECORD HIGH
For those who follow this, the RBNZ's currency intervention capacity (F5) held at $22.6 bln at the end of September and has been at this general level for three months now. Having noted that, we should also note its at an all-time high, despite the only-minor change.
MANAGING DECLINE
As snail-mail volumes atrophy, MBIE is readying revisions to NZ Post's service obligations. Five changes are proposed: 1. Reducing minimum delivery frequency from minimum three days per week in urban areas, to two days per week and minimum five days per week in rural areas, to three days per week, 2. reducing the minimum number of postal outlets from 880 to 500. Considering a glide down to a minimum of 400 over time, 3. providing for NZ Post to meet its requirement to extend its network in the form of delivering to cluster and community boxes for new addresses, 4. allowing NZ Post to convert existing delivery points into communal points at a rate of up to five percent per year, and 5. instead of a five-year period before the next Deed Review, suggesting the next Review be in three years. Including the option for an earlier Review for example if annual mail volumes fall below 120 million.
NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. Serko traveling well, with Infratil & a2Milk. Tourism Holdings pulls back with Gentrack, Heartland drops further
FONTERRA LAUNCHES BIG BOND OFFER
Fonterra said it is offering up to $350,000,000 of unsubordinated, unsecured five year fixed rate bonds to institutional investors and to New Zealand retail investors. The offer opens today with an indicative margin range of 0.85 - 0.95% pa. The offer is expected to close on November 1, 2024. They will be listed and are expected to be assigned a long term credit rating of A- by S&P Global Ratings and A by Fitch Ratings.
LOWER FEES VIA A MAIN BANK
BNZ has launched Payap payments app with substantially lower merchant fees. Compatible with all major banks, and with low merchant fees, it promises a simpler, low-cost real time payments system linked to users' bank accounts.
22.2 MILLION COINS
The Reserve Bank has confirmed that the 10-cent coin will be the first circulating coin to feature the effigy of King Charles III in New Zealand, after announcing the effigy for NZ coins earlier this year. The central bank told interest.co.nz that a production order for 22.2 million coins had been placed for expected minting next year, although the RBNZ doesn’t know the exact minting date in 2025 yet. The first mintings of the other four NZ coin denominations with the new image are still likely to be in 2027, RBNZ Director of Money and Cash Ian Woolford said. Coins also don’t typically enter circulation until 2 years after production.
"SAME FISCAL DISCIPLINE"
Finance Minister Nicola Willis won’t say if the Reserve Bank’s high staff numbers will affect the central bank’s new five-year funding agreement with the Government next year. Interest.co.nz asked the Minister’s office last Thursday if Willis thought the 17.8% increase in staff numbers (+91 roles) at the Reserve Bank during the June-2024 year was justified and if it would impact the next five years of funding given the Government’s focus on slashing public expenditure. Willis said in a response on Friday that the RBNZ was “operationally independent” but would be subjected to the “same fiscal discipline as the rest of the public service” when she negotiated the bank’s new five-year funding agreement in the first half of next year.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -2 bps at 4.53%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 4.49%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 2.15%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp from Friday at 4.50% while the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.47% and unchanged from Friday. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.27% and down -2 bps from this morning. Their 2yr is up at 4.13%, so that curve is now positive by +14 bps.
EQUITIES MIXED & MINOR
The NZX50 is down -0.3% in late Tuesday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.4% in afternoon trade today. Tokyo has opened up +0.7%. Hong Kong is up +0.5% at its open. Shanghai is down -0.2%. Singapore is also down -0.2%. Wall Street closed its Monday trade with the S&P500 up +0.3%.
OIL STAYS DOWN
The oil price is little-changed from this morning at just on US$67.50/bbl in the US, and just on US$71.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
The carbon price marginally softer today at $62.50/NZU. There has been solid volumes traded. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMISH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$8 from this morning, now at US$2751/oz.
NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from this morning's open, still at 59.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.9 AUc. And against the euro we are little-changed at 55.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still at 68.8.
BITCOIN UP AGAIN
The bitcoin price is up +1.7% from this morning's open, now at US$69,995. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.0%.
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106 Comments
How the government is moving to streamline building consents
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/532218/watch-how-the-government-is…
Don’t know if you have come across it, and it may still be prevalent, but it was a stock smart arse answer of tradies of any type when asked for recompense for unsatisfactory work - “see you in court then.” Our extended family was faced with this over a EQ rebuild of a family home. The builder, right at the end, tabled around $30k additional costs for unspecified work and denied entry to the property until paid. Our family members had by then finalised their lease for their rental. Lawyers advice - by the time you unravel and argue out all the bits and pieces it will cost you more than $30k, you won’t get to court for a couple of years and the judge is likely to just say 50/50. It’s moments like those that you wish you were Bob Jones.
