New Zealand’s recession deepened in the June quarter as economy activity fell 0.2% and dragged the year-on-year decline to 0.5%, according to data released by Statistics NZ.
While weak, this result was better than both the market consensus, which was for a 0.4% fall, and the Reserve Bank’s estimate of a 0.5% decline.
ANZ economists had predicted a smaller 0.1% fall. However, they warned that could not be considered a “strong” result as the economy had capacity to grow 0.6% each quarter.
“Even in the case of an upward surprise, economic momentum is likely to still be soft enough to be consistent with rising spare capacity and falling inflation,” they wrote in a preview note.
This GDP data, while slightly stronger than expected, still confirmed the RBNZ had underestimated the depth of the recession when it considering hiking interest rates in May.
Instead, the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Committee abruptly cut the Official Cash Rate to 5.25% at its August meeting after receiving updated GDP forecasts which downgraded growth outlook.
Stats NZ data showed gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation and population growth, has been flat or in decline for seven consecutive quarters -- a record last seen during the Global Financial Crisis.
However, the current recession has already outstripped the overall decline of that previous period with a 4.6% fall, compared to 4.2%.
GDP per capita fell 0.5% during the June quarter alone and was down 2.7% year-on-year, even though the headline figures were stronger with 0.2% and 0.5% declines, respectively.
Primary industries had the biggest fall during the quarter with a 1.6% drop, while manufacturing grew 1.9%.
Service industries were flat overall but with wide divergence between categories. Wholesale trade and retail were weaker, while healthcare and telecommunications were stronger.
199 Comments
Are you not entertained yet....?
Qualified youth (nurses, doctors, IT, tradie's) exiting west in droves.
Recent immigrants now with NZ Citizen tag exiting west as well.
Govt funded stupidity coming back to reality
Debt back to normal levels but spec town all crying "the world has ended".
All to protect asset speculation driven bank profit as if it was the only game in town.
My gut feel says you may be right. But my numbers say otherwise. There's quite a bit of money in TDs. Some will pulled and spent. If the RBNZ cuts faster and harder than markets are expecting - which is my pick - then the money that would have been shoveled offshore as interest on loans will stay in NZ and a bit of it will be spent while much will be used to repair household balance sheet. I can't see anything happening offshore to change this (baring another GFC).
So all up - after 7 quarters of going nowhere - there's nowhere to go - so I expect we'll bounce along, going nowhere, for the next 12 months.
I’ve mentioned this previously but those I know holding large amounts of TDs increased their discretional spending as interest rates were rising over the last few years as their income was increasing from these investments (mostly retirees). Talking to them now, they feel that as interest rates drop and their income from these investments drop, they are likely to tighten up their spending again (increasing the down cycle of this recent recession). They have no interest in buying more housing or investing in the sharemarket . Increasing rates actually stimulated parts of the economy but obviously not the entire economy (ie those holding debt couldn’t increase discretionary spending).
While you could be right, it is common in a recession to assume the bottom is further away than it really is, not many pick the bottom correctly. In this case the recession was almost completely the result of RBNZ tightening, and they are now doing the opposite, so I think we are close to the bottom.
They will keep cresting more debt - they have no option. But the debt is growing faster than their ability to service it and the effect of the stimulus reduces each time. Eventually the world will avoid buying US treasuries as they now they cannot service the interest expense and when that happens the collapse could come quite quickly (more I don’t predict this is going to happen now or next year - but it’s certainly a possibility over the next 50 years or so).
US debt is growing at about $1 trillion every 100 days right now - it’s a train wreck but people don’t want to see it as it hasn’t derailed just yet. But that rate of growth is completely unsustainable - as I say if they keep it going the USD will become worthless (people won’t want to hold US debt) but if they cut the stimulus the economy will tank.
