Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
None to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Heartland Bank trimmed all its term deposit rates for terms of 90 days and longer. AMP followed suit. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
DRYING UP
Fewer new homes are being built in Auckland as building work dries up. Residential construction in Auckland could be on the verge of a significant slump.
SLOWING DOWN
Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr says they will be more 'circumspect' with reducing interest rates relative to the speed at which they went up, which 'is the general idea'.
CHANGES AHEAD
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NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. Tourism Holdings (again) and Infratil lead today; Vista, Mercury and Spark are the laggards.
NEW HOME LOANS RISE STRONGLY
The latest mortgage figures from the Reserve Bank show that on a seasonally adjusted basis mortgage commitments by value rose +6.9% in September.
RECORD HOME LOAN INTEREST BURDEN
In the 90 days to September, mortgage borrowers paid $5.7 bln in interest on their loans which was +24% more than they paid in the September 2023 quarter. In the year to September, they paid $21.5 bln in interest, a third more than the prior year. But the extra didn't all accrue to banks. Most of it was recycled to savers especially in their term deposit accounts (55%). Some went to business depositors (22%), wholesale investors (10%), others (8%), and the smallest portion was retained by banks. So 85%+ of this was likely recycled through the economy. Still, some of the balance would have leaked offshore, and our economy will have noticed that. But we need those overseas investors. If they don't earn an acceptable return here they won't invest, and we won't be able to fund our current account deficit. Then things would be much worse.
VERY FEW ARE DOING IT REALLY TOUGH
Things are probably not too tough for mortgage payers. They still paid $4.2 bln in 'excess repayments' on their loans, over and above the $7.6 bln in scheduled repayments. $4.2 bln is near the top of the range over the past decade. These are quarterly numbers. The annual totals to September are $29.0 bln in scheduled payments, plus another $15.8 bln in 'excess repayments'. At the other end of the scale, 'payment deficiencies' were $815 mln for the year, write-offs just $15 mln. Neither were rising in September. In fact September was the lowest in two and a half years.
GROWTH HARD TO FIND
In Australia, their October PMI survey reveals that their factory sector is at a 53 month low with a moderate contraction. Their services sector however is holding its own - just.
ADAPTION TO INFLATION STILL A STRUGGLE
In Japan the same flash October PMI report shows a contract too in their factory sector, but only a minor one. But output and new order levels slipped at a slightly faster rate. Their services sector isn't expanding either according to this same report, a slip from the prior month. Apparently Japanese businesses are struggling to adapt to their modest inflation pressures.
SWAP RATES SOFTISH
Wholesale swap rates are probably probably not much-changed at the shorter end. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 4.56%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +9 bps at 4.51% in more bond hurt there. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.15%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is also unchanged from yesterday at 4.57% while the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.51% and up +2 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.23% and up +3 bps from yesterday. Their 2yr is up at 4.05%, so that curve is now positive by +18 bps.
EQUITIES FIRMER, EXCEPT CHINA & WALL STREET
The NZX50 is now up +0.4% in late Thursday trade in building gains. The ASX200 is up +0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.3% at its Thursday open. Hong Kong is down -1.3% at its open. Shanghai started down -0.7% at its open. Singapore is trading up +0.2%. Wall Street was weaker by -0.9% on the S&P500 in their Wednesday trade.
OIL STABLE
The oil price is unchanged from this time yesterday at just on US$71.50/bbl in the US, and just over US$75.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE SOFTISH
The carbon price softish today at $62/NZU. There bas been normal to low volumes traded. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD LOWER
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$16 from this time yesterday, now at US$2722/oz.
NZD DIPS
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from this time yesterday, now at 60.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.5 AUc. And against the euro we are down -20 bps at 55.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down to 68.8.
BITCOIN LITTLE-CHANGED
The bitcoin price is down a minor -0.2% from this time yesterday, now at US$67,168. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.8%.
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57 Comments
Would like to see the split on that between owner occupied and the rest. Venture to suggest that with regard to the former it is an almost poignant illustration of just how important it is for a household to own a roof over its head. Governments in the past respected the need for families to achieve home ownership via initiatives such as State Advances, capitalisation of the family benefit, the good number of building societies and the designated savings banks and as well solicitors’ mortgage lending was not uncommon. It didn’t change for the better and government meddling in the housing stock, for example LAQCs, made things harder, not easier. There should have been a continuation of acknowledgment and respect for this basic difference, but there wasn’t.
The global data is doing a lot of masking here.
Firstly, banks have been shovelling mortgages onto longer-terms - I know several people who have gone from 10 year to 25 year terms (despite being in their 40s and 50s!)
Secondly, people can afford mortgage payments but next to nothing else. Hence demand cratering. Still plenty of downhill left in this cycle.
The question is who are the 'they' and how many of them are there?....the lie of averages (and aggregates) trips up many.
If there is so much capacity within the mortgage market why have sales and prices declined and why has discretionary spending fallen?
Lies, damned lies and .....statistics.
However if you see it differently and are so inclined then buy that 'investment' property....if there are sufficient of that inclination the can may be kicked a little further.
There is one overriding reason central banks have about faced and started dropping rates at an accelerated pace....fear of default.
Insane stats from WSJ. There are 12 million "full-time" influencers in the US - approx 7% of the American workforce. This bubble is unsustainable.
Those at the top of the pile are making out like bandits, but other data I'm privy to suggests approx 50%+ make less than USD10K a year. 33% make $1-2K a year.
Social media pays the bills for millions of Americans. But making a living online is more financially complicated than working a 9-to-5. Influencers need an audience to win advertising deals, and changing what they post risks turning followers away. Couples who showcase their love life online face an existential threat to the family business when they split.
