Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank cut their floating rates today by -50 bps. More here. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
COPING WELL
Nearly 40% of the country's mortgage holders are still ahead with their repayments. The NZ Banking Association says despite tough economic conditions, 'the vast majority of New Zealanders' are managing their financial situation well.
GREEN SHOOTS HARD TO FIND
QV says average housing values kept declining in September. 'Green shoots of growth remain scarce' in housing market, they say.
FMA PERP-WALKS ASB FOR BREACHES
In another civil court prosecution resulting from self-reporting by a financial institution, the FMA has filed proceedings against ASB. The FMA’s proceedings have two causes of action. The first relates to the failure to apply multi policy discounts on ASB-branded insurance products. The second is in respect of ASB’s failure to consistently apply fee exemptions to certain customer accounts with access to ASB’s Fastnet Banking service. As with the multi policy discount issue, the FMA alleges the failures arose through errors in the manual process undertaken by ASB staff. ASB did not have adequate systems in place to check that the fee exemptions were being applied correctly. 25,000 customers were involved. ASB has completed remediation work on both causes of action and has repaid affected customers, including use of money interest.
NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. Contact & Oceania make gains, FBU recovers some, Kathmandu keeps falling.
SIGNALS FOR LAMB DEMAND IMPROVE
Finally there is some lift in demand for lamb even as global markets remain challenging. Chinese demand is gradually recovering, though prices lag behind historic levels as resistance to higher pricing persists. In the EU and UK, retailers are showing strong interest in lamb for the upcoming Christmas season, while US demand for lamb racks remains firm. On the beef front, US demand is robust, but rising Brazilian imports ahead of the 2025 quota may pressure prices
in early next year. This update is from Prime Range Meats. The tables in our Rural section disclose current processor schedules.
POWDER PRICES TO HOLD?
There is another GDT Pulse auction tonight for WMP and SMP. Derivates market pricing today suggests there will be little change in prices from last week's full GDT auction event.
FORCED APPROVAL?
The Commerce Commission has granted clearance for Evergreen NZ Holdings to acquire 100% of the shares in ACM New Zealand. Both supply cash-in-transit services and both lose money as that market atrophies. The Commerce Commission judged that "Without the proposed acquisition, we consider that it is unlikely that both Evergreen and ACM would continue to provide cash-in-transit services in New Zealand.” So on the basis that some service is better than none, a monopoly was approved.
LESS NEGATIVE
In Australia, business sentiment became less negative in September. The NAB business confidence index 'rose' to -2 from August’s revised -5, amid notable improvements in retail and recreation & personal services.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today ahead of tomorrows MPR. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down another -1 bp to 4.77%. That is -48 bps below the OCR and its lowest level in ten months. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 4.23%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.16%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp bps from this time yesterday at 4.36%. And the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.32% and down -1 bp from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.02% and up +18 bps from yesterday. Their 2yr is now at 3.96%, so that curve is now only positive by +6 bps.
EQUITIES DOWN EVERYWHERE, EXCEPT SHANGHAI
The NZX50 is down -0.1% in its late Tuesday trade. The ASX200 is also down -0.1 in resumed trade. But Tokyo is down -0.9% at its open. And Hong Kong has dropped -4.1% at its open. Shanghai has started with a +6.6% catchup in return from holiday. Singapore is trading down -0.5% at its open. Wall Street ended its Monday trade with the S&P500 down almost -1.0%.
OIL RISES
The oil price is up +US$2.50 from this time yesterday at just on US$76.50/bbl in the US, and now just under US$80.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE FALLS
The carbon price fell -$1.25 to $61.75/NZU. Volumes traded are still light and bidding is soft. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD ON HOLD
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$1 from this time yesterday, now at US$2647/oz.