The US could enter into a destructive loop that occurs to end of empire economies - print more to stimulate, but simultaneously destroy the one thing that made them powerful (their reserve currency status). The only way for the US to avoid this destruction is to massively pull back its external commitments and government spending otherwise the deficits will cripple them - ie the tax and interest expense burden becomes too great relative to the productivity of th economy. But simultaneously if they cut government spending significant they will fall into a very deep recession - so they’ve essentially cornered themselves into a no win situation by living too far beyond their means for the past 30 years or so - see the graph I shared earlier with the exponential growth of US debt from 1990 onwards - it isn’t good. It has created the illusion of wealth in asset bubbles but simultaneously high debt and weak productivity.
The stupid thing is that we all knew we had a demographic issue with the boomers retiring, the sensible thing would be for governments to have paid off all debt about now in preparation. Its a bit like a person going into retirement with a huge amount of debt - quite a bad idea.
If they paid down the debt before the retirement, that would not have benefitted the boomers at the time and hence they voted accordingly to their interest. Now change is an inevitability and will come at a time that is less than convenient for them: when they come to rely more on others.
Although I am not a boomer, I am old enough to have observed and voted the last 30 years, I don't remember one opportunity to vote for paying off the debt and living within our means. All I remember was the only a choice was between Labor and National the stated choice was a choice between more social services or less taxes. But in my opinion they where pretty much the same.
Hi John, good for you for disliking my views. I’m not going to attack your views and say they are insufferable because we are each entitled to a view based upon our knowledge , understanding and experience. Yours is obviously different to mine and that is what makes the world interesting. If you don’t like my views feel free to ignore them.
All the best.
IO
IO ....I would put John from Placemakers (why not give all 3 a plug !) in the same boat as Wingman - totally oblivious to anything that is happening outside NZ.
This level of "thinking" got NZ into the crap in the first place - people just spending way beyond their means, with the promise of "never" ending house price growth.
I just hope now, once we get through this cycle, that these people (including local and national Government) will finally realise that for every "boom" (even artificial with covid spending) there always follows a downturn (while what magnitude is anyone's guess)
Sometimes I wish I didn't think things through to much - but at least I can see the forest for the trees !
Unless you are aware of your own recency and confirmation basis (as a result of your lived experience) it can then be very difficult to see a different point of view. I can see where John is coming from though, he has probably become very wealthy from buying houses and using debt to his advantage - good for him and well done.
But John is misrepresenting me though saying I’m predicting another Great Depression - I am not, I am just saying some conditions we see are similar to the late 1920’s and central banks learned their lesson from the 1930’s that restrictive monetary policy caused the depression to be deeper than it needed to be - but it is possible they have learned their lesson now too far in the opposing direction - ie that we continue to overstimulate (both monetary and fiscal) which may be just as damaging.
by Independent_Observer | 19th Sep 24, 10:02am
I’m on th fence as to whether it is more like the 70’s/80’s or the late 1920’s.
you literally just posted this on the breakfast briefing thread in reply to K.W’s comment about previous stock market crashes…not to mention all the other posts where you’ve repeatedly mentioned a 1920’s “style” crash. You’ve repeatedly prefaced every post with “I could be wrong” but then proceed to post your doom theory 20 times a week, it’s no different to financial gurus saying “this isn’t financial advice” but dive into the most high conviction rhetoric ever spun up.
For the sake of clarity for the readers can you please list what you think the rate would be for the below metrics for NZ, in 18 months:
Unemployment %:
Property prices % (-) peak to trough:
NZX or global equities % (-) from today:
unless you give some solid numbers as a prediction you’re just being vague and when what you want to happen doesn’t eventuate, you can claim that you never said things were going to be THAT bad.
Yes economic indicators are similar to those periods but this does not mean we are going to repeat these periods exactly - we are living in uncertain times but it appears you want certainty (and that certainty being your recency and confirmation bias of what has already happened to you in your own experience so far in your adult life).
I can’t give you exact metrics in 18 months time and anyone who thinks that can with any degree of certainty is a fool and is lying to you. So I’m not even going to try sorry.
I can make some numbers up and lie to you and be part of foolish discussion if that is what you deeply desire - but that would be a complete waste of time (and I know what I don’t know - do you?)