It is a crazy move from my experience to allow self certification. Councils pick up so many non complaint issues with builders work. Unless there is going to be a proper mandatory 10 year building guarantee scheme for consumers like their is in Australia, consumers could be far worse off. At least councils are currently there to take responsibility if they miss something in their inspections.
No. The staff would move from one employer to another. But overall cost would be basically the same, or higher. Ratepayers may think there is a saving, but Councils - as I understand it - still carry the longer term risks - and these risks need to be covered, typically by their balance sheets or by insurance.
You might find that the costs charged don't even cover operating cost of staff etc., let alone any corporate overheads, which arguably they should include. Many council charges are cross-subsidised from general rates because they worry about affordability and public perception (rightly or wrongly)
I believe so and councils will jump at increasing rates at a level above the drop off in the loss of BC fees. BC fees are a profitable stream for Councils as they have always been looking to increase charges outside of rates. As BC fees don't affect most ratepayers the ratepayers show little or no concern for the fees.
Don't council have insurance for this though?
That is why it needs a mandatory warranty scheme, which I understand Australia has. But IMO that is only going to add to the costs. If people think this is actually going to save money, they are dreaming.
Councils will also likely use this an opportunity to increase rates using the loss in revenue from consents as the reason.
The current system is not great, but at least it works ok for 90% of buildings.
plumbers and electricians have a MUCH higher standard of regulation, training and can be prosecuted and lose their license to trade if they fail to follow the law, builders are not regulated or trained to that standard and how many stories have you seen about some builder going bust or not finishing a project because of flaws liquidating and starting a new company and just carrying on
Nelson electrician on trial after death of tradesman while working on kitchen rangehood - NZ Herald
Auckland plumber fuming over investigation that led to fine - NZ Herald
“RBNZ...same fiscal discipline as the rest of the public service”
Well, that isn't reassuring.
https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/07/13/public-sector-bloat-reserve-ba…
Stable jobs over the last 6 months - while our working-age population (15-64) increased by an estimated 31,000 people. We lost 20,000 jobs over the last 12 months, while adding 62,000 to the working-age population. Indeed, the only thing holding jobs up is the non-market sector (health, education, public admin etc).
So BTC is now slightly higher than my selling price on 31 March (70k)
Do what you gotta do and stick to your own strategy and decisions. Of course owning BTC can be about regrets. Going all in under USD5K is but a distant dream (well not that distant really - March 2020 was a good time for those with resolve). Sell if you have to - new car, house, whatever. But history shows the diamond hands are recommended. I might be tempted to release some at USD500k+.
Huge move in Iris Energy last night - +17%. Almost like the market sensed something was up. Now the stock is up 180% since Feb and quite possibly these are early days.
They thing I am most scared of is getting rid of him once he is in. The Democrats should have got Obama to run for the sake of the country. She just has so much presence and comes across like a president should, and think she would have won, even at short notice. But it all seems to come down to money.
my prediction is that trump will negotiate with putin to stop the war in ukraine, he has a better relationship with putin than biden does.
I had this opinion since the tucker carlson interview with putin.
And then if he does stop the War, people who dislike him will have to like him for something, and it will expose a lot, showing that the democrats are keeping the war going.
Id love to see kamala go to russia and negotiate with one of the most stern men in the world to stop a war.
I imagine Trump would stop the war quite quickly, because he will crumble in negotiation with Putin and push for Ukraine to give away vast swathes of their country.
Then we can all enjoy peace, until Russia comes back to finish the job, or another country realises what a push over the West are and gobbles up their neighbour.
Yes, but without the support of their friends and allies they don't have much hope against a larger opponent.
Welcome to the new world where might is right and every country has to dramatically bump up defense spending to ensure their independence. Goodbye to the peace dividend that resulted from a world order where aggression against a neighbour was generally not tolerated.
Been watching documentaries again RI
https://www.google.com/search?gs_ssp=eJzj4tFP1zcsNM0yS0kpNzJg9JIvSU3MVU…
Trump would have to tell Ukraine no more aid, military or indirect from the US and Ukraine would likely be forced cede as a minimum Crimea and probably even the annexed territories. This "deal" would be arranged by Trump who has no compunction to save Ukraine. Remember Trump's statetment to the effect. Zelensky is the only salesman to come to America and walk away with $60bill.
Don’t know that the three Baltic States, Poland, Finland and likely Rumania will see any concession Ukranian territory offering a secure pact for the cessation of hostilities. What Russia might get would be viewed by them as just a temporary pause. Reset, regather and restart when /where optimal. After all there is now a precedent that territory will always be gained by said strategy. The European nations beyond Ukraine will have to think hard about the long term, rather than the short term and consider whether or not they are going to confront Putin’s warmongering themselves rather than dipping into the American armoury as a matter of right. Trump very likely is about to close that door.