NZD SLIPS
The Kiwi dollar has fallen -20 bps from yesterday, now at 61.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 90.8 AUc. And against the euro we are down -30 bps at 55.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down to 69.4 from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN DOWN
The bitcoin price is down -1.8% from this time yesterday, now at US$62,664. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.8%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
Daily swap rates
Select chart tabs
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
92 Comments
‘In just 40 years, US debt rose from $1 trillion to $35 trillion
With a shocking $3 trillion increase just last year alone’
https://x.com/bravosresearch/status/1843353805309837507?s=46&t=MUwQeKa7…
That's a spectacular leap you made there.
I was making the point that the days of the perilous Govt deficit - debt clock on the news etc - is basically over. It's just a number that tells you how much the Govt has spent but not taxed back yet. Lots of major economies have not reduced their debt for 25 years. So what?
Jfoe seems to think that the USD can never fail regardless of how much of it is issued - even though every reserve currency before it has - and all by more or less doing exactly what the US is currently doing. Creating too many bonds so that it can live beyond its means/domestic production capacity (and its ability to generate taxable income from that production to service the interest payments on the huge quantity of bonds being issued).
Thats a 'misquote'....JFoe stated a few days ago that he thought the USD wouldnt fail in the next couple of decades.
Your point about all (reserve) currencies failing at some point is valid but as with most things timing is crucial...and none of us has a (working) crystal ball.
Who knows what will become a widely accepted medium of exchange in the future....quite possibly something that currently dosnt exist.
"It's just a number that tells you how much the Govt has spent but not taxed back yet."
All those wealth claims sloshing round out there , Govt consumption been and gone, and someones got it sitting on the desk under the to do list?
Wow.
Then Id suggest the wealth will prove to be a mirage.
In just 40 years, the US Govt took $35 trillion from private sector capital owners (in exchange for fixed income notes) and used the money for government programmes and so during that time it was lost to productive private sector investments, with an impressive $3 trillion acceleration this last year alone.
Do you really believe it works that way? Imagine the NZ government borrowed 100% of their costs and set a 0% tax rate, would NZ taxpayers save all their tax money? I’m guessing 50% would end up still owning nothing, and another 30% would still own the same houses except they would be “worth” a lot more.
To think US federal debt was $5.3 trillion (35% of GDP) in Q2-2008 and now sits at over $35 trillion (123% of GDP) is mindboggling.
Average household income over grew 51% over this period while federal debt shot up 7x - the worst kind of diminishing returns money can buy!
Pssst, that household wealth is debt - a combination of net bank lending, which created bank deposits, and Govt deficit spendin, which added money and US treasuries into the financial system (and pension schemes etc). You can see the increased bank loans to bank deposits match very clearly in the NZ data.
Open borders, spending domestic emergency funds on illegal migrants, generally treating illegal migrants better than citizens, increasing aid to Ukraine and climate emergency yet cutting domestic services, running expansionary budgets at suicidal levels.
Welcome to politics in 2024. Useless? No problem, we got your back.
From a person whose stock in trade is folksie wisdom and frequent nonsensical contradictory drivel - even when people who clearly know far more about a subject than you do try to point out how wrong you are - while you try to squirm your way out of it with yet more of the same, I'll take that as a complement.
He didn't create the money. Money got created at some point, and someone paid him with it for services rendered.
You don't automatically manifest money by exerting labour or entrepreneurship. It's the other way around, if money is created, that may pay for things to be created.
It also usually needs to be paid back.
A bank.
Not labourers and entrepreneurs.
How does your money system work when money is created, and less of value is generated from spending the money, than the value of the money?
Do we then create some more money and hope that gets spent on something that generates something if value instead?
Where does that end?
Take a step back. The new owner pays for the house, from which the builder gets paid for his labor. Most houses are bought with mortgages. The bank provides the money, in the form of a mortgage to the new owner. Now we can move on ...
Where does the bank get the money?
There's a really good summary here:
https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/119527/reserve-bank-explains-how-bro….
Maybe your phrasing is wrong. You said money is created especially when new stuff is created. I'd tend to think the money needs to get created first, and then you might get new stuff created.
We're not guaranteed more new stuff when money is created. It can just as easily be spent on things that already exist. Like how the States has to borrow to pay the interest on things it already borrowed to create (or in some cases, blow up).