That comment wasn’t about economic indicators. It was about the “style” of previous crashes. And you have mentioned in the past about a Great Depression-like crash. So what are we talking about here ? If we’re talking severity, then severity would need to be measured through metrics.
I’m not asking for certainty about anything, all I asked for was a simple prediction on what those metrics might be if you had to take a guess, I don’t think that’s a foolish at all, rather, what is foolish is writing paragraphs of doom theory filled with insinuations and not having any quantifiable predictions to back up that rhetoric. “Something bad will probably happen” does not hold any substance, it would be great if you could elaborate on WHAT exactly could happen.
John you are not comprehending what I’m saying. I’ve just told you nobody can tell you what exactly could happen with any degree of confidence and you’ve just asked me to do what I’ve just told you is impossible (to tell you exactly what could happen!).
As I say above, I sense that you can’t handle uncertainty hence why you want to know what exactly could happen. The possibilities are open ended from a blowoff top and rising asset prices to significant further falls in asset prices - which if these wil be true is beyond my knowledge (and yours).
But you are certain that you know what the future holds - I am not. What I do now if that the bond markets have been telling us the future is looking worse than the present - but how bad - well there are too many uncertainties (including central bank and government stimulus) to determine this. Will the bond market be right again? Time will tell.
GDP per capita huge drop with people leaving New Zealand on the up and anyone who purchased property in last few years going deeper into negative equity it’s a downward spiral I have noticed fast food establishments seem to be doing ok but more and more opening everywhere only the best ones will survive. We are starting to see more bankruptcy which will cause chaos in building industry the most.
We have the wrong people in our most important positions
We are over-regulated in area's we need to grow and under-regulated in area's we need to protect.
Our banking system incentivises lending against houses and penalises lending to business and productive enterprise
We are increasingly making profitability tough for our export growth engine through Green policy.
We have erratic, and frequently high, power prices
We have a high-wage black hole 3 hours West which hoovers up our skills and leaves us short ourselves
We have high immigration from developing nations to fill low wage jobs local don't want and which is putting pressure on our infrastructure.
Agree with all of this except this bit
We are increasingly making profitability tough for our export growth engine through Green policy.
Green policy is going to be forced onto us whether we like it or not. The pressures are coming from off-shore in that international partners are increasingly demanding those standards if we want to trade with them and locally which is driven by the need to try to mitigate the worst effects of climate change on our infrastructure.
Well everyone with even half a brain and a basic understanding of economics will tell you that the best path out of a recession is to increase government spending, which is the exact opposite of what the current government has been doing. This governments continued cuts to government spending is only making the recession deeper and longer than it otherwise needs to be, and everything associated with it will also be worse than it needs to be (higher unemployment, more company collapses, lower tax receipts, etc)
Yes and it means the OCR will need to be cut more than it might have been.
So from this time next year, we will see the recommencement of the housing ponzi, which will bring a smile to the face of government as we lead up to the next election. Of course they will conceal that smile as they won’t want to ruin their fake rhetoric around housing affordability…
yeap totally, households are still being destroyed by insane cost of living increases and because so many markets in the New Zealand have become duopolies and monopolies households can't go else where for cheaper prices.
All that’s equals less money to spend on elastic categories, ie retail such as clothing, electronics, furniture, travel, eating out etc etc.
The inflation figures that they quote in the media and they use to set interest rates is so far out of reality it's just propaganda at this point.
Food prices are still increasing at double digit rates for many items, butter, olive oils, meat products, frozen items etc etc We food expenditure has double in the last 4 years and that is even with one less teenager in the house.