Aye, Churchill and the crocodiles again. Wouldn’t take much forethought to understand that Russia intends to reclaim the once empire of Peter the Great. There has been no shyness by Putin and his hierarchy in broadcasting that ambition. And it wouldn’t take much forethought either, to work out that if you want to prevent that, then it would be far preferable to base the prevention in Ukraine rather than waiting for Russia to cross your own border. Forewarned, forearmed, forestalled. Nothing else will do.
Very true Russia has weakened itself drastically, economically, socially and militarily. And even before this outbreak the European NATO members between them had enough industrial and military power to outmuscle Russia. But the problem is not so much one of a case of face to face combat but more to what extremism the Russian leaders might resort if/when their whole damn shooting box begins to break apart Ceding Ukranian territory rather than actually confronting the beast would be nothing more than a fool’s errand, simply feeding fuel to the fire.
The biggest risk with not resisting Ukraine is not the direct threat to NATO states, it is further erosion of the international norms on sovereignty. They are not perfect, and yes I know there has been many, many, black arts international interference over the years by major states, but a general adherence to these norms has held a modicum of 'peace'.
What Israel is doing to Gaza would not have happened had Russia not invaded Ukraine. The invasion has eroded international norms on what is acceptable state-led violence outside international boundaries. The US/UK eroded those norms when they invaded Iraq. The more they get eroded the more state on state open warfare risks escalating globally.
I recently read that the Anarcho-hippie commune of Christiania in Denmark has resorted to asking the police for help in dealing with criminal gangs abusing their permissive approach to drugs.
People constantly complain about the US being the international police force and abusing their power, it's a legitimate complaint. But there are three main benefits to us of the US performing that role:
US institutions and norms are more aligned with our institutional norms than any other potential police power
The US political structure is at least predicated on elections and offers the hope that those in power can be held to account. We may end up with a dictator like Trump but it would be an aberration and if this were Russia or China there would not even be the semblance of choice
Having the US as an agreed de facto policeman means everyone else doesn't need to impoverish themselves even further by tooling up to protect themselves from the international thugs
Well said. The tentacles of aggression intertwine right across, and from continent to continent. For instance Putin’s bellicosity, justifying use of nuclear weaponry, in the case of a perceived existential threat, simply provides a precedent for Israel, in their conflict. The USA has in its history, ever since declaring war on Spain in the early 20th century with neither provocation nor justification, has unnecessarily made many rotten blunders and adventurism little more than ham fisted imperialism. But at the end of the day it’s something of a realistic question to ask yourself, would you prefer to live under the regimes respectively of say Washington DC/London or those of Moscow/Beijing.
"my prediction is that trump will negotiate with putin to stop the war in ukraine, he has a better relationship with putin than biden does"
Just like he stopped Kim Jong-Il to stop producing nuclear weapons, when he met with him? LOL. Trump is a joke. He's a selfish, petulant, ignorant, narcissistic little boy.
Don't be fooled by the US dominated analysis with regards Ukraine.
The Europeans have a huge say - bigger than the US - in what happens to Ukraine. Trump may have fooled many 'mericans about what he claims he can achieve - but like always - it's b.s. Only his cult is foolish enough to believe he can solve anything in Ukraine.
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$8 from this morning, now at US$2751/oz.
On the surface seems insignificant and doesn't do it justice. PMGOLD up 1.14% today and silver proxy EPTMAG on the ASX up 2.14%. Both quite solid moves.
Evolution Mining matching gold step for step and up a solid 42% in 2024. Larvotto Resources up a whopping 428.57%.
Not what wanna be property 'investors' want to hear.
Rents fall to eight-month low, but still higher than last year ... (btw, just 1.6% higher than this time last year)
Take care.
It's going to be slow grind back.
Spot on. That's why it's hard to build an earth based case that house prices are about to imminently rise faster than ones ability to save the required deposit and therefore FHB's should hurry. Aside from OO's, those with existing portfolios have had their losses amplified.
Depends where your property is situated, Poppy.
I can confirm that ChCh prices havent dropped at all.
The oodles of townhouses that have been built, being 2 bedroom and very small has distorted things hugely.
There have been plenty of opportunities to buy and sell for many people!
Priceless third world reality, f en funny
Echeverry said there were 40 rooms spread over two floors, but she has put Cop16 delegates on one corridor because noise comes from rooms “all the time” when they are in use.
“We guarantee good rest for our delegates,” she said.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/29/some-unique-feature…
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