Eventually, if you do this too much, you will create less and less new things.
Good. Did you read it thoroughly? Did you understand it? (In a nutshell: through the process of securitization, commercial banks are creating new money all the time.)
Now consider all those people using their labor (skills and time) to do stuff for which they get paid. That's a lot of money, ay?
Now do you understand why I said: "Money is created all the time ... especially when new stuff is created, via Labor and Entrepreneurship."?
(It also gets destroyed too, but not at the rate it gets created.)
Can you see that if new money wasn't created all the time - i.e. if the money supply was fixed - then it would become like gold, crypto, land, etc. which are in fixed, or near fixed, supply - and its value would constantly increase?
Imagine every year if your salary went down every year because money was now worth more?
See. No need to get all facty. It is a process after all.
I think you missed the matter of contention.
You're advocating infinite credit generation on the assumption it'll be used for making new stuff.
It'll make some new stuff, but also be spent on a whole lot of stuff that already exists - gold, crypto, land, etc. Less and less of it's going to people to make new stuff.
And what's actually happening, is this is making the value of salaries less, because it now costs more money to buy less stuff.
OMG. You've edited it again. Okay. Let's respond to your edit ...
"Maybe your [sic] phrasing is wrong."
No. My phasing is vastly simplified. But it is not wrong.
"You said money is created especially when new stuff is created. I'd tend to think the money needs to get created first, and then you might get new stuff created."
You're tending to think that way isn't unusual. But it is mostly wrong too.
Consider the building of a new house. The builder submits progress payments. The new owner goes to the bank and 'draws down' a portion of the total mortgage to satisfy the progress payment. The new 'money' is enters the economy at that time.
Now I said, mostly wrong. The builder would have used some of his "working capital", i.e. existing money, while he was building each stage for which he he would submit a progress payment. But he also would have used credit, e.g. an overdraft (new money entering the economy) and supplier credit arrangements (which can likewise be funded in numerous ways).
Sorry. It's past my bedtime and the rest of your post moving into a different subject entirely which is unrelated to the point you wanted me to explain. My apologies if it isn't 'facty' enough for you.
It's a very complex game.
We now have an economy that is 60% consumption based. To keep that going, you need to keep inserting more credit. And the credit needs to be cheap, because you're not making enough of a surplus (and if you were making a surplus, you possibly wouldn't need the debt in the first place)
What we are most likely facing, is continual money printing with diminishing returns. Less "new stuff", and ever bigger bills.
If credit was more expensive, perhaps it wouldn't be squandered so hap-hazardly, and be spent on things that provide a decent return. Trouble is, there would be a lot of destruction in the interim.
Okay, I_O and Pa1nter .... I'll try another track.
Let's pretend the US completely ceases adding new money into the pool. Or as the great and all-knowing Pa1nter says, the "debasement" stops dead.
What would immediately happen?
Where would USD FX rates go? In the immediate term? And in the longer term?
How would other countries respond?
And what would happen to the NZD? And the global economy?
Look away wingman - this post mentions gold.
‘Over the last decade, gold prices have more than DOUBLED, marking one of the best rallies in modern history.
Over the last 5 years alone, gold is up 76% and on track to be the best-performing asset class of the year, excluding cryptocurrencies.
It continues to feel like gold is rising due to longer-term macroeconomic concerns.
Particularly, the US debt crisis and inflation are in focus.
Since the pandemic, US national debt has soared by $12 trillion while the US dollar lost ~25% of its value.
Gold knows there's a long-term crisis brewing here.’
https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1843273957388042595?s=46&t=MUwQeKa7…
Everyone jumping on the gold bandwagon at the moment. But just a few things:
- The finance industry is not going to recommend gold to the hoi polloi in any portfolio. They don't really get a cut (commission) from exposure to Gold ETFs.
- Gold producers have still wildly underperformed. For ex, the gold miner ETF GDX is still 40% lower than it was in 2011.