Wheelie Bin yet another massive increase (now $572 an annual increase of 7.5% only slightly less than last year) it was $300 just 4 years ago)
Insurance this year has been the biggest increase yet - House insurance going from 208 to 248 (it was $152 at end of 2020 and just $30 in 2008), Car insurance going from $86 to $106 even though value of car is decreasing, not looking forward contents increase yet. And because one company owns over 80% of the market there is no hope of trying to find cheaper options (I have looked believe me)
Rates - well I think everyone knows about that but yeah, wish councils would just focus on the stuff that matters like road, water, waste water etc, not wasting millions on cycle lanes in small towns no one uses, or social activities and projects (that as societies we can function without and used to before the 2000s when council start losing the plot)
The cost of eating out still continues to go up at insane rates (especially mcdonalds and does everyone remember when Fish Chips shops sold chips for cheaper than the frozen ones at the super market)
Services like Apple Music, Netflix etc continue to go up.
Oh and my favourite, electricity, steering down the barrel of at least a 35% increase in my power prices when my fixed rate for the year expires in a few months.
My pay increase this year, just 3 percent.
And we are steering down the barrel of increase transport costs as well with increases under the government transport plans etc
Mortgage Interest rates would have to go back to 2.5% to take the pressure off from the increases in every think else. Anything else and and we are still much poorer than we were 4 years ago.
The middle class is being destroyed in this country and most of the politicians don't have a clue.
Yet servicing more debt at lower interest rates won't solve any of it.
Fighting inflation/deflation but remove the major inflation component (land) means our interest rates have probably been wrong all these years.
Interesting how it became THE asset class around the same time.
Your right, but it's the only short term solution.
The long term solution is to change the stucural make up to alot of our markets. These duopolies and monopolies that have been created by both Labour and National governments over the last 20-25 years.
Also central government needs legalation to make councils run in a financial repsonible manner. Ie Feilding where I live we don't need cycle lanes with safety barriers (especiually well away from the town centre and ), it doesn't need a new libraby that is twice the size of the last one and cost well over 10 million to build etc etc
Insurance, grocery, energy etc all need restructuring.
The reason wheelie bins have become so expensive over the last few year is simply because government has decided to tax waste at an outregous amount. They seem to have this stupid idea that making people pay more for rubbish will decrease waste. It won't it just cause people to dump rubbish. It's basic common sense. If they want to get ride of waste, well first, stop bringing in so many people into the country, we can;t do it forever and second strengethen consumer laws to ensure that stuff that is made lasts longer. Everything now is design to break and be replaced, not break down and be replaced. I go through washing machine now every 2 to 3 years because they are not repairable anymore.
"They kept interest rates too low for too long"
There is an unintended consequence if the RBNZ had kept interest rates higher for longer. Some of the potential counterfactual:
1) potentially strong FX rate relative to AUD, USD, GBP, Euro, etc as these countries had lowered their interest rates. Not sure about other trading partner economies such as CNY.
2) potentially adverse consequences on exporters
3) impact on imports due to continued strong NZD?
4) potential impact on local economy and domestic demand.
Correct. Ardern will be remembered for a long time, and not for any good reasons. Destruction of the economy. That is what her legacy is (Racial division also, but that is a different matter). It takes a lot to destroy an economy, and she did it. It also takes a long time to fix it, National will be fixing it for many more years, unless there is wholesale debt forgiveness etc. People are in debt up to their eyeballs, and it is not getting any better. Debts need to be cleared before people have more disposable income. The average interest rates that people are paying on mortgages etc, is still going up because people are rolling of mortgages with Arderns fake mortgage rates and they are having roll over onto rates that are still substantially higher even though mortgage rates are dropping, and this will happen for at least the next year while the bulk of the remaining roll overs occur. This is not going to end well and nothing the new government could have done since the end of last year can/could prevent it.
It may take 6 years. Who knows. Right sizing the public service seems like a good step. Slashing and or cancelling projects that are not required is another good step. An additional 15,000 people were hired and the service provided is lower than it was originally. I get that putting 15000 people out of work is going to be tough, but it needs to be done, and will be done, how fast is another question. But maintaining the status quo and paying all these people to have a negative impact is not desirable. There is no magic wand here, contracts need to be unwound, half finished stuff ups need to be finished as quickly and as cheaply as possible. It will not be easy. It will be better than the alternative though, which is borrowing and spending into incompetent oblivion.