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/relationships/tiktok-influencers-marriage…
No more than advertising agencies or or companies. The influencer cuts out the middle men and the exploitation that occurs, particularly with young girls. They control their own career and the top earners make staggering amounts.
They are making a mockery of big spending advertising campaigns and agencies. Mock them if you will, but some very smart kids doing this stuff.
Couple of random thoughts (from somebody who has spent a decent amount of time in his career hiring influencers for various promotions and campaigns)
- As JC alludes to, what is the actual distribution of influencer incomes? I'd love to know how it varies by platform and content niche as well. I would imagine the vast majority of influencers earn very little.
- I recall some time ago the IRD making noise about taxing free gifts provided to influencers as income (I personally know some influencers - mainly 'mommy vlogger' types - who make next to nothing in terms of cash but are gifted everything from free car leases, to free travel, to free clothes, to free meals and drinks) That would put the kibosh on a lot of influencer activity.
- Not enough noise is made about the extent to which viewership, engagement etc is faked by many social platforms and influencers.
Lord Orr on CNBC. His time in the sun. So he reckons 'inflation has been beaten' and things are looking rosy in Aotearoa.
His views on inflation are in stark contrast to Tudor Jones and Druckenmiller. Perhaps we're different.
Place your bets.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/10/23/rbnz-governor-strongly-believe-ou…
No, JJ, we are not 'in the cycle'.
This is a one-off event. It can never happen again.
Overshooting Earth's Boundaries | Bill Rees - YouTube
Make the time to bother to watch. And learn.
We are in the cycle. There are plenty of tradies free right now to build some houses, they just need someone (e.g. the government) to want houses to be built. The next part of the cycle is that they all bugger off to Aus, and the final part is that Labour get elected and try and build houses but there are no tradies anywhere.
We are in the cycle. There are plenty of tradies free right now to build some houses, they just need someone (e.g. the government) to want houses to be built. The next part of the cycle is that they all bugger off to Aus, and the final part is that Labour get elected and try and build houses but there are no tradies anywhere.
Perhaps Japan could take them in. They currently facing a significant shortage of workers, particularly in skilled trades. This labor shortage is projected to worsen, with estimates suggesting that by 2035, Japan will experience a deficit of approximately 3.84 million workers—equivalent to 17.75 million hours of work per day.
https://www.nippon.com/en/news/yjj2024101700906/
All cycles are different, some long some short. I do not think its clear how this cycle will fan out, but debt is blowing out everywhere, normally implies people want a return on there money as more debt consumers then issuers... ie higher rates demanded by those who have cash. So even though countries have OCRs and govies, others have to borrow above that in general.
The NZ housing cycle is a diversion from the commodities and debt super cycle. Though higher neutral rates will dampen capital gain expectations.
I never mocked it at all, it was obviously going to happen. I simply pointed out that it was taking much longer than you or I predicted. I often said I was surprised that anyone was starting new building projects.
But what has Bishop done to prevent it? Where is the big state housing build to take up the slack?
Big state house building? That’s what I was saying to government officials was needed in early 2023 (I was talking more about planning a massive housing programme for FHBs, rather than social housing). The Labour government were still in power. They were already pulling back on state house building plans. Their officials told me with a straight face consents would drop back 10-15%. Not 40%, which is what I told them. So they obviously didn’t think it woukd happen. Or were just full of spin.
And perhaps not quite on song, but speaking of culture, love (or lack thereof), housing and perhaps also Kiwis (?), we are reminded today of another impact of generational ageing.
"Every year, thousands of mostly middle-aged men die quietly and alone. It sometimes takes days or even weeks before their bodies are found. South Korea isn’t alone in fighting this battle, an issue so pressing the government is pulling out all the stops to fight it. Japan, where the trend was first recognized, appointed a Minister of Loneliness and Isolation in 2021. Other countries, including the United Kingdom, have similarly appointed Ministers of Loneliness. The United States Surgeon General warned of an “epidemic of loneliness and isolation” in a 2023”
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/24/asia/south-korea-loneliness-deaths-i…
On top of ratty and gold ETFs, Smartshares have just announced two more offerings:
Smart S&P/NZX 20 ETF (NZT): Invests in New Zealand shares and is designed to track the return of the S&P/NZX 20 Gross with Imputation Index.
Smart US Technology (NZD Hedged) ETF (UST): Invests in US shares and is designed to track the return of the S&P 500 Capped 35/20 Information Technology Index (100% NZD Hedged).
The 5 and 10 year bond rates are really interesting at the moment, and what is occurring in the US bond market right now. On top of that Orrs comments last night which basically said 0.75 is not going to happen at the next meeting. We are going to get the pullback in rates next year but 2027 onwards looks interesting. A lot of demand could appear from other parts of the world as their populations grow, and our economy could rebound quite quickly when the OCR gets back to 3.5% and less.
Surplus Energy Economics | The home of the SEEDS economic model – Tim Morgan
Your evening's homework.
I can help with the next class...
Overshooting Earth's Boundaries | Bill Rees
Sheesh, to hear endless growth being spouted at this late stage in the human irruption...
This, from Maccy B, is the sort of thing you will never find in this country - insightful analysis on the construction sector and development economics. Apartment prices need to rise 15% to make constructing them viable, given soaring construction costs. So wave good bye to much in the way of apartment construction over the next few years.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2024/10/australians-cannot-afford-to-l…
US Election gets dirty
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/23/donald-trump-accuser-st…
plagiarism vs sexism and misogyny
getting popcorn and looking at betting odds.
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