The Wilshire 5000 to GDP ratio--aka the Buffett Indicator--provides a measure of the total market capitalization of all publicly traded stocks in the Wilshire 5000 index relative to the GDP of the US. This ratio is used as a valuation metric to assess whether the stock market is overvalued or undervalued compared to the economy.
As of today, the Buffett Indicator stands at 197.9%. of GDP, indicating that the total market value of the Wilshire 5000 is nearly twice the annual economic output of the U.S. The Buffet indicator reached over 200% during the "everything bubble" in February 2021.
The ratio dropped to lows around 32% in 2009.
https://www.gurufocus.com/economic_indicators/60/buffett-indicator
That ratio ignores the change in profitability of the component companies. US Corporate profit growth has vastly outpaced US GDP growth over the last two decades. Corporations are valued on their earnings power (from their global profits, not just the US), not on one country’s GDP. As much as I admire Buffett, that particular ratio is meaningless.
US Corporate profit growth has vastly outpaced US GDP growth over the last two decades
OK, Are you suggesting that PE ratios are not much higher than in the past? As of August 2024, the S&P 500's P/E ratio is reported at 35.9, which is approximately 76.4% above the modern-era average of 20.3. This positions the current ratio at 1.9 standard deviations above the average.
This would suggest that the market is overvalued.
https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/price-earnings.php
And to think that not long ago we were being told a tale of 10% rates by Christmas...
ANZ slashes its one-year mortgage rate to 5.59% - but keeps it quiet
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/anz-slashes-its-one-year-mortgage-rate-t…
"ASB has completed remediation work on both causes of action and has repaid affected customers, including use of money interest."
Um, No. Compared to what they charge for overdrawn bank balances, it was never even remotely close to "use of money interest".
Sorry, I call banking b.s. and weak watchdogs on that one.
Is there a reason why interest.co.nz can't report on the "online rate" offered by ANZ and other banks? Most of us that have the mobile app see these rates, as well as most people asking for a home loan. I realise there can be some variation in offers, but it looks like almost everyone is getting 5.59% today for 1y in the app...
If the banks are forcing your hand David, blink twice, your supporters (and free-loaders like myself) will send a rescue mission.
Smart move by the UAE.
The United Arab Emirates has exempted crypto transactions from paying value-added tax (VAT), bringing the industry into line with several traditional financial services.
"The UAE has essentially classified virtual assets in the same bucket as traditional financial services – several of which are already exempt from VAT. This legitimizes VAs," said Ankita Dhawan, a senior associate at Métis Institute, a dispute resolution think tank.
https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/10/07/uae-exempts-crypto-transacti…
What will it take for the Govt to appoint Commissioners to take over Wellington Council?
A huge conflict of interest
https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2024/10/a_huge_conflict_of_interest.html
The Wellington Airport sale
https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2024/10/the_wellington_airport_sale.html
https://wellington.scoop.co.nz/?p=164381
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for September 2024 shows support for the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) has increased again, up 2% points to 55%, increasing its lead over the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 41% (down 2% points).
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9693-nz-national-voting-intention-se…
Nothing to be happy about. Labour under Cindy turned into the NZ bureaucrats and welfare party in 2018 and doubled down on that from 2020 to 2023. Chippie is as spineless as they come and has no chance of bringing the party back to life.
I am a generally a centre-right voter but do believe a strong opposition in NZ is necessary for good democracy considering our unicameral system and rather weak political media.
It's also were the bad news is because one look at what the local Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is doing, and HK longs will want to throw up: as shown below, not only are HK stocks down as much as 11% after the open, but they have somehow managed to wipe out almost half the gains since the bazooka was launched in less than two hours!
CCP has small bazooka.....
‘As I forecast, the yield on the 10-year Treasury is now over 4%. It will keep rising until the Fed returns to QE, likely by Q1 2025. Without QE, yields will rise above 5%, then 6%. Oil prices are also rising, above $76, up 17% since last month's low. QE will send oil much higher.’
Peter Schiff’s thoughts on X today (people seem to love him or more often hate him).
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.