Slashing and or cancelling projects that are not required is another good step
Are you serious? They are committing 10% of the infrastructure budget (the whole infrastructure budget, schools, hospitals, roads, everything) on one single bit of road north of Auckland that will carry less than an Auckland arterial. They are throwing 100's of millions on re-investigating a road tunnel under the Auckland Harbour which cannot be built without completely bankrupting us. Meanwhile they have cancelled a shit load of shovel ready local projects like school crossings to help kids get to school on their own which would cost a fraction of any one of those mega roading projects. That is not fiscal responsibility. They are borrowing more that Labour did.
Tunnelled Light Rail was right to be cancelled but surface light rail is still needed and will be resurrected in a few years once the current lot are out. We'll end up paying more for less with the ferries.
How is the mass sacking of public service working out?
- Are we getting better crime statistics - no.
- Are we getting better health outcomes - no (anecdote for you, my friend is a consultant and couldn't work out why her workload had gone down over the last few months, they realised that it was because the people who book in patients had been sacked so now there is no-one sending her patients to treat.
- Are we getting less bureaucracy - maybe, hard to tell when the man in charge of reducing bureaucracy decides to do that by creating a new Ministry for Bureaucracy. And if we are getting less bureaucracy, at what price?
- Are we seeing the young and talented head off-shore in their droves as they can see austerity on the horizon here? - yes.
- And lastly does Austerity work - 100% no, proven time and time again.
... how ironic that Ardern who wrecked our natural gas industry to virtue signal her hatred of fossil fuels is now jetting back an forth across the planet ... to America , to Italy , back to America , her wedding in NZ , America again , then a second trip to Italy , before returning to Harvard ...
Nice carbon footprint there !
Lol did the govt. inflate the money supply or the Central Bank's?
What was going to happen without the Govt. spending - everyone was going to borrow the RBNZ's extra money supply?
The Market and the people had no clue. In effect they created the inflation - bidding up house and asset prices, and gouging where they could.
Maybe both should have done nothing but that's moot now. Do we really believe though, that what got us here - house price growth, speculative investment, asset price inflation, monetary policy - is the way out?
Spot on Jimbo..... but what will NZ have to endure economically for the next 12 months ?
If China tips over, NZ is toast.
Next the govt will be PAYING for wealthy immigrants to come here.
I am still very much under the impression, residential housing prices MUST not fall - AT ANY "COST"
The real fear is that property investors see their "hard earned" wealth slowly erode, as the dollar devalues with inflation and expenses increase - as today's outcome was NOT in "property always goes up" seminar back in 2014 !
So we basically have an economy held to ransom by greedy banks and property "speculators" et al,.
Then you have all the world wide economic influences out there - watch out if Wall St takes a dive, as it will take Kiwisaver with it.
All based on too much govt spending and people's voracious "self induced" appetite for debt.
I've said for years NZ is living beyond it's means.
Neither party is capable of the economic leadership required to avoid this. Recession is due to global conditions and lockdowns and I think the changes required to avoid it would be outside the neo-liberal play-book.
Labour were responsible for the lockdowns so some blame is still justified.
I think NZ has been let down by both of our main parties, both of which brought in their own pet projects to reward their supporters and both seem happy to do the easy things, but keep delaying the hard things.
We have a a massive infrastructure deficit as well as huge fundamental structural issues with the economy. If you think your precious red or blue team are capable of dealing with these, you're terribly mistaken.
A lot of people seem to forget that National bascially supported every economic & health measure Labour & NZ First did during Covid and Labour outside of covid basicaily offered nothing different to the former National Party Govt either. It would be no different now if English had been in charge then except they would have turfed out in the exact same way.
Now the current Govt seem to be just as much out of their depth and incapable of dealing with the challenges that lay ahead as the last few administrations. But hey at least they're providing some pothole vans that will roam around the country.
The sooner we stop drinking the party cool-aid and realise that they have all failed us over the last few decades, the sooner we can get onto actually fixing the real problems.
At what stage does New Zealand leave the realm of Recession and go into a Depression?
Just came back from the Sunshine Coast , massive influx of wealthy Europeans buying multi-million dollar houses leaving the UK in droves with money.... why does NZ still have a Foreign Buyer Ban?
Can't see that Foreign buyers, buying multimillion dollar homes is going to compete with first home buyers..
Just came back from the Sunshine Coast , massive influx of wealthy Europeans buying multi-million dollar houses leaving the UK in droves with money.
Heard this narrative at my water cooler too. The one narrative that seems to be dying is busloads of Chinese with suitcases of money scouring the suburbs of Aotearoa willing to pay a king's ransom for a humble abode.
"The one narrative that seems to be dying is busloads of Chinese with suitcases of money scouring the suburbs of Aotearoa willing to pay a king's ransom for a humble abode"
They're buying property in Japan. Despite population decline in Japan, prices are rising in some areas as out of town buyers outbid local residents on local incomes. For these out of town buyers, prices have fallen due to weaker FX rate.
Same in QT Arrowtown Wanaka all Canadians UK USA even John Travolta here a couple of weeks ago crowing about NZ comes alot here has a place. So just the same as Aus. Go onto a construction site here all the trades people have an accent and young usually from the countries mentioned above all trying to get NZ citizenship they love living in the Otago lake districts
"Can't see that Foreign buyers, buying multimillion dollar homes is going to compete with first home buyers."
What about the unintended consequences of that.?
The local residents who sold their property in the existing house market (e.g Queenstown, expensive suburbs in big cities), then invest their proceeds in buying multiple lower priced properties in the existing house market, thereby outbidding local residents earning local incomes (e.g Queenstown)
Get foreign buyers and non owner occupiers buying or building new builds only to create jobs and economic activity. Leave the existing house market to local resident owner occupier buyers.
So crow about how great Aus is doing with foreign buyers yet whinge about it happening here. Are you ever happy or just want to knock NZ like alot on here. Here's some figures for you 30 percent of property brought in Otago lakes is foreign brought all with a minimum 10 mil net worth. Obviously they see NZ in a better light than you or who you profess are leaving in droves. Every body down here is working all making good money alot from overseas and alot from Auckland all saying they ain't going back there.
Let's stay on the key issue and avoid distraction from the key issue.
Please tell me what you see as the intended and unintended consequences of allowing foreign buyers into the EXISTING housing market (i.e not new build market) will have on:
1) housing affordability for local residents on local incomes?
2) numbers of households requiring accommodation supplements paid by the government?
3) numbers of households requiring social housing needs?
4) number of households requiring emergency housing?
5) number of individuals that are homeless and rates of homelessness?
6) home ownership rates?
Here's a case study out of Japan: https://youtu.be/jaLBP2NPSVk
Can you provide the source for the 10 million net worth people buying 30% of the property in Otago? It would be interesting to read about. I also wonder how much time foreign buyers spend in these properties, are they just somewhere for them to park money and/or used occasionally as a holiday home?
This visa category seems to be no longer available. So is the claim about buying 30% of Otago by non residents apply to prior to July 2022, and not in 2024?
Investor 1 Resident Visa
This visa was allowed people with NZD $10 million to invest in New Zealand to apply for residence. It closed to new applicants on 28 July 2022.
https://www.immigration.govt.nz/new-zealand-visas/visas/visa/investor-p…
"So crow about how great Aus is doing with foreign buyers"
Is this what you're referring to? Incentives for foreign buyers to build or buy new builds?
This comment didn't age badly:
by Yvil 18th Sep 24, 5:25pm
"Trying to figure out exactly where interest rates are going is a bit of a head-exploder at the moment"
It's not that hard, the NZ economy is in really bad shape, and interest rates are going down faster and deeper than the RBNZ predicts
Thanks! You choose if you want to listen to the guy who said in 2021 that inflation is going to be the next big concern and advised to fix mortgages long in the 2% and who predicted the first OCR cut to occur in August 2024, 14 months in advance, or to the guy who guaranteed 10% interest rates by X-mas. Your money, your choice.
Yes I did say that reserve banks will have to increase their target inflation rate band, and I still think this will be the case. I agree JJ that inflation will be back below 3% by years end, but it will bounce back above in 2025, mark my words. Then, central banks will be unable to increase interest rates and... they will accept to live with higher inflation!
I agree JJ that inflation will be back below 3% by years end, but it will bounce back above in 2025, mark my words.
That's an interesting reckon Dr Y. However, all the data suggests that the main driver of inflation in Aotearoa has been debt servicing.
So is your reckon based around lower debt servicing costs needing to be ratcheted up?
Why?
"Didn't age badly" - it hasn't even had 24 hours to age. Shouldn't you wait until the RBNZ cuts the OCR again and/or banks cut interest rates before you can claim that? RBNZ forecast a 0.5 drop in GDP but it's 0.2 so maybe they won't cut the OCR at the next meeting?
Nobody should be surprised by this. Least of all the RBNZ (and the National Party who were asking for heads to roll at the RBNZ but that turned out to be more hot air).
Consider the OCR track here: https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/interest-rates/ocr
We've just had the longest period ever of 'peak OCR'.
And we still have it. The OCR remains seriously contractionary. (Neutral OCR = 2.75%, current OCR 5.25%, so a full 2.5% of ongoing economic contraction.)
Can someone tell me why the RBNZ still needs to hammer economic activity so hard?
Officially average property price in Brisbane is now more expensive than Melbourne!
The new Queenwhalf entertainment complex in Brisbane opened two weeks ago was fab and a real rival to Melbourne Southbank area!!
The best is that all public transport fares in Brisbane is now 50c flat - you can go by train from noosa to Gold Coast for just 50c!!!!!
How much will property rates increase to cover that virtue signalling?...oh, wait...
https://www.reiq.com/resources/media-releases/gold-coast-apartment-owne…
Where's Maiki Sherman when you need her !
... " woooo hoooo , strap yourself in New Zealand ... we're in a triple dip recession ... we are leading the world in that , fantastic ... well ahead of the pack ...
Thankyou Grant Robertson , thankyou Adrian Orr ... freaking orrsome ... Grant , the lamingtons are on me ! " ....
Talking with a mate whose workplace, normally considered one of the most secure jobs you could think of, is already planning big haircuts for FY2025/2026, after a tough year of the same. Makes you wonder how many other spots are in the same boat? It's like a doom loop, right? One person's spending cuts become another's income loss, leading to more cuts, less demand, and more liquidations. It's a vicious cycle
I just went for a short walk and saw many new state new houses and a new big school block that were built under Labour. They did actually manage to get quite a bit done. I am trying to think of anything National have built or started? If you exclude a handful of roads, what exactly are they doing with our tax money?
What are you on about. I use Auckland light rail, the Auckland Harbour cycle bridge and my KiwiBuild house is powered by Lake Onslow pumped Hydro. Labour spend untold money and these and many other worthwhile, successful and on budget projects......oh wait, none of these things ever happened, and the money also seems to have gone, wasted on endless meetings and general incompetence.
Roads are important. Labour didn't think so, so they left them in ruins. Now they have to be fixed (expensive), and new roading (delayed/cancelled) now needs to be done (also expensive). Who would have thought freighting things around the country on bicycles would never work. At least at the end we will have something a) Physical, b) That will last for years, and c) Provide an economic return rather than standing around guessing where all the money went from the last term.
Yeah nice idea. The ferries were a good idea, but they should have planned to buy some that did not require 8-10 x the cost on land based infrastructure. That turned the whole thing into yet another brain dead idea and it was rightly cancelled. The media tried to hold their end up and blame the age of the ferries when one grounded due to the incompetence of the captain, but that didn’t age well.
Roads are important. Labour didn't think so, so they left them in ruins
100% incorrect. The maintenance issues on our roads were a direct consequence of National's RONS, the money that would have been used for maintenance was allocated to construction of new assets. The maintenance budget was never increased. Labour had to top up increasingly from the Crown fund. National are doing the same and will have to top up even more if they ever build their new mega-roads.
It's great you're interested din transport and I encourage you to learn more. "Labour bad, roads good" is nice and easy but also really intellectually lazy and essentially wrong. It's pretty complex but not beyond the realms of an AverageJoe to understand but you need to put in the work and listen to people who actually know what they're talking about not just some stupid f****ng culture narrative soundbite.
Good one National. Idiots.
The ol' political blame game. I'm no fan of the wingnuts either. But expecting them to be able to turn the economic fortunes on a dime is unrealistic. Just as it probably was for Team Ardern to build 100,000 houses and rid of child poverty.
Yep. Some people think National have come into power and accidentally switched the recession on switch, and from one day to the other, disaster. Its laughably naive. The reality this process started a few years ago, at the end of Labour's first term. Many people with actual financial literacy point to the fact that this would happen, and here we are.
Given that since the 80's government policy is effectively just bribing certain voter blocs - whether it be tax cuts or tax transfers - without offering anything meaningful, the blame lies squarely with the citizens.
And politics over the same time frame has just been a blame game - representative of the people?
No, some are just business cycle recessions where cash flows decrease.
Balance sheet recessions are driven by high levels of private sector debt, and the need or desire of people to put all surplus cash into reducing debt.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balance_sheet_recession#:~:text=6%20Ref….
Sarcasm not needed…I honestly think they’ll revert to this out of panic at some point next year…watch the lending restrictions ease (or just be removed) and interest rates drop…while I don’t think it will be anywhere near as effective…but sh*t, I 100% reckon they’ll give ole faithful another crack 🤦🏻♂️😂
Yes yes, dang labour. Spent money into the economy so that there is not enough money in the economy.
And before "ARDERN CAUSED INFLATION" - inflation was mostly driven by supply side factors initially, then high cost of debt locally after that. A lot of looking at RBNZ here...
So many "labur dun it" on this thread, it's unreal. Yes Labour made some abysmal spending choices, but as far as that goes towards creating a recession (that is also possibly about to happen in the US - the largest economy in the west), you gotta be kidding.
Oh wait, this just in from the NY Times; Grant spent NZ$10b a few years ago and now the US economy might tip over!
It's this type of talk that made up the minds of quite a few of my young colleagues who have left over the last year and half.
They couldn't stomach the clueless angry ranty old white guy whinge any longer. Now the angry old white guys got what they wanted and are still complaining because their "common sense" "anti-woke" solutions don't appear to be working ...
The sooner this Boomer generation dies off the better for the country and the world.
Who’s to say all the progressive 20 somethings won’t be just like the boomers one day? It’s very common for people who are progressive in their youth to then become conservative as they age.
In case you don’t know your history - the boomers, in their youth, fought for civil rights, greater gender equality, against the Vietnam War, fought against nuclear armageddon etc.
I am frankly sick of both sides in this ‘culture war’.
And sick of lazy sloganeering. Including the lambasting of ‘boomers’, as if a whole generation of people hold the same views
signed: a Generation X’er
You are so right. I laugh when I hear lefties say that once all the oldies die, the lefties will take over. Once people wake up they become more conservative when they get older. So actually what will happen with an aging population is that the conservative majority will actually increase. These guys are hopeless at history…and math.
The reason this country's in the fix it is, is because of 6 years of free-for-all, big spending socialists. Comrade Ardern et. al.
They spent billions on the most worthless, useless, fruitless, unprofitable projects anyone can imagine...assisted by the absurd lockdown, which destroyed the economy, wrecked tourism, almost sent Air NZ into receivership, cost billions, resulted in thousands of business insolvencies, and caused economic loss to about half of all NZers.
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